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This study aims to explore and empirically test variables influencing material delivery schedule inaccuracies?

A mixed-method case approach is applied. Explanatory variables are identified from the literature and explored in a qualitative analysis at an automotive original equipment manufacturer. Using logistic regression and random forest classification models, quantitative data (historical schedule transactions and internal data) enables the testing of the predictive difference of variables under various planning horizons and inaccuracy levels.

The effects on delivery schedule inaccuracies are contingent on a decoupling point, and a variable may have a combined amplifying (complexity generating) and stabilizing (complexity absorbing) moderating effect. Product complexity variables are significant regardless of the time horizon, and the item’s order life cycle is a significant variable with predictive differences that vary. Decoupling management is identified as a mechanism for generating complexity absorption capabilities contributing to delivery schedule accuracy.

The findings provide guidelines for exploring and finding patterns in specific variables to improve material delivery schedule inaccuracies and input into predictive forecasting models.

The findings contribute to explaining material delivery schedule variations, identifying potential root causes and moderators, empirically testing and validating effects and conceptualizing features that cause and moderate inaccuracies in relation to decoupling management and complexity theory literature?

Conflict and violence are the main drivers of globally escalating humanitarian needs. Local grassroots initiatives are pivotal in distributing humanitarian supplies in the acute response phase until more established humanitarian aid organizations can enter. Nevertheless, scant research exists regarding the role of grassroots associations in providing humanitarian assistance during a military conflict. The purpose of this paper is to understand the role of grassroots associations and identify important themes for effective operations.

This paper adopts a case-study approach of three Ukrainian grassroots associations that began operating in the immediate days of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The findings are based on analyzing primary sources, including interviews with Ukrainian volunteers, and are supported by secondary sources.

Grassroots associations have local contacts and a contextual understanding of population needs and can respond more rapidly and effectively than large intergovernmental agencies. Four critical themes regarding the operations of grassroots associations emerged: information management, inventory management, coordination and performance measurement. Grassroots humanitarian response operations during conflict are challenged by personal security risks, the unpredictability of unsolicited supplies, emerging volunteer roles, dynamic transportation routes and shifting demands.

Grassroots responses are central to humanitarian responses during the acute phase of a military conflict. By examining the operations of grassroots associations in the early months of the 2022 war in Ukraine, the authors provide a unique perspective on humanitarian logistics. Nonetheless, more inclusive models of humanitarian responses are needed to harness the capacities and resilience of grassroots operations in practice.

Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is the primary forecast evaluation metric in hospitality and tourism research; however its main shortcoming is that it is asymmetric. The asymmetry occurs due to over or under forecasts that introduce bias into forecast evaluation. This study aims to explore the nature of asymmetry and designs a new measure, one that reduces the asymmetric properties while maintaining MAPE’s scale-free and intuitive interpretation characteristics.

The study proposes and tests a new forecasting accuracy measure for hospitality revenue management (RM). A computer simulation is used to assess and demonstrate the problem of asymmetry when forecasting with MAPE, and the new measures’ (MSapeMER, that is, Mean of Selectively applied Absolute Percentage Error or Magnitude of Error Relative to the estimate) ability to reduce it. The MSapeMER’s effectiveness is empirically validated by using a large set of hotel forecasts.

The study demonstrates the ability of the MSapeMER to reduce the asymmetry bias generated by MAPE. Furthermore, this study demonstrates that MSapeMER is more effective than previous attempts to correct for asymmetry bias. The results show via simulation and empirical investigation that the error metric is more stable and less swayed by the presence of over and under forecasts.

It is recommended that hospitality RM researchers and professionals adopt MSapeMER when using MAPE to evaluate forecasting performance. The MSapeMER removes the potential bias that MAPE invites due to its calculation and presence of over and under forecasts. Therefore, forecasting evaluations may be less affected by the presence of over and under forecasts and their ability to bias forecasting results.

Hospitality RM should adopt this measure when MAPE is used, to reduce biased decisions driven by the “asymmetry of MAPE.”

The MAPE error metric exhibits an asymmetry problem, and this paper proposes a more effective solution to reduce biased results with two major methodological contributions. It is first to systematically study the characteristics of MAPE’s asymmetry, while proposing and testing a measure that considerably reduces the amount of asymmetry. This is a critical contribution because MAPE is the primary forecasting metric in hospitality and tourism studies. The second methodological contribution is a procedure developed to “quantify” the asymmetry. The approach is demonstrated and allows future research to compare asymmetric characteristics among various accuracy measures.

This research aims to determine the ideal fare for various aircraft itineraries by modeling prices using a neural network method. Dynamic pricing has been studied from the airline’s point of view, with a focus on demand forecasting and price differentiation. Early demand forecasting on a specific route can assist an airline in strategically planning flights and determining optimal pricing strategies.

A feedforward neural network was employed in the current study. Two hidden layers, consisting of 18 and 12 neurons, were incorporated to enhance the network’s capabilities. The activation function employed for these layers was tanh. Additionally, it was considered that the output layer’s functions were linear. The neural network inputs considered in this study were flight path, month of flight, flight date (week/day), flight time, aircraft type (Boeing, Airbus, other), and flight class (economy, business). The neural network output, on the other hand, was the ticket price. The dataset comprises 16,585 records, specifically flight data for Iranian airlines for 2022.

The findings indicate that the model achieved a high level of accuracy in approximating the actual data. Additionally, it demonstrated the ability to predict the optimal ticket price for various flight routes with minimal error.

Based on the significant alignment observed between the actual data and the tested data utilizing the algorithmic model, airlines can proactively anticipate ticket prices across all routes, optimizing the revenue generated by each flight. The neural network algorithm utilized in this study offers a valuable opportunity for companies to enhance their decision-making processes. By leveraging the algorithm’s features, companies can analyze past data effectively and predict future prices. This enables them to make informed and timely decisions based on reliable information.

The present study represents a pioneering research endeavor that investigates using a neural network algorithm to predict the most suitable pricing for various flight routes. This study aims to provide valuable insights into dynamic pricing for marketing researchers and practitioners.

The study aims to examine the impact of three types of supply chain integration (SCI) on supply chain flexibility (SCF), investigate the impact of SCF on supply chain performance (SCP) and analyse the indirect impact of SCI on SCP by considering the mediating role of SCF within the manufacturing sector of Jordan.

This study used a quantitative approach to validate the study model. An online self-completed questionnaire was used to gather data from 219 participants from managers in various Jordanian manufacturing firms. SmartPLS software was used to perform structural equation modelling to test the formulated hypotheses.

Based on the findings of the study, firms in Jordan's manufacturing sector would benefit from developing an integrative and flexible supply chain to boost SCP in the present volatile, uncertain, complex and speculative market. In addition, SCP was significantly influenced by investments in supply chain management practices related to SCI and SCF. Moreover, SCF significantly moderated the relationship between SCI and SCP. Thus, SCI and SCF assisted firms in reaching their highest potential performance through increased productivity, decreased expenses and increased satisfaction of their customers.

The study employed a cross-sectional design using SCF as a single construct. Future research should look into the specific type of SCFs that have an immense effect on SCP and how these types are affected by the three types of SCI. Furthermore, future research ought to employ probability sampling techniques to improve the generalizability of results or using a longitudinal data-collection design. Finally, additional research should be conducted to validate the findings of this study by replicating it in other specific industries or countries.

The study fills an identified gap based on previous studies by exploring the linkages between SCI, SCF and SCP in the context of manufacturing sector. Moreover, based on the relational view theory, the study proposed an assessment mechanism for SCP for firms based on the link between three types of SCI and SCF.

The automotive industry appears to overcome much of its obstacles, despite the constant struggle facing COVID-19. The pandemic has resulted in significant improvements in the habits and conduct of consumers. There is an increased preference for personal mobility. In this dynamic environment with unexpected changes and high market rivalry, automotive supply chains focus more on executing responsive strategies with minimum costs. This paper aims to identify and model the drivers to the responsiveness of automotive supply chain.

Seventeen drivers for supply chain responsiveness have been identified from the extensive literature, expert interview. An integrated methodology of fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory–interpretive structural modelling (DEMATEL–ISM) is developed to establish the interrelationship between the drivers. The cause–effect relationship between the drivers was obtained through fuzzy DEMATEL technique, and a hierarchical structure of the drivers was developed using the ISM technique.

The result of the integrated methodology revealed that strategic decision-making of management, accurate forecasting of demand, advanced manufacturing system in the organisation and data integration tools are the critical drivers.

This study has conceptual and analytical limitations. In this study, a limited number of drivers are examined for supply chain responsiveness. Further research may examine the role of other key performance indicators in the broad field of responsiveness in the automotive supply chain or other industry sectors. Future study can uncover the interrelationships and relative relevance of indicators using advanced multi-criteria decision-making methodologies.

The authors proposed an integrated methodology that will be benefitted to the supply chain practitioners and automotive manufacturers to develop management strategies to improve responsiveness. This study further helps to compare the responsiveness of the supply chain between various automotive manufacturers.

The primary objectives of the case study are to get the participants exposed to the issues of working capital which even profitable companies face on a day-to-day basis; give the participants an understanding of how to balance the, at times, conflicting objectives of increasing profits and sales through favorable credit terms; and expose them to the impact of increase in inventory levels and average collection period on margins in a period of slow growth. They will also learn about the concept of factoring and its uses.

The case study is about a group of companies engaged in education, steel fabrication and oil businesses owned by a single proprietor. The company was based in Fatehnagar which was part of Hyderabad district in the state of Telangana, India, and the case study traces the origins of the group from 1960s to 2021. The group was invested the surplus cash flows from the oil business to initiate and expand other businesses during this period. The economic downturn due to the COVID-19 pandemic had hit the company, particularly its oldest business – Noble Chemical Agency. The oil business was facing issues related to its growth and profitability, and the uncertainty around COVID-19-related restrictions had only augmented the fears of the management. The case study looks at issues and the dilemma which the owner of the company faced. The case study highlights various issues related to working capital management, especially related to receivables management and inventory levels faced by businesses during the slow-growth phase. It demonstrates how working capital management issues, if not resolved in time, can lead to insolvency of even a successful company with a sound business model.

The case study is meant for teaching in postgraduate management programs (Master of Business Administration and Postgraduate Diploma in Management) in the following courses: corporate finance/financial management course in the first year (the case study should be taught towards the end of the course); and management accounting courses in first year (the case study should be positioned in the middle of these courses). The case study can also be used to highlight issues related to working capital and small business management in a Management Development Programme (MDP) course for “Finance fundamentals for non-finance executives”.

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CSS 1: Accounting and finance.

The purpose of this paper is to analyse and classify the literature that contributed to three questions, namely, what are the benefits of big data analytics (BDA) in the field of supply chain management (SCM) and logistics, what are the challenges in BDA applications in the field of SCM and logistics and what are the determinants of successful applications of BDA in the field of SCM and logistics.

This paper conducts a systematic literature review (SLR) to analyse the findings of 44 selected papers published in the period from 2016 to 2020, in the area of BDA and its impact on SCM. The designed protocol is composed of 14 steps in total, following Tranfeld (2003). The selected research papers are categorized into four themes.

This paper identifies sets of benefits to be gained from the use of BDA in SCM, including benefits in data analytics capabilities, operational efficiency of logistical operations and supply chain/logistics sustainability and agility. It also documents challenges to be addressed in this application, and determinants of successful implementation.

The scope of the paper is limited to the related literature published until the beginning of Corona Virus (COVID) pandemic. Therefore, it does not cover the literature published since the COVID pandemic.

This paper contributes to the academic research by providing a roadmap for future empirical work into this field of study by summarising the findings of the recent work conducted to investigate the uses of BDA in SCM and logistics. Specifically, this paper culminates in a summary of the most relevant benefits, challenges and determinants discussed in recent research. As the field of BDA remains a newly established field with little practical application in SCM and logistics, this paper contributes by highlighting the most important developments in contemporary literature practical applications.

This research aims to analyse the perceptions of practitioners in three regions regarding the challenges faced by their firms during the pandemic, considered a black-swan event. It examines the strategies implemented to mitigate and recover from risks, evaluates the effectiveness of these strategies and assesses the difficulties encountered in their implementation.

In the summer of 2022, an online survey was conducted among supply chain (SC) practitioners in France, Poland and the St. Louis, Missouri region of the USA. The survey aimed to understand the impact of COVID-19 on their firms and the SC strategies employed to sustain operations. These regions were selected due to their varying levels of SC development, including infrastructure, economic resources and expertise. Moreover, they exhibited different responses in safeguarding the well-being of their citizens during the pandemic.

The study reveals consistent perceptions among practitioners from the three regions regarding the impact of COVID-19 on SCs. Their actions to enhance SC resilience primarily relied on strengthening collaborative efforts within their firms and SCs, thus validating the tenets of the relational view.

COVID-19 is (hopefully) our black-swan pandemic occurrence during our lifetime. Nevertheless, the lessons learned from it can inform future SC risk management practices, particularly in dealing with rare crises. During times of crisis, leveraging existing SC structures may prove more effective and efficient than developing new ones. These findings underscore the significance of relationships in ensuring SC resilience.

Golestan province in the northern part of Iran has been affected by devastating floods. There has been a significant change in the pattern of rainfall in Golestan province based on an analysis of the seven heaviest rainfall events in recent decades. Climate change appears to be a significant contributing factor to destructive floods. Thus, this paper aims to assess the susceptibility of this area to flash floods in case of heavy downpours.

This paper uses a variety of computational approaches. Following the collection of data, spatial analyses have been conducted and validated. The layers of information are then weighted, and a final risk map is created. Fuzzy analytical hierarchy process, geographic information system and frequency ratio have been used for data analysis. In the final step, a flood risk map is prepared and discussed.

Due to the complex interaction between thermal fluctuations and precipitation, the situation in the area is further complicated by climate change and the variations in its patterns and intensities. According to the study results, coastal areas of the Caspian Sea, the Gorganrood Basin and the southern regions of the province are predicted to experience flash floods in the future. The research criteria are generalizable and can be used for decision-making in areas exposed to flash flood risk.

The unique feature of this paper is that it evaluates flash flood risks and predicts flood-prone areas in the northern part of Iran. Furthermore, some interventions (e.g. remapping land use and urban zoning) are provided based on the socioeconomic characteristics of the region to reduce flood risk. Based on the generated risk map, a practical suggestion would be to install and operate an integrated rapid flood warning system in high-risk zones.