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1 – 10 of over 4000
Article
Publication date: 10 May 2013

Julia Lutz, Jan Volkholz and Friedrich‐Wilhelm Gerstengarbe

The Orange River is one of the largest river basins in southern Africa. Since it plays a crucial role in the region's ecology and economy, it is important to estimate…

Abstract

Purpose

The Orange River is one of the largest river basins in southern Africa. Since it plays a crucial role in the region's ecology and economy, it is important to estimate future developments in its hydrology. A necessary means to this end are climate projections. This paper seeks to address this issue.

Design/methodology/approach

In this work the authors present projections obtained by two complementary methods; they use a Statistical Analogue Re‐sampling Scheme (STARS) and a dynamical regional climate model (CCLM – COSMO in Climate Mode). In order to determine the viability of these methods, the authors perform cross‐validations for the years 1976‐2000.

Findings

CCLM shows good performance regarding the 2 m temperature but the reproduction of precipitation is rather poor. STARS, on the other hand, produces very good results for both variables. The climate projections of both models show a considerable temperature increase for the future (2036‐2060, SRES A1B scenario), especially in the inland of the simulation area. However, while CCLM projects a general decrease in precipitation, STARS indicates a strong precipitation decrease in the already dry western part of the region and a moderate decrease resp. no change in the east during the rain season.

Originality/value

For the first time the statistical approach used gridded data as its input. Therefore, it was possible to apply complementary methods in order to generate the climate projections and to compare them.

Details

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, vol. 5 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-8692

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Environmental Security in Greece
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80071-360-4

Book part
Publication date: 31 December 2010

Ernesto Rodríguez-Camino

The observed increase in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases since the industrial period, due to human activities, is very likely causing the warming of the…

Abstract

The observed increase in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases since the industrial period, due to human activities, is very likely causing the warming of the climate system. Anthropogenic warming and rising sea levels will continue for centuries due to the time scales associated with climate processes and feedbacks. Even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized, different types of adaptation measures are needed to cope with the inevitable change. At the same time mitigation measures aiming at decreasing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing carbon sinks must be taken in order to reduce the potential extent of global warming. This chapter covers the main aspects of the current understanding of the physical basis of climate change, including the directly measured observations and estimated projections for the 21st century. Causes and effects of climate change are also addressed. Finally, the main uncertainties of climate projections and a few general considerations on the different ways to respond to the climate change issue are discussed.

Details

Tourism and the Implications of Climate Change: Issues and Actions
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-85724-620-2

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 August 2013

Rajat Gupta, Matthew Gregg, Hu Du and Katie Williams

To critically compare three future weather year (FWY) downscaling approaches, based on the 2009 UK Climate Projections, used for climate change impact and adaptation…

Abstract

Purpose

To critically compare three future weather year (FWY) downscaling approaches, based on the 2009 UK Climate Projections, used for climate change impact and adaptation analysis in building simulation software.

Design/methodology/approach

The validity of these FWYs is assessed through dynamic building simulation modelling to project future overheating risk in typical English homes in 2050s and 2080s.

Findings

The modelling results show that the variation in overheating projections is far too significant to consider the tested FWY data sets equally suitable for the task.

Research and practical implications

It is recommended that future research should consider harmonisation of the downscaling approaches so as to generate a unified data set of FWYs to be used for a given location and climate projection. If FWY are to be used in practice, live projects will need viable and reliable FWY on which to base their adaptation decisions. The difference between the data sets tested could potentially lead to different adaptation priorities specifically with regard to time series and adaptation phasing through the life of a building.

Originality/value

The paper investigates the different results derived from FWY application to building simulation. The outcome and implications are important considerations for research and practice involved in FWY data use in building simulation intended for climate change adaptation modelling.

Article
Publication date: 23 August 2013

P.F.G. Banfill, D.P. Jenkins, S. Patidar, M. Gul, G.F. Menzies and G.J. Gibson

The work set out to design and develop an overheating risk tool using the UKCP09 climate projections that is compatible with building performance simulation software. The…

Abstract

Purpose

The work set out to design and develop an overheating risk tool using the UKCP09 climate projections that is compatible with building performance simulation software. The aim of the tool is to exploit the Weather Generator and give a reasonably accurate assessment of a building's performance in future climates, without adding significant time, cost or complexity to the design team's work.

Methodology/approach

Because simulating every possible future climate is impracticable, the approach adopted was to use principal component analysis to give a statistically rigorous simplification of the climate projections. The perceptions and requirements of potential users were assessed through surveys, interviews and focus groups.

Findings

It is possible to convert a single dynamic simulation output into many hundreds of simulation results at hourly resolution for equally probable climates, giving a population of outcomes for the performance of a specific building in a future climate, thus helping the user choose adaptations that might reduce the risk of overheating. The tool outputs can be delivered as a probabilistic overheating curve and feed into a risk management matrix. Professionals recognized the need to quantify overheating risk, particularly for non‐domestic buildings, and were concerned about the ease of incorporating the UKCP09 projections into this process. The new tool has the potential to meet these concerns.

Originality/value

The paper is the first attempt to link UKCP09 climate projections and building performance simulation software in this way and the work offers the potential for design practitioners to use the tool to quickly assess the risk of overheating in their designs and adapt them accordingly.

Details

Structural Survey, vol. 31 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-080X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 23 April 2018

Francis Wasswa Nsubuga and Hannes Rautenbach

In view of the consensus that climate change is happening, scientists have documented several findings about Uganda’s recent climate, as well as its variability and…

5433

Abstract

Purpose

In view of the consensus that climate change is happening, scientists have documented several findings about Uganda’s recent climate, as well as its variability and change. The purpose of this study is to review what has been documented, thus it gives an overview of what is known and seeks to explain the implications of a changing climate, hence what ought to be known to create a climate resilient environment.

Design/methodology/approach

Terms such as “climate”, “climate change” and “climate variability” were identified in recent peer-reviewed published literature to find recent climate-related literature on Uganda. Findings from independent researchers and consultants are incorporated. Data obtained from rainfall and temperature observations and from COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model-Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CCLM CORDEX) data, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) have been used to generate spatial maps, seasonal outputs and projections using GrADS 2.02 and Geographic Information System (GIS) software for visualization.

Findings

The climate of Uganda is tropical in nature and influenced by the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), varied relief, geo-location and inland lakes, among other factors. The impacts of severe weather and climate trends and variability have been documented substantially in the past 20-30 years. Most studies indicated a rainfall decline. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures are on the rise, while projections indicate a decrease in rainfall and increase in temperature both in the near and far future. The implication of these changes on society and the economy are discussed herein. Cost of inaction is expected to become huge, given factors like, the growing rate of the population and the slow expanding economy experienced in Uganda. Varied forms of adaptation to the impacts of climate change are being implemented, especially in the agricultural sector and at house hold level, though not systematically.

Originality/value

This review of scientific research findings aims to create a better understanding of the recent climate change and variability in Uganda and provides a baseline of summarized information for use in future research and actions.

Details

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, vol. 10 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-8692

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 12 April 2018

Sanja Stojkovic Zlatanovic, Milan Stojkovic and Mihailo Mitkovic

The purpose of this paper is to set out the policy guidelines and recommendations to harmonise the Serbian water legislation with European Union standards in the area of…

1540

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to set out the policy guidelines and recommendations to harmonise the Serbian water legislation with European Union standards in the area of water system management as impacted by climate change.

Design/methodology/approach

The EU Water Framework Directive is analysed in the context of implementation of the integrated water management policy presented in the Serbian Water Law (2010), as well as the National Water Management Strategy (2016). It has been found that the water management legislation that deals with the impact of climate change on water resources is incomplete. Although there are numerous challenges related to research of climate change and water systems, water policy and legal aspects cannot be neglected. The so-called soft law instruments represented in a form of strategy documents could be a valuable response in terms of an adaptive and integrated water policy approach.

Findings

The research is applied to a case study of the Velika Morava River Basin, at Ljubicevski Most hydrological station. Long-term projections suggest a decrease in annual precipitation levels and annual flows up to the year 2100 for climatic scenarios A1B and A2, accompanied by a rapid increase in air temperatures.

Originality/value

This study proposes a water management policy and provides recommendations for the Velika Morava River Basin as impacted by climate change, according to the European Union legislation.

Details

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, vol. 10 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-8692

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 6 July 2012

Ashutosh Mohanty, Manoranjan Mishra, Devesh Sharma and Mohammad Waheed Ibrahimzada

It is now established by the global scientific community that climate change is a hard reality but the changes are complex in nature and to a great extent uncertain…

Abstract

It is now established by the global scientific community that climate change is a hard reality but the changes are complex in nature and to a great extent uncertain. Global circulation models (GCMs) have made significant contributions to the theoretical understanding of potential climate impacts, but their shortcomings in terms of assessing climate impacts soon became apparent. GCMs demonstrate significant skill at the continental and hemispheric scales and incorporate a large proportion of the complexity of the global system. However, they are inherently unable to represent local subgrid-scale features and dynamics. The first generation approaches of climate change impact and vulnerability assessments are derived from GCMs downscaled to produce scenarios at regional and local scales, but since the downscaled models inherit the biases of their parent GCM, they produce a simplified version of local climate. Furthermore, their output is limited to changes in mean temperature, rainfall, and sea level. For this reason, hydrological modeling with GCM output is useful for assessing impacts. The hydrological response due to change in climate variables in the Amu Darya River Basin was investigated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The modeling results show that there is an increase in precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, potential evapotranspiration, surface runoff, percolation, and water yields. The above methodology can be practiced in this region for conducting adaptation and mitigation assessments. This initial assessment will facilitate future simulation modeling applications using SWAT for the Amu Darya River Basin by including variables of local changes (e.g., population growth, deforestation) that directly affect the hydrology of the region.

Details

Climate Change Modeling For Local Adaptation In The Hindu Kush-Himalayan Region
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78052-487-0

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 March 2015

Justin Sexton, Yvette Everingham and Bertrand Timbal

This study aims to investigate the effects of climate change on harvestability for sugarcane-growing regions situated between mountain ranges and the narrow east…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the effects of climate change on harvestability for sugarcane-growing regions situated between mountain ranges and the narrow east Australian coastline.

Design/methodology/approach

Daily rainfall simulations from 11 general circulation models (GCMs) were downscaled for seven Australian sugarcane regions (1961:2000). Unharvestable days were calculated from these 11 GCMs and compared to interpolated observed data. The historical downscaled GCM simulations were then compared to simulations under low (B1) and high (A2) emissions scenarios for the period of 2046-2065. The 25th, 50th and 75th percentiles of paired model differences were assessed using 95 per cent bootstrapped confidence intervals.

Findings

A decrease in the number of unharvestable days for the Burdekin (winter/spring) and Bundaberg (winter) regions and an increase for the Herbert region (spring) were plausible under the A2 scenario. Spatial plots identified variability within regions. Northern and southern regions were more variable than central regions.

Practical implications

Changes to the frequency of unharvestable days may require a range of management adaptations such as modifying the harvest period and upgrading harvesting technologies.

Originality/value

The application of a targeted industry rainfall parameter (unharvestable days) obtained from downscaled climate models provided a novel approach to investigate the impacts of climate change. This research forms a baseline for industry discussion and adaptation planning towards an environmentally and economically sustainable future. The methodology outlined can easily be extended to other primary industries impacted by wet weather.

Details

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, vol. 7 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-8692

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 23 September 2014

In recent years, Costa Rica has experienced increasing economic loss from numerous climate disasters. To meet the challenge of reducing local vulnerabilities, it is…

Abstract

In recent years, Costa Rica has experienced increasing economic loss from numerous climate disasters. To meet the challenge of reducing local vulnerabilities, it is necessary to incorporate the potential impacts of current and future climate disaster events into DRM policy, planning, and practice, both at the national and local levels. This chapter evaluates the current status of policy initiative on incorporating the climate disaster risk aspect in DRM planning at the national level in Costa Rica and discusses whether this initiative provides any answers to reduce climate disaster risk. The study applies a “checklist” as a means of evaluation.

Details

Local Disaster Risk Management in a Changing Climate: Perspective from Central America
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78350-935-5

Keywords

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