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1 – 10 of over 1000Hoang Long Chu, Nam Thang Do, Loan Nguyen, Lien Le, Quoc Anh Ho, Khoi Dang and Minh Anh Ta
This paper aims to assess the economic impacts of the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on Vietnam.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to assess the economic impacts of the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on Vietnam.
Design/methodology/approach
We constructed a general equilibrium model to assess the economic impacts of the CBAM on the macroeconomic indicators of Vietnam. We also constructed a generic partial equilibrium model to provide a zoomed-in view of the impact on each group of CBAM-targeted commodities, which is not possible in the general equilibrium model. Both the general equilibrium and the partial equilibrium models were calibrated with publicly available data and a high number of value sets of hyperparameters to estimate the variations of the estimated impacts.
Findings
The results suggest that the current form of the EU’s CBAM is unlikely to produce substantial effects on the overall economy of Vietnam, mainly because the commodities affected by it represent a small portion of Vietnam’s exports. However, at the sectoral level, the CBAM can reduce production outputs and export values of steel, aluminium, and cement.
Social implications
The CBAM by itself may not lead to significant decreases in greenhouse gas emissions, but it could provide a rationale for implementing carbon pricing strategies, which might result in more significant economic effects and help in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This highlights the necessity of supplementary policies to tackle global climate change.
Originality/value
We constructed economic models to evaluate the impacts of the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on Vietnam, both at the macroeconomic level and zooming in on directly impacted groups of commodities.
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Rahul Arora, Nitin Arora and Sidhartha Bhattacharjee
COVID-19 has affected the economies adversely from all sides. The sudden halt in production has impacted both the supply and demand sides. It calls for analysis to quantify the…
Abstract
Purpose
COVID-19 has affected the economies adversely from all sides. The sudden halt in production has impacted both the supply and demand sides. It calls for analysis to quantify the impact of the reduction in economic activity on the economy-wide variables so that appropriate steps can be taken. This study aims to evaluate the sensitivity of various sectors of the Indian economy to this dual shock.
Design/methodology/approach
The eight-sector open economy general equilibrium Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model has been simulated to evaluate the sector-specific effects of a fall in economic activity due to COVID-19. This model uses an economy-wide accounting framework to quantify the impact of a shock on the given equilibrium economy and report the post-simulation new equilibrium values.
Findings
The empirical results state that welfare for the Indian economy falls to the tune of 7.70% due to output shock. Because of demand–supply linkages, it also impacts the inter- and intra-industry flows, demand for factors of production and imports. There is a momentous fall in the demand for factor endowments from all sectors. Among those, the trade-hotel-transport and manufacturing sectors are in the first two positions from the top. The study recommends an immediate revival of the manufacturing and trade-hotel-transport sectors to get the Indian economy back on track.
Originality/value
The present study has modified the existing GTAP model accounting framework through unemployment and output closures to account for the impact of change in sectoral output due to COVID-19 on the level of employment and other macroeconomic variables.
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Shahrokh Shakerin, Seyed Nematollah Moosavi and Abbas Aminifard
The present study aims at quantifying the likely impacts of an environmental tax on macroeconomic variables and pollution in Iran.
Abstract
Purpose
The present study aims at quantifying the likely impacts of an environmental tax on macroeconomic variables and pollution in Iran.
Design/methodology/approach
The computable general equilibrium model, which allows the prediction of the economy-wide effects of any change in policy instruments, is applied.
Findings
The main findings reveal that gross domestic product, private consumption and income in both urban and rural areas will follow a declining trend as a result of environmental tax imposition. In a scenario with the highest level of tax, the predicted percentage change to the gross domestic product and private consumption is estimated at −21.32 and −40.96, respectively. In the same scenario, pollution emissions would decrease by 12.4–22.6% for CO2, CH4 and N2O.
Originality/value
This study uses a general equilibrium model to examine the effects of the carbon tax on environmental issues and household welfare, considering the unique conditions and regulations of Iran. While the related literature examines the CO2 tax, the current study covers more pollutants, including CO2, CH4, N2O, CO, SO2 and NOx. In addition, a distinguishing feature of the current study is that it applies a modified version of the social accounting matrix (SAM) database, which includes the heavy subsidies of energy products. Another significant feature of the current study is that it examines tax policy while tax rates are exerted endogenously (compared to previous studies).
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In this chapter, the author considers a three-sector general equilibrium model in the context of a developing nation to find out the impact of an increase in foreign capital…
Abstract
In this chapter, the author considers a three-sector general equilibrium model in the context of a developing nation to find out the impact of an increase in foreign capital inflow on the welfare level of the nation. Comparative static analysis reveals that an increase in the inflow of foreign capital causes redistribution across the factors of production and a reallocation of resources, reflected through the change in output. Moreover, the author considers the case of technology transfer and proves that an increase in foreign capital inflow makes the country better off in terms of social welfare even if the foreign capital is fully repatriated. Hence, this work shows that in the absence of any trade distortion, a partial investment liberalisation causes a welfare gain for a small open economy.
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Our result of this paper aims to indicate that the beta pricing formula could be applied in a long-term model setting as well.
Abstract
Purpose
Our result of this paper aims to indicate that the beta pricing formula could be applied in a long-term model setting as well.
Design/methodology/approach
In this paper, we show that the capital asset pricing model can be derived from a three-period general equilibrium model.
Findings
We show that our extended model yields a Pareto efficient outcome.
Practical implications
The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) model can be used for pricing long-lived assets.
Social implications
Long-term modelling and sustainability can be modelled in our setting.
Originality/value
Our results were only known for two periods. The extension to 3 periods opens up a large scope of applicational possibilities in asset pricing, behavioural analysis and long-term efficiency.
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The paper is devoted to modeling a pricing policy of competitive firms in a “closed” economy framework.
Abstract
Purpose
The paper is devoted to modeling a pricing policy of competitive firms in a “closed” economy framework.
Design/methodology/approach
The proposed model can be regarded as an analog to CGE model and is based on the intersectoral balance methodology incorporating linear demand functions for goods and services.
Findings
By performing different model experiments, we show that a certain degree of competition can bring more profit to all competing firms, than in case of complete absence of such competition, what is also supported by empirical investigation. This finding implies that monopolies may perform worse than competitive firms, what contradicts with the modern provisions of economic theory, stating that monopoly is the most lucrative type of market structure for a producer. The discovered effect occurs due to the aggressive pricing policy, adopted by monopolies, spurring up the inflation spiral, which is most obvious if monopolies are strongly interdependent in terms of production matrix. This inflation spiral drives prices too high, what negatively reflects on firms’ costs and, consequently, results in monopolies receiving less profit.
Originality/value
The proposed model can also be useful for understanding and assessing various economic consequences after different external or internal shocks, what is especially crucial when conducting monetary or fiscal policy.
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Ki Seong Park, Gyeong Lyeob Cho, Yong Min Kim and Heikki Hiilamo
This case study focuses on an alternative minimum-security model, the Safety Income (SI) Model, representing a nuanced departure from both established policies and UBI. StI is a…
Abstract
Purpose
This case study focuses on an alternative minimum-security model, the Safety Income (SI) Model, representing a nuanced departure from both established policies and UBI. StI is a welfare system that supplements households earning below the standard median income with 50% of the difference between the standard median and their current earnings. The quantitative case study presents the set-up of SI and assesses the cost of its implementation in South Korea. By employing a computable general equilibrium model method, the study compares the impacts of SI, UBI and the existing scheme in South Korea on income disparities, labor market outcomes and Gross Domestic Product.
Design/methodology/approach
In the past decade, the Universal Basic Income (UBI) concept has gained international significant traction as a potential remedy for poverty and inequality. However, the practical implications of UBI implementation remain under extensive debate. It is unclear if UBI is an effective model for poverty alleviation.
Findings
The analyses show that SI outperforms the other two welfare systems across all studied economic indicators. SI demonstrates more substantial reductions in income inequality compared with UBI and the existing scheme, minimal impact on unemployment rates compared with other schemes and a relatively modest decrease in GDP, making it a more favorable choice for South Korea when developing the minimum-security system within the specified budget constraint.
Originality/value
This research contributes to the discourse surrounding basic income, economic security, poverty alleviation and inclusive social policies.
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This paper seeks to explore the sensitivity of these parameters and their impact on fiscal policy outcomes. We use the existing literature to establish possible ranges for each…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper seeks to explore the sensitivity of these parameters and their impact on fiscal policy outcomes. We use the existing literature to establish possible ranges for each parameter, and we examine how changes within these ranges can alter the outcomes of fiscal policy. In this way, we aim to highlight the importance of these parameters in the formulation and evaluation of fiscal policy.
Design/methodology/approach
The role of fiscal policy, its effects and multipliers continues to be a subject of intense debate in macroeconomics. Despite adopting a New Keynesian approach within a macroeconomic model, the reactions of macroeconomic variables to fiscal shocks can vary across different contexts and theoretical frameworks. This paper aims to investigate these diverse reactions by conducting a sensitivity analysis of parameters. Specifically, the study examines how key variables respond to fiscal shocks under different parameter settings. By analyzing the behavioral dynamics of these variables, this research contributes to the ongoing discussion on fiscal policy. The findings offer valuable insights to enrich the understanding of the complex relationship between fiscal shocks and macroeconomic outcomes, thus facilitating informed policy debates.
Findings
This paper aims to investigate key elements of New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. The focus is on the calibration of parameters and their impact on macroeconomic variables, such as output and inflation. The study also examines how different parameter settings affect the response of monetary policy to fiscal measures. In conclusion, this study has relied on theoretical exploration and a comprehensive review of existing literature. The parameters and their relationships have been analyzed within a robust theoretical framework, offering valuable insights for further research on how these factors influence model forecasts and inform policy recommendations derived from New Keynesian DSGE models. Moving forward, it is recommended that future work includes empirical analyses to test the reliability and effectiveness of parameter calibrations in real-world conditions. This will contribute to enhancing the accuracy and relevance of DSGE models for economic policy decision-making.
Originality/value
This study is motivated by the aim to provide a deeper understanding of the roles macroeconomic model parameters play concerning responses to expansionary fiscal policies and the subsequent reactions of monetary authorities. Comprehensive reviews that encompass this breadth of relationships within a single text are rare in the literature, making this work a valuable contribution to stimulating discussions on macroeconomic policies.
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Fabiola Saavedra-Caballero and Alfredo Villca
We examine the twin deficits and the direction of its movement for the case of Bolivia, a natural resource-dependent country, using the database of (Kehoe et al., 2019) from 1960…
Abstract
Purpose
We examine the twin deficits and the direction of its movement for the case of Bolivia, a natural resource-dependent country, using the database of (Kehoe et al., 2019) from 1960 to 2019.
Design/methodology/approach
We combine a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model with a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to understand the transmission mechanisms.
Findings
Our results suggest the existence of twin deficits in Bolivia; however, causality in the Mundell-Fleming sense does not hold. While fiscal policy shocks explain current account deficits, current account shocks have a stronger effect over fiscal deficit. In fact, only 23% of the variance of current account forecast errors is explained by fiscal policy shocks; in contrast, 45% of the variance of the fiscal deficit is explained by current account shocks.
Research limitations/implications
The study is for a specific case, which is a limitation; however, other country samples can be included.
Practical implications
Based on the results of the work, policies can be recommended and designed to cushion the effects of external shocks.
Originality/value
According to the literature available for the Bolivian case, our work constitutes a significant contribution and, therefore, is original for this specific case.
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Trung Duc Nguyen, Lanh Kim Trieu and Anh Hoang Le
This paper aims to propose a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to assess the response from the household sector to monetary…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to propose a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to assess the response from the household sector to monetary policy shocks through the consumption function. Moreover, the transmission from monetary policy to household consumption and income distribution is experimented with through the vector autoregression (VAR) model.
Design/methodology/approach
In this study, the authors used the maximum likelihood estimation to estimate the DSGE and VAR models with the sample from 1996Q1 to the end of 2021Q4 (104 observations).
Findings
The DSGE model’s results show that the response of the household sector is as expected in the theory: a monetary policy shock occurs that increases the policy interest rate by 0.29%, leading to a decrease in consumer spending of about 0.041%, the shock fades after one year. Estimates from the VAR model give similar results: a monetary policy shock narrows income inequality after about 2–3 quarters and this process tends to slow down in the long run.
Research limitations/implications
Based on the research results, the authors propose policy implications for the SBV to achieve the goal of price stability, and stabilizing the macro-economic environment in Vietnam.
Originality/value
The findings of the study have theoretical contributions and empirical scientific evidence showing the effectiveness of the implementation of the SBV’s monetary policy in the context of macro-instability, namely: flexibility, caution and coordination of different measures promptly.
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