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Article
Publication date: 27 September 2022

Visar Hoxha and Islam Hasani

The overall purpose of the study is to identify the impact of heuristics, prospect theory biases and personality traits on property investment decision-making of rank and file…

Abstract

Purpose

The overall purpose of the study is to identify the impact of heuristics, prospect theory biases and personality traits on property investment decision-making of rank and file individuals in Kosovo, with a concentration in Prishtina, which is the city with the largest number of investors and property transactions in Kosovo.

Design/methodology/approach

The present study used quantitative research with the questionnaire used as a research instrument. The questionnaire survey was conducted with 1,209 rank and file property investors in Prishtina, Kosovo. The sampling method used in this research was stratified random sampling.

Findings

The study finds that heuristics, prospect theory biases and personality traits as a whole model affect investment decision-making in Prishtina, Kosovo. Nevertheless, the study finds that not all dimensions of the constructed research model (heuristics, the prospect theory and personality) affect the property investment decision-making in Prishtina at the same level. Whereas prospect theory biases (regret aversion, framing and self-control) seem to very strongly influence property investment decision-making of rank and file investors in Prishtina, personality traits (conscientiousness, neuroticism and openness to new experiences) seem not to affect the real estate investment decision-making. Finally, heuristics biases also strongly influence the real estate investment decision-making with a strong statistically significant explanatory power but not to the same degree as prospect theory biases.

Practical implications

The present study contributes toward the understanding of the role that is played by heuristics, prospect theory biases and personality traits in Kosovo's property investment industry. More importantly, the implication of the results of the present study is that it goes some way toward enhancing understanding of heuristic and prospect theory-driven biases and their influence on property investment decision-making in a developing economy. The present study paves the way to further analyze why personality traits do not influence property investment decision-making in Kosovo.

Originality/value

The present study is the first quantification of the impact of heuristics, prospect theory biases and personality traits on the investment decision-making of rank and file individuals in Prishtina, Kosovo.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 41 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 May 2019

Carl-Christian Trönnberg and Sven Hemlin

The purpose of this study was to gain a better understanding of pension fund managers investment thinking when confronted with challenging investment decisions. The study focuses…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study was to gain a better understanding of pension fund managers investment thinking when confronted with challenging investment decisions. The study focuses on the theoretical question of how dual thinking processes in experts’ investment decision-making emerge. This question has attracted interest in economic psychology but has not yet been answered. Here, it is explored in the context of pension funds.

Design/methodology/approach

The sample included 22 pension fund managers. The authors explored their decision-making by applying the critical incident interview technique, which entailed collecting investment decisions that fund managers retrieved from recent memory (Flanagan, 1954). Questions concerned the investment situation, the decision-making process and the challenges and uncertainties the fund managers faced.

Findings

Many of the 61 critical incidents examined concerned challenging (mostly stock) investments based on extensive analysis (e.g. reliance on external analysts for advice; analysis of massive amounts of hard company and stock market information; scrutiny of company reports and personal meetings with CEOs). However, fund managers to a high degree based their decisions on soft information judgments such as experience and qualitative judgements of teams. The authors found heuristics, intuitive thinking, biases (sunk cost effects) and social influences in investment decision-making.

Research limitations/implications

The sample is small and not randomly selected.

Practical implications

The authors suggest anti-bias training and better acquaintance with human forecasting limitations for pension fund managers.

Originality/value

Pension fund managers’ investment thinking has not previously been investigated. The authors show the types of investment situations in which analytical and intuitive thinking and biases occur.

Details

Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, vol. 14 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1755-4179

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 October 2016

David Parker

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the property investment decision-making process of Australian unlisted property funds.

1585

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the property investment decision-making process of Australian unlisted property funds.

Design/methodology/approach

Drawing on previous research into property investment decision making by Australian REITs, a normative model of the unlisted property fund investment decision-making process is proposed. Based on exploratory investigation through semi-structured interviews with senior Australian unlisted property fund decision makers, a descriptive model of the property investment decision-making process by Australian unlisted property funds is developed. The normative model and descriptive model are compared and a prescriptive model of the Australian unlisted property fund investment decision-making process proposed.

Findings

A four-stage, 20-step process proposed in the normative model was found to be generally supported by the descriptive model developed, potentially comprising a possible prescriptive model for the Australian unlisted property fund investment decision-making process.

Research limitations/implications

Further research is required to investigate risk-return issues, whether the prescriptive model is generalisable across other property investment decision-making groups or over time and whether it may lead to “good” decisions.

Practical implications

The prescriptive model proposed may contribute consistency and transparency to the decision-making process, if adopted by Australian unlisted property funds, potentially leading to better decisions.

Social implications

Greater consistency and transparency in property investment decision making by Australian unlisted property funds may lead to the optimal allocation of capital and greater investor confidence in the sector.

Originality/value

The findings comprise the first possible prescriptive model of the Australian unlisted property fund investment decision-making process, forming a basis for comparative investigation of that process adopted by other property investment decision-making groups such as Australian REITs and Australian retail property funds.

Article
Publication date: 28 June 2022

Maqsood Ahmad

This article aims to systematically review the literature published in recognized journals focused on cognitive heuristic-driven biases and their effect on investment management…

2140

Abstract

Purpose

This article aims to systematically review the literature published in recognized journals focused on cognitive heuristic-driven biases and their effect on investment management activities and market efficiency. It also includes some of the research work on the origins and foundations of behavioral finance, and how this has grown substantially to become an established and particular subject of study in its own right. The study also aims to provide future direction to the researchers working in this field.

Design/methodology/approach

For doing research synthesis, a systematic literature review (SLR) approach was applied considering research studies published within the time period, i.e. 1970–2021. This study attempted to accomplish a critical review of 176 studies out of 256 studies identified, which were published in reputable journals to synthesize the existing literature in the behavioral finance domain-related explicitly to cognitive heuristic-driven biases and their effect on investment management activities and market efficiency as well as on the origins and foundations of behavioral finance.

Findings

This review reveals that investors often use cognitive heuristics to reduce the risk of losses in uncertain situations, but that leads to errors in judgment; as a result, investors make irrational decisions, which may cause the market to overreact or underreact – in both situations, the market becomes inefficient. Overall, the literature demonstrates that there is currently no consensus on the usefulness of cognitive heuristics in the context of investment management activities and market efficiency. Therefore, a lack of consensus about this topic suggests that further studies may bring relevant contributions to the literature. Based on the gaps analysis, three major categories of gaps, namely theoretical and methodological gaps, and contextual gaps, are found, where research is needed.

Practical implications

The skillful understanding and knowledge of the cognitive heuristic-driven biases will help the investors, financial institutions and policymakers to overcome the adverse effect of these behavioral biases in the stock market. This article provides a detailed explanation of cognitive heuristic-driven biases and their influence on investment management activities and market efficiency, which could be very useful for finance practitioners, such as an investor who plays at the stock exchange, a portfolio manager, a financial strategist/advisor in an investment firm, a financial planner, an investment banker, a trader/broker at the stock exchange or a financial analyst. But most importantly, the term also includes all those persons who manage corporate entities and are responsible for making their financial management strategies.

Originality/value

Currently, no recent study exists, which reviews and evaluates the empirical research on cognitive heuristic-driven biases displayed by investors. The current study is original in discussing the role of cognitive heuristic-driven biases in investment management activities and market efficiency as well as the history and foundations of behavioral finance by means of research synthesis. This paper is useful to researchers, academicians, policymakers and those working in the area of behavioral finance in understanding the role that cognitive heuristic plays in investment management activities and market efficiency.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 31 May 2022

Maqsood Ahmad, Qiang Wu and Yasar Abbass

This study aims to explore and clarify the mechanism by which recognition-based heuristic biases influence the investment decision-making and performance of individual investors…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to explore and clarify the mechanism by which recognition-based heuristic biases influence the investment decision-making and performance of individual investors, with the mediating role of fundamental and technical anomalies.

Design/methodology/approach

The deductive approach was used, as the research is based on behavioral finance's theoretical framework. A questionnaire and cross-sectional design were employed for data collection from the sample of 323 individual investors trading on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). Hypotheses were tested through the structural equation modeling (SEM) technique.

Findings

The article provides further insights into the relationship between recognition-based heuristic-driven biases and investment management activities. The results suggest that recognition-based heuristic-driven biases have a markedly positive influence on investment decision-making and negatively influence the investment performance of individual investors. The results also suggest that fundamental and technical anomalies mediate the relationships between the recognition-based heuristic-driven biases on the one hand and investment management activities on the other.

Practical implications

The results of the study suggested that investment management activities that rely on recognition-based heuristics would not result in better returns to investors. The article encourages investors to base decisions on investors' financial capability and experience levels and to avoid relying on recognition-based heuristics when making decisions related to investment management activities. The results provides awareness and understanding of recognition-based heuristic-driven biases in investment management activities, which could be very useful for decision-makers and professionals in financial institutions, such as portfolio managers and traders in commercial banks, investment banks and mutual funds. This paper helps investors to select better investment tools and avoid repeating the expensive errors that occur due to recognition-based heuristic-driven biases.

Originality/value

The current study is the first to focus on links recognition-based heuristic-driven biases, fundamental and technical anomalies, investment decision-making and performance of individual investors. This article enhanced the understanding of the role that recognition-based heuristic-driven biases plays in investment management. More importantly, the study went some way toward enhancing understanding of behavioral aspects and the aspects' influence on investment decision-making and performance in an emerging market.

Article
Publication date: 1 May 2007

Claire Roberts and John Henneberry

Studies of UK and US property investment markets have historically portrayed the decisionmaking process as an exercise in rational analysis. This notion is fundamentally flawed…

4351

Abstract

Purpose

Studies of UK and US property investment markets have historically portrayed the decisionmaking process as an exercise in rational analysis. This notion is fundamentally flawed as the concept of a perfect market has limited applicability to the real world context in which property investment decisions are taken. Investment decisionmaking is neither clinical nor methodical but is undertaken by imperfect players in imperfect markets using imperfect information. The purpose of this paper is to explore the decision making processes of investors.

Design/methodology/approach

A normative‐behavioural framework incorporating heuristics is used, a technique whose application in property research has previously been limited to valuation. The empirical vehicle for the research was an exploration of the spatial dimension of office property investment in different European contexts.

Findings

The findings of in‐depth case studies of investment decisionmaking in France, Germany and the UK indicate that the decisionmaking process, as perceived by institutional investors, does not deviate significantly from normative models. However, investors tend to “collapse down” the decisionmaking process, taking shortcuts to achieve (in some cases, predefined) investment outcomes. These short‐cuts potentially leave the decisionmaking process open to the influence of bias, judgement and sentiment.

Originality/value

This study represents the first attempt to explore, empirically and in detail, the property investment decisionmaking process.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 25 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 April 2014

Wejendra Reddy, David Higgins and Ron Wakefield

In Australia, the A$2.2 trillion managed funds industry including the large pension funds (known locally as superannuation funds) are the dominant institutional property…

1170

Abstract

Purpose

In Australia, the A$2.2 trillion managed funds industry including the large pension funds (known locally as superannuation funds) are the dominant institutional property investors. While statistical information on the level of Australian managed fund investments in property assets is widely available, comprehensive practical evidence on property asset allocation decision-making process is underdeveloped. The purpose of this research is to identify Australian fund manager's property asset allocation strategies and decision-making frameworks at strategic level.

Design/methodology/approach

The research was undertaken in May-August 2011 using an in-depth semi-structured questionnaire administered by mail. The survey was targeted at 130 leading managed funds and asset consultants within Australia.

Findings

The evaluation of the 79 survey respondents indicated that Australian fund manager's property allocation decision-making process is an interactive, sequential and continuous process involving multiple decision-makers (internal and external) complete with feedback loops. It involves a combination of quantitative analysis (mainly mean-variance analysis) and qualitative overlay (mainly judgement, or “gut-feeling”, and experience). In addition, the research provided evidence that the property allocation decision-making process varies depending on the size and type of managed fund.

Practical implications

This research makes important contributions to both practical and academic fields. Information on strategic property allocation models and variables is not widely available, and there is little guiding theory related to the subject. Therefore, the conceptual frameworks developed from the research will help enhance academic theory and understanding in the area of property allocation decision making. Furthermore, the research provides small fund managers and industry practitioners with a platform from which to improve their own property allocation processes.

Originality/value

In contrast to previous property decision-making research in Australia which has mainly focused on strategies at the property fund investment level, this research investigates the institutional property allocation decision-making process from a strategic position involving all major groups in the Australian managed funds industry.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 32 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 September 1997

George E. Pinches and Diane M. Lander

Interviews in South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and India indicate net present value (NPV) is not widely employed in making capital investment decisions in these newly…

Abstract

Interviews in South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and India indicate net present value (NPV) is not widely employed in making capital investment decisions in these newly industrialized and developing countries. It is not from lack of knowledge about net present value: rather, it is due to (1) widespread violation of the assumptions underlying NPV, (2) the high risk/high return nature of the capital investments, and (3) the decisionmaking process employed in making capital investment decisions. These same three conditions exist for many capital investment decisions made by firms in developed countries. Only by abandoning the static NPV approach, building in real options, and understanding and building in the decisionmaking process will further advances be made in capital budgeting decisionmaking. One of the key paradigms in finance is net present value (NPV). In order to maximize value, managers should accept all positive NPV investment projects, and reject all negative NPV projects. The issue becomes more complex when uncertainty is introduced, or, as in recent years, when real options to defer, abandon, expand, etc. are incorporated into the decisionmaking process [e.g., Dixit and Pindyck (1994) and Trigeorgis (1995 and 1996)]. However, with these exceptions, the state of the art in capital investment decisionmaking revolves around the simple statement—take all positive NPV projects. In practice, evidence from surveys and discussions with corporate executives indicates the message taught for the last 30 years in business schools has been heard and, to a large extent, acted upon by larger U.S., Canadian, and British‐based firms. While larger firms in North America, and to a lesser extent Western Europe, generally employ the static, or traditional, NPV framework for making, or assisting in making, capital investment decisions, less is known about the decisionmaking process employed by firms in other parts of the world. The question addressed in this study is: “Do firms in other parts of the world, especially in newly industrialized or developing countries in the Asia Pacific region, employ NPV for making capital investment decisions?” The purposes of this study are threefold: (1) to report the results of a series of open‐ended interviews conducted in South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and India about the capital investment decisionmaking process employed; (2) to understand why NPV is not widely employed in making capital investment decisions in these newly industrialized and developing countries; and, most important, (3) to indicate that NPV and the capital budgeting decisionmaking process need rethinking and refocusing to make them more effective—in all countries, whether developed, newly industrialized, or developing. The paper proceeds in the following manner. Section I provides an introduction to the study. In Section II the results of the interviews are presented. In Section III patterns that emerged during the interview process are presented, along with a number of specific examples of the types of capital investment decisions being considered. In Section IV the assumptions underlying NPV are examined, and then risk/return and the decisionmaking process are considered. Section V contains the discussion and conclusions.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 23 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Article
Publication date: 29 July 2014

David Parker

– The purpose of this paper is to investigate property investment decision making by Australian REITs.

4058

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate property investment decision making by Australian REITs.

Design/methodology/approach

Through an extensive literature review, a normative model of the property investment decision-making process is proposed. Based on semi-structured interviews with senior Australian REIT decision makers, a descriptive model of the property investment decision-making process by Australian REITs is developed. The normative model and descriptive model are compared and a prescriptive model of the Australian REIT property investment decision-making process proposed.

Findings

With the four stage, 20-step process proposed in the normative model found to be generally supported by the descriptive model developed, this may potentially comprise an effective prescriptive model for the Australian REIT property investment decision-making process.

Research limitations/implications

Further research is required to investigate if the prescriptive model is generalisable across other property investment decision-making groups or over time and whether it may lead to “good” decisions.

Practical implications

The prescriptive model proposed may contribute consistency and transparency to the decision-making process, if adopted by Australian REITs, potentially leading to better decisions.

Social implications

Greater consistency and transparency in property investment decision making by Australian REITs may lead to the optimal allocation of capital and greater investor confidence in the sector.

Originality/value

The findings comprise the first prescriptive model of the Australian REIT property investment decision-making process, forming a basis for comparative investigation of that process adopted by other property investment decision-making groups.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 32 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 September 2019

Benjamin Gbolahan Ekemode and Abel Olaleye

In a bid to broaden the understanding of the real estate investment decision-making framework, the purpose of this paper is to examine the real estate asset allocation decision

Abstract

Purpose

In a bid to broaden the understanding of the real estate investment decision-making framework, the purpose of this paper is to examine the real estate asset allocation decision-making practices of real estate funds in Nigeria, a developing economy. This is with a view to providing information toward enhancing real estate investment decisions.

Design/methodology/approach

A mixed-methods approach comprising a combination of literature review, expert interviews and semi-structured questionnaire survey is adopted for this study. Through literature review and expert interviews, the asset allocation decision-making process of institutional real estate funds was identified. Based on the literature review and expert discussions, a semi-structured questionnaire was developed and self-administered on fund/portfolio managers of 59 institutional real estate funds in Nigeria to investigate their asset allocation decision-making practice. Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics for the closed-ended questions while the open-ended questions were content analyzed.

Findings

The findings revealed that the asset allocation decision-making process utilized by public and private real estate funds follows an opportunistic asset accumulation approach. The decision-making process also varies depending on the nature of the fund. Further findings showed that government policies, political uncertainties and regulatory mechanism motivate asset allocation decisions. Moreover, majority of the sampled real estate funds employed a combination of in-house personnel and external consultants (hybrid), while mean/standard deviation and cash flow analysis (DCF, NPV) were mostly utilized by the funds in making property investment decisions.

Practical implications

The findings implied that the real estate asset allocation decision-making process of institutional property investors in Nigeria deviates from the normative model of the asset allocation process prescribed in the literature and varies depending on the nature of the real estate funds. As such, familiarization of institutional investors with government policies, political climate and other regulatory mechanism (barriers to entry) guiding the ownership and operation of real estate assets in the country could improve their real estate investment decisions.

Originality/value

The study complements and extends existing literature on real estate asset allocation decision-making process of institutional investors from the viewpoint of the actors involved in a developing African economy.

Details

Property Management, vol. 38 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-7472

Keywords

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