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1 – 10 of over 21000The focus of this paper is to provide an assessment of the impact of imports from China on Indian manufacturing and capture the multifarious dimensions of India–China bilateral…
Abstract
Purpose
The focus of this paper is to provide an assessment of the impact of imports from China on Indian manufacturing and capture the multifarious dimensions of India–China bilateral trade flows. By examining the comparative disadvantage imports (RCA<1), the paper critically examines their significance on India's industry output and performance and underlines factors beyond trade competitiveness.
Design/methodology/approach
For examining the impact of India's manufacturing imports from China on industry performance, four stages of analysis is adopted. First, the imports with RCA <1 have been identified. For these, BRCA was also computed. Second, trends in industry performance associated with high imports from China. Third, for estimating the impact of imports on industry output, augmented production function was specified and estimated with imports from China as a potential determinant. And fourth, comparison of industry performance between India and China.
Findings
The impact of imports from China on industry output is positive and significant. A 1% increase/decrease in the share of China in world imports will result in output increasing by 0.31%. The rise in imports from China seems to be on account of non-availability of necessary intermediate and capital goods domestically, thereby making these imports critical and complementary for production. This negates the threat perception of imports from China.
Research limitations/implications
The paper recognizes the need for understanding the firm heterogeneity in import decisions and R&D intensity of imports. Across industries, the drivers for firms' decisions to import are “learning by importing’ and “self-selection” (Camino-Magro et al., 2020). Also, another important dimension at the firm-level analysis is the elasticity of substitution between foreign and domestic inputs. If the elasticity of substitution is low then high import barriers will lead to reduction of domestic output. These firm-level issues are important for effective policy interventions.
Practical implications
One, the inward looking focus of the industry which is exhibited in low export intensity will not provide the necessary impetus to propel the manufacturing sector to a higher technology frontier and translate the productivity gains to export competitiveness. Two, unless the domestic manufacturing is propelled from the current low/medium technology to high technology products, the current policy thrust on “self-reliance” cannot be realized.
Originality/value
Analysis is based on manufacturing imports with RCA<1 from China thereby underlining factors beyond trade competitiveness not covered by RCA methodology. Complementing the quantitative analysis with economic policy developments in China and India and contrasting the same has provided insights into the real factors determining India–China bilateral trade.
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Arvind Panagariya and Asha Sundaram
In this study, the authors aim to analyze India's trade performance from the period of liberalization until the recent financial crisis, and compare it to China's.
Abstract
Purpose
In this study, the authors aim to analyze India's trade performance from the period of liberalization until the recent financial crisis, and compare it to China's.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors then examine Indian trade and investment policy and also institutional factors that potentially determine these trade patterns and performance, especially where they differ from China's.
Findings
Finally, the authors highlight future trade policy challenges for India and also provide suggestions to ensure strong growth in trade and integration with the global market.
Originality/value
This paper contributes by performing a comparative analysis of the Indian and Chinese experiences under trade liberalization and also by outlining potential challenges for Indian trade policy in the future.
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China and India are pursuing cooperative arrangements while simultaneously maintaining their own independence, especially with respect to foreign policy. Today, decisions about…
Abstract
Purpose
China and India are pursuing cooperative arrangements while simultaneously maintaining their own independence, especially with respect to foreign policy. Today, decisions about cooperation are made on a case‐by‐case basis, opting for cooperation when necessary and competition where this strategy is justified. Maintaining a balance in a contradiction‐ridden relationship is important from the points of view of the national interests of both India and China. The purpose of this paper is to describe development in the notion of CHINDIA and provide some pointers for maintaining the balance between the two countries.
Design/methodology/approach
Learning from history and current happenings, the paper looks to the future of CHINDIA. A SWOT analysis is undertaken of the basic trade figures of the two economies in the context of the global environment and various bilateral moves. Trade details are assessed and analysed. A content analysis method is used to identify prevailing sentiments relayed to CHINDIA and its future.
Findings
This review identified strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats and sentiments relayed to CHINDIA. Together, these form basic points for considering any future actions related to the two economies.
Originality/value
The study will be useful for academics and business professionals working in the area of international business/relations and those engaged in tracking development in CHINDIA for strategic ends. Policy makers can streamline their efforts, taking into account the pointer that emerged for this study.
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S. Mahendra Dev and Funing Zhong
China and India have to provide food security to 1.36 billion and 1.25 billion populations, respectively. The purpose of this paper is to address the roles of trade and stock…
Abstract
Purpose
China and India have to provide food security to 1.36 billion and 1.25 billion populations, respectively. The purpose of this paper is to address the roles of trade and stock management in achieving food security in these countries, such as the impacts of trade on consumer and producer prices and incomes of farmers and others and implications for food security, and the impact of stock management on price stability, availability, access and nutrition.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper is based on secondary data and literature on these issues. It compares the policy tools of trade and stock management used in India and China for food security purpose, in terms of long-term efficiency, in order to provide better understanding on how to achieve food security through public interventions.
Findings
Although stock is an important tool for food security, it is likely to be costly if used for price support and redistribution purposes. Trade might provide cheap food to enhance access to food, the impact on domestic producers and the volatility in world market may lead to serious problems. A carefully designed policy combining stock management and trade may help achieving food security.
Research limitations/implications
This paper relies on existing literature of current issues and policies, and tries to conduct comparative study on India and China, the two largest countries in the world. The scale and depth of the study are restricted by authors’ knowledge, hence may not be adequate in addressing those important issues.
Practical implications
Both India and China are undergoing policy review regarding food security, under pressures in domestic market and from multi-nation negotiations. This study may provide better understandings of the issues related to policy reform and trade negotiation.
Originality/value
Though a large portion of factual materials are adopted from existing literature and statistics, the analyses are those of authors.
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Ananda Jayawickrama and Shandre M. Thangavelu
The purpose of this paper is to examine the trade linkages and degree of export competitiveness between Singapore, China and India.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the trade linkages and degree of export competitiveness between Singapore, China and India.
Design/methodology/approach
Balassa's export performance index and the dynamic RCA index was adopted, as suggested by Kreinin and Plummer to identify the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of the above countries in industrial products by SITC 1‐ and 2‐digit levels. The Spearman's rank correlation coefficient is used to identify the degree of complementarity between RCA indices.
Findings
Given the abundant resources, China and India have comparative advantage in a broad range of manufactured goods as compared to Singapore. From the disaggregated analysis at 2‐digit level, the paper finds that the Singapore and China exports are complements, although the degree of complementarity has being declining over time. Meanwhile, Singapore and India exports are found to be stronger complements and stable over time. The results also show that China and India exports are strong substitutes. The paper also finds that the export specialization of China and India has experienced significant changes and shifting to new export products over time.
Originality/value
Given the recent trade agreements between China and Singapore and India and Singapore, it is important to examine the trade linkages (complementarity/substitutability of trade) between these countries. The paper highlights the importance of China and India in complementing countries such as Singapore as it climbs the technological ladder to maintain its competitiveness in the world market.
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Sagnik Bagchi and Surajit Bhattacharyya
This paper aims to explore whether India’s export basket in the bilateral intra-industry trade (IIT) with two of its top trading partners characterize robust export earnings or…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to explore whether India’s export basket in the bilateral intra-industry trade (IIT) with two of its top trading partners characterize robust export earnings or not. This is pertinent for two reasons. First, India has a persistent problem of current account deficit for over decades now. Second, whether India’s export diversification strategy by participating in global value chains to improve export share in the world market led to the problem of the fallacy of composition.
Design/methodology/approach
This study considers bilateral trade data between India-USA and India-China at the HS-6 digit level over the period 1990–2018. The magnitude of total IIT is computed using the Grubel and Lloyd (1971) index. This paper then uses the unit value dispersion criterion to disentangle the magnitude of total IIT into horizontal and vertical IIT. Through a stepwise econometric exercise, this paper explores the attributes of exported goods in the IIT basket in terms of the directions of ToT, export share and export-price elasticity.
Findings
Across the two country pairs, the major contributors to the upsurge in IIT are five manufacturing industry groups of chemical, plastics and rubber, textiles, base metals and machinery and mechanical appliances. Across the industry groups, the dominant form of IIT has been low vertical IIT. Most of the industry groups do not characterize robust export earnings as the commodity groups have an elastic demand and an increasing trend of Terms of Trade (ToT). The exceptions are the industry groups of chemicals and textiles in India-China and India-USA, respectively.
Research limitations/implications
The concern of slim export earnings in most industry groups offers scepticism in maintaining the sustainability of the current account. The problem of the fallacy of composition also cannot be ruled out given the dominance of low vertical IIT. This study argues that these industry groups need to engage in labour market reforms and require access to easy credit to achieve competitiveness in the world market.
Originality/value
The analysis performed in this paper attempts to integrate the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis in the context of IIT. Empirical evidence to such an issue is not profound.
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Javeria Maryam, Umer Jeelanie Banday and Ashok Mittal
In the recent international scenario, the rise of emerging economies, in particular, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) has gained ample of attention. The…
Abstract
Purpose
In the recent international scenario, the rise of emerging economies, in particular, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) has gained ample of attention. The global trade flows of the BRICS countries have significantly increased during the last one-and-a-half decade. The purpose of this paper is to examine the intra-BRICS and BRICS–EU trade flows.
Design/methodology/approach
To study the intensity of trade among BRICS countries and with EU, the Trade Intensity Index is employed for the period 2001–2015. Balassa’s revealed comparative advantage (RCA) index is computed for the assessment of comparative advantages of exports by BRICS countries in the year 2015 in the global markets. A comparative analysis of export similarity is done for India and other BRICS countries in EU.
Findings
The findings of trade intensity showed large bilateral trade flows among BRICS member. Russia has emerged as the main trading partner with EU in BRICS. For the year 2015, the comparative study of RCA at HS-two digits and HS-four digits classification highlights marginal structural changes in the export composition of these countries. The analysis revealed that Brazil and Russia have comparative advantages in natural resource-based products, while India and China possessed comparative advantages in manufactured and processed products. The export similarity index shows the presence of competition between India and China in EU.
Practical implications
This paper highlights the need for closer cooperation to promote intra-BRICS trade and to make structural transformations in the basket of trading products by them to have trade benefits at large.
Originality/value
Numerous studies are available on bilateral trade of BRICS members. However, limited studies are available to get a holistic view of intra-BRICS trade. This paper is an attempt to examine the BRICS countries trade profile both at global levels and within the group.
Mohammad Masudur Rahman and Chanwahn Kim
The purpose of this paper is to explore the trade and investment potential under the ambit of sub‐regional cooperation comprising the four contiguous countries of Bangladesh, China…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to explore the trade and investment potential under the ambit of sub‐regional cooperation comprising the four contiguous countries of Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar (BCIM).
Design/methodology/approach
The study addressed both intra‐regional and intra‐industrial trade, applying a dynamic gravity model of bilateral trade flows by product group of BEC's 1‐digit product classification, to set a panel data for the period of 1992‐2009.
Findings
The analysis reveals that higher trade transaction costs and tariff between each pair of countries reduce the trade flow. One of the major findings of the paper is that a large part of BCIM's trade has remained unrealized and the trade transaction cost is one of the major trading barriers prohibiting the growth of BCIM intra‐regional trade. The paper concludes that liberalization of non‐policy barriers will spur BCIM's trade, particularly in a time of ongoing global economic and financial crisis.
Practical implications
The study reinforces that improvement in infrastructure that leads to less trade transportation costs should be a necessary step in order to realize BCIM's trade potential. The paper concludes that liberalization of non‐policy barriers will spur BCIM's trade and economic cooperation, particularly in time of ongoing global economic and financial crisis.
Originality/value
This paper is the first‐ever attempt to estimate the trade potential of BCIM countries using dynamic gravity model.
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Shrabanti Maity and Anup Sinha
India is one of the largest tea producers and consumers in the world. Around 70% of Indian tea is consumed by domestic consumers. The world famous Darjeeling and Assam tea are…
Abstract
India is one of the largest tea producers and consumers in the world. Around 70% of Indian tea is consumed by domestic consumers. The world famous Darjeeling and Assam tea are India’s pride. Once India was the top exporter of tea in the global market, currently, it is lagging behind China, Kenya, and Sri Lanka. In the global arena, Indian tea is facing stiff competition from China, Kenya, and Sri Lanka. With this backdrop, the present study aims to investigate twin objectives. First, the changing growth pattern of India’s tea export is investigated. Along with this, the impacts of trade openness on India’s tea export are also scrutinized. The entire study is conducted based on the secondary data, compiled from the various issues of Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy published by Reserve Bank of India. The data are compiled for the period 1987–1988 to 2018–2019. The investigation of the first objective is facilitated by the Poirer’s Spline function approach. On the contrary, for the exploration of the second objective, we have calculated the “trade openness index.” The study concludes that initially with trade openness Indian tea industry was benefitting but the growth rate of tea export gets reduced over time. It is surprising that in the post-EXIM-2002–2007 phase the rate of growth of India’s tea exports has declined sharply. The study ends with suitable policy prescriptions.
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Sayed Gulzar Ganai, Javid Ahmad Khan and Showkat Ahmad Bhat
The export competitiveness has only calculated on only two aspects either comparatively advantageous or comparatively disadvantageous products for India or China. There is not any…
Abstract
Purpose
The export competitiveness has only calculated on only two aspects either comparatively advantageous or comparatively disadvantageous products for India or China. There is not any thorough study that has been undertaken for Indian manufacturing sector at a segregated level along with that of China. So, in the light of these shortcomings, the purpose of this study is to analyse the dynamics of export competitiveness of indian manufacturing sector vis-à-vis its emerging counterpart, china in the global market.
Design/methodology/approach
A modified revealed comparative advantage index has been used in two different phases of 2001–08 and 2010–18 to find the dynamic pattern of manufacturing exports of India and China in the world market.
Findings
The study revealed that India has shown a positive response in increasing its competitive positioned products from low-technology to medium-technology products during the study period. There has been a decline in the competitive positioned products of China and simultaneously China’s threatened product lines have shown an immense increment over the years. Moreover, Indian exports are concentrated to few low-technology and resource-intensive products, that share more than 50% of total exported value for its manufacturing in the global market, whereas, China is much diversified and the exported value is more scattered over its manufactured items.
Research limitations/implications
The study does not include the factors that impacted the export competitiveness of the sample economies and thus adds a limitation to this study.
Originality/value
As there is very limited research on dynamics of export competitiveness of Indian manufacturing exports at harmonised system 6-digit level with China, this study fulfils the gap.
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