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Might the impact of the financial stress on exchange markets be asymmetric and exposed to regime changes? Departing from the existing literature, highlighting that the domestic and foreign financial stress in terms of money market have substantial effects on exchange market, this paper aims to investigate the impacts of the bond yield spreads of three emerging countries (Mexico, Russia, and South Korea) on their exchange market pressure indices using monthly observations for the period 2010:01–2019:12. Additionally, the paper analyses the impact of bond yield spread of the US on the exchange market pressure indices of the three mentioned emerging countries. The authors hypothesized whether the negative and positive changes in the bond yield spreads have varying effects on exchange market pressure indices.

To address the research question, we measure the bond yield spread of the selected countries by using the interest rate spread between 10-year and 3-month treasury bills. At the same time, the exchange market pressure index is proxied by the index introduced by Desai et al. (2017). We base the empirical analysis on nonlinear vector autoregression (VAR) models and an asymmetric quantile-based approach.

The results of the impulse response functions indicate that increases/decreases in the bond yield spreads of Mexico, Russia and South Korea raise/lower their exchange market pressure, and the effects of shocks in the bond yield spreads of the US also lead to depreciation/appreciation pressures in the local currencies of the emerging countries. The quantile connectedness analysis, which allows for the role of regimes, reveals that the weights of the domestic and foreign bond yield spread in explaining variations of exchange market pressure indices are higher when exchange market pressure indices are not in a normal regime, indicating the role of extreme development conditions in the exchange market. The quantile regression model underlines that an increase in the domestic bond yield spread leads to a rise in its exchange market pressure index during all exchange market pressure periods in Mexico, and the relevant effects are valid during periods of high exchange market pressure in Russia. Our results also show that Russia differs from Mexico and South Korea in terms of the factors influencing the demand for domestic currency, and we have demonstrated the role of domestic macroeconomic and financial conditions in surpassing the effects of US financial stress. More specifically, the impacts of the domestic and foreign financial stress vary across regimes and are asymmetric.

This study enriches the literature on factors affecting the exchange market pressure of emerging countries. The results have significant economic implications for policymakers, indicating that the exchange market pressure index may trigger a financial crisis and economic recession.

In this paper we examine the validity of the J-curve hypothesis in four Southeast Asian economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand) over the 1980–2017 period.

We employ the linear autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) model that captures the dynamic relationships between the variables and additionally use the nonlinear ARDL model that considers the asymmetric effects of the real exchange rate changes.

The estimated models were diagnostically sound, and the variables were found to be cointegrated. However, with the exception of Malaysia, the short- and long-run relationships did not attest to the presence of the J-curve effect. The trade flows were affected asymmetrically in Malaysia and the Philippines, suggesting the appropriateness of nonlinear ARDL in these countries.

The previous research tended to examine the effects of the real exchange rate changes on the agricultural trade balance and specifically the J-curve effect (deterioration of the trade balance followed by its improvement) in the developed economies and rarely in the developing ones. In this paper, we address this omission.

This paper examines the reaction of the Egyptian stock market to two substantial devaluations of the Egyptian pound (EGP) in 2022 and tests the informational efficiency of the Egyptian market.

The paper uses the event study framework to analyze the significance and direction of abnormal returns of the leading index of the Egyptian stock market (EGX30) on and around the devaluation days. It employs both the constant mean model and the market model to estimate the normal returns of the EGX30. Additionally, the paper uses data on two equity indices, one global and one for emerging markets, as benchmarks for normal returns.

The paper finds that the Egyptian stock market experienced significant positive abnormal returns on the devaluation days of the EGP in March and October of 2022, indicating a positive market reaction to the devaluation. Furthermore, evidence suggests that the Egyptian market may not be informationally efficient as significant positive abnormal returns were observed two weeks before and two weeks after the devaluation day, suggesting news leaks and delayed reactions, respectively.

This study is the first to examine the impact of the recent two devaluations of the EGP in 2022 on the Egyptian stock market. It complements existing literature by analyzing the immediate market reaction to two consecutive devaluations in an African country. Furthermore, the paper evaluates the efficiency of the Egyptian market in processing information related to exchange rates.

This study aims to analyze the factors driving Syrian refugees into the informal labor market in Türkiye despite the existence of regulations and programs to facilitate their integration into the formal labor market.

This study presents results from a literature review of secondary sources and primary data collection through semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders and Syrian refugees.

The study shows that the implementation of policies and programs to boost formal employment among refugees has yielded limited results. Many refugees continue to operate within the informal economy. This informality is due to various socio-economic challenges, including anti-refugee sentiments, geographical restrictions and economic crises. The 2023 twin earthquakes have further exacerbated the vulnerable situation of refugees, intensifying the difficulty of achieving self-reliance.

The study’s drawbacks include a small sample size. This implies that the sample is not representative; therefore, results may lack generalizability.

The study’s findings could stimulate greater engagement in public policy, facilitate the management of public perceptions regarding refugees and provide support to the private sector, all to enhance the integration of Syrian refugees into the formal labor market.

This study addresses crucial areas previously unexplored, including the impact of economic and natural disaster crises on the labor market integration of refugees. To the best of the author’s knowledge, by investigating these factors for the first time, this study offers novel insights into their influence on refugees’ labor market integration.

This study aims to further develop the CLC stage/path’s identification model that distinguishes between path’s emergence (emergence stage), path’s development (growth stage), path’s sustainment (maturity stage), path’s decline (decline stage) and path’s transformation (renewal stage), and by applying it, define the current stage/path of the Demarcated Douro Region (DDR) cluster. The Port wine industry, which is the dominant industry of the DDR cluster, is at the maturity/decline stage – is the same for the cluster itself?

It is a case study with a longitudinal perspective based on the analysis of the dynamics of the parameters of cluster evolution using available secondary sources (cluster identity/brand; number of firms; number of employees; network; innovation; policies and regulations; and external markets – exports), especially addressing the past decade, that represent the stage of maturity/decline of the cluster’s dominant Port wine industry.

The conclusion is that since the 1990s the Demarcated Douro Region has gone through a “path transformation” where during the following 20 years new “anchors” for the cluster were gradually introduced, such as Doc Douro Wines, new forms of consumption of Port wine, tourism and olive oil. Since 2010 the cluster has entered a growth stage/(new) path’s development, where these “anchors” are in steady growth. The Douro brand is becoming more internationally recognized and established, the number of firms and employees is increasing, the network is restructuring with the creation of cluster-specific official institutions, innovation is especially reflected with increasing heterogeneity through diversification of the clusters into new activities and regulations and policies are supportive for expansion – all these parameters are indicating the rise of the new cycle for the cluster. Thus, the DDR cluster represents an attractive business environment and requires attention from regional policymakers to support the cluster’s development. Especially institutions have been highlighted as internal factors driving clusters growth, European integration as an external factor and firms’ strategies of diversification and internationalization as an appropriate de-locking mechanism for new path’s development.

This research contributes to the CLC theory by further developing and applying a CLC stage/path identification model. It provides a better understanding of the dynamics of the DDR cluster that diverge from its dominant industry life cycle, which is relevant for regional policies and firms’ strategies. This study has its limitations. It provides an exploratory application of the theoretical framework proposed, and consequently, no general conclusions are possible yet. More empirical studies with different clusters in different stages are necessary to test the framework.

These findings are useful to policymakers when designing their policies for cluster development but also for clusters’ entities and actors when making their strategic decisions as it allows based on the verification of the established parameter of CLC to identify its current stage/path of development.

The paper presents a theoretically grounded model for CLC identification and for the first time to the best of the authors’ knowledge applies it to a cluster case – the DDR cluster. This case applies the proposed model and illustrates its usefulness. The model provides the tools for a better understanding of cluster dynamics.

While the causes of migration across a range of diverse societies have been studied in the extant literature, a systematic study encapsulating the extant literature pertaining to the push and pull factors for the phenomenon of migration has not been conducted so far. The purpose of this study is to present a gist of the push and pull factors that are responsible for migration patterns across different contexts.

Inferences from the literature review and documentary analysis show that, on the one hand, the push factors for migration entail the enforced reasons like natural causes, wars, health and the like; the pull factors are, by and large, the affirmative ones related to better job opportunities, anticipation of improved well-being, etc.

It may also be deduced that both the categories of migration causes are analyzed at the individual, group, societal as well as regional levels.

Hitherto, the migration research has focused on understanding the antecedents and consequences of migration in temporal–spatial context, but a syncretic understanding of the push and pull factors behind migration vis-à-vis smart cities is required. The present study seeks to fill this gap. Besides contributing toward the mainstream literature on migration in general, the present study also adds to the literature pertaining to the specific factors responsible for migration patterns.

This paper aims to examine whether China's grain price support policy has distorted the grain market price.

The time-varying differences-in-differences (DID) model is used to study the impact of support policies on grain prices, and it is combined with the event study method to explore the dynamic effects of price support policy. Panel data model is used to study the effect of the price support policy on price formation for national grain market prices. In addition, we apply the smooth transformation (STR) model to verify whether there is a distortion in the transmission of grain prices among different markets in China and from the international market to China’s market.

China’s grain price support policy plays a significant role in rising grain market prices, weakens the decisive role of the market mechanism in the formation of grain prices, hinders the spatial transmission of market price signals and decreases the effect of price transmission from the world market to China’s market.

In order to ensure both the stability of grain production as well as the market stability, and also to ensure that intervention policies do not distort the food market, the minimum purchase price of grain and market regulation policies should be adjusted as follows: (1) price support policy should be shifted to an income support policy and (2) reasonably determine the scale of reserves and implement a grain minimum purchase price policy in limited areas.

Our findings are relevant for understanding the effect of China's grain price support policies on the implementation regions and the price transmission effect, which provide reference experience for developing countries to implement food price policies.

The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate how external debt vulnerability has affected the economy of emerging countries over time, with particular reference to Sub-Saharan African countries. It also deals with the policy issues associated with the economic effects.

The techniques of dynamic ordinary least squares and fully modified ordinary least squares are used in this investigation, covering the period 1990–2022. A panel of 43 Sub-Saharan African countries is used in the study.

The estimation results reveal that external debt vulnerability impacted negatively on economic growth, thus validating the concerns raised about the debt problem in Sub-Saharan Africa. Furthermore, the results revealed that domestic credit and openness of economy played a passive role and were therefore unable to cushion the adverse effect of debt vulnerability. Capital stock, however, stands out as the only variable that played a significant positive role in facilitating economic growth. The results are considered to be highly reliable for short-term forecast of economic growth and formulation of relevant policies.

Over the years, economic analysts and stakeholders have expressed concern about the inadequate ratio of foreign reserves to external debt in developing countries. The effect of this external debt vulnerability on the economy of these countries has yet to be given sufficient attention by researchers. In view of this perceived void, this current study is carried out to determine the economic and policy consequences of the problem.

This study assesses the relevance of foreign aid to the incidence of capital flight and unemployment in 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

The study is for the period 1996–2018, and the empirical evidence is based on interactive quantile regressions in order to assess the nexuses throughout the conditional distribution of the unemployment outcome variable.

From the findings, capital flight has a positive unconditional incidence on unemployment, while foreign aid dampens the underlying positive unconditional nexus. Moreover, in order for the positive incidence of capital flight to be completely dampened, foreign aid thresholds of 2.230 and 3.964 (% of GDP) are needed at the 10th and 25th quantiles, respectively, of the conditional distribution of unemployment. It follows that the relevance of foreign aid in crowding out the unfavourable incidence of capital flight on unemployment is significantly apparent only in the lowest quantiles or countries with below-median levels of unemployment. The policy implications are discussed.

The study complements the extant literature by assessing the importance of development assistance in how capital flight affects unemployment in sub-Saharan Africa.

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of political relations on trade in strategic emerging industries (SEIs) in the Belt and Road initiative (BRI) associated countries. This investigation encompasses not only from the perspective of bilateral political relations but also the political intervention of third parties.

The study employs the temporal exponential random graphmodel to analyze the dynamic structure and influencing factor of SEIs trade network among 150 BRI-associated countries from 2015 to 2020.

The results indicate that the trade of SEIs in the BRI-associated countries exhibits a pattern of concentrated exporters and decentralized importers. Amicable bilateral political relations foster trade cooperations in SEIs, while political pressure from the United States has the opposite effect. Furthermore, compared with the influence of third parties, the BRI has created a more robust trade environment characterized by political mutual trust.

BRI-associated countries should strengthen their political communication, and endeavor to transform political consensus and shared vision into concrete collaborative projects, while mitigating geopolitical uncertainties through a sound risk evaluation system. Moreover, they should establish a more transparent and consistent consultation mechanism and leverage the BRI trade network to foster balanced and mutually beneficial partnerships that minimize rivalry and dependence on a single market.

This study goes beyond observed trade cost and incorporates the political factor into the determinants of the BRI trade, thereby expanding the theoretical boundaries of existing BRI research. Also, this study employs bilateral trade data to construct SEIs trade networks (SEITNs) along the BRI route. It provides a comprehensive understanding of the dynamic determinates of the SEITNs will provide valuable practical guidance for enhancing and expanding trade and cooperation among BRI-associated countries.