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This paper aims to document indigenous knowledge systems (IKS) used for short- and long-range rainfall prediction by small holder farmers in three communities of Guruve District, in north-eastern Zimbabwe. The study also investigated farmers’ perceptions of contemporary forecasts and the reliability of both IKS and contemporary forecasts.

Data were collected among small holder farmers in Guruve District using household interviews and focus group discussions in three wards in the district, grouped according to their agro-climate into high and low rainfall areas. To get an expert view of the issues, key informant interviews were held with key agricultural extension personnel and traditional leaders.

Results obtained showed show high dependence on IKS-based forecasts in the district. Over 80 per cent of the farmers used at least one form of IKS for short- and long-range forecasting, as they are easily understood and applicable to their local situations. Tree phenology, migration and behaviour of some bird species and insects, and observation of atmospheric phenomena were the common indicators used. Tree phenology was the most common with over 80 per cent of farmers using this indicator. While some respondents (60 per cent) viewed forecasts derived from IKS as more reliable than science-based forecasts, 69 per cent preferred an integration of the two methods.

The simplicity and location specificity of IKS-based forecasts makes them potentially useful to smallholder farmers, climate scientists and policymakers in tracking change in these areas for more effective climate change response strategies and policymaking.

This paper aims to investigate the effect of using indigenous forecasts (IFs) and scientific forecasts (SFs) on pastoralists’ adaptation methods in Rwenzori region, Western Uganda.

Data were collected using a household survey from 270 pastoralists and focus group discussions. The multivariate probit model was used in the analysis.

The results revealed that pastoralists using of IF only more likely to be non-farm enterprises and livestock sales as adaptation strategies. Pastoralists using both SF and IF were more likely to practise livestock migration.

Other factors found to be important included land ownership, land tenure, gender, education level, non-farm and productive assets, climate-related risks and agricultural extension access.

Increasing the number of weather stations in pastoral areas would increase the predictive accuracy of scientific climate information, which results in better adaptive capacity of pastoralists. Active participation of pastoral households in national meteorological dissemination processes should be explored.

A two-prong approach that supports both mobile and sedentary pastoralism should be adopted in rangeland development policies.

This study has shown the relevance of IFs in climate change adaptation methods of pastoralists. It has also shown that IFs compliment SFs in climate change adaptation in pastoralism.

The purpose of this paper is to identify, analyse and document local traditional indicators used in drought forecasting in the Mzingwane Catchment and to assess the possibility of integrating traditional rainfall forecasting, using the local traditional indicators, with meteorological forecasting methods.

Self-administered structured questionnaires were conducted on 101 respondents in four districts of the Mzingwane Catchment area, namely, Beitbridge, Mangwe, Esighodini and Mwenezi from February to August 2012. In addition, key informant interviews and focus group discussions were also used in data collection and the collected data were analysed for drought history and demographics; drought adaptation and the use of drought forecasting methods in the catchment using Statistical Package for Social Science.

The paper reveals the growing importance of precipitation forecasts among Mzingwane communities, particularly the amount, timing, duration and distribution of rainfall. Rainfall was cited as the major cause of drought by 98 per cent of the respondents in the catchment. Whilst meteorological rainfall forecasts are available through various channels, they are not readily accessible to rural communities. Furthermore, they are not very reliable at local level. The paper shows that communities in the Mzingwane Catchment still regard local traditional knowledge forecasting as their primary source of weather forecasts. The paper finds that plant phenology is widely used by the local communities in the four districts for drought forecasting. Early and significant flowering of Mopane trees (Colophospermum mopane) from September to December has been identified to be one of the signals of poor rainfall season in respect to quantity and distribution and subsequent drought. Late and less significant flowering of Umtopi trees (Boscia albitrunca) from September to December also signals a poor rainfall season.

The paper fulfils an identified need to study and document useful traditional drought indicators. Furthermore, the paper provides a platform for possible integration of traditional drought forecasting and meteorological forecasting and ensure sustainable rural livelihood development. The paper is useful to both meteorological researchers and resource-constrained communities in Mzingwane Catchment.

This study aims to explore the utility of anticipatory adaptation to climate variability and related livelihood sensitivities in rural African contexts using the case of Mbire district situated in the mid-Zambezi valley region of Zimbabwe. The provision of decadal climate information (up to ten years), as part of an anticipatory adaptation package, is at the centre of analysis.

The study used semi-structured and key informant interviews, with a total of 45 semi-structured interviews being conducted with randomly selected long-term communal farmers in the case study area. Whilst data from semi-structured interviews was arranged in Microsoft Excel, thematic analysis was used in analyzing all data.

Anticipatory adaptation and decadal climate projections are shown to potentially enhance flexibility in adaptation planning vis- à-vis responding to climate variability and other challenges, as well as reduce chances of maladaptation in responding to climate challenges in the context of multiple and reinforcing stresses and shocks.

Anticipatory adaptation, with its three main pillars of future analysis, flexibility of strategies and proactive action, is emerging as key in assisting adaptation planning, the harnessing of opportunities and decision-making vis- à-vis responding to climate uncertainties and related livelihood sensitivities. Yet there have not been much empirically grounded analyses in understanding the role of anticipatory adaptation in rural Africa. This study therefore adds to evidence-based analyses towards understanding the role and utility of anticipatory adaptation in local communities in Africa.

This study aims to assess barriers in accessing and uptaking climate change adaptation information among smallholder tomato farmers in Tanzania.

This study was conducted in Iringa and Morogoro regions, Tanzania. It adopted cross-sectional research design. Multistage, purposive and random sampling techniques with a sample size of 183 smallholder tomato farmers were used. Questionnaires containing closed- and open-ended questions, interview guide and focus group discussions were used to collect data. To ensure validity and reliability of data collection instruments, pretesting of the questionnaires was conducted by administering them to a small group of smallholder tomato growers. Statistical Product and Service Solutions software was used to analyse quantitative data while NVivo was used for analysing qualitative data.

Lack of clear understanding of climate change information (132, 72.1%), scarcity of libraries and information centres (125, 68.3%), inadequate income (125, 68.3%), lack of trust of sources of information (114, 62.3%), lack of sufficient knowledge about climate change (111, 60%), illiteracy (110, 60.1%), poor distribution of electricity in rural areas (109, 59.6%) and use of jargons (93, 50.8%) in explaining climate change adaptation issues are hindrances for smallholder tomato farmers to access and uptake climate change adaptation information.

This study was conducted in only two districts in Tanzania; thus, the findings cannot be generalized.

The government and relevant agencies are recommended to use appropriate strategies for breaking the barriers that impede easy access and uptake of climate change adaptation information by smallholder tomato farmers as one of the interventions to combat the impacts posed by climate change.

This study has contributed to the ongoing discourses on climate change issues. Such discourses have influenced attention and understanding of the role of access and uptake of climate change adaptation information by smallholder farmers for planning and implementation of adaptation strategies through awareness creation.

This study is in line with goal number 13.3 of Sustainable Development Goals, which vows on taking necessary actions in combating climate change and its impacts. Thus, smallholder tomato farmers’ awareness about climate change through access and uptake of climate change adaptation information is one of the interventions to combat climate change and its impacts.

This paper aims to provide a systematic literature review of the state-of-the-art applications of climate information in humanitarian relief efforts, to further the knowledge of how climate science can be better integrated into the decision-making process of humanitarian supply chains.

A systematic literature review was conducted using a combination of key search terms developed from both climate science and humanitarian logistics literature. Articles from four major databases were retrieved, reduced and analyzed.

The study illustrates the status of application of climate information in humanitarian work, and identifies usability, collaboration and coordination as three key themes.

By delivering an overview of the current applications and challenges of climate information, this literature review proposes a three-phase conceptual framework.

This chapter presents a case study on smallholder vulnerability and adaptation to long-term desiccation in the West African Sahel. Climatologists recognize Sahelian desiccation as a long-term multi-decadal dry period that persisted from roughly 1968 to 1995. This study draws on fine-scale ethnographic and daily rainfall data to elucidate local perspectives on this broad regional process. As such, this provides a window on the local lived experience of regional climate variability.

This study draws on multiple periods of ethnographic fieldwork in two different Mossi areas in north-central Burkina Faso (West Africa). Fieldwork consisted of key informant interviews, household surveys, and participant observation. The authors incorporate daily precipitation data from two meteorological stations provided by the General Directorate of Meteorology of Burkina Faso. Researchers assembled this data and graphed daily rainfall totals for individual rainfall seasons in the years preceding each period of fieldwork. The qualitative and quantitative data are analyzed by using a Sustainable Livelihoods (SL) framework.

The study finds that local perceptions of increased rainfall variability correspond to patterns evident in daily rainfall records for individual stations. Additionally, the authors document how rural producers are negatively affected by both intra-seasonal and multi-decadal rainfall variability. Mossi smallholders have adapted through new cropping patterns, livelihood diversification, and investments in agricultural intensification. These adaptations have been largely successful and could be adopted by other Sahelian groups in their efforts to adapt to climate change.

Fieldwork took place over several years in two different departments and five localities. The two anthropologists used a common livelihoods analytical framework but different research protocols over this time span. Thus, the data collection was not systematic across all locations and time periods. This limits the degree to which results are representative beyond surveyed localities at their respective points in time.

This study presents local views and perceptions of regional climate variability and ecological change. It is a rare bottom-up perspective supplemented with precipitation data.

The nature of the collaborations that exists among the organizations in the climate change and agriculture sectors can influence the tailoring of climate forecasts into information useable for adapting agricultural practices to the risks posed by climate change. Also, the extent to which farmers are integrated into this organizational collaboration network can influence their access to climate information. This paper aims to examine how organizational collaborations in the process of climate information generation and dissemination acts as either barriers or enablers of farmers’ access to and use of climate information in Ghana.

This study used key informant interview and questionnaire survey to interview the organizations in the climate change and agriculture sectors. Using network analysis as an analytical framework, the authors estimated the networks’ core-periphery, density, reciprocity and degree centrality.

The authors observed that communication of climate information to farmers is mostly influenced by the collaborations between governmental organizations and nongovernmental organizations. Nevertheless, information flow and exchange through organizational collaboration network is having limited effect on improving farmers’ knowledge about climate risks, impacts and available risk response options. This is mostly because the feedback flow of information from farmers to national level organizations has not been effective in addressing localized climate/agro challenges.

This paper provides a critical overview of key issues in influencing the relevancy and usefulness of climate information in the Ghanaian agriculture sector. Insights gained and recommendations made are essential for deploying effective climate services in Ghana and can be relevant for many African countries because of similar socioeconomic contexts.

This paper was set to develop a model for forecasting maize production in Tanzania using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) approach. The aim is to forecast future production of maize for the next 10 years to help identify the population at risk of food insecurity and quantify the anticipated maize shortage.

Annual historical data on maize production (hg/ha) from 1961 to 2021 obtained from the FAOSTAT database were used. The ARIMA method is a robust framework for forecasting time-series data with non-seasonal components. The model was selected based on the Akaike Information Criteria corrected (AICc) minimum values and maximum log-likelihood. Model adequacy was checked using plots of residuals and the Ljung-Box test.

The results suggest that ARIMA (1,1,1) is the most suitable model to forecast maize production in Tanzania. The selected model proved efficient in forecasting maize production in the coming years and is recommended for application.

The study used partially processed secondary data to fit for Time series analysis using ARIMA (1,1,1) and hence reliable and conclusive results.

This study aims to investigate the effects of climate change on harvestability for sugarcane-growing regions situated between mountain ranges and the narrow east Australian coastline.

Daily rainfall simulations from 11 general circulation models (GCMs) were downscaled for seven Australian sugarcane regions (1961:2000). Unharvestable days were calculated from these 11 GCMs and compared to interpolated observed data. The historical downscaled GCM simulations were then compared to simulations under low (B1) and high (A2) emissions scenarios for the period of 2046-2065. The 25th, 50th and 75th percentiles of paired model differences were assessed using 95 per cent bootstrapped confidence intervals.

A decrease in the number of unharvestable days for the Burdekin (winter/spring) and Bundaberg (winter) regions and an increase for the Herbert region (spring) were plausible under the A2 scenario. Spatial plots identified variability within regions. Northern and southern regions were more variable than central regions.

Changes to the frequency of unharvestable days may require a range of management adaptations such as modifying the harvest period and upgrading harvesting technologies.

The application of a targeted industry rainfall parameter (unharvestable days) obtained from downscaled climate models provided a novel approach to investigate the impacts of climate change. This research forms a baseline for industry discussion and adaptation planning towards an environmentally and economically sustainable future. The methodology outlined can easily be extended to other primary industries impacted by wet weather.