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The purpose of this paper is to create socio-technological future scenarios of Japan in the year 2050 and beyond, with a particular focus on energy and its relation to science and technology (S&T).

A workshop based on the scanning-based foresight method (SBFM) was conducted. Social change scenarios were created by participants browsed scanning materials about futuristic topics. Then, energy and society scenarios were produced by combining social change scenarios and future issues describing S&T related to energy in Japan in the future.

The participants who have different scientific and technological experties produced various images of Japan’s energy society around the year 2050. Based on these depictions, future visions of scenarios about energy and society were different in terms of consistency between S&T and future needs from current visions which focus on the transient of social awareness. The sociocentric view and confidence in self-made technology were found in the workshop and the participants believed some social problems would be solved with rich experiences and expertises in S&T even if human resources were limited. It was also found that each scenario portrayed an optimistic view of the relatively near future, in which innovative energy-related technologies are developed to optimize both personal satisfaction and social efficiency. On the other hand, we found rather pessimistic survival scenarios about the far future as concerns climate change and natural disasters.

Experts from several fields used their insight to apprehend an energy future and depicted, from scientific and technological perspectives, a vision of a different future society from the one that would emerge in a traditional linear scenario in which a proper balance is struck between the usage of S&T and its limitations. SBFM was also found to be beneficial for insight into energy S&T with its many uncertainties.

European welfare states, including Finland, have recently introduced reforms that aim to delay the average timing of retirement. The degree of success of these reforms will depend on future institutional and societal developments that influence retirement timing. The purpose of this paper is to identify such scenarios in the Finnish context.

The study employs the Delphi method by interviewing anonymous experts from a variety of relevant organisations and fields in Finland, then sending them a scaled on-line questionnaire from the initial findings to elicit views on the likelihood of different scenarios influencing retirement timing over the next 20 years.

While the experts perceived that a raised state pension age and a removal of early retirement options will inevitably delay retirement on average, multiple scenarios were believe to hinder this trend. These included domestic elderly care becoming more common, technology-induced restructuring of labour markets and shortening working weeks, all of which were associated with widening socioeconomic inequalities in retirement timing. The predicted inequalities were attributed to a polarisation concerning older workers’ abilities to extend their careers and to plan their retirement. The planned mass privatisation of health and social services in Finland was perceived to accelerate this outcome.

The study suggests that a significant policy challenge in face of upcoming societal trends is to make delayed retirement a more equally viable option.

This paper demonstrates the usefulness of scenario building for anticipating possible developments that may influence the success of policies aimed at delaying retirement.

The purpose of this study is to measure the predictive value of future scenarios prepared using horizon scanning. The future scenarios prepared at the initiative of the Japanese Government have had low predictive value. They have frequently failed to contribute to industrial development and caused social loss. Horizon scanning, which is a key methodology applied in foresight activities, has begun to be used in countries as part of their national innovation systems in lieu of conventional forecasting methods based on the assumption of technological innovation. Research was conducted to actually measure the predictive value of future scenarios prepared using horizon scanning.

An online survey in Japan was conducted on ordinary people’s attitudes. The questionnaires presented 20 scenarios regarding future society, which were created with the conventional method or horizon scanning method.

Survey results verified that horizon scanning-based scenarios provided significantly higher predictive value than scenarios prepared using conventional methods.

Implication 1: By eliminating bias in input data and perspectives adopted when considering scenarios, it may be expected that scenarios will be derived that have even higher “predictive value.” Implication 2: By setting the layers of anticipated outputs high and the fields broad, it may be expected that scenarios will be derived that have even greater “change.”

The relatively high rate for the predictive value of the horizon scanning method, more than 40%, validated in this study was significant.

This paper's objective is to provide improvement plans that take into account problems in the housing sector, as well as low fertility and demographic problems caused by aging, by suggesting long‐term policy directions considering all future possible changes in fertility and housing policies.

This research analyzes age specific fertility rates by socioeconomic index, composition of three scenarios about the total fertility rate, the forecast of the future population by the cohort component method, and the forecast of housing demand according to the Mankiw‐Weil (M‐W) model.

If the fertility rate increases through improvements in socioeconomic conditions, then we see that housing demand also increases. If the fertility rate level is higher than that of scenario 3, then a housing demand decrease comes later. However, even if the low fertility rate issue is addressed, the problem with the housing market due to the aging is expected to continue for the time being.

If the population decrease cohort is accumulated due to the continuously low fertility, then it will cause an increase in the reduction effect of housing demand. Considering housing spaces, the elderly require a relatively large amount of available space in Korea where the aged population is rapidly increasing. This increase in seniors could counterbalance the reduced demand for housing.

This is a long‐term‐oriented paper about housing demand and the changing trends in Korea, which is undergoing demographic changes due to low fertility and ongoing aging. We need to monitor fertility rates and the structure of population changes to achieve a stable housing market, and we should also recognize that these structural changes by age will have diverse ripple effects on housing demand.

How to derive policy implications from five future scenarios of transformed research and innovation (R&I) systems? This paper analyzes methodological and content issues of five future scenarios of transformed R&I systems. The aim of this paper is to provide an outlook on strategic policies capable of facilitating or moderating these transformative changes in R&I practices is discussed in light of overarching intentions to foster “responsible” ambitions (in Europe and beyond, discussed as responsible research and innovation, RRI).

The paper elaborates a four-step methodology to assess the scenario’s policy implications: first, by articulating the scenario implications for six core dimensions of R&I systems; second, an RRI assessment framework is developed to assess in each scenario opportunities and limitations for transforming R&I systems towards responsibility goals; the third involves a cross-scenario analysis of similarities and differences between the scenarios, allowing the identification of robust policy options that make sense in more than one scenario. The last analytical step includes again the richness of the individual scenario assessments aiming to provide a broader outlook on transformative policy orientations.

The paper concludes with outlining the contours of a future-responsible R&I system together with some suggestions for transformative policy orientations that aim to govern the R&I system towards such a future, as a source of inspiration and reflection.

The analysis is based on five future scenarios that do not systematically cover future developments external to the R&I system.

An outlook of strategic policies capable of facilitating or moderating these transformative changes in R&I practices is discussed in light of the overarching European Union goal of encouraging the performance of RRI.

This paper provides inspirational anticipatory strategic intelligence for fostering the responsible ambitions of research with and for society.

This article outlines European ICT development scenarios to 2010, presents scenarios for the adoption of these technologies and network services and identifies scenarios for associated economic and social change pertaining to accelerated globalization through e‐commerce; the increased dominance of immaterial information services contributing to greater sustainability of development; and the enormous increase in diversity of the geocultural characteristics of services available anywhere in the world. The main assumption is that the ICT revolution is the key driver of globalization and dematerialization of economic activity: the shift to higher added value in immaterial services and in the information content of manufactured products.

In the current scenario, with rapid socioeconomic transformation occurring in all aspects of society, the adversities experienced by older adults have come to the forefront. The lived experiences within joint families are making it harder for the elderly to adjust to the changed familial setup. In such a situation, they undergo many problems which are most often overlooked and considered not worthy of serious attention. Loneliness and isolation are the most crucial and serious issues experienced by the elderly within the nuclear family. After spending a significantly larger part of their lives within large families, with caring people, interdependent, adjusting to the changing familial setup has become hard and strenuous. Moreover, lack of emotional support is yet another major concern of the elderly. As they grow older, care and emotional support become necessary to maintain an effective and active life in old age. However, such emotional support and care that the joint family offered is missing in the changing familial setup. Now, in light of these issues, this paper aims to explore the multidimensional concerns of the elderly (60 years and above) who, on account of familial transitioning from joint to nuclear in Kashmir, are experiencing isolation and other, hard to adjust, life changes. The paper is based on 20 oral narratives conducted, over time, with elderly people undergoing life changes due to family transition from joint to nuclear. The finding of the study revealed that the elderly experience a greater degree of change in their lifestyle due to the family transition from joint to nuclear.

This is a qualitative study that describes the multidimensional concerns of the older adults. The study was conducted in the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir using in-depth face-to-face interviews with 20 respondents aged 60 years and above who have witnessed a transition in family from joint to nuclear and have undergone many problems during this transition. Apart from this, two interviews with the sons of older persons were also included in the study to know the status of age in the current situation. After the data was collected from the first 10 respondents, the study witnessed a data saturation, as the same set of results were obtained. Meanwhile, 3 more respondents were included in the study to make sure that no data was left behind; however, again same results were witnessed. This led the investigator to halt the data collection process. Thereafter, the data was then analyzed using Braun and Clarke's (2006) thematic analysis technique, which involved familiarizing oneself with the data, looking for themes, validating and refining themes, identifying and labeling themes and finally creating the report.

The traditional joint family is undergoing rapid transformation in the current scenario. With a trend toward the nuclearization of families, which resulted in the diminishing status of the elderly, the vulnerabilities of the elderly have come to the forefront (Kumar et al., 2014). The transition of the family from joint to nuclear can be difficult for the elderly as it involves the elderly having to adjust and adapt to a new social milieu, which can be quite complex as it involves major changes in their lifestyle and daily routine. The elderly may also experience difficulty with increased social isolation and reduced family interaction. Such problems may seem insignificant and trivial to the younger ones, but stepping into the shoes of the elderly would help us understand the intensity and vulnerability of such problems. This cultural shift is quickly making changes, in part due to the rise of individualism in modern societies and the existence of a consumerist perspective among the younger generations. Such situations lead to greater alienation and isolation among the elderly from society in general and the members of the family in particular.

The is an empirical study conducted to know the status of older adults in nuclear families.

The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario development (SD) as a method for engaging known challenges in collaborative research projects, i.e. SD is the construct under investigation.

Criticism of the dominant, rational approach to project management (PM) and its underlying hypotheses highlights a considerable PM research gap for research projects (research problem). The authors undertake a six-step constructive research approach to investigate if SD (the construct) constitutes a fruitful method to support the management of collaborative research projects. A two-part literature review summarizes known challenges in collaborative research projects and introduces the history and application of SD methodology. The work includes participatory action research (PAR) in two case studies, constituting a qualitative research method.

The authors found the SD method to be useful for structuring and analyzing intuitive project processes. However, using SD in the management of single projects presents some fundamental challenges. SD, like PM, struggles with issues related to myopic decisions, a “predict and provide” attitude with clear aspects of path dependency in the project front-end as well as inconsistent and/or missing identification of success criteria among different stakeholders.

This paper does not provide any comprehensive, normative account of scenario techniques or compare SD with other foresight and future studies methods. Although PAR is in itself a research method that demands systematic description and execution, the focus of this paper is the overall constructive research approach.

The paper offers a broadened repertoire of methods to describe and analyse project stakeholder situations (collaborative aspects) and to structure and balance the need for both rational and intuitive project processes (research aspects). The SD method also supports development of graphical storylines and facilitates the use of influence diagrams, event trees and cost/benefit analysis.

Although PM literature contains several references to SD, the practical application of SD at single-project level has, to the authors’ knowledge, never been described in the PM literature.

The purpose of this paper is to explore the feasibility of developing an adaptive strategy to address the impact of climate change in the context of flooding.

The paper analyses flood risk and highlights the need for an adaptive strategic plan for flood risk management under the impact of climate change. It introduces a framework for the development of an adaptive strategic plan. The paper identifies organizational issues (at the local government scale) associated with having an adaptive strategic plan and developing a methodology to address these issues. It also identifies the need for a strategic decision support system (SDSS) and conceptualizing the system in order to support adaptive planning principle.

This study identifies lack of adaptability as a gap in traditional strategic planning for addressing flood risk associated with climate change. An adaptive strategic plan has adequate flexibility, promptness and responsiveness to adapt itself to new realities as they emerge and can sustain itself and remain relevant in a changing environment. The study introduces a SDSS that is necessary to support the adaptive element of an adaptive strategic plan.

This study distinguishes between a strategy for adaptation and an adaptive strategy. Most research on the topic of adaptation to climate change have been focused on developing strategies that offer adaptive solutions to pressing problems such as flooding. For instance, they may recommend more investment on non‐structural methods for flood mitigation, as they are more adaptive than alternative structural methods and therefore more sustainable under climate change. An issue that has attracted less attention is the fact that the strategic plans themselves (or in a sense the decision‐making framework) need to be equally adaptive. Some of public institutions do not have adequate flexibility and promptness to change and rectify high‐level strategic plans. The study identifies the lack of an SDSS, which allows new scientific findings to be converted to new policies in a short period of time, as a reason for absence of promptness, responsiveness and flexibility in such organizations. This study makes an attempt to address this issue by suggesting a frame work that will enable a government institution to become more responsive to change.

Food sovereignty has increasingly become a common political framework for alternative food movements seeking for radical change in the agrifood system. The transformative potential of food sovereignty is context-dependent, resulting in different approaches and strategies in different territories. In this chapter, we address the case of Catalonia (Spain), as an example of global North food sovereignty movement, in which consumers play a predominant role. Based on five discourses on food sovereignty previously identified as a political proposal for social change in Catalonia, namely “activism,” “anti-purism,” “self-management,” “pedagogy,” and “pragmatism,” we discuss internal divergences within the movement that lead to convergences with other political trends in the agrifood system. Despite the movement converges in several critical points at a conceptual level, such as what is the meaning of food sovereignty, or its understanding of the food sovereignty proposal as a vehicle for deepening democracy, it has strong divergences at the operational level, that is, on how to achieve the social and political change it seeks. A structuralist or agency-focused vision of social change and the relevance assigned to ideological affinity among actors are core elements explaining such divergences. In this chapter, the authors explore these internal divergences within the Catalan food sovereignty movement, which at the same time lead to convergences with other repoliticization concepts within the agrifood studies literature (specifically food democracy, food citizenship, and political consumerism).