Search results

This paper aims to introduce, unpack, explore, make sense and share Hiraya Foresight via the Engaged Foresight approach as a futures concept, framework and methodology to reconceptualize foresight and reframe anticipatory processes to enable the self and communities to reimagine visions of the future. This indigenous foresight process offers to strip the husk and break the shell of conscious, colonial anticipation and reveal and liberate unconscious imagination that enables ethical aspirations to emerge.

This paper introduces and examines the context, purpose and process of the four waves of the Hiraya Foresight Framework via the Engaged Foresight approach. These were constructed through the use of the Engaged Foresight approach, through workshops, a literature review and an action–learning approach. The first wave, lawak, looks into the breadth of foresight. The second wave, lalim, looks into the depth of foresight. Tayog, the third wave, looks into the peak of foresight. Finally, the fourth wave of foresight kababaang-loob contemplates the nature, values and wisdom of foresight.

This paper shares the processes, experiences and impacts through five case studies where the Hiraya Foresight Framework via the Engaged Foresight approach was applied. This paper shares the impacts of Hiraya Foresight in democratizing and indigenizing futures literacy.

This paper describes and offers Hiraya Foresight via the Engaged Foresight approach as an indigenous approach to decolonize futures studies and foresight practice.

This paper aims to identify the aspects that social actors consider in constructing shared futures in communities. In their application in emerging countries, especially in the Global South, the socio-cultural particularities of communities and actors are often overlooked, generating friction or social conflicts. This paper presents two critical elements contributing to the debate: the importance of understanding Social Actors within a model of generating community futures in emerging countries; and the relevant factors that influence the actors in an exercise of building futures in communities.

From qualitative research, a case study of community foresight of the future was used: the future of Puerto Gaitán 2037 (Meta, Colombia). A method of information collection was applied from observation of the participants and analysis of documentation. The analysis method was the deductive qualitative analysis (DQA).

The participation of the social actors presents a model of five relevant elements that influence the actors for the successful construction of futures in communities. The first four factors, revealed from theory, are presented in real life. Likewise, a fifth factor is proven, Long-term thinking, which is evidenced by a model of application of futures studies for the specific context, applicable to the case of communities in countries of the Global South.

Although there are isolated examples of recommendations regarding studies to generate the future of communities, to the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study that presents concrete factors that contribute to guiding the construction of community futures from social actors, especially in countries of the Global South such as Colombia. It is also one of the first studies to use the DQA as a method of analysis in a topic of futures studies.

Studying previous science and technology (S&T) foresight activities reveals information that helps decision makers to redesign policy-making templates aimed at dealing with new millennium challenges. To propose policy recommendations about further S&T foresight programs in Iran, this paper aims to propose a three-phase process to study historical S&T foresight activities at national and sub-national level since 2005 to 2015, to analyze the state of selected activities to discover weaknesses and potential solutions and, finally, to provide strategies and tactics to improve further S&T foresight activities through an expert-based process.

This paper provides a three-stage methodology, designed to survey Iranian historical foresight practices (study) using scoping framework equipped with additional features, diagnosis and evaluating (analyze) and finally proposing recommendations to organize and implement more efficient further foresight practices (design) to initialize further practices in developing countries such as Iran.

Although concerns about future and the importance of foresight activities are raised however Iranian foresight community needs to be developed. As noted in Section 5, Iranian foresight facilitators and specialist are biased to limited methodologies and methods; therefore, creating foresight networks and developing communities is strongly recommended.

The main constraint of this research was lack of valid data in the case of some Iranian S&T foresight programs.

Iran as a developing country needs to plan for long-run programs; however, there is no integrated study which reviews and analyzes the previous attempts to dedicate insights about how to reframe existing foresight paradigms. As foresight practices facilitate the paths toward sustainability, analyzing and diagnosis of a series of foresight practices in a devolving country may initialize designing such efforts in less developed world.

Foresight is frequently used to establish science and technology investment priorities and develop corresponding technology and innovation support programmes. In the light of technology and innovation policy, many individual Foresight studies are undertaken which are separate and little linked with the broader policy scope and ambition. This paper aims to look at an approach towards a consistent Foresight system which is linked closely to science, technology and innovation policy.

The paper provides an in-depth case study of the Russian Foresight system. The case study is based on desk research and extensive experience of the authors with the system.

Russia has developed a systematic approach towards organising Foresight which involves and serves multiple stakeholders, including government, ministries, federal and regional agencies, higher education institutions, public research institutes, state-owned companies and private businesses and a large range of associations. Under the auspicious of a dedicated commission, targeted Foresight is undertaken with clearly defined scope for each. The paper finds that the Russian system is unique in its organisational structure and in the integration of Foresight with science, technology and innovation policy measures.

The paper describes all facets of the Russian Foresight system which has not been done before. It also outlines the practical steps to further develop and leverage the system.

The purpose of this paper is to propose a low-cost, high return model for implementing a programmatic foresight function that is collaboratively integrated with the organization’s existing policy, planning and intelligence (or policy research) functions. Focusing on government agencies, especially those supporting liberal democratic governments, the purpose of the current paper is to propose a new, practical, low-cost and high-return model for implementing a programmatic strategic foresight function that is collaboratively integrated with the organization’s existing policy, planning and intelligence functions. The paper describes the relevant organizational considerations and options for structural adjustments, and suggests how the proposed model can maximize decision-making effectiveness without disrupting pre-existing structures, operations and products. The paper further discusses the necessity and involvement of a central government foresight agency and a non-hierarchical distributed network linking the foresight units.

Possible solutions are considered with respect to costs of development and implementation, risk (likelihood, consequence and uncertainty) of the new function’s failure, direct negative or positive effect on the performance of existing functions, the level of cross-organizational involvement in or collaboration with the new function, the level of cross-organization tangible benefits and the level of vertical involvement, especially at the executive level.

With few exceptions, the implementation of foresight by governments has not been at all methodical, but has followed many different paths, where it has occurred at all. The approach proposed in this paper – establishing a central foresight agency, propagating individual agency-based small programmatic foresight units and virtual teams and creating a non-hierarchical distributed network to link all of them – appears to best meet the success criteria set out in the paper.

Governments, especially liberal democratic ones, and their agencies that have previously shied away from methodically implementing strategic foresight or that have attempted to do so without real success now have an approach that is likely to produce the desired results.

The paper creates a sound framework for governments, especially liberal democratic ones, and their agencies to consider and proceed with the implementation of foresight functions and networks to support them.

The proposed approach is entirely new and generally challenges current practices.

The aim of this study is to trace the factors that have contributed to the adoption and institutionalization of foresight practices within the Singapore Public Service, Government of Singapore.

This study discusses the history of the adoption and institutionalization of foresight practices in the Singapore Government; this study has carried out content analysis of secondary literature and conducted 11 in-depth semi-structured interviews with elite informants.

This study finds that the adoption and institutionalization of foresight practices in the Singapore Government was brought about by a combination of five factors. The most foundational factor in our model is the role of institutional entrepreneurs, who drew upon the symbolic representation of Singapore’s vulnerability to legitimize the use of foresight, thus resonating well with local technocratic groups to maintain steady economic progress. This study further argues that the underdevelopment of foresight in the local private and academic domains can be at least in part explained by the historical connotations of foresight that were uncovered.

As the findings are fruit of the authors’ interpretation of the secondary literature/interview data, they require further triangulation by future research.

This study presents the interpretation of elite informants’ accounts and historical documents to explain one of the most exemplar yet classified case studies of governmental foresight globally.

The purpose of this paper is to highlight the overall lack of focus of existing foresight analysis concerning the future of science and technology on the issue of poverty. The paper looks to re‐orient the technology foresight community to adopting an explicit pro‐poor perspective when considering future developments in science and technology (S&T).

The paper presents a general overview of existing technology foresight studies from organizations located in North America, Europe, and Asia. By describing the key points made in a selection of foresight studies, the paper emphasizes the conceptual links between forward‐looking analysis related to S&T and poverty‐related issues.

The paper reaches two main conclusions about the role of S&T foresight and development. The first is that the foresight research community needs to interact more closely with the development community in order to enhance the value of the findings in each field to the other. Second, the pressing matter of poverty alleviation requires that the foresight community should come together and create a sense of urgency in issues that have long‐term implications but need immediate action and attention.

This paper is limited to an approach that provides an overview of existing work in technology foresight. While no such review could be comprehensive, this paper provides examples of technology foresight analysis from a range of geographies, sectors, and perspectives to help mitigate this gap.

The argument suggests that technology foresight practitioners should make issues of poverty an explicit topic or category of analysis in future technology foresight activities. Including poverty issues in future scenario activities would go a long way to closing this gap.

This paper synthesizes ideas from a variety of forward‐looking studies addressing the future of science and technology and identifies the need to include poverty as a dimension for analysis in future studies. In addition, the paper provides an introduction to technology foresight work being conducted in Asia by the APEC Center for Technology Foresight.

The EU Framework Programme and the foresight community are both focusing on future developments in innovation. This paper seeks to answer the questions: How much can they learn from one another to enhance their visions on the future? Are both perspectives aligned?

This research used the Dynamo approach, which analyses the match and mismatch of innovation entities by characterising both by a codified taxonomy on innovation. This taxonomy is based on the experience of TNO in innovation. In total, 140 flagship foresight activities from the EFMN database are analysed, as well as the Working Programmes 2007‐2008 from FP7 Cooperation.

The findings show that the perspectives of FP7 and the foresight community on innovations in health are highly aligned. Some interesting mismatches are identified that can be taken up by FP8 and the foresight community. Only a limited number of innovation themes are not addressed by both perspectives.

These results can help the foresight community to focus on important innovation themes in health not generally addressed and give input to the new FP7 working for 2009‐2013.

The results of the study show a more detailed insight into what innovation topics foresight and FP7 are mentioning/addressing.