Search results

This paper aims to introduce, unpack, explore, make sense and share Hiraya Foresight via the Engaged Foresight approach as a futures concept, framework and methodology to reconceptualize foresight and reframe anticipatory processes to enable the self and communities to reimagine visions of the future. This indigenous foresight process offers to strip the husk and break the shell of conscious, colonial anticipation and reveal and liberate unconscious imagination that enables ethical aspirations to emerge.

This paper introduces and examines the context, purpose and process of the four waves of the Hiraya Foresight Framework via the Engaged Foresight approach. These were constructed through the use of the Engaged Foresight approach, through workshops, a literature review and an action–learning approach. The first wave, lawak, looks into the breadth of foresight. The second wave, lalim, looks into the depth of foresight. Tayog, the third wave, looks into the peak of foresight. Finally, the fourth wave of foresight kababaang-loob contemplates the nature, values and wisdom of foresight.

This paper shares the processes, experiences and impacts through five case studies where the Hiraya Foresight Framework via the Engaged Foresight approach was applied. This paper shares the impacts of Hiraya Foresight in democratizing and indigenizing futures literacy.

This paper describes and offers Hiraya Foresight via the Engaged Foresight approach as an indigenous approach to decolonize futures studies and foresight practice.

The Institute for the Future (IFTF) has collaborated with the Rockefeller Foundation and its Searchlight function to create a framework for broad engagement in strategic thinking about ways to catalyze change in the lives of poor or vulnerable communities. This paper seeks to focus on this broad‐based approach.

Starting from the top‐down horizon scan of the foundation's Searchlight partners – a network of horizon scanning organizations – IFTF created a public database of signals of innovation and disruption in the domain of poverty and social change. This signals database was used to build a visual map of catalysts for change, creating a simple hierarchy of four catalyst types, each containing four action zones and a pivotal challenge. This map provided the language and framework for engaging a global community in a serious game to extend the vision of the Searchlight function and capture novel ideas for innovations that could improve the lives of those in marginalized communities.

With an estimated global reach of 160,000 views and 1,600 game players from 79 countries, the game produced more than 18,000 ideas about catalysts for change.

This framework of foresight (the signals database) to insight (the visual map of catalysts for change) to action (global strategic game) demonstrates a way to integrate top‐down expert foresight with bottom‐up strategic ideation on a global scale.

The main objective of this research was to combine the integration between two fields of knowledge – future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) and games. This study aims to capture the stakeholders’ actions and decision-making in a procedural, interactive and collaborative way to find a vision of the future.

The framework was designed from a literature review on the related research topics, exploring elements and methods, also how we brought the two fields together. The framework was structured in four steps: exploring – deciding – matching – evaluating. For each phase, deep reflections were described to understand the current situation, identify essential future issues and provide recommendations for action.

One attractive aspect of the FTA-games is the characteristics of each field but combined made it possible to evaluate future developments and trends. The elements present in games can boost FTA activities through interaction, engagement, experiences, collaboration and motivation, among other elements. Systematically, we seek to ensure traceability by identifying challenges, solutions, execution and results achieved and using tools and elements that make prospecting practical.

This article systematizes the connection between two fields in the form of a framework. At each stage of the framework, participants and strategists are challenged to seek solutions to future challenges, allowing these participants to engage in a common cause and make actions tangible. Game elements can be shaped to explore new avenues in FTA activities, as they are used in games in specific subject domains. These fields tend to be fragmented and are not integrated.

This study aims to explore how to overcome and address the loss of exploratory innovation, thereby achieving greater success in exploratory innovation. This phenomenon of loss occurs when enterprises decrease their investment in and engagement with exploratory innovation, ultimately leading to an insufficient amount of such innovation efforts. Drawing on dynamic capabilities, this study investigates the relationship between organizational foresight and exploratory innovation and examines the moderating role of breakthrough orientation/financial orientation.

This study used survey data collected from 296 Chinese high-tech companies in multiple industries and sectors.

The evidence produced by this study reveals that three elements of organizational foresight (i.e. environmental scanning capabilities, strategic selection capabilities and integrating capabilities) positively influence exploratory innovation. Furthermore, this positive effect is strengthened in the context of a high-breakthrough orientation. Moreover, the relationships among environmental scanning capabilities, strategic selection capabilities and exploratory innovation become weaker as an enterprise’s financial orientation increases, whereas a strong financial orientation does not affect the relationship between integrating capabilities and exploratory innovation.

Ambidexterity is key to successful enterprise innovation. Compared with exploitative innovation, it is by no means easy to engage in exploratory innovation, which is especially important in high-tech companies. While the loss of exploratory innovation has been observed, few empirical studies have explored ways to promote exploratory innovation more effectively. A key research implication of this study pertains to the role of organizational foresight in the improvement of exploratory innovation in the context of high-tech companies.

This paper contributes to the broader literature on exploratory innovation and organizational foresight and provides practical guidance for high-tech companies regarding ways of avoiding the loss of exploratory innovation and becoming more successful at exploratory innovation.

This paper discusses recent trends in public‐administration‐led foresight exercises from the perspective of how the choice of objectives and scope is reflected in the methods used. In countries where successive projects have been carried out, one can observe how the evolution in methods employed, aims to increase the impact and effectiveness of foresight. Organizing the discussion in terms of objectives departs from previous approaches in the literature which mostly distinguish between different foresight exercises according to the principal methodology used.

This article seeks to reflect on the role of key concepts in foresight and futures work. The goal is to explore a set of concepts and link them to the effects they have in the world of foresight practice. It is argued that concepts order foresight practice and that though each foresight context and practitioner is unique, concepts bring a sense of order and coherence to foresight work and futures thinking. This reflection is placed in the context of a set of first principles the author acknowledges as his starting place for futures thinking and foresight practice.

The paper takes the form of conceptual analysis.

Concepts have effects and these can be assessed based on their ability to increase social and personal resilience in contexts characterised by change, complexity and uncertainty.

Foresight practitioners clarify their own values and ethics through reflection on the concepts they use and the processes they deploy when working with clients.

More reflective foresight practice; greater conceptual clarity when reflecting on and communicating/teaching foresight and futures thinking.

This paper offers a basis for orienting foresight work towards the broader social goal of resilience through a deepened appreciation of how concepts inform process and structure meaning.

The science of Foresight differs from the commonplace notion of what a science is because it is a metadiscipline – a logical type of science higher than the logical type of disciplinary sciences. It is practical, uses transdisciplinary processes that combine scientific disciplines and often examines counterfactuals in a scientific manner. This study aims to demonstrate that Foresight is a science, by presenting a number of best practices and potential innovations in higher education that could facilitate obtaining skills for Foresight science.

The methods of scientific education that have served us well in the past are inadequate for metadisciplinary sciences such as Foresight. The paper discusses what metadisciplinarity is, using a variety of examples, and distinguishes it from disciplines and ways of crossing disciplinary boundaries. Understanding the essential characteristics of Foresight as a metadisciplinary science leads to identifying current best practices and possible educational innovations in undergraduate education that will facilitate obtaining Foresight skills. Throughout the paper, examples are drawn from the education and professional experience of the author in the USA and Europe.

This paper demonstrates that Foresight is a science and presents a number of best practices and potential innovations in higher education that could facilitate obtaining skills for Foresight science. It identifies barriers to those innovations and approaches to overcome them.

This viewpoint paper clarifies the meaning of the terms interdisciplinarity, transdisciplinarity and metadisciplinarity to identify the essential characteristics of Foresight as a science. Then, it identifies and advocates needed changes in North American higher education to provide earlier and more efficient opportunities for Foresight researchers and users to obtain the skills they need.

This paper aims to provide a meta-analysis of the main themes emerging from public domain foresight studies on the defence and security environment undertaken in the decade since the 9/11 attacks on the USA. The authors focus mainly on foresight studies undertaken in Europe.

The paper is based on a content analysis of public domain foresight studies.

Foresight studies on the defence and security environment reflect a shift in security thinking away from a focus on state-centric threats towards a much broader view of security risks that includes risks presented by the vulnerability of European society to the failure of critical infrastructure, to pandemics, environmental change and resource based conflicts. The authors place a particular emphasis on the treatment of technological change in these defence and security foresight studies and argue that the growing importance of dual-use technologies is likely to mean that defence will play a declining role as a sponsor and lead-user of advanced technologies in the future.

Foresight studies on the defence and security environment have grown in number since 9/11 not least in Europe. However, they have been the subject of little systematic analysis. This paper makes a contribution to such an analysis.

The purpose of this study was to determine in what ways the competence frameworks analyzed converge or diverge and whether they are similar enough to be considered equivalent.

This study is based on a comparative analysis of competence frameworks describing sustainability education and foresight and futures education.

This study finds that sustainability education and futures and foresight education differ in significant ways in terms of expected outcomes as described by competence frameworks. The two educational fields cannot be considered equivalent. Rather, we find that they are complementary.

This study is based on an analysis of competence frameworks that have been published in peer-reviewed publications. They do not necessarily reflect what is actually practiced in educational environments. Also, competence frameworks may be in circulation that have not been described in scholarly publications and are therefore not included in this study.

The results of this study can be helpful for further refining and developing both sustainability education and futures and foresight education by clarifying the different roles that they play in promoting the skills needed to address long-term challenges in uncertain futures.

The rapid rise in prominence of sustainability education, in particular, but also foresight and futures education, is indicative of current concerns about the future of our planet and the beings that inhabit it. There is a sense that a key role of education should be to contribute to a pursuit of positive futures for all. By clarifying how current educational practices address this need, this study contributes to the overall goal of education.

Sustainability education and foresight and futures education have been regarded as being at least similar enough that implementing one may preclude the necessity for the other. This study shows that there are significant differences between the two as they have been defined in published competence frameworks. In particular, it shows that sustainability education emphasizes the use of anticipatory intelligence for strategic planning, while foresight and futures education emphasize the generation of anticipatory intelligence. The two fields are found to be complementary in that they address different, but equally necessary, skills needed to address long-term challenges.

The purpose of this paper is to propose a conceptual model to unpack the relationship between organisational routines and strategic foresight integration.

Three moderating factors, actors mindfulness, organisational context and organisational ambidexterity, are used in a Routines-Foresight Model to explain how and when organisational routines might influence strategic foresight integration. In addition, the interactions between the ostensive and performative aspects of routines are linked to the concept of routines as generative structures to provide a solid theoretical foundation for the relationship between routines and foresight.

The success (or failure) of foresight integration is partly a result of the nature of interaction between the ostensive and performative aspects of routines within a focal organisation. As a result of the characteristic embeddedness of routines in organisations however, certain factors further act as moderators to contribute to a holistic explanation of how the ostensive and performative interaction influence foresight integration success.

This paper proposes that routines, whether seen from a change or stability-inducing perspective, could lead to success or failure in foresight integration depending on how the moderating factors (actor’s mindfulness, organisational context and organisational ambidexterity) are managed to accommodate feedback from an organisation’s external environment. In this way, the model proposed challenges present perceptions of routines as leading to successful change behaviours if flexibility is allowed or to failure if they are rigid and unchanging.

Cultivating strategic foresight involves the integration of foresight into organisational decisions and requires organisations to pay attention to understanding the organizing logic of its organizing routines and the contextual factors within which these routines are performed.

The paper draws on the organisational routines literature to develop new insights into the cultivation of organisational foresightfulness.