Scenario Based Strategy – Navigate the Future

Citation

Sheila Moorcroft (2015), "Scenario Based Strategy – Navigate the Future", Foresight, Vol. 17 No. 5, pp. 542-542. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-05-2015-0028

Organisations need to expand their horizons, look to the future and decide what their best options are; not just to survive, but to flourish. They need to move from reactive problem-solving to anticipatory decision-making. That is the message of the English translation of Paul de Ruijter’s book.

Scenarios are his recommended mechanism, effective strategic direction his aim. He rightly emphasises that scenarios are not an end in themselves, but a means to an end, and draws on many years’ experience of applying scenarios to strategy development and decision-making to illustrate the point. He takes the reader through the stages of the scenario process step-by-step with a chapter on each one, linking them to different elements of strategy development. A simple diagram illustrates how the process fits together and indicates where the reader is as we move from mission to vision, via trends, scenarios and options; he then moves on to the critical elements of how to get to the future and how to turn ideas into action. Each chapter ends with a succinct set of key points to send readers on their way.

The book is also rich with examples. Some are well-known, such as Shell’s use of scenarios to explore an oil crisis and then surviving the 1973 oil shock better than most. Others are less well-known, such as Rabobank picking up signals of emerging financial problems and using scenarios to help the organisation flourish despite the 2008 financial crisis, or the CEO of an un-named organisation disregarding the messages of his management’s scenarios about the 3G licence auction and making an unnecessary and costly investment.

If I had one criticism of the book, it is that it implies that scenarios are only for large organisations and need significant time and investment. They aren’t and they don’t. The process can be scaled down and applied successfully in many different contexts. That said, I wholeheartedly endorse the book as a practical, well-informed reminder that scenarios are an important tool in creating strategic agility and helping organisations capitalise on change.

About the author

Sheila Moorcroft is the Director of Realising Your Future and has many years’ experience of horizons scanning and scenarios for strategy development. Sheila Moorcroft can be contacted at: sheila@realisingyourfuture.co.uk