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The aim of this paper is to provide a narrative review of previous research on tourism demand modelling and forecasting and potential future developments.

A narrative approach is taken in this review of the current body of knowledge.

Significant methodological advancements in tourism demand modelling and forecasting over the past two decades are identified.

The distinct characteristics of the various methods applied in the field are summarised and a research agenda for future investigations is proposed.

本文旨在对先前关于旅游需求建模和预测的研究进行叙述性回顾并对未来潜在发展进行展望。

本文采用叙述性回顾方法对当前知识体系进行了评论。

本文确认了过去二十年旅游需求建模和预测方法论方面的重要进展。

本文总结了该领域应用的各种方法的独特特征, 并对未来研究提出了建议。

El objetivo de este documento es ofrecer una revisión narrativa de la investigación previa sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros.

En esta revisión del marco actual de conocimientos sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros,se adopta un enfoque narrativo.

Se identifican avances metodológicos significativos en la modelización y previsión de la demanda turística en las dos últimas décadas.

Se resumen las características propias de los diversos métodos aplicados en este campo y se propone una agenda de investigación para futuros trabajos.

The purpose of the study is to investigate the financing channels and carbon emission abatement preferences of supply chain members, and further examine the optimal contract design of the retailer.

This paper develops a low-carbon supply chain composed of one retailer and one manufacturer, in which the retailer provides trade credit to the manufacturer. Considering the cap-and-trade regulation, the manufacturer with uncertain yield makes decision on whether to invest in emission abatement. There are bank loan and trade credit to finance production for the manufacturer and green credit to finance emission abatement investment. Meanwhile, the retailer may provide the manufacturer with three kinds of contracts to improve emission abatement efficiency, namely, revenue sharing, cost sharing or both sharing.

The results show that the retailer prefers to offer financing service at lower interest rate, but trade (and green) credit financing is always optimal for manufacturer and supply chain. The investment in emission abatement is value-added to all players. The sharing contracts offered by the retailer at lower sharing ratios can realize Pareto improvement of the system regardless of the financing scheme. However, comparing with the revenue or cost sharing contract, the existence of optimal sharing ratios makes the both sharing contract more favorable to the retailer.

The findings provide guidance for the emission-dependent manufacturer in financing and emission abatement decisions, as well as recommendations for the retailer to offer loan service and sharing contract.

This paper integrates green credit into bank loan or trade credit to analyze the financing decision of the manufacturer with uncertain yield and further considers the influence of three kinds of sharing contracts introduced by the retailer on improving operational performance.

This study aims to examine the effect of several types of ex post idiosyncratic deals (i-deals) on work–life balance and work well-being, focusing on the mediating effect of work–life balance on the relationship between ex post i-deals and work well-being as well as the moderating effect of gender on the relationship between ex post i-deals and work–life balance in the hospitality industry.

This study uses a questionnaire survey of 642 hotel managers from developed cities in China and analyze the data with structural equation modeling. This study also conducts on-site interviews among 20 hotel managers to support conclusions of the survey.

The results indicate that task i-deals as well as career and incentives i-deals significantly promote work–life balance, thereby indirectly improving work well-being. However, the impact of flexibility i-deals on work–life balance and work well-being is insignificant. The influence of career and incentives i-deals on work–life balance for males is slightly stronger than that for females.

This study has practical implications for hotel employers in terms of using various ex post i-deals to motivate and retain hotel managers by improving personal work–life balance and work well-being.

As one of early attempts to highlight the potential of i-deals to serve as solutions for work–life conflicts and unhappiness issues among hotel managers, this study provides novel insights into the mediating process between ex post i-deals and work well-being from the work–life balance perspective as well as distinct influences of various ex post i-deals on work–life balance for male and female managers.

This paper investigates whether China's R&D tax deduction policy triggers firms to manipulate their R&D expenditures upward.

This paper employs the ratio of actual tax savings as a proxy for the benefits of the R&D tax deduction policy based on manually collected and systematically cross-checked data. The relationship between tax benefits and abnormal R&D spending is estimated in a sample of Chinese A-share listed companies for the period 2007–2018.

The findings suggest that tax deductions lead to positive abnormal R&D spending and that this deviation in R&D spending may be attributed to firms' upward R&D manipulation for tax avoidance. The results also indicate that this behavior is more significant for the period after the policy revision, in non-HNTEs (high and new technology enterprises), and in firms with a high ratio of R&D expenses.

It is difficult to establish a sophisticated and unified model to identify the specific strategy of upward R&D manipulation that firms use to obtain tax benefits.

Managers should take into account upward R&D manipulation when designing governance mechanisms. Policymakers in developing countries may further pursue preferential tax policies that cover every stage of innovation activities gradually; the local provincial governments need to leverage their proximity and flexibility advantages to develop a tax collection and administration system.

This study contributes to the understanding of the complex effect of R&D tax incentives and helps more fully illuminate firms' upward R&D manipulation behavior from the perspective of tax planning strategies, which are underexplored in previous research.

This paper aims to analyze the research highlights, evolutionary process and future research directions in the field of tourism forecasting.

This study used CiteSpace to conduct a bibliometric analysis of 1,213 tourism forecasting articles.

The results show that tourism forecasting research has experienced three stages. The institutional collaboration includes transnational collaboration and domestic institutional collaboration. Collaboration between countries still needs to be strengthened. The authors’ collaboration is mainly based on on-campus collaboration. Articles with high co-citation are primarily published in core tourism journals and other relevant publications. The research content mainly pertains to tourism demand, revenue management, hotel demand and tourist volumes. Ex ante forecasting during the COVID-19 pandemic has broadened existing tourism forecasting research. The future forecasting research focuses on the rational use of big data, improving the accuracy of models and enhancing the credibility of forecasting results.

This paper uses CiteSpace to analyze tourism forecasting articles to obtain future research trends, which supplements existing research and provides directions for future research.

本文旨在分析旅游预测领域的研究重点、演化过程和未来的研究方向。

本研究使用 CiteSpace 软件对 1213 篇旅游预测文章进行了文 献计量学分析。

结果表明, 旅游预测研究经历三个阶段。机构合作包含国际机构合作和 国内机构合作, 需要持续加强国家之间的合作, 作者之间的合作多以校内合作为 主。高引用文章不仅发表在旅游领域的核心期刊还发表在其他专业的核心期刊上。 旅游预测研究的主要内容为旅游需求、收入管理、酒店需求和游客量。新冠疫情 期间的事前预测拓宽了现有的旅游预测研究。未来预测的研究重点在于合理利用 大数据, 提高模型的准确定以及提高预测结果的可信度。

本文使用 CiteSpace 分析旅游预测文章得到未来研究趋势, 既是对 现有研究的补充, 又为今后的研究提供方向。

Este artículo pretende analizar los aspectos más destacados de la investigación, el proceso evolutivo y las futuras orientaciones de la investigación en el campo de la previsión turística.

Este estudio utilizó CiteSpace para realizar un análisis bibliométrico de 1213 artículos sobre previsión turística.

Los resultados muestran que la investigación sobre previsión turística ha experimentado tres etapas. La colaboración institucional incluye la colaboración transnacional y la colaboración institucional nacional. La colaboración entre países aún debe reforzarse. La colaboración entre autores se basa principalmente en la colaboración dentro del campus. Los artículos con una alta cocitación se publican principalmente en las principales revistas de turismo y en otras publicaciones relevantes. El contenido de la investigación se refiere principalmente a la demanda turística, el revenue management, la demanda hotelera y los volúmenes turísticos. La previsión previa y durante la pandemia de la COVID-19 ha ampliado la investigación existente sobre previsión turística. La futura investigación sobre previsiones se centra en el uso racional de los big data, la mejora de la precisión de los modelos y el aumento de la credibilidad de los resultados de las previsiones.

Este artículo utiliza CiteSpace para analizar artículos de previsión turística con el fin de obtener futuras tendencias de investigación, lo que complementa la investigación existente y proporciona orientaciones para futuras investigaciones.

This study aims to obtain the speed and angle during safe and comfortable standing of elderly people. With the advancement of society, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the elderly to sit-to-stand (STS) independently and comfortably in a safe and comfortable manner. Safety is essentially a prerequisite for the elderly to achieve a comfortable STS. The speed, angle and power of the STS process can all affect safe STS. From the standpoint of health-care delivery and administration, comfortable STS can be realized easily by addressing the safety issues during STS.

This paper summarizes the research progress on speed and angle during safe and comfortable standing of older people. The authors analyzed the speed and angle of the STS using the Vicon optical gait acquisition system and plantar pressure sensor to find the appropriate angle and speed thresholds.

The center of gravity movement is a prerequisite for the elderly to achieve a comfortable STS. The authors found that the standing speed during the STS process should not be higher than 103.8 mm/s so that the elderly can stand comfortably and safely (safe and dangerous speeds are 72.8 mm/s and 125.2 mm/s). The limitations of waist angle, waist angle speed and the acceleration are also obtained.

This paper analyzes and summarizes the research status of speed and angle during safe and comfortable standing of elderly people, which is essentially a prerequisite for the elderly to achieve a comfortable STS. These results can lay the foundation for the development of assistive devices and related technologies that meet the needs of older adults.

This study aims to explore the role of international ambidexterity (IA) in improving the innovation capability of emerging market multinationals. In particular, the main purpose of this research is to study the relationship amongst digitalisation, IA and innovation performance (IP) amongst multinational enterprises in China’s healthcare industry.

The data for this investigation were collected from 134 listed companies in China’s healthcare industry during the study period. This study tested the hypotheses by constructing a two-way fixed-effects model.

The results show that both the balance dimension and the combined dimension of IA have significant positive effects on IP. Digitalisation not only has a direct positive effect on IP but also positively moderates the positive correlation between IA and IP.

Previous studies have not captured the relationship between ambidexterity, digitalisation and IP, and this study helps to fill in the gap and examine these associations in China’s healthcare industry. The results of this study provide valuable insights for healthcare industry managers to understand the role of ambidexterity and digitalisation in innovation in the context of internationalisation.

With the growing concern of various sectors of society regarding environmental issues and the promotion of sustainable development, green technology innovation is generally considered to be conducive to the long-term development of enterprises. However, because of the existence of agency problems, managers may have shortsighted behaviors. Then how will managers' shortsighted behaviors affect enterprises' green technology innovation?

This paper uses machine learning-based text analysis methods to construct a manager myopia index based on the data from A-share listed companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2015 to 2020. We examine the impact of manager myopia on green technology innovation in companies.

Our study finds that manager myopia significantly inhibits green technology innovation in companies. However, when multiple large shareholders coexist and the proportion of institutional investors' holdings is high, it can alleviate the inhibitory effect of manager myopia on green innovation. Heterogeneity tests show that the impact of manager myopia on green technology innovation is relatively significant in non-state-owned and manufacturing companies, as well as in the electricity industry. Robustness tests demonstrate that our conclusions remain valid after using propensity score matching to eliminate endogeneity problems.

From the perspective of corporate governance, this paper incorporates managers' shortsightedness, multiple large shareholders and institutional investors' shareholding ratios into the same logical framework, analyzes their internal mechanisms, helps improve corporate governance, enhances green innovation capabilities and has strong implications for the implementation of national innovation-driven development strategies and the achievement of “carbon peak” and “carbon neutrality” targets.

Food sustainability is a world-acknowledged issue that requires urgent integrated solutions at multi-levels. This study aims to explore how food firms can improve their sustainability performance through digital traceability practices, considering the mediating effect of sustainability-oriented innovation (SOI) and the moderating effect of supply chain learning (SCL) for the food supply chain therein.

Hierarchical regression with a moderated mediation model is used to test the proposed hypotheses with a sample of 359 food firms from four provinces in China.

Digital traceability has a significant positive impact on the three pillars of sustainability performances among food firms. SOI (product innovation, process innovation and organisational innovation) mediates the relationship between digital traceability and sustainability performance. SCL plays moderating roles in the linkage between digital traceability and both product and process innovation, respectively.

This paper contributes as one of the first studies to develop digital traceability practices and their sustainability-related improvements for Chinese food firms; it extends studies on supply chain traceability to a typical emerging market. This finding can support food sustainability practice in terms of where and how to invest in sustainability innovation and how to improve economic, environmental and social performance.