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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 6 April 2023

Ola Al Sayed, Noha Sami Omar and Abdelmoneam Khaled

This paper aims to discuss the main characteristics of the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region's capital inflows volatility. It also examines the effect of institutional…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to discuss the main characteristics of the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region's capital inflows volatility. It also examines the effect of institutional quality and information availability on capital inflows volatility in selected MENA countries (Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Tunisia) in the period 1996–2017.

Design/methodology/approach

The study's assessments are based on the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) and globalization indices. It also employs an updated data set of balance of payments indicators released by the International Monetary Fund. Moreover, the study uses econometric panel modeling of random effect model, with Driscoll-Kraay robust standard error, to analyze the relationship between capital inflows volatility, institutional quality and information availability.

Findings

The paper finds that both institutional quality and information availability are in an inverse relationship with the total capital inflows volatility in the MENA region. However, the findings vary across the different components of total capital inflows. For example, the volatility of foreign direct investment (FDI) declines, like total capital flows, as the two factors improve. However, the volatility of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) is negatively related to institutional quality but does not have any significant relationship with information availability. While the volatility of foreign other investments (FOI) decreases with the availability of information, but does not have any significant relationship with institutional quality.

Originality/value

This paper expands the limited literature regarding the determinants of capital inflows volatility. Furthermore, it is the first study that investigates the effect of institutional quality and information availability on capital inflows volatility in the MENA region.

Details

Review of Economics and Political Science, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2356-9980

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 28 February 2023

Gouda Abdel Khalek and Amany Rizk

This paper aims to obtain a recent estimate of the cost of precautionary foreign reserve accumulation that emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) had to endure to…

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to obtain a recent estimate of the cost of precautionary foreign reserve accumulation that emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) had to endure to protect themselves against the risks of financial globalization. In addition, the study estimates the cost of excess reserves in emerging market economies (EMEs) using various reserve adequacy indicators that reflect potential sources of foreign exchange drains and vulnerability in EMEs' balance of payments.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper begins by explaining the accumulation of foreign reserves in EMDEs as a self-protection strategy against the risks of financial globalization. Next, it sheds light on the different types of economic costs of foreign reserve accumulation. Finally, it estimates the cost of foreign reserve accumulation in EMEs during the period (1990–2018) and in EMDEs during the period (1990–2015) due to data availability.

Findings

Results indicate that the cost of accumulating foreign reserves as a self-protection strategy in EMDEs and EMEs' was huge compared to their development financing needs. Applying various reserve adequacy measures demonstrates that many of the EMEs were holding inadequate precautionary reserves in 2018. Actually, this reflects the significant increase in external short term debt that many of the EMEs have witnessed since the eruption of the global financial crisis (2008). Thus increasing reserves in EMEs with weak reserve buffers and higher external debt is critical as they are more vulnerable to external shocks and capital flow reversals. Also given the estimated huge costs of accumulating foreign reserves, EMDEs should accompany it by other complementary self-protection policies and liquidity management policies to free up resources for productive investment.

Originality/value

The study contributes to the literature by estimating the cost of precautionary foreign reserve accumulation imposed on EMDEs during an extended period of time that covers a decade after the onset of the global financial crisis. Also to the authors' knowledge, this is the first study that estimates the cost of excess reserves in EMEs using various reserve adequacy indicators including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) assessing reserve adequacy (ARA) approach.

Details

Review of Economics and Political Science, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2356-9980

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 8 February 2024

Peter Ngozi Amah

A stylized fact in finance literature is the belief in positive relationship between ex ante return and risk. Hence, a rational investor, by utility preference axiom can only…

Abstract

Purpose

A stylized fact in finance literature is the belief in positive relationship between ex ante return and risk. Hence, a rational investor, by utility preference axiom can only consider committing fund in asset which promises commensurate higher return for higher risk. Questions have been asked as to whether this holds true across securities, sectors and markets. Empirical evidence appears less convincing, especially in developing markets. Accordingly, the author investigates the nature of reward for taking risk in the Nigerian Capital Market within the context of individual assets and markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The author employed ex post design to collect weekly stock prices of firms listed on the Premium Board of Nigerian Stock Exchange for period 2014–2022 to attempt to answer research questions. Data were analyzed using a unique M Vec TGarch-in-Mean model considered to be robust in handling many assets, and hence portfolio management.

Findings

The study found that idea of risk-expected return trade-off is perhaps more general than as depicted by traditional finance literature. The regression revealed that conditional variance and covariance risks reveal minimal or no differences in sign and sizes of coefficients. However, standard errors were also found to be large suggesting somewhat inconclusive evidence of existence of defined incentive structure for taking additional risk in the market.

Originality/value

In terms of choice of methodology and outcomes, this research adds substantial value to body of knowledge. The adapted multivariate model used in this paper is a rare approach especially for management of portfolios in developing markets. Remarkably, the research found empirical evidence that positive risk-expected return trade-off, as known in mainstream literature, is not supported especially using a typical developing country data.

Details

IIMBG Journal of Sustainable Business and Innovation, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2976-8500

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 11 July 2023

Muskan Sachdeva and Ritu Lehal

Stock markets are considered as the largest and most important units for the development and growth of the economy. The present study attempts to provide a comprehensive view of…

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Abstract

Purpose

Stock markets are considered as the largest and most important units for the development and growth of the economy. The present study attempts to provide a comprehensive view of factors influencing investment decision making process of stock market investors. A multi group analysis of gender is also carried out on the proposed model.

Design/methodology/approach

The data of 402 valid responses are collected through structured questionnaires from individual investors of North India. SPSS 23 is used to do the descriptive analysis and AMOS 22 is used to establish the validity of the constructs and for hypotheses testing. For performing multi group analysis, several invariance tests have also been conducted to check the robustness of the model.

Findings

The results reveal that all the factors such as firm image, accounting information, neutral information, advocate recommendation and personal financial needs significantly influence investment decision making concluding image of the firm being the most influential factor and advocate recommendation being the least influential factor for investment decisions. No significant differences between males and females were found.

Research limitations/implications

The current study suffers from the limitation of restricted geographical area of North India. Moreover, there is also a scope to incorporate more demographic factors for predicting investment decisions.

Originality/value

This study incorporates a range of factors which covers all the aspects of investment decision making. This study also highlights the notion of signaling theory, thus contributing to the limited literature in Indian context.

Details

PSU Research Review, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2399-1747

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 1 February 2024

Phuong Thi Ly Nguyen, Nha Thanh Huynh and Thanh Thanh Canh Huynh

The authors investigate how foreign investment in securities market informs about the future firm performance in emerging markets.

Abstract

Purpose

The authors investigate how foreign investment in securities market informs about the future firm performance in emerging markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors define the independent variable, abnormal foreign investment (AFI) as the residuals of the foreign ownership equation. The authors regress foreign ownership on its first lag and factors and define the residuals as the AFI. The AFI is the over- or under-investment reflecting foreign conscious (clear-purpose) investment, thus better indicating how foreign investment affects firm performance. The dependent variable is Tobin’s q (Q), which represents the firm performance. Then, the authors regress the Tobin’s q next quarters (Qt + k) on the AFI current quarter (AFIt). The authors use a two-step generalized method of moments (GMM) and check endogeneity with the D-GMM model for the regression.

Findings

The results show that the current AFI is positively correlated with the firm performance in each of the next four quarters (the following one year). This positive relationship is pronounced for large firms, firms with no large foreign investors, liquid firms and firms listed in the active market. The results suggest that foreign investment might choose well-productive firms already. Also, the current AFI is significantly positively correlated with stock returns in each of the next three quarters. These results suggest that the AFI is informative up to one-year period.

Research limitations/implications

The results suggest that foreign investors (most of them are small) in the Vietnamese market might choose well-productive firms already. However, if the large investors have long-term investment in tangible, intangible, human capital and so on, and lead to a significant increase in firms’ performance is still the limitation of this paper.

Practical implications

The results of this paper may guide investors whose portfolios are composed of stocks with foreign investment.

Originality/value

This paper adds to the literature to enrich the conclusion of a positive relationship between foreign ownership and firm performance.

Details

Journal of Economics and Development, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1859-0020

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 27 April 2023

Daniel Pereira Alves de Abreu and Robert Aldo Iquiapaza

The aim of the study was to analyze the performance of Black-Litterman (BL) portfolios using a views estimation procedure that simulates investor forecasts based on technical…

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of the study was to analyze the performance of Black-Litterman (BL) portfolios using a views estimation procedure that simulates investor forecasts based on technical analysis.

Design/methodology/approach

Ibovespa, S&P500, Bitcoin and interbank deposit rate (IDR) indexes were respectively considered proxies for the national, international, cryptocurrency and fixed income stock markets. Forecasts were made out of the sample aiming at incorporating them in the BL model, using several portfolio weighting methods from June 13, 2013 to August 30, 2022.

Findings

The Sharpe, Treynor and Omega ratios point out that the proposed model, considering only variable return assets, generates portfolios with performances superior to their traditionally calculated counterparts, with emphasis on the risk parity portfolio. Nonetheless, the inclusion of the IDR leads to performance losses, especially in scenarios with lower risk tolerance. And finally, given the impact of turnover, the naive portfolio was also detected as a viable alternative.

Practical implications

The results obtained can contribute to improve investors practices, specifically by validating both the performance improvement – when including foreign assets and cryptocurrencies –, and the application of the BL model for asset pricing.

Originality/value

The main contributions of the study are: performance analysis incorporating cryptocurrencies and international assets in an uncertain recent period; the use of a methodology to compute the views simulating the behavior of managers using technical analysis; and comparing the performance of portfolio management strategies based on the BL model, taking into account different levels of risk and uncertainty.

Details

Revista de Gestão, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1809-2276

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 25 January 2024

Mert Akyuz, Muhammed Sehid Gorus and Cihan Gunes

This investigation aims to determine the effect of trade uncertainty on domestic investment (DI) and foreign direct investment (FDI) for the Turkish economy from the first quarter…

Abstract

Purpose

This investigation aims to determine the effect of trade uncertainty on domestic investment (DI) and foreign direct investment (FDI) for the Turkish economy from the first quarter of 2005 to the first quarter of 2020.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors adopt the vector autoregression (VAR) model augmented with Fourier terms. Using this methodology, the authors obtain the empirical results of the impulse-response functions and the variance decomposition analysis.

Findings

The empirical results demonstrate that a shock to trade uncertainty has a slight negative impact on DI for up to approximately 1.5 years, whereas its impact on FDI is negative but long-lasting. Moreover, the contribution of trade uncertainty to FDI is relatively higher than to DI in the error variance decomposition for the investigated period. These empirical results can be beneficial for shaping the Turkish authorities' trade policies in the following periods.

Research limitations/implications

These findings have implications within the macroeconomic setting. Government authorities can provide tax exemptions for specified sectors and debureaucratize investment processes for both domestic and foreign entrepreneurs. Additionally, institutional quality and property rights should be protected strictly and developed gradually.

Originality/value

This study is the first to examine the impact of world trade uncertainty on Türkiye’s DI and FDI. Because trade uncertainty might act as fixed costs, this creates the option value of waiting and seeing the market, and firms hesitate to incur investment.

Details

Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2515-964X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 3 October 2023

Miklesh Prasad Yadav, Shruti Ashok, Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, Deepika Dhingra, Nandita Mishra and Nidhi Malhotra

This paper aims to examine the comovement among green bonds, energy commodities and stock market to determine the advantages of adding green bonds to a diversified portfolio.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the comovement among green bonds, energy commodities and stock market to determine the advantages of adding green bonds to a diversified portfolio.

Design/methodology/approach

Generic 1 Natural Gas and Energy Select SPDR Fund are used as proxies to measure energy commodities, bonds index of S&P Dow Jones and Bloomberg Barclays MSCI are used to represent green bonds and the New York Stock Exchange is considered to measure the stock market. Granger causality test, wavelet analysis and network analysis are applied to daily price for the select markets from August 26, 2014, to March 30, 2021.

Findings

Results from the Granger causality test indicate no causality between any pair of variables, while cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence analysis confirm strong coherence at a high scale during the pandemic, validating comovement among the three asset classes. In addition, network analysis further corroborates this connectedness, implying a strong association of the stock market with the energy commodity market.

Originality/value

This study offers new evidence of the temporal association among the US stock market, energy commodities and green bonds during the COVID-19 crisis. It presents a novel approach that measures and evaluates comovement among the constituent series, simultaneously using both wavelet and network analysis.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 8 May 2024

Tapas Kumar Sethy and Naliniprava Tripathy

This study aims to explore the impact of systematic liquidity risk on the averaged cross-sectional equity return of the Indian equity market. It also examines the effects of…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to explore the impact of systematic liquidity risk on the averaged cross-sectional equity return of the Indian equity market. It also examines the effects of illiquidity and decomposed illiquidity on the conditional volatility of the equity market.

Design/methodology/approach

The present study employs the Liquidity Adjusted Capital Asset Pricing Model (LCAPM) for pricing systematic liquidity risk using the Fama & MacBeth cross-sectional regression model in the Indian stock market from January 1, 2012, to March 31, 2021. Further, the study employed an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (1,1) model to observe the impact of decomposed illiquidity on the equity market’s conditional volatility. The study also uses the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model to illuminate the return-volatility-liquidity relationship.

Findings

The study’s findings indicate that the commonality between individual security liquidity and aggregate liquidity is positive, and the covariance of individual security liquidity and the market return negatively affects the expected return. The study’s outcome specifies that illiquidity time series analysis exhibits the asymmetric effect of directional change in return on illiquidity. Further, the study indicates a significant impact of illiquidity and decomposed illiquidity on conditional volatility. This suggests an asymmetric effect of illiquidity shocks on conditional volatility in the Indian stock market.

Originality/value

This study is one of the few studies that used the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) to measure liquidity and market risks as specified in the LCAPM. Further, the findings of the reverse impact of illiquidity and decomposed higher and lower illiquidity on conditional volatility confirm the presence of price informativeness and its immediate effects on illiquidity in the Indian stock market. The study strengthens earlier studies and offers new insights into stock market liquidity to clarify the association between liquidity and stock return for effective policy and strategy formulation that can benefit investors.

Details

China Accounting and Finance Review, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1029-807X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 15 March 2024

Mohammadreza Tavakoli Baghdadabad

We propose a risk factor for idiosyncratic entropy and explore the relationship between this factor and expected stock returns.

Abstract

Purpose

We propose a risk factor for idiosyncratic entropy and explore the relationship between this factor and expected stock returns.

Design/methodology/approach

We estimate a cross-sectional model of expected entropy that uses several common risk factors to predict idiosyncratic entropy.

Findings

We find a negative relationship between expected idiosyncratic entropy and returns. Specifically, the Carhart alpha of a low expected entropy portfolio exceeds the alpha of a high expected entropy portfolio by −2.37% per month. We also find a negative and significant price of expected idiosyncratic entropy risk using the Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regressions. Interestingly, expected entropy helps us explain the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle that stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility earn low expected returns.

Originality/value

We propose a risk factor of idiosyncratic entropy and explore the relationship between this factor and expected stock returns. Interestingly, expected entropy helps us explain the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle that stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility earn low expected returns.

Details

China Accounting and Finance Review, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1029-807X

Keywords

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