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Earned value management (EVM)–based models for estimating project actual duration (AD) and cost at completion using various methods are continuously developed to improve the accuracy and actualization of predicted values. This study primarily aimed to examine natural gradient boosting (NGBoost-2020) with the classification and regression trees (CART) base model (base learner). To the best of the authors' knowledge, this concept has never been applied to EVM AD forecasting problem. Consequently, the authors compared this method to the single K-nearest neighbor (KNN) method, the ensemble method of extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost-2016) with the CART base model and the optimal equation of EVM, the earned schedule (ES) equation with the performance factor equal to 1 (ES1). The paper also sought to determine the extent to which the World Bank's two legal factors affect countries and how the two legal causes of delay (related to institutional flaws) influence AD prediction models.

In this paper, data from 30 construction projects of various building types in Iran, Pakistan, India, Turkey, Malaysia and Nigeria (due to the high number of delayed projects and the detrimental effects of these delays in these countries) were used to develop three models. The target variable of the models was a dimensionless output, the ratio of estimated duration to completion (ETC(t)) to planned duration (PD). Furthermore, 426 tracking periods were used to build the three models, with 353 samples and 23 projects in the training set, 73 patterns (17% of the total) and six projects (21% of the total) in the testing set. Furthermore, 17 dimensionless input variables were used, including ten variables based on the main variables and performance indices of EVM and several other variables detailed in the study. The three models were subsequently created using Python and several GitHub-hosted codes.

For the testing set of the optimal model (NGBoost), the better percentage mean (better%) of the prediction error (based on projects with a lower error percentage) of the NGBoost compared to two KNN and ES1 single models, as well as the total mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean lags (MeLa) (indicating model stability) were 100, 83.33, 5.62 and 3.17%, respectively. Notably, the total MAPE and MeLa for the NGBoost model testing set, which had ten EVM-based input variables, were 6.74 and 5.20%, respectively. The ensemble artificial intelligence (AI) models exhibited a much lower MAPE than ES1. Additionally, ES1 was less stable in prediction than NGBoost. The possibility of excessive and unusual MAPE and MeLa values occurred only in the two single models. However, on some data sets, ES1 outperformed AI models. NGBoost also outperformed other models, especially single models for most developing countries, and was more accurate than previously presented optimized models. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted on the NGBoost predicted outputs of 30 projects using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method. All variables demonstrated an effect on ETC(t)/PD. The results revealed that the most influential input variables in order of importance were actual time (AT) to PD, regulatory quality (RQ), earned duration (ED) to PD, schedule cost index (SCI), planned complete percentage, rule of law (RL), actual complete percentage (ACP) and ETC(t) of the ES optimal equation to PD. The probabilistic hybrid model was selected based on the outputs predicted by the NGBoost and XGBoost models and the MAPE values from three AI models. The 95% prediction interval of the NGBoost–XGBoost model revealed that 96.10 and 98.60% of the actual output values of the testing and training sets are within this interval, respectively.

Due to the use of projects performed in different countries, it was not possible to distribute the questionnaire to the managers and stakeholders of 30 projects in six developing countries. Due to the low number of EVM-based projects in various references, it was unfeasible to utilize other types of projects. Future prospects include evaluating the accuracy and stability of NGBoost for timely and non-fluctuating projects (mostly in developed countries), considering a greater number of legal/institutional variables as input, using legal/institutional/internal/inflation inputs for complex projects with extremely high uncertainty (such as bridge and road construction) and integrating these inputs and NGBoost with new technologies (such as blockchain, radio frequency identification (RFID) systems, building information modeling (BIM) and Internet of things (IoT)).

The legal/intuitive recommendations made to governments are strict control of prices, adequate supervision, removal of additional rules, removal of unfair regulations, clarification of the future trend of a law change, strict monitoring of property rights, simplification of the processes for obtaining permits and elimination of unnecessary changes particularly in developing countries and at the onset of irregular projects with limited information and numerous uncertainties. Furthermore, the managers and stakeholders of this group of projects were informed of the significance of seven construction variables (institutional/legal external risks, internal factors and inflation) at an early stage, using time series (dynamic) models to predict AD, accurate calculation of progress percentage variables, the effectiveness of building type in non-residential projects, regular updating inflation during implementation, effectiveness of employer type in the early stage of public projects in addition to the late stage of private projects, and allocating reserve duration (buffer) in order to respond to institutional/legal risks.

Ensemble methods were optimized in 70% of references. To the authors' knowledge, NGBoost from the set of ensemble methods was not used to estimate construction project duration and delays. NGBoost is an effective method for considering uncertainties in irregular projects and is often implemented in developing countries. Furthermore, AD estimation models do fail to incorporate RQ and RL from the World Bank's worldwide governance indicators (WGI) as risk-based inputs. In addition, the various WGI, EVM and inflation variables are not combined with substantial degrees of delay institutional risks as inputs. Consequently, due to the existence of critical and complex risks in different countries, it is vital to consider legal and institutional factors. This is especially recommended if an in-depth, accurate and reality-based method like SHAP is used for analysis.

The paper aims to discuss error detection and correction in Kashmiri carpet weaving (KCW), mediated by cryptographic code, Talim which is held to guarantee accurate information transference from designing to weaving, even after hundred years. Yet, carpets often show errors on completion.

Human factors analysis revealed error emergence, detection and correction in this practice whose task domains are distributed over large geographies (from in-premises to several kilometers) and timescales (from days to decades). Using prospective observation method, production process of two research carpets from their design, coding and weaving was observed while noting the errors made, identified and corrected by actors in each phase.

The errors were found to emerge, identified and corrected during different phases of designing, coding and weaving while giving rise to fresh errors in each phase, due to actors’ normal work routines.

In view of this, usual branding of “weaver-error” behind flawed carpet turns out to be misplaced value judgment passed in hindsight.

The purpose of this review is to comprehensively consider the material properties and processing of additive titanium alloy and provide a new perspective for the robotic grinding and polishing of additive titanium alloy blades to ensure the surface integrity and machining accuracy of the blades.

At present, robot grinding and polishing are mainstream processing methods in blade automatic processing. This review systematically summarizes the processing characteristics and processing methods of additive manufacturing (AM) titanium alloy blades. On the one hand, the unique manufacturing process and thermal effect of AM have created the unique processing characteristics of additive titanium alloy blades. On the other hand, the robot grinding and polishing process needs to incorporate the material removal model into the traditional processing flow according to the processing characteristics of the additive titanium alloy.

Robot belt grinding can solve the processing problem of additive titanium alloy blades. The complex surface of the blade generates a robot grinding trajectory through trajectory planning. The trajectory planning of the robot profoundly affects the machining accuracy and surface quality of the blade. Subsequent research is needed to solve the problems of high machining accuracy of blade profiles, complex surface material removal models and uneven distribution of blade machining allowance. In the process parameters of the robot, the grinding parameters, trajectory planning and error compensation affect the surface quality of the blade through the material removal method, grinding force and grinding temperature. The machining accuracy of the blade surface is affected by robot vibration and stiffness.

This review systematically summarizes the processing characteristics and processing methods of aviation titanium alloy blades manufactured by AM. Combined with the material properties of additive titanium alloy, it provides a new idea for robot grinding and polishing of aviation titanium alloy blades manufactured by AM.

As an advanced manufacturing method, additive manufacturing (AM) technology provides new possibilities for efficient production and design of parts. However, with the continuous expansion of the application of AM materials, subtractive processing has become one of the necessary steps to improve the accuracy and performance of parts. In this paper, the processing process of AM materials is discussed in depth, and the surface integrity problem caused by it is discussed.

Firstly, we listed and analyzed the characterization parameters of metal surface integrity and its influence on the performance of parts and then introduced the application of integrated processing of metal adding and subtracting materials and the influence of different processing forms on the surface integrity of parts. The surface of the trial-cut material is detected and analyzed, and the surface of the integrated processing of adding and subtracting materials is compared with that of the pure processing of reducing materials, so that the corresponding conclusions are obtained.

In this process, we also found some surface integrity problems, such as knife marks, residual stress and thermal effects. These problems may have a potential negative impact on the performance of the final parts. In processing, we can try to use other integrated processing technologies of adding and subtracting materials, try to combine various integrated processing technologies of adding and subtracting materials, or consider exploring more efficient AM technology to improve processing efficiency. We can also consider adopting production process optimization measures to reduce the processing cost of adding and subtracting materials.

With the gradual improvement of the requirements for the surface quality of parts in the production process and the in-depth implementation of sustainable manufacturing, the demand for integrated processing of metal addition and subtraction materials is likely to continue to grow in the future. By deeply understanding and studying the problems of material reduction and surface integrity of AM materials, we can better meet the challenges in the manufacturing process and improve the quality and performance of parts. This research is very important for promoting the development of manufacturing technology and achieving success in practical application.

According to regulations, aircraft must be in an airworthy condition before they can be operated. To ensure airworthiness, they must be maintained by an approved component maintenance organisation. This study is aimed to identify potential errors that may arise during the final inspection and certification process of aircraft components, categorise them, determine their consequences and quantify the associated risks. Any removed aircraft components must be sent to an approved aircraft component maintenance organisation for further maintenance and issuance of European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) Form 1. Thereafter, a final inspection and certification process must be conducted by certifying staff to receive an EASA Form 1. This process is crucial because any errors during this stage can result in the installation of unsafe components in an aircraft.

The Systematic Human Error Reduction and Prediction Approach (SHERPA) method was used to identify potential errors. This method involved a review of the procedures of three maintenance organisations, individual interviews with ten subject matter experts and a consensus group of 14 certifying staff from different maintenance organisations to achieve the desired results.

In this study, 39 potential errors were identified during the final inspection and certification process. Furthermore, analysis revealed that 48.7% of these issues were attributed to checking errors, making it the most common type of error observed.

This study pinpoints the potential errors in the final inspection and certification of aircraft components. It offers maintenance organisations a roadmap to assess procedures, implement preventive measures and reduce the likelihood of these errors.

Since 1966, the Severn crossing has been connecting England and Wales. In January 2018, its ownership returned to the UK Government, and this marked the start of a toll-free journey across the two countries and made commuting between the regions more affordable. In this paper, we examine the impact of the toll removal on the property market.

We employ property-level data from the Land Registry and a difference-in-differences (DiD) empirical model for the periods 2016–2018 and 2019–2021 to capture the pre- and post-toll removal dynamics. The DiD estimation allows us to examine the causal relationship between policy changes and property prices.

Our findings suggest that property prices in Newport and Monmouthshire (South East Wales) are positively affected by the policy, which results in a statistically significant increase of 5.8% more than those located in the South West England (Bristol and South Gloucestershire) region in the period 2019–2021. The impact can reach up to 13.1% for properties located in a 10 km radius of the bridge. The results indicate that the toll removal enables the ripple effect across the two markets by reducing commuting costs.

This is the first paper that examines the Severn Crossing case study. Its contribution is significant since we provide empirical evidence on how reduced transportation costs increase property prices in the lowest income region and have the opposite effect on the area with higher incomes and economic activity levels.

This study aims to achieve superior localization and mapping performance in point cloud degradation scenarios through the effective removal of dynamic obstacles. With the continuous development of various technologies for autonomous vehicles, the LIDAR-based Simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) system is becoming increasingly important. However, in SLAM systems, effectively addressing the challenges of point cloud degradation scenarios is essential for accurate localization and mapping, with dynamic obstacle removal being a key component.

This paper proposes a method that combines adaptive feature extraction and loop closure detection algorithms to address this challenge. In the SLAM system, the ground point cloud and non-ground point cloud are separated to reduce the impact of noise. And based on the cylindrical projection image of the point cloud, the intensity features are adaptively extracted, the degradation direction is determined by the degradation factor and the intensity features are matched with the map to correct the degraded pose. Moreover, through the difference in raster distribution of the point clouds before and after two frames in the loop process, the dynamic point clouds are identified and removed, and the map is updated.

Experimental results show that the method has good performance. The absolute displacement accuracy of the laser odometer is improved by 27.1%, the relative displacement accuracy is improved by 33.5% and the relative angle accuracy is improved by 23.8% after using the adaptive intensity feature extraction method. The position error is reduced by 30% after removing the dynamic target.

Compared with LiDAR odometry and mapping algorithm, the method has greater robustness and accuracy in mapping and localization.

This study aims to revisit the empirical debate about the asymmetric relationship between oil prices, energy consumption, CO₂ emissions and economic growth in a panel of 184 countries from 1981 to 2020.

A relatively new research method, the PVAR system GMM, is applied.

The outcome of the PVAR system GMM model at the group level in the study suggests that oil prices exert a positive but statistically insignificant effect on economic growth. Energy consumption is inversely related to economic growth but statistically significant, and the correlation between CO₂ emissions and economic growth is negative but statistically insignificant. The Granger causality test indicates that oil prices, CO₂ emissions, oil rents, energy consumption and savings jointly Granger-cause economic growth. A unidirectional causality runs from energy consumption, savings and economic growth to oil prices. At countries’ income grouping levels, oil prices, oil rent, CO₂ emissions, energy consumption and savings jointly Granger-cause economic growth for the high-income and upper-middle-income countries groups only, while those variables did not jointly Granger-cause economic growth for the low-income and lower-middle-income countries groups. The modulus emanating from the eigenvalue stability condition with the roots of the companion matrix indicates that the model is stable. The results support the asymmetric impacts of oil prices on economic growth and aid policy formulation, particularly the cross-country disparities regarding the nexus between oil prices and growth.

From a methodological perspective, to the best of the author’s knowledge, the study is the first attempt to use the PVAR system GMM and such a large sample group of 184 economies in the post-COVID-19 era to examine the impacts of oil prices on countries’ growth while controlling for other crucial variables, which is noteworthy. Two, using the World Bank categorisation of countries according to income groups, the study adds another layer of contribution to the literature by decomposing the 184 sample economies into four income groups: high-income, low-income, upper-middle-income and lower-middle-income groups to investigate the potential for asymmetric effects of oil prices on growth, the first of its kind in the post-COVID-19 period.

The purpose of this paper is to determine the effect of the industrial sector, renewable energy consumption and nonrenewable energy consumption in Indonesia on the ecological footprint from 1990 to 2020 in the short and long term.

This paper uses vector error correction model (VECM) analysis to examine the relationship in the short and long term. In addition, the impulse response function is used to enable future forecasts up to 2060 of the ecological footprint as a measure of environmental degradation caused by changes or shocks in industrial value-added, renewable energy consumption and nonrenewable energy consumption. Furthermore, forecast error decomposition of variance (FEVD) analysis is carried out to predict the percentage contribution of each variable’s variance to changes in a specific variable. Granger causality testing is used to enhance the analysis outcomes within the framework of VECM.

Using VECM analysis, the speed of adjustment for environmental damage is quite high in the short term, at 246%. This finding suggests that when there is a short-term imbalance in industrial value-added, renewable energy consumption and nonrenewable energy consumption, the ecological footprint experiences a very rapid adjustment, at 246%, to move towards long-term balance. Then, in the long term, the ecological footprint in Indonesia is most influenced by nonrenewable energy consumption. This is also confirmed by the Granger causality test and the results of FEVD, which show that the contribution of nonrenewable energy consumption will be 10.207% in 2060 and will be the main contributor to the ecological footprint in the coming years to achieve net-zero emissions in 2060. In the long run, renewable energy consumption has a negative effect on the ecological footprint, whereas industrial value-added and nonrenewable energy consumption have a positive effect.

For the first time, value added from the industrial sector is being used alongside renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption to measure Indonesia’s ecological footprint. The primary cause of Indonesia’s alarming environmental degradation is the industrial sector, which acts as the driving force behind this issue. Consequently, this contribution is expected to inform the policy implications required to achieve zero carbon emissions by 2060, aligned with the G20 countries’ Bali agreement of 2022.

Designing and implementing effective strategies for managing heritage resources throughout the world has become critically important as the impacts of climate change and human-caused destruction are increasingly felt. Of particular importance is the ability to identify and track fast- and slow-moving processes associated with weathering, erosion and the movement or removal of heritage objects by natural and human agents. In this paper, the authors demonstrate how 3D laser scanning can be used to detect and monitor changes to the Okotoks Erratic “Big Rock” Provincial Historic Resource in Alberta, Canada, over a period of 7 years.

Terrestrial laser scanning surveys of the Okotoks Erratic “Big Rock” Provincial Historic Resource were undertaken in 2013, 2016 and 2020. Registration was used to place the three epochs of point clouds into a unique datum for comparison using the cloud-to-cloud distance function in Cloud Compare.

The movement/repositioning of rocks around the base of the erratic, the emergence of “unofficial” paths and changes to interpretive trails and fencing were all identified at the site over the time period of the study.

Current conservation at the Okotoks Big Rock focus primarily on the rock art panels that are scattered over the erratic. The results of this study indicate they should be broadened so that the geological integrity of the site, which is intrinsically linked to its cultural value, can also be maintained.

This is the first study the authors are aware of that utilizes terrestrial laser scanning + change detection analysis to identify and track changes to a heritage site over a period as long as 7 years.