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The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of bank mergers on systemic and systematic risks on the relative merits of product and market diversification strategies. It also observes determinants of M&A deals criteria, product and market diversification positioning, crisis threshold and other regulatory and market factors.

This research examines the impact and association between merger announcements and regulatory reforms at bank and system levels by investigating the impact of various bank consolidation strategies on firms’ risks. We estimate beta(s) as an index of financial institutions’ systematic risk. We then develop an index of the estimated equity value loss as the long-rum marginal expected shortfall (LRMES). LRMES contributes to compute systemic risk (SRISK) contribution of these firms, which is the capital that a firm is expected to need if we have another financial crisis.

Large acquiring banks decrease systemic risk contribution in cross-border M&As with a non-bank financial institution, and witness profitability (ROA) gains, supporting geographic diversification stability. Capital requirements, activity restrictions and bank concentration increase systemic risk contribution in national mergers. Bank mergers with investment FIs targets enhance productivity but impair technical efficiency, contrary to bank-real estate deals where technical efficiency change accompanied lower systemic risk contribution.

Financial institutions are recommended to avoid trapped capital and liquidity by efficiently using local balance sheet and strengthening them via implementing models that clearly set diversification and netting benefits to determine capital reserves and to drive capital efficiency through the clarity on product–activity–geography diversification and focus. This contributes to successful ringfencing, decreases compliance costs and maximises returns and minimises several risks including systemic risk.

Policy implications: the adversative properties of bank mergers in respect of systemic risk require strict and innovative monitoring of bank mergers from the bidding level by both acquirers and targets and regulators and competition supervisory bodies. Moreover, emphasis on regulators/governments intervention and role, as it provides a stabilising factor of the markets and consecutively lower systemic risk even if the systematic idiosyncratic risk contribution was significant. However, such roles have to be well planned and scaled to avoid providing motives for banks to seek too-big-too-fail or too-big-to-discipline status.

This research contributes to the renewing regulatory debate on banks sustainable structures by examining the risk effect of bank diversification versus focus. The authors aim to address the multidimensional impacts and risks inherent to M&A deals, by examining the extent of the interconnectedness of M&A and its implications within and beyond the banking sector.

Introduction: The Great Financial Crisis of 2008 highlighted the importance of financial cycle fluctuations. While the regulatory response was to mandate higher bank capital requirements during the financial cycle upswing, academic research focussed on identifying the best performing early warning indicators to forecast financial cycle fluctuations that have proven to be often unrelated to business cycle changes. To safeguard the global financial system against the financial cycle fluctuations, Basel Committee of Banking Supervisors, based on first strands of empirical evidence, proposed the credit-to-GDP gap as the headline indicator tied to the countercyclical capital buffer. However, later research on this indicator identified certain concerns, among them subpar performance for economies with short available data series.

Aim of the Study: To this end this study aims to analyse various financial cycle indicators from a unique perspective of their potential viability under limited historical data availability.

Methods: For this purpose, a meta-study of existing research is carried out as well as an empirical study to compare performance of certain indicators for the sample of six countries in the Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European region, where long data series are not available.

Main Findings: It was found that certain approaches, among them calculation of raw credit growth rate and application of Hamilton filter, can supplement or possibly even outperform the Basel credit-to-GDP gap indicator under limited data availability.

Conclusion: Author concludes that for limited time series Basel credit-to-GDP gap can be potentially outperformed by other indicators and further research in this currently under-studied field is warranted.

Originality of the Paper: By using various financial cycle indicators that already proven their early warning prediction powers from previous research, this study focusses on their potential viability under limited historical data availability. Respective findings might be appreciated for supplementing policy-makers’ toolkits as complementary indicators in cases where there is no available long time series for financial cycle estimation, for example, such as countries that entered market economies relatively late.

This paper aims to complement to standard Basel countercyclical capital buffer framework by suggesting additional measures for credit gaps that can be used to measure the financial cycle and to decide on countercyclical capital buffers for banks.

The paper concentrates on European Union countries with the data starting from 1970. The authors check whether the newly suggested buffers are in place and sizable before financial distress periods.

The new measures are: the change in the credit-to-GDP ratio over two years; the growth in credit compared to the eight-year moving average of growth in nominal GDP over two years; the growth in credit compared to annual nominal growth of 5% over two years; and growth in credit relative to the nominal GDP trend value over two years. They behave similarly to the gaps calculated with the standard Basel one-sided Hodrick–Prescott filter in long samples.

The main contribution of the paper is to suggest new alternative measures of credit cycles that can be used in short samples and in case of structural breaks. New measures correlate well with actual countercyclical capital buffers in place in 2018.

Financial crises (FC) remain a global threat to the financial stability of financial institutions and international bank regulatory capital requirement (IBRCR) by the Committee on Banking Supervision provides mechanism for curbing the adverse effect of FC on financial stability. Hence, the purpose of this study is to provide, evidence on how IBRCR tones down the adverse FC effects on bank financial stability (BFS).

The study uses 102 economies between 2006 and 2016 in a two-step dynamic generalized method of moments model.

The results show that while FC and IBRCR negatively and positively impact BFS, respectively, it is observed that under the increasing presence of IBRCR, the negative effect of FC on BFS declines. Additionally, the results show that economies that maintain minimum IBRCR above 10.5% recommended by BASEL III are able to reinforce a significant reduction in the negative effect of FC on BFS.

These findings imply that in as much as financial crisis is injurious to BFS, regulators and policymakers can rely on IBRCR to avert the injurious effects of FC on BFS. Clearly, while IBRCR is necessary for reinforcing BFS through FC, bank managers who maintain IBRCR above the recommended 10.5% stands a better chance to taming the avert effect of FC on BFS. Additionally, economies that have not full adopted the BASEL minimum capital requirement may have to do so given its potential of dampening the adverse effect of FC on BFS.

The study presents an international perspective of how BASEL capital requirements can help tame global financial crisis using a global sample of 102 economies.

The purpose of this paper is to analyse regulatory reform in the wake of the financial crisis of 2007‐2008.

The paper proposes a framework for regulatory reform that begins with the observation that financial manias and panics cannot be legislated away, and may be an unavoidable aspect of modern capitalism.

Financial crises are unavoidable when hardwired human behavior – fear and greed, or “animal spirits” – is combined with free enterprise, and cannot be legislated or regulated away. Like hurricanes and other forces of nature, market bubbles, and crashes cannot be entirely eliminated, but their most destructive consequences can be greatly mitigated with proper preparation. In fact, the most damaging effects of financial crisis come not from loss of wealth, but rather from those who are unprepared for such losses and panic in response. This perspective has several implications for the types of regulatory reform needed in the wake of the financial crisis of 2007‐2008, all centered around the need for greater transparency, improved measures of systemic risk, more adaptive regulations, including counter‐cyclical leverage constraints, and more emphasis on financial literacy starting in high school, including certifications for expertise in financial engineering for the senior management and directors of all financial institutions.

The paper stresses how we must resist the temptation to react too hastily to market events, and deliberate thoughtfully and broadly, instead, craft new regulations for the financial system of the twenty‐first century. Financial markets do not need more regulation; they need smarter and more effective regulation.

Purpose – To discuss, from the perspective of developing countries, recent proposals for reforming international standards for bank capital requirements.

Methodology/approach – After evaluating, from the viewpoint of developing countries, the effectiveness of capital requirements reforms and progress in implementing existing regulatory accords, the chapter discusses the procyclical effects of Basel regimes, and suggests a reform proposal.

Findings – Minimum bank capital requirements proposals in developing countries should be complemented by the adoption of an incremental, size-based leverage ratio.

Originality/value of chapter – This chapter contributes to enlarge the academic and policy debate related to bank capital regulation, with a particular focus on the situation of developing countries.

Financial stability has become a focal point for central banks since the global financial crisis. However, the optimal mix between monetary and financial stability policies remains unclear. In this study, the “soft” approach to such policy mix was tested – how often monetary policy (in inflation reports) analyses financial stability issues. This paper aims to discuss the aforementioned objective.

A total of 648 inflation reports published by 11 central banks from post-communist countries in 1998-2019 were reviewed using a text-mining method.

Results show that financial stability topics (mainly cyclical aspects of systemic risk) on average account for only 2%of inflation reports’ content. Although this share has grown somewhat since the global financial crisis (in CZ, HU and PL), it still remains at a low level. Thus, not enough evidence was found on the use of a “soft” policy mix in post-communist countries.

Given the strong interactions between price and financial stability, this paper emphasizes the need to increase the attention of monetary policymakers to financial stability issues.

The study combines two research areas, i.e. monetary policy and modern text mining techniques on a sample of post-communist countries, something which to the best of the authors’ knowledge has not been sufficiently explored in the literature before.