Search results

The paper aims to present an integrated foresight framework and method to support decision-makers who are confronted with today’s complex and rapidly changing world. The method aims at reducing the degree of uncertainty by addressing the inertia or duration of unfolding trends and by placing individual trends in a broader context.

The paper presents a three-layered framework and method for assessing megatrends based on their inertia or duration. It suggests that if long-term trends and key future uncertainties are studied in conjunction at a meta-level and placed in a broader multi-layered framework of trends, it can result in new insights.

The application of the proposed foresight method helps to systematically place a wide range of unrelated trends and key uncertainties in the context of a broader framework of trends, thereby improving the ability to understand the inertia, direction and mutual interaction of these trends.

The elaboration of identified trends and key uncertainties is partly case-specific and subject to interpretation. It is aimed at illustrating the potential use of the framework.

The paper presents a new approach that may, by itself or in combination with existing foresight methods, offer new means for anticipating future developments.

The use of the proposed framework has potential to provide better insight in the complexity of today’s rapid-changing world and the major transitions taking place. It aims to result in sharper foresight by reducing epistemic uncertainty for decision-makers.

The paper demonstrates how megatrends, Kondratieff waves and century-long trends can be placed in an integrated framework and analysed in conjunction.

The purpose of this paper is to review the strategic planning process of the Hong Kong Police Force (the Force) and its outcomes for the planning cycle of 2019-2021.

Based on an insider's perspective drawn from documentation, internal reports and field observation, this study is an analysis of the five-step strategic planning process of the Force as a case study over the two-year period by using the 3-H (Heart-Head-Hand) framework and futures studies.

This study demonstrates the Force's strategic management in practice. The 3-H framework and the Six Pillars Foresight Process are found to be useful tools in strategic planning. When the Heart, Head and Hand elements are developed and integrated as a mindset during the process, they help theorise the practice and experience of police officers towards a holistic and effective strategic management. Coupled with the foresight process, the Force will be more agile and outward focused in the Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous (VUCA) world.

This is the first study to apply the 3-H framework and futures thinking in analysing the process in a police organisation in Hong Kong. While strategic planning is an important process to set directions for an organisation to move forward, this study describes the process in terms of relevant practice and theoretical concepts. It is hoped that such experience can serve as reference for practitioners in other government departments and police organisations.

This study aims to explore how to overcome and address the loss of exploratory innovation, thereby achieving greater success in exploratory innovation. This phenomenon of loss occurs when enterprises decrease their investment in and engagement with exploratory innovation, ultimately leading to an insufficient amount of such innovation efforts. Drawing on dynamic capabilities, this study investigates the relationship between organizational foresight and exploratory innovation and examines the moderating role of breakthrough orientation/financial orientation.

This study used survey data collected from 296 Chinese high-tech companies in multiple industries and sectors.

The evidence produced by this study reveals that three elements of organizational foresight (i.e. environmental scanning capabilities, strategic selection capabilities and integrating capabilities) positively influence exploratory innovation. Furthermore, this positive effect is strengthened in the context of a high-breakthrough orientation. Moreover, the relationships among environmental scanning capabilities, strategic selection capabilities and exploratory innovation become weaker as an enterprise’s financial orientation increases, whereas a strong financial orientation does not affect the relationship between integrating capabilities and exploratory innovation.

Ambidexterity is key to successful enterprise innovation. Compared with exploitative innovation, it is by no means easy to engage in exploratory innovation, which is especially important in high-tech companies. While the loss of exploratory innovation has been observed, few empirical studies have explored ways to promote exploratory innovation more effectively. A key research implication of this study pertains to the role of organizational foresight in the improvement of exploratory innovation in the context of high-tech companies.

This paper contributes to the broader literature on exploratory innovation and organizational foresight and provides practical guidance for high-tech companies regarding ways of avoiding the loss of exploratory innovation and becoming more successful at exploratory innovation.

Future is rarely explicitly addressed or problematized in business network research. This study aims to examine the possibilities of developing a business actor’s future orientation to network studies and imports ideas and concepts from futures research to support the development.

The study is conceptual and interdisciplinary. The authors critically analyze how extant studies grounded in the sensemaking view and process research approach integrate future time and how theoretical myopia hinders the adoption of a future orientation.

The prevailing future perspective is restricted to managers’ perceptions and actions at present, ignoring the anticipation and exploration of alternative longer-term futures. Future time is generally conceived as embedded in managers’ cognitive processes or is seen as part of the ongoing interaction, where the time horizon to the future is not noticed or is at best short.

To enable a forward-looking perspective, researchers should move the focus from expectation building in business interaction to purposeful preparation of alternative future(s) and from the view of seeing future as enacted in the present to envisioning of both near-term and more distant futures.

This study addresses the growing need of business actors to anticipate future developments in the rapidly changing market conditions and to innovate and change business practices to save the planet for future generations.

This study elaborates on actors’ future orientation to business markets and networks, proposes the integration of network research concepts with concepts from futures studies and poses new types of research questions for future research.

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the evolving interpretations of the Covid crisis and its impact on hospitality and tourism.

Scenario planning paper following Framework Foresight about the Covid pandemic and its impact on hospitality and tourism. Research input was gathered from research reports in different disciplines and discussions with an expert panel.

The paper argues that hypothesized recovery scenarios were founded on hope and inaccurate extrapolations, and that hospitality and tourism may head for permanently lower volumes.

The paper contributes to the debate on tourism resilience and hopeful visions of a sustainable restart.

Instead of just focusing on direct pandemic impact and that of governmental measures, a third variable of consumer confidence will be decisive, and more important than expected by many initially, in future scenarios for hospitality and tourism.

The proposed scenarios that were designed with executive level industry input have so far proven more realistic than prevalent views of a swift recovery.

The trend toward subscription economy accelerated the rise of access-based consumption models for durable consumer goods, replacing individual ownership with subscription contracts. At the same time, disruptive platform businesses have arisen in several consumer markets, bypassing traditional value chains while growing through network effects. In a conceptual approach, the authors address the future market for durable consumer goods in light of developments toward access-based consumption, subscription models and platform business models.

In a conceptual approach, the authors apply a scenario analysis following the Framework Foresight method and address trends, constants, plans and projections shaping the future market of subscriptions for durable goods. The authors create a baseline scenario and two alternative scenarios for the future of consumer durables and thereby discuss platform growth stages and implications for manufacturer brands.

The rising market power of platform companies leads to a baseline scenario where these platforms enter the market of subscriptions for durable goods. Alternative scenario 1 addresses the successful market entry of new platform businesses. In contrast, alternative scenario 2 describes the rise of manufacturer brand platforms.

This conceptual research enriches the discussion of access-based business models by creating scenarios depicting possible future developments. Moreover, it adds to the increasing focus on platform business models and thereby addresses the role of traditional manufacturer brands in markets for durable consumer goods subscriptions.