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Recently, star variables and the post-crisis nature of cyclical fluctuations have attracted a great deal of interest. In this chapter, the authors investigate different methods of assessing business cycles (BCs) for the European Union in general and the euro area in particular. First, the authors conduct a Monte Carlo (MC) experiment using a broad spectrum of univariate trend-cycle decomposition methods. The simulation aims to examine the ability of the analysed methods to find the observed simulated cycle with structural properties similar to actual macroeconomic data. For the simulation, the authors used the structural model’s parameters calibrated to the euro area’s real gross domestic product (GDP) and unemployment rate. The simulation outcomes indicate the sufficient composition of the suite of models (SoM) consisting of popular Hodrick–Prescott, Christiano–Fitzgerald and structural trend-cycle-seasonal filters, then used for the real application. The authors find that: (i) there is a high level of model uncertainty in comparing the estimates; (ii) growth rate (acceleration) cycles have often the worst performances, but they could be useful as early-warning predictors of turning points in growth and BCs; and (iii) the best-performing MC approaches provide a reasonable combination as the SoM. When swings last less time and/or are smaller, it is easier to pick a good alternative method to the suite to capture the BC for real GDP. Second, the authors estimate the BCs for real GDP and unemployment data varying from 1995Q1 to 2020Q4 (GDP) or 2020Q3 (unemployment), ending up with 28 cycles per country. This analysis also confirms that the BCs of euro area members are quite synchronized with the aggregate euro area. Some major differences can be found, however, especially in the case of periphery and new member states, with the latter improving in terms of coherency after the global financial crisis. The German cycles are among the cyclical movements least synchronized with the aggregate euro area.

Decision makers and authorities largely ignore cycling when conceptualising and developing programmes to support older mobility and therefore, unsurprisingly, levels of cycling in the United Kingdom are low compared to other northern European nations. Cycling has the potential to play an important role in the active ageing agenda and provide older citizens with a form of independent mobility that enhances personal health and wellbeing. The chapter provides evidence of the important role cycling does and could play in older people’s mobility and outlines ways in which older cycling could be supported and promoted.

Campaign contributions are typically seen as a strategic investment for firms; recent empirical evidence, however, has shown few connections between firms’ contributions and regulatory or performance improvements, prompting researchers to explore agency-based explanations for corporate politics. By studying intrafirm campaign contributions of CEOs and political action committees (PACs), we investigate two hypotheses related to public politics and demonstrate that strategic and agency-based motivations may hold simultaneously. Exploiting transaction-level data, with over 6.8 million observations, we show that (i) when PACs give to specific candidates, executives give to the same candidates, especially those who are strategically important to the firm; and (ii) when executives give to candidates who are not strategically important, PACs give to the same candidates potentially due to agency problems within the firm.

All forms of organization have governance requirements and procedures. Often, these are quite similar despite the form and mission of the organization in question. They only consider governance in the organization environment and rarely look beyond their immediate stakeholders. In many corporations, the immediate stakeholders are even considered to be the investors and only those regardless of the apparency of other close stakeholders such as workers, customers, suppliers, authorities, and interest groups or non-governmental organizations. Even corporations with such narrow views and organizations with a broader stakeholder view are relatively unrealistic and are inappropriate in the modern global world, which we inhabit. Organizations of any form and size need to recognize both the need to consider radical changes in the modern global environment and the opportunities and possibilities presented by the current environment. Therefore, this chapter takes a broad approach and considers governance requirements in the modern world seen from a global perspective for all forms of organization. With global perspective, organizational governance is, here, called New Governance, and it includes the idea, that even the smallest decision can have a dramatic social, economic, or geopolitical impact in other parts of the world. The idea of New Governance is to put on the global lenses when making decisions to consider the potential effect – positive as well as negative – on the local as well as the global perspective, even on the unknown future and on future generations to come. Some may call this sustainable governance, but in this chapter, it is embedded in the New Governance as a concept, which can be nothing else but sustainable in its core idea. The future requirements for New Governance in any kind of organization are discussed, as the relationship between organizations and its global and future stakeholders, and how they form these requirements.

“The unexamined life is not worth living,” said Socrates. That is, without critically inquiring into the knowledge of life, which is well-being and valuable, life is not worth living. Critical thinking questions existing theories and their unexamined and obsessive assumptions and generalizations, constraints, and the so-called “best” practices of the prevailing system of management and tries to replace them with more valid assumptions and generalizations that uphold the dignity, uniqueness, and inalienable rights of every individual and the community. In our diverse and pluralistic cultural environment, the promise of a truly generative dialogue among occidental (western) and oriental (eastern) cultures and civilizations holds great hope for the future. Critical thinking can facilitate this dialogue such that all of us have a meaningful place in this universe. In this chapter, we explore introductory working definitions of critical thinking so that we can early enough understand its demanding domains, moral calls, and ramifications in its current critical applications. Specifically, in Part I, we examine the structured layers of our thinking and reasoning to dismantle them progressively, and in Part II, in support of our claims, we explore complexity and chaos theories as a new resource for critical thinking.

Introduction: The Great Financial Crisis of 2008 highlighted the importance of financial cycle fluctuations. While the regulatory response was to mandate higher bank capital requirements during the financial cycle upswing, academic research focussed on identifying the best performing early warning indicators to forecast financial cycle fluctuations that have proven to be often unrelated to business cycle changes. To safeguard the global financial system against the financial cycle fluctuations, Basel Committee of Banking Supervisors, based on first strands of empirical evidence, proposed the credit-to-GDP gap as the headline indicator tied to the countercyclical capital buffer. However, later research on this indicator identified certain concerns, among them subpar performance for economies with short available data series.

Aim of the Study: To this end this study aims to analyse various financial cycle indicators from a unique perspective of their potential viability under limited historical data availability.

Methods: For this purpose, a meta-study of existing research is carried out as well as an empirical study to compare performance of certain indicators for the sample of six countries in the Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European region, where long data series are not available.

Main Findings: It was found that certain approaches, among them calculation of raw credit growth rate and application of Hamilton filter, can supplement or possibly even outperform the Basel credit-to-GDP gap indicator under limited data availability.

Conclusion: Author concludes that for limited time series Basel credit-to-GDP gap can be potentially outperformed by other indicators and further research in this currently under-studied field is warranted.

Originality of the Paper: By using various financial cycle indicators that already proven their early warning prediction powers from previous research, this study focusses on their potential viability under limited historical data availability. Respective findings might be appreciated for supplementing policy-makers’ toolkits as complementary indicators in cases where there is no available long time series for financial cycle estimation, for example, such as countries that entered market economies relatively late.

One crucial but sometimes overlooked fact regarding the difference between observation in the cross-section and observation over time must be stated before proceeding further. Tempting though it is to draw conclusions about the dynamics of a process from cross-sectional observations taken as a snapshot of that process, it is a fallacious practice except under a very precise condition that is highly unlikely to obtain in processes of interest to the social scientist. That condition is known as ergodicity.