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The aim of this study is to present a concept of interactive foresight process, its theoretical and methodological considerations and a foresight exercise concerning the development of knowledge economy in the Central Hungarian Region.

A methodology of interactive foresight process for creating regional future concepts is developed, which is based on a specific meaning of integral futures and uses online solutions, too.

Personal meetings with small and medium enterprise (SME) stakeholders and the works of interactive communications with feedbacks within and among stakeholder groups was organized around the research homepage. The networking created the interconnection and the feedbacks between the stakeholders and the futurist group in the process of shaping regional future ideas. The online networking is running.

The low number of stakeholders can limit the validity and acceptance of futures ideas created by this process.

The developed interactive foresight process can also be applicable at different organizational levels and in different fields for shaping shared future ideas.

Application of interactive foresight process can contribute to the development of anticipatory democracy.

A theoretically based interactive foresight process has been developed in which stakeholders can participate not only interactively in the foresight process but they can implement the achievements in their enterprising activity as well. The participants were interested in foresight and cooperative during the whole process because they learned the use of foresight tools through collective solution of practical tasks which were important for them.

The war in Iraq raises questions about the global world order and this article aims to suggest the need for us to awaken to fresh thinking on the problems facing the world.

A brief analysis of the global problematic is presented. Next, the article concentrates on some of the ways in which futurists can respond. The third section takes up the theme of what it means to “wake up” at the cultural level. Finally the paper considers some examples of “post‐conventional” futures work.

The article describes advanced forms of futures enquiry and action that are being developed to help people to engage in‐depth with the multiple crises that threaten the world and its nascent futures.

The article provides a basis for futurists and foresight practitioners to find the “levers of change”, the strategies, the enabling contexts and pathways to social foresight.

To outline and present a generalised scheme for using “layered methods” in foresight work.

A number of different approaches to “layering” in futures studies and foresight work are examined and synthesised into a generalised scheme. The place of layered methods in foresight work is also examined, and the role of perceptual filters in interpretation is discussed.

A schema of four major “strata”, each potentially containing multiple sub‐layers, is developed. The strata range from, for example, short‐term trends in the shallowest level, through to long‐term macrohistorical forces at the deepest level.

The generalised scheme enables the practitioner to progressively move to greater levels of understanding as new layers of meaning are uncovered or constructed, as appropriate to the specific nature of the particular foresight engagement. The scheme also represents a template from which purpose‐built interpretive frameworks can be constructed, as needed, in foresight processes and work.

This paper provides a new, generalised and integrated approach to the use of interpretive frameworks in foresight work.

The basis for a broadened scanning framework is described, which may also function as a means for understanding how human minds filter their perceptions of the world. The framework is based on the Four‐Quadrant Integral model of Ken Wilber and the Spiral Dynamics model of Don Beck and Chris Cowan. An analytical tool (cross‐level analysis) is presented for examining views of the world in terms of both the perceptual filters of the viewer and the aspect of the world being viewed, a technique which is also useful for analysing how other scanners do their scanning. A notation for cross‐level analysis is presented and described, with examples of its use.

Expanding on the findings of the SOPIFF research project, this paper aims to identify eight futures schools of thought, which are analyzed and critiqued through an integral framework. As “Part II” of a previous publication, it seeks to focus on the lower (plural) quadrants.

The paper adapts Ken Wilber's integral theory to clarify various philosophical orientations to the future. It also adapts Fredrich Polak's approach to futures as a matter of “social critique and reconstruction”; however, the approach is global, civilizational, and integral, so it proposes civilizational critique and integral reconstruction as a method for evaluating futures schools of thought.

The IF framework is found to be a valuable theoretical and analytical tool for clarifying images of the future; it shows lines of development within each quadrant and interactions between quadrants, illustrating the effectiveness of the four‐quadrant approach.

It further illuminates the “global problematique” expressed in the SOPIFF project and proposes the IF framework as a way to interpret those research findings.

This approach to futures/foresight studies broadens the range and offers more depth to conceptions of the future, so it should help to develop/improve futures methodologies/practices in general.

Civilizational critique and integral reconstruction of images of the future imply unprecedented social change.

The paper should help futurists to see and interpret the “bigger picture” of civilizational futures through revealing the “crack” of the modern image of the future, how it relates to the current world crisis, and what is needed to heal the crack, so a new vision of a preferred future can emerge.

The paper evaluates trends shaping the post-pandemic reality. The framework adopted is a case study of the V4 region (Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary) that illustrates broader trends, their direction of change and their influence on the entire region. This paper aims to identify key trends and analyse how they can facilitate or hinder sustainable development.

The paper is based on a multidisciplinary literature review and an online real-time Delphi study carried out across four European countries.

The results indicate that the influence of negative trends on sustainability is much stronger than that of positive ones. Concerning the trends’ driving factors, the blockers of negative trends have a much higher influence on sustainability than the blockers of positive ones. The study shows that the most significant trends affecting sustainability are distributed throughout various fields of human activity, including geopolitics, social issues, education, the environment, technology and health.

The findings presented below can be used primarily by decision makers from the V4 region, who are responsible for crafting strategies regarding post-COVID recovery. The study illustrates trends that V4 countries and other European Union member states might be facing in the future and analyses how they relate to sustainability. The conclusions indicate that the most effective path to the desired level of sustainability is one that incorporates policies built around the blockers of negative trends.

The importance of this study lies in its focus on countries that had previously received little attention in scientific analyses. The paper shows their possible developmental pathways and sheds light on the framework of integrated foresight and its applications in sustainability-related areas.

The purpose of this article is to examine the nature and type of methods used in futures studies and foresight work which are explicitly concerned with creating “forward views” and/or “images of the future” (“prospective” methods).

A new analytical technique, “mode‐level analysis”, is introduced and described, based on a classification of “modes” of futures thinking and levels of “depth” of interpretive frameworks. By choosing both a set of thinking modes and a series of interpretive levels as a basis, prospective methods may be analyzed in terms of which mode(s) and what level(s) they operate with or at.

Two modes of thinking and five levels of depth are chosen for this analysis. The resulting schema is used to classify such methods as: wildcards, forecasting, “trend breaks”, visioning, backcasting, and alternative histories and counterfactuals. An analysis is also carried out on the method of “scenarios”, revealing a variety of different approaches operating at multiple levels of depth. The historical development of prospective methods is also discussed.

Mode‐level analysis can be generalized to any number of modes or levels, depending on the application, context or objectives of the analyst. It may be used by academics for interest's sake and for teaching students, and by practitioners as both a design tool and a diagnostic one.

This paper introduces a new technique for classifying prospective methods, and may help lead to ideas for the creation of new methods.

Despite the common focus on studying future events, the study of risk management and foresight have developed as two segmented scientific fields. This study aims to investigate whether current risk management methodology is sufficient for long-term planning against threats from terrorism and other black swan events, and whether perspectives from foresight studies can contribute to more effective long-term security planning.

This study investigates the planning process of the rebuilding of the Norwegian Government Complex destroyed during a terrorist attack in 2011. The study examines whether security risk managers find current security risk management methodology sufficient for dealing with long-term security threats to the Norwegian Government Complex.

Current security risk management methodology for long-term security planning is insufficient to capture black swan events. Foresight perspectives could contribute by engaging tools to mitigate the risk of these events. This could lead to more robust security planning.

The main contribution of this paper is to investigate whether perspectives and methodology from foresight studies can improve current security risk management methodology for long-term planning and look for cross-fertilization between foresight and risk studies. A framework for scenario development based on security risk management methodology and foresight methodology is proposed that can help bridge the gap.

The purpose of this paper is to propose and discuss a new regional foresight methodology.

The first part describes the methodology and the organizational process adopted for implementing foresight at the regional level and highlights the criticalities. The research methodology is based on a case study. The case is the analysis of the industrial and regional sectors and the technological families in the Lombardy region.

This methodology analyses trends, technologies and industries, returning a set of qualitative and quantitative indicators. Then, it aggregates them, building two matrixes (trends/technologies and technologies/industries). Finally, it evaluates the future importance of a technology (the attractiveness of a technology for the long-term competitiveness of the regional main industrial sectors) and the capabilities of the regional industrial, technical and scientific system to develop specific technologies (feasibility for the regional system to develop the chosen technology).

The originality lies in an integrated analysis of the possible futures and their relation with the industrial world. Its value is as a tool to suggest policies and R&D investments. It is possible to provide a sound basis for science and technology policymaking.

Foresight is frequently used to establish science and technology investment priorities and develop corresponding technology and innovation support programmes. In the light of technology and innovation policy, many individual Foresight studies are undertaken which are separate and little linked with the broader policy scope and ambition. This paper aims to look at an approach towards a consistent Foresight system which is linked closely to science, technology and innovation policy.

The paper provides an in-depth case study of the Russian Foresight system. The case study is based on desk research and extensive experience of the authors with the system.

Russia has developed a systematic approach towards organising Foresight which involves and serves multiple stakeholders, including government, ministries, federal and regional agencies, higher education institutions, public research institutes, state-owned companies and private businesses and a large range of associations. Under the auspicious of a dedicated commission, targeted Foresight is undertaken with clearly defined scope for each. The paper finds that the Russian system is unique in its organisational structure and in the integration of Foresight with science, technology and innovation policy measures.

The paper describes all facets of the Russian Foresight system which has not been done before. It also outlines the practical steps to further develop and leverage the system.