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The purpose of this paper is to create socio-technological future scenarios of Japan in the year 2050 and beyond, with a particular focus on energy and its relation to science and technology (S&T).

A workshop based on the scanning-based foresight method (SBFM) was conducted. Social change scenarios were created by participants browsed scanning materials about futuristic topics. Then, energy and society scenarios were produced by combining social change scenarios and future issues describing S&T related to energy in Japan in the future.

The participants who have different scientific and technological experties produced various images of Japan’s energy society around the year 2050. Based on these depictions, future visions of scenarios about energy and society were different in terms of consistency between S&T and future needs from current visions which focus on the transient of social awareness. The sociocentric view and confidence in self-made technology were found in the workshop and the participants believed some social problems would be solved with rich experiences and expertises in S&T even if human resources were limited. It was also found that each scenario portrayed an optimistic view of the relatively near future, in which innovative energy-related technologies are developed to optimize both personal satisfaction and social efficiency. On the other hand, we found rather pessimistic survival scenarios about the far future as concerns climate change and natural disasters.

Experts from several fields used their insight to apprehend an energy future and depicted, from scientific and technological perspectives, a vision of a different future society from the one that would emerge in a traditional linear scenario in which a proper balance is struck between the usage of S&T and its limitations. SBFM was also found to be beneficial for insight into energy S&T with its many uncertainties.

Energy systems are quickly in transition and their complexity has been dramatically increased. Although there are numerous studies and researches about future of energy in terms of technology or fuels, few studies have been done based on comprehensive socio-technical dimensions of energy systems’ futures. One key question to fill this gap is that how can we consider electricity as a sustainable common good/resource, beyond some conventional considerations related to public or private sector orientation? The purpose of this study is to find an acceptable answer for this question..

To achieve the purpose of this study, after reviewing some relevant studies, key effective factors on the future of energy have been recognized in an expert panel and structurally analyzed by Micmac software based on cross-impact analyze method. Thereafter, four scenarios for transforming the electricity distribution from a monopoly good to a common resource have been developed and described based on scenario workshops method..

Four scenarios for transforming the electricity distribution from a monopoly good to a common resource have been developed and described. These scenarios include “spider grid,” “local grid,” “intermediate grid” and “off-grid.” Furthermore, different dimensions of electricity as a common good/resource have been investigated. As a result, the authors find out that common resource is a creatable concept that can be referred to some goods depending on certain conditions.

Electricity, like any other resource with common characteristics, can be considered and treated as a common resource, depending on the way we generate, share and distribute it, ownership and property rights, management and decision-making mechanisms, social participation processes and governance criteria.

This paper aims to examine the effect of communication, resources, disposition and bureaucratic structure to the success of energy subsidy policy, to examine the effect of moderation of variable scenario of renewable energy policy on the influence of communication, resources, disposition and bureaucracy structure on the success of energy subsidy policy.

This study was purposively (based on specific objectives) conducted in Jakarta, which is associated with the implementation and subsidy policy scenario, the study focused on the center of government, namely, the capital city, Jakarta. Collection of data in this research survey was conducted in June-August 2017. The sampling technique was proportional stratified random sampling that took up most of the 770 members of Masyarakat Peduli Energi dan Lingkungan and Masyarakat Energi Terbarukan Indonesia using a representative sample of results that have the ability to be generalized. Based on the formula Slovin (Solimun and Fernandes, 2017), a sample of 145 respondents was obtained. The research approach used was a quantitative with the analysis tool called the generalized structure component analysis.

This paper exhibited that all relationships between variables have a p-value of 0.05 except the third moderation and fourth moderation relationship. So it can be said that all relationships between variables are significant except the relationship between the variables of moderation to the relationship between the disposition variable (X3) on the successful implementation of subsidy policy (Y) and the relationship between the moderation variable to the relationship between bureaucracy structure variable (X4) to the successful implementation of subsidy policy.

The originality of the research refers to the following: The Policy Theory described by Edwards III (1980), and reinforced by the findings of Ratminto and Winarsih (2005), and Bloom et al. (2009), that communication, resources, dispositions and bureaucratic structures affect the success of the energy subsidy policy. This becomes the formulation of a hypothesized research problem whether communication, resources, disposition and bureaucratic structure affect the success of the energy subsidy policy. In fact, the conditions in Indonesia are quite different from the Western world, and the system in Indonesia has embraced subsidies. Therefore, this study also examines the moderating effects of renewable energy policy scenarios in the relationship between communication, resources, dispositions and bureaucratic structures on the success of the subsidy policy energy. Given that there is no strong theory that examines the effects of moderation of these four factors on the success of the energy subsidy policy. Therefore, as the development of Edward III Theory, this study examines the proposition of whether renewable energy policy scenarios reinforce or weaken (moderation effects) on the effects of communication, resources, dispositions and bureaucratic structures on the success of energy subsidy policies.

Scenario planning is a useful approach that helps policymakers to better understand the complexity and uncertainties that lie in the future and to choose the right policy mix to support the development of renewable and affordable energy sources. In this regard, this paper aims to present renewable energy (RE) development scenarios in Iran in the horizon of 2030.

Following the intuitive logic school and the Global Business Network model, the authors identified seven driving forces, according to the expert’s judgment, by brainstorming techniques which influence REs development in the horizon of 2030. By prioritizing driving forces based on their importance and uncertainty, “sustainable and green economy” and “emerging technology development” are the most instrumental uncertainties and the authors formed a two-axis scenario matrix with each representing an axis.

The results suggest four main scenarios of “Transition to Sustainability with Green Gold,” “Towards Sustainability with Green Gold,” “Productivity with Black Gold” and “Desperation with Black Gold.” They include a wide range of possible situations of energy basket in the future ranging from dominance of fossil fuels to dominance of REs. The “Productivity with Black Gold” and the “Towards Sustainability with Green Gold” are the most probable scenarios of RE development by 2030 in Iran.

This paper indicates that the dominance of oil and gas resources would impede or at least slow down the development of renewable and affordable energy sources. Although the economic and environmental potentials and the inevitability of REs are well-understood, path dependence created by fossil fuels in Iran’s energy regime, either partially or fully, hinders the widespread development of REs which is the case in other resource-based countries as well.

Analysis of relationship between energy and growth offers the sustainable energy pathway for a country’s sustainable economic development. This study aims to focus on the evaluation of the Pakistan’s energy system using long-run energy alternative planning (LEAP) modeling framework through different growth scenarios.

Principal component analysis has been adopted for indicators index formation. Study period of 1980 to 2030 is covered by forward and backward simulations in LEAP software.

The study reveals that current energy policy does not have the potential to lead the country toward a desired goal of economic sustainability.

In falling off scenario, negative growth rate (-5 per cent) assumption is also debatable; LEAP shows an error in the analysis and takes the last positive available value for any further analysis as a default. This case could have been simply omitted from results but for research contribution, the computations for this case are also reported.

Long-range energy alternative planning model has been applied to answer the corresponding question for simulation period of 1980 to 2030 to better compare the past trend and future expectations. Critical analysis of four selected scenarios (BAU, moderate, advanced and falling off) indicate that energy policy of Pakistan is poorly managed to maintain energy system’s effectiveness.

As far as statistical difference is concerned, early years have more fluctuation; however, from 2009, curve flattens for energy consumption and energy demand. The increasing demand of energy impacts the society and hence disturbs all sectors.

Policymakers have been so dragged off from the main route to sustainability, despite all odds there is a huge unexplored potential in the country for use to move in step with the world for a better tomorrow. The study educates the policymakers to comprehend the future energy scenarios and make rational decisions based on the study outcomes.

Thinking and deciding about the future of the city as a combination of complex and uncertain systems is extremely difficult. This complexity, uncertainty and difficulty will be increased when our thoughts and decisions address the city’s long-term future. Considering these issues, the need for future thinking and alternate thinking in the process of urban management and planning becomes even more necessary. The purpose of this paper is to identify and explain the alternate futures of Tehran.

For this purpose, this study have tried to study alternate future images of Tehran in an archetypal form of “growth, collapse, disciplined society and transformed society” using “Dator’s Four Generic Alternate Futures” method.

These alternate futures, after identifying their key trends and drivers, have been narrated in the form of four scenarios called: “capital business center,” “crossing the fate of ray,” “Tehran family” and “Tehran investigators.” Increasing the authority and responsibility of the local governance, modification of Tehran urban management model and development of voluntary cooperation and democratic participation, are among the policy recommendations made on the basis of these images.

Achieving these images in parallel with identifying the most important challenges and opportunities in alternate futures will provide the basis for policy-making in Tehran’s future urban governance. It can be a creative model for developing future images for other cities.

This paper aims to identify all variables and parameters related to business and emission within the petrochemical industry. The variables and parameters specified will be modeled into a system dynamic model that will be a baseline for the proposed best scenario(s) to address the business issue related to emission reduction in the petrochemical industry.

Literature review and stakeholder interviews were conducted to define the key factors contributing to the emission reduction of the petrochemical industry. The key factors are then developed into a system dynamic model to measure the quantitative impact of changes in those variables on emission and industry profitability.

This paper provides an analysis of system dynamic model. It suggests that process optimization can lead to a slight amount reduction in emissions. In contrast, a significant reduction shows in the simulation result of bio-based feedstock utilization and implementation of advanced technology. To sustain the emission reduction, strong commitment from stakeholders and support from the government will play an important role.

This research is limited to problem analysis of the primary product (high-value chemical) of the petrochemical industry by only considering the changes in the key factors of emission reduction.

This paper includes implications for interventions that can be imposed to reduce emission while retaining the business profitability.

The contribution of this study is to find the best scenario that can boost emission reduction within Indonesia’s petrochemical industry.

This paper aims to report the author’s observations and opinions during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) 2014. Discussions presented focus on recent technological developments and their impacts on society with three plausible future scenarios; the energy agenda with new technological advancements and future energy partnerships; and the dynamics of Russia’s future development agenda amid the Ukraine crisis.

The paper includes a commentary on the SPIEF 2014 Forum. Ideas presented are extended through the review of relevant references and future scenarios.

Technological development will continue to shape societies and may even result with the transformation of social classes. Energy will remain as a top priority area on the global and regional socio-economic agenda, with political implications across the world and in Russia.

A number of research questions arose through the discussion on the relationships between science, technology and society; future energy technologies; and geo-politics.

Technological development will certainly have implications on society. The paper explores those impacts through “visionary”, “negative” and “different” scenarios. Similarly, the transformations in the energy sector will have broader social and environmental impacts.

With the original ideas presented, this viewpoint paper addresses some of the grand social, technological, economic, environmental and political challenges that societies face today.

This paper aims to: first, it studies expert opinions about the future of clean, decentralized energy technology in Australia; second, develop an interpretive and participatory foresighting methodology for a forthcoming study.

This paper reports a forecasting study about the future of clean energy. Driven mostly by economics and changing carbon policies, the energy sector is currently moving from fossil fuels to a variety of cleaner technologies. Energy experts have several incommensurate interpretations of how this change will happen. This paper describes the first phase of an ongoing study that foresight clean energy futures in Australia. By building on a participatory method in a scientific expert community, it describes the path from technological presumptions into four parallel yet interconnected scenarios. The paper also explores the social drivers behind these scenarios.

First, energy experts in Australia classify futures into four main scenarios: abundant, where energy will be mostly produced by solar cells; traded, where the future of energy lies in virtual power plants and microgrids; circular, which targets Australia’s NetZero goals through biomaterials, carbon capture and new powerful; secure, which secures the country’s energy supply through coal and nuclear energy. Second, they locate policy as the most important form of wildcards. The policy is multilayered from local to US politics and falls outside the scope of forecasting.

The most important limitations of the study are: first, its reliance on scientific and technological experts, which guarantees its scientific validity but may underrepresent the social drivers of energy; second, this study is a methodological pilot of a larger study that will target industrial, commercial and local drivers; third, its focus on Australia, where politics, the size of the country and climate shape the uptake of clean energy in specific ways, most notably in the case of rapid uptake of solar energy.

The main practical implications of the paper are its broad focus on clean energy futures and its participatory foresighting approach, which can be repeated in other studies.

The main social implication of the study is that it clearly shows that a technological perspective is necessary but not sufficient in understanding the future of clean energy. The paper also shows that local drivers importantly mold the future and should be taken into account in future studies and policy.

This paper makes two contributions. First, it organizes several technologies into four scenarios that clarify Australia’s clean energy futures better than a piecemeal study would do. Second, it developed and piloted an interpretive participatory methodology for studying futures by building on references from design research. This methodology will be used in subsequent studies.

Corporations need a structure for thinking through the development of a new energy/environment strategy and the business implications of different strategy alternatives. This paper aims to investigate how to develop a customized corporate energy strategy.

This four‐step process focuses on the major energy/environment issues requiring corporate decisions; it generates two alternate scenarios of the future that span the possibilities and identifies basic policy choices for corporations and also the tradeoffs to be made.

The paper finds that this process to develop a new energy strategy addresses the prospects that the way an organization manages its energy and environmental threats and opportunities over the next 15 years could invigorate or cripple it. The four major drivers of uncertainty for the future: the dynamics of energy supply and demand, global warming effects, society's environmental‐mitigation and remediation priorities, and world economic development outcomes.

Bill Ralston is the co‐author of the best‐practice guide The Scenario Planning Handbook (with Ian Wilson).

The four‐step process outlined here provides corporate executives the practical means to interpret the global forces buffeting them, to identify new pathways for creating value in the future and to get started.

This process to develop a new energy strategy evaluates the prospects that the way an organization manages its energy and environmental threats and opportunities over the next 15 years could invigorate or cripple it.