Search results

This paper examines localized conditions and responses to what people see as ordinary variations in the weather, drawing on their own archive of knowledge and practice for “coping” with it, as distinct from year-to-year climate patterns that may entail “adaptation.”

This paper draws on ethnographic field research and rainfall statistics collected in 1968–1969 and 1987–1988, in a rural area of Western Nigeria where guinea-savannah small-scale farmers now grow increasingly for the market. Research in the 1980s was designed to track all changes since the 1960s. It is revisited here to draw out the rainfall variable.

In the 1980s, farmers noted a decline in the first rains of the early growing season, and a change in the short dry season, over a period of three years, in a way that differed from the expected patterns of twenty years previously. The shift is confirmed by rainfall statistics. Their crop repertoire choices are noted.

The paper’s themes are culled from a broader range of observations over the 20 years. The interweaving of the variables in complex change over several decades is noted as a research challenge.

Local time series, interpreted through the local archive of social and technical practice, offers a rich entry point into what the recent AAA climate change review refers to as coping and adaptation, with respect to what I call “weather” and “climate.”

This paper aims to demonstrate the importance of taking into account precipitation and the vegetation response to it when trying to analyse changes of vegetation cover in drylands with high inter‐annual rainfall variability.

Linear regression models were used to determine trends in NDVI and precipitation and their interrelations for each pixel. Trends in NDVI that were entirely supported by precipitation trends were considered to impose climate‐induced vegetation change. Trends in NDVI that were not explained by trends in precipitation were considered to mark human‐induced vegetation change. Modelling results were validated by test of statistical significance and by comparison with the data from higher resolution satellites and fieldtrips to key test sites.

More than 26 percent of all vegetated area in Central Asia experienced significant changes during 1981‐2000. Rainfall has been proved to enforce most of these changes (21 percent of the entire vegetated area). The trends in vegetation activity driven by anthropogenic factor are much scarcer and occupy about 5.75 percent of the studied area.

Planners, decision makers and other interest groups can use the findings of the study for assessment and monitoring land performance/land degradation over dry regions.

The study demonstrates the importance of taking into account precipitation and the vegetation response to it when trying to analyse changes of vegetation cover in drylands with high inter‐annual rainfall variability.

This paper aims to use geographical information systems kriging interpolation technique to examine and map the spatiotemporal variation in rainfall in Guinea Savanna of Nigeria.

Rainfall data, for the periods between 1970 and 2000, are collected from the archives of the Nigerian Meteorological Services, Oshodi Lagos. In this paper, rainfall is considered as the primary and input for crop yield. It is observed that the most important climatic element is rainfall; particularly inter‐annual variation and the spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall. Three spatial interpolation methods are chosen for this research work: inverse distance weighting method and the spline (completely regularized) as the determinist methods; and ordinary kriging as the stochastic methods. In order to analyze the interpolation quality, an evaluation by cross validation has been carried out. Ordinary kriging method was discovered suitable for this paper because it allows the sharpest interpolation rainfall data and is the most representative.

The results of the analysis show that rainfall varies both in time and space. Rainfall variability is very high in most of Northern Guinea Savanna (e.g. Yola, Minna, and Ilorin) with values of coefficient of variation (CV) between 26 and 49 percent while in Southern Guinea Savanna, the CV is very low especially, in Enugu (9 percent), and Shaki (8 percent). These anomalies (such as decline in annual rainfall, change in the peak and retreat of rainfall and false start of rainfall) are detrimental to crop germination and yield, resulting in little or no harvest at the end of the season.

The paper concludes that geospatial techniques are powerful tools that should be explored further for realistic analysis of the effects of seasonal variability in rainfall.

The effects of environmental change are becoming more noticeable in the Lower Mekong Basin, where there is growing pressure on the agriculture-based livelihoods of communities living along the mainstream of the Mekong River. This chapter presents an investigation of temporal seasonal variability in four communities of Kratie Province, Cambodia, including identification of locally developed strategies to adapt to temporal changes in weather patterns. A mixed-methods approach was adopted, combining historical hydrometeorological data with participatory seasonal calendars and daily routine diaries. Seasonal calendars were compiled from nine workshops across four villages in Kratie Province, and daily diaries were collected from seven individuals across three villages. The results indicate that patterns in rainfall, flooding and drought have become more variable due to the impacts of environmental change; a phenomenon that will likely continue into the future. Without effective, locally appropriate adaptation measures, changing weather patterns will likely continue to have adverse impacts on communities in the region due to their reliance on reliable seasonal rainfall and flooding events for crop cultivation. Households and communities in the study region have already developed a number of approaches to mitigate the adverse impacts of environmental change. This research also reiterated the importance of incorporating both local knowledge and scientific data to gain the most accurate understanding of the impacts of environmental change in a given region.

In view of the consensus that climate change is happening, scientists have documented several findings about Uganda’s recent climate, as well as its variability and change. The purpose of this study is to review what has been documented, thus it gives an overview of what is known and seeks to explain the implications of a changing climate, hence what ought to be known to create a climate resilient environment.

Terms such as “climate”, “climate change” and “climate variability” were identified in recent peer-reviewed published literature to find recent climate-related literature on Uganda. Findings from independent researchers and consultants are incorporated. Data obtained from rainfall and temperature observations and from COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model-Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CCLM CORDEX) data, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) have been used to generate spatial maps, seasonal outputs and projections using GrADS 2.02 and Geographic Information System (GIS) software for visualization.

The climate of Uganda is tropical in nature and influenced by the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), varied relief, geo-location and inland lakes, among other factors. The impacts of severe weather and climate trends and variability have been documented substantially in the past 20-30 years. Most studies indicated a rainfall decline. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures are on the rise, while projections indicate a decrease in rainfall and increase in temperature both in the near and far future. The implication of these changes on society and the economy are discussed herein. Cost of inaction is expected to become huge, given factors like, the growing rate of the population and the slow expanding economy experienced in Uganda. Varied forms of adaptation to the impacts of climate change are being implemented, especially in the agricultural sector and at house hold level, though not systematically.

This review of scientific research findings aims to create a better understanding of the recent climate change and variability in Uganda and provides a baseline of summarized information for use in future research and actions.

This paper aims to document indigenous knowledge systems (IKS) used for short- and long-range rainfall prediction by small holder farmers in three communities of Guruve District, in north-eastern Zimbabwe. The study also investigated farmers’ perceptions of contemporary forecasts and the reliability of both IKS and contemporary forecasts.

Data were collected among small holder farmers in Guruve District using household interviews and focus group discussions in three wards in the district, grouped according to their agro-climate into high and low rainfall areas. To get an expert view of the issues, key informant interviews were held with key agricultural extension personnel and traditional leaders.

Results obtained showed show high dependence on IKS-based forecasts in the district. Over 80 per cent of the farmers used at least one form of IKS for short- and long-range forecasting, as they are easily understood and applicable to their local situations. Tree phenology, migration and behaviour of some bird species and insects, and observation of atmospheric phenomena were the common indicators used. Tree phenology was the most common with over 80 per cent of farmers using this indicator. While some respondents (60 per cent) viewed forecasts derived from IKS as more reliable than science-based forecasts, 69 per cent preferred an integration of the two methods.

The simplicity and location specificity of IKS-based forecasts makes them potentially useful to smallholder farmers, climate scientists and policymakers in tracking change in these areas for more effective climate change response strategies and policymaking.

This paper looks at the potential implications of land use and climate change for replenishment of the five aquifers which lie beneath the Upper Guadiana catchment in central Spain. The impacts of scenarios for climate and land use change on groundwater recharge are explored using a physically based hydrological model. (Research is the downward flux of water from the base of the root zone, beyond which water is no longer available for evapotranspiration and forms part of the groundwater resource.) The model is integrated for a series of climate change scenarios spanning the range of predictions from general circulation models. Aquifer replenishment through recharge from the main four cover types is examined for each scenario and the implications for groundwater resources are examined. These climate scenarios are then coupled with a scenario for change in irrigated land use in the Guadiana derived from a cellular automata model based on historical change. The implications of coupled climate and land use change are discussed. The results indicate that current climatic variability has greater impacts on groundwater recharge than a number of extreme scenarios for climatic change. Although the impact of the land use change scenario is greater than that of the climate change scenarios, it is still significantly less than current vairability and represents a relatively small change at the catchment scale. This change is too small to significantly affect groundwater resources but may impact surface flows.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate rice farmers’ perceptions on the manifestations of the climate change and identify efficient strategies and determinants of adoption of these strategies in the Republic of Benin.

Surveys were conducted using participatory research appraisal tools and techniques, such as direct observation, individual interviews and field visits through a questionnaire for data collection. A total of 418 rice farmers across 39 villages located in the three climatic zones of the Republic of Benin were interviewed. Farmers’ perceptions, temperature from 1952 to 2018 and rainfall from 1960 to 2018 data obtained from meteorological stations were analysed using descriptive and inferences statistics.

All the surveyed farmers were aware of climate change and perceived diverse manifestations including the delay in rainfall regarded as the most important risk. They perceived that deforestation, no respect for the laws of nature and desacralization of morals, no respect for cultures and the traditional rainmakers are the main causes of climate change. The disruption of agricultural calendar and the reduction in rice yield were perceived as the main impacts of climate change in rice production. They used various approaches to adapt and mitigate climate change effects. The adoption of adaptation strategies was influenced either negatively or positively by the household size, land size, education level, membership to rice farmer’s association, training in rice production, access to extension services, use of improved varieties and the location in climatic zones.

For each climatic zone of the Republic of Benin, weather data were collected in only one meteorological station.

The study showed that it is important to educate rice farmers on the scientific causes of climate change for better resilience. There is an urgent need to train rice farmers in irrigation and water management techniques to cope with climate variability. To promote irrigation, the authors suggest the establishment of a subsidy and credit mechanism by the government. Factors that influenced adoption of efficient adaptation strategies to climate events must be taken into account for future adaptation policies in the Republic of Benin.

This study provided an overview of the perceptions and adaptations of rice farmers along the climatic gradient in the Republic of Benin. Therefore, the knowledge of the determining factors of the adaptation strategies used by rice farmers could be used in the setting up of effective climate change resilience policies in Benin.

The purpose of this paper is to present the development of cumulative rainfall deficit (CRD) indices for corn in Shandong Province, China, based on high-resolution weather (county, 1980-2011) and yield data (township, 1989-2010) for five counties in Tai’an prefecture.

A survey with farming households is undertaken to obtain local corn prices and production costs to compute the sum insured. CRD indices are developed for five corn-growth phases. Rainfall is spatially interpolated to derive indices for areas that are outside a 25 km radius from weather stations. To lower basis risk, triggers and exits of the payout functions are statistically determined rather than relying on water requirement levels.

The results show that rainfall deficits in the main corn-growth phases explain yield reductions to a satisfying degree, except for the emergence phase. Correlation coefficients between payouts of the CRD indices and yield reductions reach 0.86-0.96 and underline the performance of the indices with low basis risk. The exception is SA-Xintai (correlation 0.71) where a total rainfall deficit index performs better (0.87). Risk premium rates range from 5.6 percent (Daiyue) to 12.2 percent (SA-Xintai) and adequately reflect the drought risk.

This paper suggests that rainfall deficit indices can be used in the future to complement existing indemnity-based insurance products that do not cover drought for corn in Shandong or for CRD indices to operate as a new insurance product.

The Monsoon Asian region has a much wider rainfall distribution than other regions of the world. The countries in this region are characterized mostly by floods and typhoons, which result from the interplay among the ocean, the atmosphere, and the land. Thus, many factors affect the strength of the rainfall, including sea surface temperatures in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, variations in solar output, land snow cover and soil moisture over the Asian continent, and the position and strength of prevailing winds. The links between these factors and monsoons appear to wax and wane over time, and the observational record is too short to explain this longer-term variability. Precipitation and surface wind maps of Asia during the summer months of June to August show the average spatial patterns of monsoon circulation and moisture.