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Prior literature has found that as uncertainty in a firms information environment increases, optimism increases in equity analysts’ earnings forecasts. The studies suggest an economic incentive explanation, commonly called the management‐relations hypothesis. However, there is conflicting evidence that managers would prefer pessimistic forecasts and encourage analysts to “walk‐down” their forecasts to prevent negative earnings surprises. To test these contradictory findings, this study uses an experimental setting to remove economic incentives from the analyst’s decision process and isolate the cause of observed bias in analysts’ reports. The results of the experiment show that an increase in the perceived uncertainty of the forecasting task results in significantly lower relative optimism in analysts’ earnings forecasts. This finding is consistent with a negativity hypothesis and the managementrelations hypothesis extolled in the empirical research. The findings also show that relative forecast optimism bias is positively related to the level of analysts’ buy/sell recommendations consistent with more recent findings that suggest that analysts use motivated reasoning (the tendency to process information in a manner that supports one’s goal) in their judgments of forecasted earnings and recommendations. Together, these results suggest that analysts consider and use financial information differently depending on their decision goal.

This paper aims to investigate the association between analyst forecast dispersion and investors’ perceived uncertainty toward earnings.

A new measure for investors’ expectations of earnings announcement uncertainty is constructed, using changes in implied volatility of option contracts prior to earnings announcements. Unlike other proxies of uncertainty, this measure isolates the incremental uncertainty regarding the upcoming earnings announcement and is a forward-looking measure.

Using this new proxy, this paper finds a significant negative correlation between analyst forecast dispersion and investors’ uncertainty regarding the upcoming earnings announcements. Further tests show that this negative correlation is driven by analysts’ private information acquisition rather than analysts; uncertainty toward upcoming earnings announcements. Additional cross-sectional tests show that this negative relationship is more pronounced in the subsample with lower earnings quality.

This paper helps to further the understanding of the information content of analyst forecast dispersion, particularly the ways in which they gather and produce private information and their incentives for so doing.

This paper introduces a new market-based and forward-looking proxy of earnings announcement uncertainty that should be useful in future research. This paper also provides original empirical evidence that analysts gather and produce an additional private information to the market when facing noisy signals and that their information reduces investors’ uncertainty toward upcoming earnings announcements.

This paper aims to conduct a comparative analysis of the impact of market uncertainty on the degree of accuracy and bias of analysts' earnings forecasts versus four model-based earnings forecasts.

The study employs panel regression analysis on a sample of Egyptian listed companies from 2005 to 2022 to examine the impact of market uncertainty on the accuracy and bias of each type of earnings forecast.

The empirical analysis reveals that market uncertainty significantly affects analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy and bias, while model-based earnings forecasts are less affected. Furthermore, the Earnings Persistence and Residual Income model-based earnings were found to be superior in terms of exhibiting the least susceptibility to the impact of market uncertainty on their forecast accuracy and biasness levels, respectively.

The findings have important implications for stakeholders within the financial realm, including investors, financial analysts, corporate executives and portfolio managers. They emphasize the importance of considering market uncertainty when formulating earnings forecasts, while concurrently highlighting the potential benefits of using alternative forecasting methods.

To our knowledge, the influence of market uncertainty on analysts' earnings forecast accuracy and bias in the MENA region, particularly in the Egyptian market, remains unexplored in existing research. Additionally, this paper contributes to the existing literature by pinpointing the forecasting method, specifically distinguishing between analysts-based and model-based approaches, whose predictive quality is less adversely impacted by market uncertainty in an emerging market.

This paper aims to investigate a fundamental research question of whether the Islamic banking business model makes corporate earnings more uncertain. This question arises because prior research shows that Islamic banks do well in loan performance but incur more operational costs than conventional banks, indicating the systemic limitation of Islamic banks in business risk management.

The study used a sample of banks to conduct the panel regression analysis with 15 years of data for 532 banks (129 Islamic and 403 conventional) from 23 Muslim countries across the world. The authors estimate earnings uncertainty in two ways: the spread and standard deviation of the country-adjusted return over the sample period and applied the difference-in-difference approach interacting cost to income ratio with the Islamic bank dummy, checking if Islamic bank’s high operational costs contribute to more earning uncertainty.

Islamic banks’ returns on assets are significantly more uncertain than conventional banks due to higher operational costs. Consistent with earlier evidence, the study also finds that Islamic banks generally have fewer nonperforming loans than conventional banks. The authors conclude that Islamic banks trade-off between reducing credit risk and escalating business risk.

This study documents that the Islamic banking model helps build a safer asset portfolio but gives rise to the uncertainty of corporate earnings. Therefore, the choice between Islamic and conventional banking models involves a trade-off between credit and business risks. It is a new finding that we add to the literature body on Islamic finance.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that emerging economy enterprises face higher uncertainty in business operations compared to their counterparts in more developed economies. However, there is little empirical evidence on this issue. The objective of this study is to fill this void in the literature and examine whether there is an association between the level of development of home country economy of a multinational corporation and uncertainty about future earnings measured by dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts. After controlling for various firm‐ and country‐level factors, I find that the forecast dispersion tends to be larger for emerging economy enterprises (i.e., non‐U.S. firms cross‐listed in the U.S. whose home country economy is better characterized as emerging) than for developed economy enterprises (i.e., non‐U.S. firms cross‐listed in the U.S. whose home country economy is better characterized as developed), despite the fact that the emerging economy enterprises tend to be more heavily followed by analysts. Overall, the evidence supports the view that business uncertainty tends to be higher in emerging economies and highlights inherent difficulties associated with predicting future firm performance of the emerging economy enterprises.

The present study investigated the impact of earnings volatility and environmental uncertainty on accounting comparability in an emerging economy and the moderating role of COVID-19 pandemic for the companies listed on Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE).

The data about 181 companies during 2014–2021 were examined. In this study, accounting comparability was predicted for the firms' accounting systems and the coefficient estimates were calculated. The present study used the coefficient of variation of sales to capture sales volatility as the primary environmental uncertainty measure.

The results showed that both the earnings volatility and environmental uncertainty have a significant negative effect on accounting comparability, and that COVID-19 significantly increases the negative impact of earnings volatility and environmental uncertainty on accounting comparability. The hypothesis testing based on robust, GLS, GMM, GLM, OLS regressions and t+1 test confirmed these results.

The present study aimed to develop knowledge-providing benefits for companies about the accounting comparability and managing more efficient decisions. The present findings help investors to understand and evaluate the performance of firms more accurately especially in earnings volatility and environmental uncertainty conditions and in the wake of a pandemic crisis such as COVID-19.

This study aims to examine how firms choose an auditor in the presence of bilateral information asymmetry between insiders and outsiders regarding firms’ economic performance.

This study presents a one-period reporting bias game with a firm’s risk-neutral manager and investors in the capital market, in which a manager with private information chooses an auditor and reports earnings to investors who acquire their own information. The analysis focuses on the possibility that the manager engages an auditor to constrain earnings management as a commitment device to minimize reporting error cost.

The results show that the manager’s optimal auditor choice is determined based on investor sensitivity to the earnings report, and managerial incentives for earnings management, discounted by the uncertainty of reporting errors. The results for optimal auditor choice are counterintuitive: engaging a higher-quality auditor could seemingly be associated with aggressive earnings management.

This study advances the understanding of the theoretical basis of firms’ auditor choice in the context of market investors’ information acquisition when auditors exercise their discretion in reporting. This issue has received limited attention in the extant literature.

Although prior research documents that analysts sometimes herd their forecasts, very few studies investigate how investors’ judgments are influenced by their perceptions of the likelihood of analyst herding. I conduct an experimental study to investigate the conditions under which investors’ assessments of uncertainty about future earnings are influenced by their perceptions of the likelihood of analyst herding. As expected, and consistent with motivated reasoning, the results show that the temporal order of analyst forecasts influences investors’ estimates of the likelihood of analyst herding and investors’ uncertainty judgments when analyst forecasts are preference-inconsistent but not when analyst forecasts are preference-consistent. This study provides a potential explanation for the mixed findings of prior research in regard to investors’ reactions to the likelihood of analyst herding. In addition, this study extends research on investors’ credulity by providing evidence that motivated reasoning and skepticism may serve as a mechanism that contributes to that credulity.

This paper aims to investigate the combined effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and the firm life cycle on the degree of accrual-based earnings management of publicly traded companies in the USA and Brazilian stock markets.

The EPU index used was the one developed by Baker et al. (2016), the Kothari et al. (2005) model was used in the main analysis to obtain the discretionary accruals and the classification of firms into different life cycles was based on the Dickinson (2011) approach, which relies on the sign of operating, investment and financing cash flows. The methodology includes correlation matrix and panel regression with fixed effects.

The overall results for the USA sample suggest that economic policy uncertainty does have a heterogeneous influence on the firms’ accrual earnings management conditional on their life cycle where firms in the introduction, growth and decline stages decrease this practice when policy uncertainty increases. For the Brazilian case, in general, there is no combined effect between these variables. These contrasting findings can be associated with either the different underlying characteristics of both stock markets or the reduced sample size for the emerging market analyzed.

This research contributes to the earnings management literature examining how policy uncertainty is related to accruals manipulation under different life cycle stages and institutional environments. It is also one of the first studies to explore this conditioning effect.

The purpose of this paper is to explore the effect of firm’s deviant strategy on analysts’ earnings forecasts and further examine the effects of firm’s information transparency and environmental uncertainty on these relationships from information asymmetry perspective.

The sample includes listed firms on Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange during the period 2007-2013.

The results indicate that firms’ deviant strategies have effects on analysts’ earnings forecasts, in particular, firms with extreme strategies have less analysts following, larger forecast error and dispersion compared with firms following industry norms. Moreover, information transparency and environmental uncertainty have effects on the relationship between strategic deviance and analysts’ earnings forecasts.

The empirical results of this paper provide strong evidence that strategy information is an important source of information for analysts’ earnings forecasts, which shows that analysts should pay attention to not only financial information but also the strategic information, especially when the information is related to strategic choice. In addition, it is necessary for investors to focus on strategic information to have a better understanding on financial information of enterprises and make better investment decisions.

The findings of this study indicate that corporate strategic deviance has an effect on analysts’ earnings forecasting behavior. This study enriches research studies on corporate strategy and external stakeholders and complements related research on analysts’ earnings forecasts from strategic perspective and information asymmetry perspective.