Search results

A generic foresight process framework is outlined, based on prior independent work by Mintzberg, Horton and Slaughter. The framework was developed as part of work carried out by the author during the introduction of foresight into the formal strategic planning of a public‐sector university in Australia. The framework recognises several distinct phases, leading from the initial gathering of information, through to the production of outputs intended as input into the more familiar activities of strategy development and strategic planning. The framework is also useful as a diagnostic tool for examining how foresight work and strategy are undertaken, as well as a design aid for customised foresight projects and processes. Some observations and reflections are made on lessons learned from a two‐and‐a‐half year engagement as an organisationally‐based foresight practitioner.

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the research and literature through the development of the theme of competence foresight. In addition, the aim is to construct information pathways for the foresight mechanism, for the use of practitioners, to enable them to manage talent and competences with an anticipatory perspective.

The research strategy is theoretical research with interpretive concept analysis approach. The research compares, compiles and combines theories and perspectives of strategic human resource management and development, talent management, competence management and foresight.

The results combine the information pathways and elements of the pathways for the competence foresight mechanism. The main three pathways in the mechanism are the pathways for detecting the needed competences for strategy implementation, the pathways for detecting rapid changes and the loss of competences.

As talent management frameworks are organization specific, so are the mechanisms and information pathways for competence foresight. The results can be adjusted and developed to fit into other organizations.

The analysis and results provide the practitioners in human resources with new perspectives to use systematic foresight processes in talent management and development. The results can also be used for modelling the information pathways for the competence foresight mechanism in talent management software.

The research on human resources development and talent management does not deal with competence foresight. This paper addresses this deficiency and brings new, valuable perspectives of foresight and future studies for researchers and practitioners. This paper challenges further research on various aspects of competence foresight.

The aim of this paper is to identify ways for improvement of the foresight evaluation framework on the basis of analysis and systematisation of accumulated experience in the field of project management.

The paper is based on a detailed literature review devoted to an evaluation of foresight and traditional projects. The approaches to project evaluation in the field of project management were investigated, and the main steps of traditional project evaluation process were determined. The most commonly applied steps of foresight evaluation were identified by the analysis of recent foresight evaluation projects. The comparison of evaluation frameworks for foresight projects and traditional projects allows to provide recommendations for foresight evaluation framework improvement.

The paper identifies several lessons for foresight evaluation from project management. The elements which can enrich foresight evaluation framework are the following: the development of an evaluation model; the extensive use of quantitative methods; the elaboration of evaluation scales; the inclusion of economic indicators into evaluation; and the provision of more openness and transparency for evaluation results.

Given the importance of foresight evaluation procedures and the lack of a commonly applied methodological approach, the value of this paper consists in identifying a foresight evaluation framework and enriching it with elements of project management.

The paper aims to present an integrated foresight framework and method to support decision-makers who are confronted with today’s complex and rapidly changing world. The method aims at reducing the degree of uncertainty by addressing the inertia or duration of unfolding trends and by placing individual trends in a broader context.

The paper presents a three-layered framework and method for assessing megatrends based on their inertia or duration. It suggests that if long-term trends and key future uncertainties are studied in conjunction at a meta-level and placed in a broader multi-layered framework of trends, it can result in new insights.

The application of the proposed foresight method helps to systematically place a wide range of unrelated trends and key uncertainties in the context of a broader framework of trends, thereby improving the ability to understand the inertia, direction and mutual interaction of these trends.

The elaboration of identified trends and key uncertainties is partly case-specific and subject to interpretation. It is aimed at illustrating the potential use of the framework.

The paper presents a new approach that may, by itself or in combination with existing foresight methods, offer new means for anticipating future developments.

The use of the proposed framework has potential to provide better insight in the complexity of today’s rapid-changing world and the major transitions taking place. It aims to result in sharper foresight by reducing epistemic uncertainty for decision-makers.

The paper demonstrates how megatrends, Kondratieff waves and century-long trends can be placed in an integrated framework and analysed in conjunction.

This paper aims to introduce, unpack, explore, make sense and share Hiraya Foresight via the Engaged Foresight approach as a futures concept, framework and methodology to reconceptualize foresight and reframe anticipatory processes to enable the self and communities to reimagine visions of the future. This indigenous foresight process offers to strip the husk and break the shell of conscious, colonial anticipation and reveal and liberate unconscious imagination that enables ethical aspirations to emerge.

This paper introduces and examines the context, purpose and process of the four waves of the Hiraya Foresight Framework via the Engaged Foresight approach. These were constructed through the use of the Engaged Foresight approach, through workshops, a literature review and an action–learning approach. The first wave, lawak, looks into the breadth of foresight. The second wave, lalim, looks into the depth of foresight. Tayog, the third wave, looks into the peak of foresight. Finally, the fourth wave of foresight kababaang-loob contemplates the nature, values and wisdom of foresight.

This paper shares the processes, experiences and impacts through five case studies where the Hiraya Foresight Framework via the Engaged Foresight approach was applied. This paper shares the impacts of Hiraya Foresight in democratizing and indigenizing futures literacy.

This paper describes and offers Hiraya Foresight via the Engaged Foresight approach as an indigenous approach to decolonize futures studies and foresight practice.

The human efforts to be prepared better for the future challenges of natural disasters go back ages. Natural disasters occur when a natural event, such as an earthquake, triggers the social vulnerability. These natural disasters kill thousands of people worldwide annually and cause economic losses in millions of dollars. Moreover, the global cost of natural disasters has increased substantially, and mega-disasters occur when the need for recovery truly becomes national or international. There are several trends in nature and society, which suggest that this pattern may continue, with mega-disasters occurring more frequently in the future. In the past 100 years, the number of disasters and the number of people affected by these disasters have exponentially up surged. Thus, there is no other way to improve preparedness in a meaningful or diverse future-oriented manner.

This paper focuses on how to design and customize a conceptual foresight model in “disaster risk management” in Iran, and offers an executive model to help decision-makers in disaster management, through which an appropriate practical framework for the implementation of foresight has been developed.

The model has presented a possible framework for implementing a foresight practice within the context of disaster management. This paper particularly addresses different elements of a customized model, developed through a substantial literature review and comparative study for defining the suitable model in the disaster management context. The final model is validated using two rounds of the Delphi method, with the participation of national disaster management experts, practitioners and scientists.

Although the whole model could be used all around the world, the main source of data validating the proposed model is limited to the expert’s opinions in a developing country (I. R. Iran.) and the geographical conditions of Iran are considered as a core of attention in response to natural disasters. Based on the indicators for choosing Delphi participants and experts, only 43 qualified experts are selected to validate the model. The main focus of this research is on natural disasters issues.

This study showed that while there has been a scattered global effort to recognize the increasing uncertainties in diverse disciplines, very little work in academic foresight has been undertaken to identify how it could be implemented. In particular, a series of factors in foresight processes is identified based on the comparative study and some additional elements are added to precisely identify the disaster management context and the most suitable model for national foresight implementation in disaster management.

The main value of this research paper is to clarify the exact relationship between the two interdisciplinary fields; the relationship between the key concepts of “futures studies” and “disaster management” has been thoroughly established. Also, a specific conceptual model for enriching the “pre-foresight” stage and selecting a proper “foresight approach” in “disaster management” is provided. This model has been validated through two rounds of the Delphi method. Finally, a cumulative framework of foresight patterns that includes the new model is presented to be applied in areas especially related to “natural disaster management”.

The present paper aims to explore the potential of joint foresight exercises in serving joint programming, a concept highlighted in furthering the creation of the European Research Area (ERA).

The paper starts with setting the context, i.e. the ERA concept, and the importance of joint programming. It then explores the potential of joint foresight in serving joint programming. This is done by analysing the current situation of trans‐national foresight based on the EFMN pool of foresight exercises. Then, possible modes and issues of trans‐national foresight collaboration, as well as perceived benefits and challenges, are also examined in setting a framework for foresight collaboration.

Joint foresight is not carried out in a fully fledged mode, yet but both interest and potential is high. A framework for foresight collaboration can already be set. EFMN is a valuable source of information and also holds a central, synergistic and complementary role in relation to other sources in defining the way to go forward in joint foresight.

The framework for foresight collaboration can form the basis for strategic discussions across EU member states as well as for further research to clarify and enrich understanding of the governing conditions and variables.

The paper proves that EFMN is both a significant pool of information and holds a complementary role in defining the way forward in supporting joint programming under the ERA. The foresight collaboration framework first attempted here is also worth exploiting further.

This systematic literature review investigates the contribution of design thinking (DT) as a process and tool to drive innovation in a sustainable built environment (SBE) and develops a new model for sustainability research integrating DT and future thinking approaches toward achieving a unified DT and foresight notion for future research and applications.

This review was based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement. Open-access English articles published between 2000 and 2022 identified using the EBSCOhost, Emerald Insight, DOJA, JSTOR, Scopus and Taylor and Francis database searches were reviewed. The review framework deploys a previously proposed modified Ansoff matrix with an integrated innovation matrix to identify and analyze the challenges and opportunities for innovation growth in SBE. Additionally, a citation analysis was conducted to explore the impact of DT for innovation in SBE, and a proposed framework based on design by drawing on foresight theory was developed.

Research on DT for innovation in SBE faces the challenge of unanticipated impacts. According to the average number of citations per document, innovation associated with new solutions within a new context seems to become highly influential. Additionally, research gaps exist in the integration of foresight and DT into sustainability research to identify new contexts and solutions to SBE. A model of foresight design thinking (FDT) is proposed to guide future research and support the practical application of DT in sustainability.

This analysis was limited by the selection criteria as only certain keywords were used and English-only articles were selected. Future research should consider the use of DT for innovation in SBE using various important keywords, which would improve research findings and expand the contribution of DT to SBE.

The FDT model offers a new holistic framework for the iterative process of reframing and reperception, focusing on divergent and convergent thinking with the goal of contributing to SBE practices.

The integrated framework of DT and foresight can contribute to the study and development of sustainable innovation and a strategic shift toward a sustainable society.

The integration of DT, foresight and sustainability can broaden the horizons of sustainability research by systematically addressing future challenges related to SBE, which can be translated into feasible and innovative solutions. Thus, the FDT model complements the application of DT in sustainable innovation in this research field.

This paper aims to develop a framework for benchmarking the maturity of public sector foresight programs and outlines strategies that program managers can use to overcome obstacles to foresight program development in government.

The public sector foresight benchmarking framework is informed by a bibliometric analysis and comprehensive review of the literature on public sector foresight, as well as three rounds of semi-structured interviews conducted over the course of a collaborative 18-month project with a relatively young department-level foresight program at the government of an Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) country. The paper frames public sector organizations as “complex adaptive systems” and draws from other government initiatives that require fundamental organizational change, namely, “gender mainstreaming”.

Nascent or less mature programs tend to be output-focused and disconnected from the policy cycle, while more mature programs balance outputs and participation as they intervene strategically in the policy cycle. Foresight program development requires that managers simultaneously pursue change at three levels: technical, structural and cultural. Therefore, successful strategies are multi-dimensional, incremental and iterative.

The paper addresses two important gaps in the literature on public sector foresight programs by comprehensively describing the key attributes of mature and immature public sector foresight programs, and providing flexible, practical strategies for program development. The paper also pushes the boundaries of thinking about foresight by integrating insights from complexity theory and complexity-informed organizational change theory.

To outline and present a generalised scheme for using “layered methods” in foresight work.

A number of different approaches to “layering” in futures studies and foresight work are examined and synthesised into a generalised scheme. The place of layered methods in foresight work is also examined, and the role of perceptual filters in interpretation is discussed.

A schema of four major “strata”, each potentially containing multiple sub‐layers, is developed. The strata range from, for example, short‐term trends in the shallowest level, through to long‐term macrohistorical forces at the deepest level.

The generalised scheme enables the practitioner to progressively move to greater levels of understanding as new layers of meaning are uncovered or constructed, as appropriate to the specific nature of the particular foresight engagement. The scheme also represents a template from which purpose‐built interpretive frameworks can be constructed, as needed, in foresight processes and work.

This paper provides a new, generalised and integrated approach to the use of interpretive frameworks in foresight work.