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Article
Publication date: 19 June 2019

Reiko Takahashi, Ryoji Nakamura and Yuichi Washida

The purpose of this paper is to create socio-technological future scenarios of Japan in the year 2050 and beyond, with a particular focus on energy and its relation to science and…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to create socio-technological future scenarios of Japan in the year 2050 and beyond, with a particular focus on energy and its relation to science and technology (S&T).

Design/methodology/approach

A workshop based on the scanning-based foresight method (SBFM) was conducted. Social change scenarios were created by participants browsed scanning materials about futuristic topics. Then, energy and society scenarios were produced by combining social change scenarios and future issues describing S&T related to energy in Japan in the future.

Findings

The participants who have different scientific and technological experties produced various images of Japan’s energy society around the year 2050. Based on these depictions, future visions of scenarios about energy and society were different in terms of consistency between S&T and future needs from current visions which focus on the transient of social awareness. The sociocentric view and confidence in self-made technology were found in the workshop and the participants believed some social problems would be solved with rich experiences and expertises in S&T even if human resources were limited. It was also found that each scenario portrayed an optimistic view of the relatively near future, in which innovative energy-related technologies are developed to optimize both personal satisfaction and social efficiency. On the other hand, we found rather pessimistic survival scenarios about the far future as concerns climate change and natural disasters.

Originality/value

Experts from several fields used their insight to apprehend an energy future and depicted, from scientific and technological perspectives, a vision of a different future society from the one that would emerge in a traditional linear scenario in which a proper balance is struck between the usage of S&T and its limitations. SBFM was also found to be beneficial for insight into energy S&T with its many uncertainties.

Abstract

Details

Mapping a Winning Strategy: Developing and Executing a Successful Strategy in Turbulent Markets
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78756-129-8

Abstract

Details

Strategizing
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78973-698-4

Article
Publication date: 28 July 2021

Andy Hines and Lakhana Dockiao

The rapidly changed global context for internationalization (IZN) over the next decade prompted a decision to use a futurist perspective for identifying issues to be considered in…

Abstract

Purpose

The rapidly changed global context for internationalization (IZN) over the next decade prompted a decision to use a futurist perspective for identifying issues to be considered in the organization’s next strategic plan. This paper aims to report on this project to identify current and strategic issues influencing the future strategy of the higher education (HE) IZN for Thailand on behalf of the Bureau of International Cooperation Strategy and the Office of the Higher Education Commission.

Design/methodology/approach

The research approach was a customized version of the University of Houston’s Framework Foresight method. It involved framing the domain with a description and domain map, scanning for signals of change within the domain and emerging issues analysis to produce a set of current and emerging issues. A planning step synthesizes a set of recommended actions.

Findings

The key findings reported in this paper are the identification of 14 current and emerging issues influencing the future of the IZN of HE in Thailand. The issues were organized along with the three horizons framework: H1: how are we [currently] doing? H2: what should we do next and H3, where do we want to go? The primary recommendation of this research reported on in this study is to consider the 14 issues for inclusion into the next strategic plan. Seven specific strategic options mapped over three phases were identified as well. The research reported here was carried out for Thailand, but the process could easily be adapted by other countries and other topics.

Research limitations/implications

The modified version of the University of Houston Framework Foresight approach has been applied successfully to many topics. The topic explored here is focused on one nation, Thailand. The authors feel the lessons are, however, broadly applicable.

Practical implications

The ability to use a futurist perspective to identify current and emerging issues is highlighted. The organizing of the issues using the three horizons framework proved to be particularly useful in helping the client to develop a sense of timing regarding the future, that is, when and to what degree to pay attention to the many issues that typically confront any organization.

Originality/value

The use of the three horizons framework in the analysis of the emerging issues provide benefits in two ways in situating the likely timing of signals of change in horizon scanning and “scan hits” both scanning for the identification of issues and organizing the resulting current and emerging issues along the three horizons with H1 current issues: how are we [currently] doing?; H2 emerging issues: what should we do next and H3 emerging issues, where do we want to go? The paper also includes a section exploring the impact of Covid-19 on the likely timing of the issues identified just before the pandemic hit, finding that timing of some issues would speed up, some would stay the same and some would slow down.

Details

On the Horizon , vol. 29 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1074-8121

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 April 2015

Shermon O. Cruz

The purpose of this paper is to provide a critical and informative exploration of the emerging roles and rising influence of the Global South in shaping the future of global…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to provide a critical and informative exploration of the emerging roles and rising influence of the Global South in shaping the future of global governance. Specifically, it inquires into the following questions: How is the Global South impacting the way we govern globally? What are the pushers, pulls and weights to the futures of global governance? Using Jim Dator’s alternative futures archetype, what is the future of global governance? What are the emerging issues and trends?

Design/methodology/approach

It uses Sohail Inayatullah’s futures triangle to map the drivers – the pushes, pulls and weights of global governance and Jim Dator’s archetypes – continued economic growth, collapse, conserver and transformation – to imagine and construct alternative futures of global governance.

Findings

The futures triangle analysis maps and reveals three diverse but causally linked Global South narratives of global governance. The pulls of the future include the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa leading the way, and emerging economies reinforcing the pluralization of global governance discourses and systems. New governance regimes create new global governance dynamics and North – South relations. Their increasing social, political and economic clout leads to new governance structures. The Global South’s rising human development index, economic growth, decreasing financial reliance, the rise of minilateralism and South – South cooperation is a push of the present. Weights are recurring financial constraints, their lack of technical capacity, existing international laws, stagnating bureaucracy, poverty, domestic issues and state centrism (among others). Four alternative global governance scenarios emerge: a harmonious world is everybody’s business – a state-centric and economic growth global governance future. Here, the dynamics of global governance remain the same as zero-sum thinking informs the rules of the game. In dangerous transitions and the rise of the rest, however, the status quo is disrupted as power shifts rapidly and detrimentally. Then, in mosaic of the old structure, the South embraces protectionism, and the old vanguards return. Finally, in all boats rise substantially, power is redistributed as emerging states gain larger, formal (and informal) leadership roles in global governance. The global world order is re-designed for the Global South. A world parliament is created and stronger regional confederation or unions emerge.

Research limitations/implications

This paper extensively utilizes existing and emerging literature, official reports, blogs, interviews, books and other digital texts on global governance. The sources relevance is analyzed using the futures triangle tool and dissected to present four detailed scenarios using Dator’s alternative futures archetype. This study seeks to initially explore alternative futures of global governance from the perspective of the Global South. While some studies have approached the topic, only a few authors have addressed global governance using futures tools and methods. The goal of this research is to map and explore some alternative futures of global governance. The paper is less useful in predicting what lies ahead. Its intention is to highlight the “rise of the different” and to create a space for more meaningful conversations on global governance.

Practical implications

This research could provide futurists, policy-makers, international relations scholars and global governance advocates some alternative narratives, frameworks and images of global governance. While it does not offer any specific structures and solutions, it offers a number of emerging issues and perspectives from the Global South that decision-makers and institutions might want to consider as they rethink global governance.

Social implications

This paper highlights the emerging roles and perspectives of the Global South in global governance. It identifies some “trading zones” and “emerging issues” that may inspire actors to create new global governance spaces, innovate alternative narratives and design new frameworks of global governance.

Originality/value

It maps and constructs some plausible scenarios of global governance that emphasize Global South perspectives while using futures tools and methods.

Abstract

Details

Governing for the Future: Designing Democratic Institutions for a Better Tomorrow
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78635-056-5

Article
Publication date: 4 October 2011

JiHo Hwang, YoungJun Kim, Soekho Son and Jongmin Han

Accurate and timely foresight of future trends and changes in science and technology (S&T) is a key to national competitiveness. The purpose of this paper is to describe recent…

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Abstract

Purpose

Accurate and timely foresight of future trends and changes in science and technology (S&T) is a key to national competitiveness. The purpose of this paper is to describe recent technological foresight conducted by the Technology Foresight Center at the Korea Institute of Science and Technology Evaluation and Planning. The authors also address current issues and problems encountered in the process of technology foresight (TF) in Korea.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors used TF methodologies which included bibliometrics, expert panels, SWOT analysis, and conferences/seminars.

Findings

The authors derived 20 future issues and 40 future needs in S&T from the five areas of global mega trends; then 200 future technologies were suggested with a time horizon of 40 years, from 2010 to 2050, for solving those future issues and needs. Finally, the authors suggested outlooks for technological development in the years 2020 and 2050.

Research limitations/implications

It is time to evaluate Korean TF exercises which were started 15 years ago. The evaluation of TF will help guide TF and inform policy and decision makers.

Practical implications

The findings can help policy makers shape future governmental S&T policy in Korea. The final result of this work was applied to the second S&T Framework Plan in Korea, in which 90 technologies were identified as national key technologies for the next five years, from 2008 to 2012.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors' knowledge, there are no studies suggesting not only future technologies based on solving future issues and needs but also outlooks for technology development in the years 2020 and 2050.

Details

Competitiveness Review: An International Business Journal, vol. 21 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1059-5422

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 July 2009

Nares Damrongchai and Evan S. Michelson

The purpose of this paper is to highlight the overall lack of focus of existing foresight analysis concerning the future of science and technology on the issue of poverty. The

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to highlight the overall lack of focus of existing foresight analysis concerning the future of science and technology on the issue of poverty. The paper looks to re‐orient the technology foresight community to adopting an explicit pro‐poor perspective when considering future developments in science and technology (S&T).

Design/methodology/approach

The paper presents a general overview of existing technology foresight studies from organizations located in North America, Europe, and Asia. By describing the key points made in a selection of foresight studies, the paper emphasizes the conceptual links between forward‐looking analysis related to S&T and poverty‐related issues.

Findings

The paper reaches two main conclusions about the role of S&T foresight and development. The first is that the foresight research community needs to interact more closely with the development community in order to enhance the value of the findings in each field to the other. Second, the pressing matter of poverty alleviation requires that the foresight community should come together and create a sense of urgency in issues that have long‐term implications but need immediate action and attention.

Research limitations/implications

This paper is limited to an approach that provides an overview of existing work in technology foresight. While no such review could be comprehensive, this paper provides examples of technology foresight analysis from a range of geographies, sectors, and perspectives to help mitigate this gap.

Practical implications

The argument suggests that technology foresight practitioners should make issues of poverty an explicit topic or category of analysis in future technology foresight activities. Including poverty issues in future scenario activities would go a long way to closing this gap.

Originality/value

This paper synthesizes ideas from a variety of forward‐looking studies addressing the future of science and technology and identifies the need to include poverty as a dimension for analysis in future studies. In addition, the paper provides an introduction to technology foresight work being conducted in Asia by the APEC Center for Technology Foresight.

Details

Foresight, vol. 11 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 December 2021

Kate Hutchings

The purpose of this article is to provide a systematic literature review of research on non-traditional expatriates (NTEs) and an agenda for future research.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this article is to provide a systematic literature review of research on non-traditional expatriates (NTEs) and an agenda for future research.

Design/methodology/approach

The systematic literature review of NTEs 2010–2020 followed Moher et al.'s flow chart approach to undertaking a systematic literature review and included research on various categories of NTEs.

Findings

The article explains how the author developed an interest in NTEs and provides a brief distillation of the author's research on NTEs and its key contributions. The article then presents the findings of the systematic literature review of NTEs and highlights the key aspects and contributions of this research. The article examines the strengths and weaknesses of the body of research, how it relates to global mobility research broadly and presents some issues for future literature reviews.

Research limitations/implications

The article highlights the limited research undertaken on some types of NTEs and issues of construct definition. The article presents issues for future research on NTEs including examining a wider range of NTEs, the impact of changing locations for NTEs, identity and intersectionality of NTEs, and methodological issues within NTE research. Moreover, the call for future research suggests the need for greater construct clarity including proposing a new term to define this group, namely, minority expatriates.

Originality/value

The article is original in terms of building on earlier examinations of NTEs to provide a systematic literature review of NTEs 2010–2020 and an extensive agenda for further research in the field.

Details

Journal of Global Mobility: The Home of Expatriate Management Research, vol. 10 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2049-8799

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 May 2016

Maryam Eslami and Eboshogwe Imomoh

Nowadays with the rapid growth of futures market, trust issues are increasing, especially, for individual traders because of the existing risks. However, to date there is no study…

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Abstract

Purpose

Nowadays with the rapid growth of futures market, trust issues are increasing, especially, for individual traders because of the existing risks. However, to date there is no study that focuses on trust issues within online futures market and risks that threaten individual traders. This paper aims to understand trust issues in online futures market.

Design/methodology/approach

This study adopts an in-depth qualitative approach of online futures market in Malaysia through 30 interviews include senior managers, managers and individual traders who involve in futures online trading from three brokerage firms. Using agency theory, a new scale model, this study provides understanding on trust issues for traders in online futures market.

Findings

The paper provides empirical insights about trust issues that will occur as a result of information, risk and goal asymmetries between traders and brokers in online futures market. It suggests licensed and registered broker, platform familiarity, platform accessibility and usability, flexible contract size and leverage, providing segregated account and appropriate devices as key elements to overcome the mentioned asymmetries.

Originality/value

This is the first paper to investigate existing risk in online futures market and provide valuable implications for both traders and brokers to reduce the risk and increase the traders’ trust.

Details

Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, vol. 8 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1755-4179

Keywords

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