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In recent years, with the gradual differentiation of economic and financial cycles, it has been increasingly difficult for monetary policies to remain balanced in stabilizing both economy and finance. Taking the period of 1999–2017 as a sample, the purpose of this paper is to find whether the synergy between the growth cycle and the price cycle is constantly improving in the economic cycle is more appropriate.

The key to stabilizing the economic cycle lies in the monetary policy and it should abandon the goal of boosting growth in a timely manner and turn into the goal of maintaining steady growth. At present, quantitative monetary policy is still more effective than price-oriented monetary policy in smoothing the economic cycle.

The impact of quantitative regulation on the financial cycle is more neutral, whereas price regulation will increase the volatility of price and financial cycles in the course of smoothing the growth cycle. In view of the continuous differentiation between the economic and financial cycles, it is realistic and reasonable to accelerate the establishment of a sound dual-pillar regulatory framework of “monetary policy and macro-prudential policy.”

The macro-prudential policy is specially used to smooth the financial cycle, so as to reduce the burden and increase the efficiency of the monetary policy on regulating economic cycle. Moreover, the transformation of monetary policy to price-oriented regulation must keep pace with the construction of the dual-pillar regulation framework and complement each other to prevent undesirable consequences in the financial sector. On the other hand, monetary policy still needs to rely on quantitative regulation in the future. The research in this paper also provides a new perspective for understanding the internal and external reform of China’s monetary policy in recent years.

This paper aims to explore the impact of cycle superposition on bank liquidity risk under different levels of financial openness so that banks can better manage their liquidity risk. Meanwhile, it can also provide some ideas for banks in other emerging economies to better cope with the shocks of the global financial cycle.

Employing the monthly data of 16 commercial banks in China from 2005 to 2021 and based on the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility (TVP-SV-VAR) model, the authors first examine whether the cycle superposition can magnify the impact of China's financial cycle on bank liquidity risk. Subsequently, the authors investigate the impact of different levels of financial openness on cycle superposition amplification. Finally, the shock of the financial cycle of the world's major economies on the liquidity risk of Chinese banks is also empirically analyzed.

Cycle superposition can magnify the impact of China's financial cycle on bank liquidity risk. However, there are significant differences under different levels of financial openness. Compared with low financial openness, in the period of high financial openness, the magnifying effect of cycle superposition is strengthened in the short term but obviously weakened in the long run. In addition, the authors' findings also demonstrate that although the United States is the main shock country, the influence of other developed economies, such as Japan and Eurozone countries, cannot be ignored.

Firstly, the cycle superposition index is constructed. Secondly, the authors supplement the literature by providing evidence that the association between cycle superposition and bank liquidity risk also depends on financial openness. Finally, the dominant countries of the global financial cycle have been rejudged.

This chapter considers financial instability as a phenomenon endogenous to the functioning of capitalism. Consequently, it seeks to identify the main sources and different forms of the latter in financialised capitalism. According to Keynes, capital assets prices are conceived as the expression of financial conventions. It is, therefore, important to distinguish between the returns expected by company directors, bankers, holders of equity titles, risk-takers and, in contrast, risk-averse holders of debt securities. Minsky enriches the analysis by attributing a decisive role to the leverage effect, at the origin of an accumulation of financial weaknesses in the balance sheets of non-financial agents during the expansion phases preceding financial crises. Regulation theory leads to the introduction of a distinction between the financial accelerator and the leverage effect. The first establishes a procyclical relationship at the macroeconomic level between the price of capital assets and the debt ratio of non-financial agents; the second acts at the microeconomic level through shareholder corporate governance, which determines the institutional conditions inciting firm directors to integrate shareholder expectations into their return forecasts. The empirical analysis identifies three forms of financial instability in financialised capitalism: the long-term financial cycle governed by the debt ratio of non-financial agents; the business cycle governed by the impact of stock prices on investment; and the short-term or even very short-term expected return revisions of financial actors. Its originality is to show that these three forms of instability acquire different characteristics depending on the national economy considered.

This study examines the relationship between economic fluctuations and financial distress in the US agricultural sector, which is associated with a large degree of financial instability.

The authors developed a parsimonious model of economic fluctuations in the US agricultural sector. The authors used statistical filter methods to identify the co-movement in cyclical fluctuations in real, cumulative growth rates in farm real estate values, farm sector debt and leverage.

The proposed model closely approximated the financial evolution of the US agricultural sector between 1960 and 2018. In addition, the authors proved that the proposed model is an early warning indicator of farm loan delinquencies and farm bankruptcies.

This study exploits recent advances in economic theory and empirical macroeconomic modeling to develop a model that is a robust predictor of financial distress in the agricultural sector. Further, the authors demonstrate that the policy interventions following the 1980s farm financial crisis demonstrate the likely long-run economic response to the policies enacted following the 2008 financial crisis.

This paper aims to examine the relationship between commercial bank lending and business cycle in South Africa. This paper attempts to know whether commercial bank lending in South Africa is procyclical.

The model assumed that the lending behaviour is related to the business cycle. In this study, vector error correction model (VECM) is used to capture the relationship between bank lending and business cycle to accurately elicit the macroeconomic long-run relationship between business cycle and bank lending, as some banks might slow down bank lending due to some idiosyncratic factors that are not related to the downturn in the economy. This paper uses data from South African Reserve Bank for the period of 1990-2015 using VECM to understand the extent to which business cycle fluctuation can affect credit crunch in the financial system. The Johansen cointegration approach is used to ascertain whether there is indeed a long-run co-movement between credit growth and business cycle.

Results from the VECM show that there are significant linkages among the variables, especially between credit to gross domestic product (GDP) and business cycle. The influence of business cycle is seen vividly after a period of four to five years, where business cycle explains 20 per cent of the variation in the credit to GDP. South African banks tend to change their lending behaviour during upturns and downturns. This result further confirms the assertion in theory that credit follows business cycle and can amplify credit crunch. The result shows that in the long run, fluctuations in the business cycle can influence the credit growth in South Africa.

The impulse analysis result shows that the impact of business cycle shock is very persistent and lasting. This also demonstrates that the shocks to the business cycle result have a persistent and long-lasting impact on credit. This study finds that commercial bank lending in South Africa is procyclical. It is suggested that the South African economy needs forward-looking policies that will mitigate the flow of credit to the real sector and at the same time ensure financial stability.

Most research papers rarely distinguish between the demand side and supply side of credit procyclicality. This report is presented to develop an econometric model that will examine demand side procyclicality. This study adopts more realistic and novel methods that will help in explaining the relationship between bank lending and business cycle in South Africa, especially after the global financial crisis. This report is presented with a concise and detailed analysis and interpretation.

Considering the sectoral balance approach of Godley, and focusing only on the two main components of the private sector balance for the US economy (household and non‐financial corporate balance), the purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between these two sectors, the financial variables, and economic cycle. In particular, the paper considers all these relationships endogenously.

The authors estimate a structural VAR model between household and (non‐financial) corporate financial balances, financial markets, and economic cycle and the authors perform an impulse response analysis. All the variables are expressed as cyclical components applying the Hodrick‐Prescott filter.

The main result is that: household and corporate balances react to financial markets in the way the authors expected and discussed; the economic cycle influences the two financial balances; the corporate balance has a positive impact on the cycle; the economic cycle and financial balances influence the financial variables. In particular, the point that shows that the corporate balance has a positive impact on the cycle shows that the corporate balance is a leading component of the cycle as suggested by Casadio and Paradiso and accords with Minsky's theory of financial instability.

The analysis does not include the foreign sector (current‐account balance).

This study is an important step forward with respect to the two main contributions in literature which use this approach: the Levy Institute macroeconomic team and Goldman Sachs. Methodologically their models are based on assumptions (such as exogeneity or market clearing price mechanism for the financial markets) that the authors overcome considering all the relationships studied in an endogenous manner.

This chapter sheds new light on the linkages between stock market fluctuations and business cycles in Asia. It shows that at cyclical frequencies stock markets lead business cycles by six months on average. China, Korea, and Taiwan constitute exceptions, as their real and stock market cycles are contemporaneously synchronized. The low level of maturity of these markets offers a potential explanation of this outcome. Furthermore, we find that the linkage also holds during phases of cyclical upswing and downturn, with the exception of China, where the financial market lags behind industrial production during expansions. Finally, for most of the countries (except Thailand and Malaysia), the linkage is also robust to the presence of financial crises.

To the best of our knowledge, no study has examined credit cycle synchronizations in the context of emerging economies. Studying the credit cycles synchronization across BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries is crucial given the magnitude of trade and financial integration among member counties. The enormity of the trade and financial linkages among BRICS countries and growth spillovers from emerging economies to advanced and low-income countries provide the rationale and motivation to study the synchronization of credit cycles across BRICS.

The study investigates the credit cycles coherence across BRICS economies from 1996Q2 to 2020Q4. The synchronization analysis is done using the noval wavelet approach. The analysis examines not only the coherence but also the extent of credit cycle synchronization that varies across frequencies and over time among different pairs of nations.

The authors find heterogeneity in the credit cycles' synchronization among the member nations. China and India are very much in sync with the other BRICS countries. China's high-frequency credit cycle mostly leads the other countries' credit cycles before the global financial crisis and shows a mix of lead/lag relationships post-financial crisis. Interestingly, most of the time, India's low-frequency credit cycles lead the member countries' credit cycles, and Brazil's low frequency credit cycle lag behind the other BRICS countries' credit cycles, except for Russia. The results are crucial from the macroprudential policymaker's perspective.

The empirical design is applicable to a similar set of countries and may not directly fit each emerging economy.

The findings will help understand the marked deepening of trade, technology, investment and financial interdependence across the world. BRICS acronym requires no introduction, but such analysis may help understand the interaction at the monetary policy level.

This is the first study that highlights the need to understand the credit variable interactions for BRICS nations.

The purpose of this paper is to study synchronization in stock index cycles across 82 countries and the linkage between macroeconomic and financial integration and stock market synchronization.

The author document the synchronization structure of the world equity index cycles and its evolution over time. The author examine the explanatory power of various economic and financial variables on cycle comovements.

Trade openness, capital openness, and an EU membership contribute to higher stock index cycle synchronization. Additionally, the macroeconomic and financial variables have asymmetric impacts on countries of different development levels.

The author is the first to thoroughly chronicle the turning points, i.e., bear and bull regimes, of world equity indexes and empirically examine determinants of their cyclical comovement across nations.

This paper aims to study the formation and amplification mechanism of the financial crisis and business cycle and also discuss the related optimal rules for the central bank and government.

This study is developed basically on a simple financial business cycle model by embedding credit constrains into the DSGE model.

The model in this paper puts forward an explanation for the mechanism of cycles' formation. Using this it finds that: the financial lever in modern economy is the offender of the USA financial crisis, which created the cycles and amplified it into the crisis when the financial lever multiple was increased to much greater levels, and that the traditional policy rule is not good enough for a long running growth process.

The findings in this study suggest that to keep the financial lever multiple under a safe level and to reform the policy rule to be good enough for a long run growth process is necessary.

According to the model's principle, the paper claims that: the development of the financial and credit markets during recent years has increased the volatility of the economic cycle – excessive credit abuse has become the root cause of the instability of the economy system; the proportion of the mortgage loan and similar financial products in the economy should be controlled strictly; it is necessary to recheck the traditional standpoint of the monetary policy. Rule policy by the Keynesian model exists as a short‐term problem, thus it is not sufficient to study the questions related to technological shocks.

The model in this paper explains well the mechanism of cycles and crisis' formation. The findings under the modeling economy give a safe level for financial lever multiples for the first time. The financial business cycle model being used in studying the Chinese economy is a pioneering and exploratory experiment.