Search results

One major source of inflation in India is her import of intermediate inputs. In the modern globalized world, where India is deeply integrated with the world economy, exchange rate affects inflation through various channels. This chapter attempts to gauge the extent of exchange rate pass through to inflation. Using the co-integration framework, this chapter finds considerable evidence of imported inflation in the long run, almost 40%–74% for CPI-IW. At the same time, we also discern evidence of short-run price stickiness of CPI-IW. However, for CPI-AL, the extent of pass-through is a meager 14%. This is due to the fact that CPI-IW gives more weightage to imported components while CPI-AL gives more weight to food and clothing, which are mainly domestically produced.

Deficits in fiscal and current account balances in a large number of countries reveal interesting implications of the causal relationship between internal and external imbalances. Empirical evidence about the occurrence of so-called twin deficits or twin surpluses provides crucial information about the validity of an intertemporal approach. However, most recent dynamic cyclical changes during the crisis period revealed many questions about the direct interconnection between macroeconomic performance and twin imbalances. In the paper we observe substantial features of twin imbalances in European transition economies. Event study (identification of large fiscal and current account changes and their parallel occurrence) and vector auto-regression methods will be employed to examine key aspects of twin imbalances. Our results suggest that current account deteriorations were predominately associated with negative public investment and savings balances (fiscal deficits), while current account improvements were predominately associated with positive private investment and savings balances, confirming empirical evidence about twin deficits in European transition economies.

This chapter, by virtue of a generalized specification, examines the equilibrium growth paths under two distinct scenarios, namely, a small open economy and a small semiopen economy in a two-sector, endogenous growth model of money. We show that these two scenarios end up with very different characteristics of equilibrium and the steady-state effects of inflation targeting (IT). In a small open economy, there is a nonbalanced-growth path equilibrium (hence, great ratios are nonstationary), while in a small semiopen economy there is a balanced-growth path equilibrium (great ratios are stationary). This provides a convincing reconciliation of the discrepancy in the empirical literature on great ratios. In addition, our steady-state analysis implicitly suggests that a lower inflation target gives rise to a positive GDP growth effect only for those IT countries which are more open to international trade. This enables us to explain why IT countries are relatively open to the international market and why some IT countries with a high degree of trade openness continuously lowered their inflation targets in the 1990s.

The aim of this chapter is to explore whether price dynamics is homogenous across Emerging Europe. We employ dynamic panel estimation techniques (including the Pooled Mean Group estimator of Pesaran, Smith, and Shin) over the 2003–2013 period and use Germany, and respectively, the European Union (EU) as the references. Results highlight some heterogeneity across the Emerging Europe members in terms of price convergence speed. Findings are robust across different specifications.

The authors investigate the impact of the US stock market on the economies of the BRICS and major industrialized economies (G7).

The authors construct the world economy and the vulnerability between economies using three economic integration variables: bilateral trade, bilateral direct investment and bilateral equity positions. Global vector autoregressive (GVAR) empirical studies usually adopt trade integration to estimate models. The authors complement these studies by using bilateral financial flows.

The authors summarize the results in four points: (1) financial integration variables increase the effect of the US stock market on the BRICS and G7, (2) the US shock produces similar responses in these groups regarding industrial production, stock markets and confidence but different responses regarding domestic currencies: in the BRICS, the authors detect appreciation of the currencies, while in the G7, the authors find depreciation, (3) G7 stock markets and policy rates are more sensitive to the US shock than the BRICS and (4) the estimates point out to heterogeneities such as the importance of industrial production to the transmission shock in Japan and China, the exchange rate to India, Japan and the UK, the interest rates to the Eurozone and the UK and confidence to Brazil, South Africa and Canada.

The results reinforce the importance of taking into account different levels of economic development.

The authors construct the world economy and the vulnerability between economies using three economic integration variables: bilateral trade, bilateral direct investment and bilateral equity positions. GVAR empirical studies usually adopt trade integration to estimate models. The authors complement these studies by using bilateral financial flows.

One of the highly debatable issues in the arena of international economics in recent years is whether a country should go for full capital account convertibility. In terms of the timing and process of capital account liberalization, India and China have been remarkably similar. Both started with a more or less closed capital account in the 1970s and the 1980s, in the context of a heavily state-influenced, planned economy. And in both countries, the first wave of liberalization came in the early 1990s and thus, the journey began. The objective of this chapter is to provide a critical analysis of both India and China's approach to the capital account liberalization program in the backdrop of the recent financial crises and to give an account of the theoretical issues that have arisen in international discussions on CAC and India's standpoint on this issue in particular. Second, how far is the capital account liberalization justified in the context of the recent episodes of financial crises that India and China have witnessed? Using a macroempiric model, this chapter tries to answer whether every member country in the IMF should hurriedly go for CAC or not. In addition, empirically through FMOLS, the authors pool in the “Rupee Convertibility” and “Renminbi Internationalization” along with exchange rate variation and its implications for India's and China's BoP situation (in terms of the export–import position and FDI flows) based on data from 1992 to 2017. ^{1 , 2}

Globalization has been an important factor in many parts of the world economically in the last century. To see this effect numerically, the globalization index is used and it contains many variables in itself. One of these variables consists of R&D concepts. At the same time, while intellectual property, which is an important element of the world economy, plays a major role in the rapidly globalizing world, the patent structure, which is the most concrete usage area of intellectual property, also shows its effect on globalization day by day.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the debate about whether R&D expenditures handled by the public are more efficient within the framework of comparative data analysis. The revised version of the patent and R&D analysis can be regarded as a composite index that measures economic, intellectual property and social dimensions as well as globalization for every country in the world. For this, Turkey and Germany in 2008–2018 the share of annual government expenditure, we use the total expenditure and GDP figures for R&D. Research and development expenditures made by the public sector are accepted to include the patent institutions and expenditures made by the public. At the same time, this index in Germany and made by the state exactly how much of their R&D spending gap between Turkey is to show that globalization is connected.

This paper appraises the effects of monetary policy on trade in value-added (TiVA) using a panel of 38 developing countries spanning the period 1990 to 2019. Specifically, the authors subsequently summon the theory of trade in intermediate products within the New Keynesian framework for open economies that comprises price rigidity to verify this relationship and thereon control for robustness by correcting for endogeneity and unbalanced panel effect.

The authors mobilize the within estimator corrected for cross sectional dependence as well as the two-stage-least squares fixed effect estimator which corrects for endogeneity. For robustness, the authors also use the Hausman–Taylor estimator to control for endogeneity and random effects in annualized data and the least squares dummy variable corrected estimator.

Results suggest that the monetary policy instruments such as inflationary gaps and anticipatory inflationary outcomes significantly affect TiVA in developing countries only in the short term with no long-term effect. In addition to contributing to the scanty empirical literature, the authors provide relevant insights on monetary policy tools that can be mobilized in fashioning a global value chain penetration and upgrading strategies.

The authors convoke the theory of trade in intermediate products casted into the New Keynesian framework comprising price rigidity to verify the relationship between TiVA and monetary policy (b) verify for robustness by correcting for endogeneity and unbalanced panel effect.

This study estimated total import demand elasticities concerning income, import prices and domestic prices. A high propensity to import constitutes a significant obstacle to economic growth in Mexico since the benefits of increased exports or any other aggregate demand expansion leak to the rest of the world.

This paper estimated a Vector Error Correction Model of the total import demand elasticities concerning income, import prices and domestic prices. Total imports are a dependent variable, while Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and import and domestic prices are the independent variables.

The principal finding is that an increase of 1 peso in the Mexican GDP leads to a rise of 0.50 pesos in Mexican imports; the elasticity of import demand for prices is low. Still, the elasticity of import demand for domestic prices is 2.14 times greater than that for import prices. These results have significant economic policy implications, such as promoting the expansion of the domestic market and the national content of exports.

It is tempting to estimate the import demand function for the entire 1993–2019 period since such data is available. But by doing so, the authors would overestimate the propensity to import, given that from 1993 to 2019, the proportion of imports as a percentage of GDP went from 11.37 in 1993 to 29.66 in 2019. Therefore, it makes more sense to estimate the import demand function from 2000 to 2019, a period with a stable proportion of imports to GDP.

A high level of imports in developing countries means that much of their aggregate demand is filtered abroad. Therefore, the low impact of its exports on GDP is related to the Mexican economy’s high imports. The authors calculate this relationship with new data and methods.

This paper investigates the asymmetric impact of the real effective exchange rate (REER) on Egypt's real domestic output from 1960 to 2020.

A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model is utilized to isolate real currency depreciations from appreciations and account for the potential asymmetry in the impact of the REER. The analyses account for the various channels via which the REER could affect domestic output.

Results show evidence of a long-run asymmetry in the output effect of REER changes in which only real currency depreciations have a contractionary impact on output, while the REER has no impact on output in the short run.

The Egyptian monetary authority cannot rely on domestic currency depreciation as a policy instrument to boost domestic output.

Unlike most of the previous studies, which assume linearity in the impact of the REER on output, we relax this assumption and hypothesize that the REER changes have an asymmetric effect on the Egyptian domestic output in Egypt. We use a long time span from 1960 to 2020 and control for the potential structural breaks in the REER-output nexus and the various channels through which the REER can affect domestic output.