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Article
Publication date: 27 June 2008

H. Young Baek, Dong‐Kyoon Kim and Joung W. Kim

The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of management earnings forecasts on the level of information asymmetry around subsequent earnings announcement.

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Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of management earnings forecasts on the level of information asymmetry around subsequent earnings announcement.

Design/methodology/approach

Employing the adverse selection cost method suggested by George et al., the paper compares for each sample firm the adverse selection cost around earnings announcement in forecasting years with that in non‐forecasting years.

Findings

Consistent with Diamond and Verrecchia is the finding that the earnings announcement in non‐forecasting years decreases information asymmetry during a three‐day announcement period and increases in a post‐announcement period up to seven days. No significant change in information asymmetry between pre‐ and post‐announcement periods when firms released a “good” news forecast is found. The firms that previously released a “bad” news forecast experience a significantly lower information asymmetry than those that did not forecast during announcement or post‐announcement days, and experience a decrease in information asymmetry in a five to seven‐day post‐announcement period.

Originality/value

This paper provides the first empirical reports on the different information asymmetry changes around earnings announcements followed by a “good” news management forecast from those followed by a “bad” news forecast.

Details

International Journal of Accounting & Information Management, vol. 16 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1834-7649

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 14 November 2011

Michael Lacina, B. Brian Lee and Randall Zhaohui Xu

We evaluate the performance of financial analysts versus naïve models in making long-term earnings forecasts. Long-term earnings forecasts are generally defined as third-…

Abstract

We evaluate the performance of financial analysts versus naïve models in making long-term earnings forecasts. Long-term earnings forecasts are generally defined as third-, fourth-, and fifth-year earnings forecasts. We find that for the fourth and fifth years, analysts' forecasts are no more accurate than naïve random walk (RW) forecasts or naïve RW with economic growth forecasts. Furthermore, naïve model forecasts contain a large amount of incremental information over analysts' long-term forecasts in explaining future actual earnings. Tests based on subsamples show that the performance of analysts' long-term forecasts declines relative to naïve model forecasts for firms with high past earnings growth and low analyst coverage. Furthermore, a model that combines a naïve benchmark (last year's earnings) with the analyst long-term earnings growth forecast does not perform better than analysts' forecasts or naïve model forecasts. Our findings suggest that analysts' long-term earnings forecasts should be used with caution by researchers and practitioners. Also, when analysts' earnings forecasts are unavailable, naïve model earnings forecasts may be sufficient for measuring long-term earnings expectations.

Details

Advances in Business and Management Forecasting
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-85724-959-3

Book part
Publication date: 19 September 2014

Guoli Chen and Craig Crossland

Financial analysts act as crucial conduits of information between firms and stakeholders. However, comparatively little is known about how these information intermediaries…

Abstract

Financial analysts act as crucial conduits of information between firms and stakeholders. However, comparatively little is known about how these information intermediaries evaluate the believability and importance of corporate disclosures. We argue that a firm’s level of managerial discretion, or latitude of executive action, acts as a cue for financial analysts, which helps them interpret and respond to voluntary management earnings forecasts. Our study provides strong, robust evidence that financial analysts find management forecasts significantly less believable in low-discretion than in high-discretion environments, and therefore tend to be much less responsive to these forecasts. We also show that managerial discretion is especially impactful on analysts’ responses in those circumstances where analysts are typically most uncertain about how to interpret management forecasts.

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 20 January 2021

Rajib Hasan and Abdullah Shahid

We highlight two mechanisms of limited attention for expert information intermediaries, i.e., analysts, and the effects of such limited attention on the market price…

Abstract

We highlight two mechanisms of limited attention for expert information intermediaries, i.e., analysts, and the effects of such limited attention on the market price discovery process. We approach analysts' limited attention from the perspective of day-to-day arrival of information and processing of tasks. We examine the attention-limiting role of competing tasks (number of earnings announcements and forecasts for portfolio firms) and distracting events (number of earnings announcements for non-portfolio firms) in analysts' forecast accuracy and the effects of such, on the subsequent price discovery process. Our results show that competing tasks worsen analysts' forecast accuracy, and competing task induced limited attention delays the market price adjustment process. On the other hand, distracting events can improve analysts' forecast accuracy and accelerate market price adjustments when such events relate to analysts' portfolio firms through industry memberships.

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 3 August 2022

Guqiang Luo, Kun Tracy Wang and Yue Wu

Using a sample of 9,898 firm-year observations from 1,821 unique Chinese listed firms over the period from 2004 to 2019, this study aims to investigate whether the market…

Abstract

Purpose

Using a sample of 9,898 firm-year observations from 1,821 unique Chinese listed firms over the period from 2004 to 2019, this study aims to investigate whether the market rewards meeting or beating analyst earnings expectations (MBE).

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use an event study methodology to capture market reactions to MBE.

Findings

The authors document a stock return premium for beating analyst forecasts by a wide margin. However, there is no stock return premium for firms that meet or just beat analyst forecasts, suggesting that the market is skeptical of earnings management by these firms. This market underreaction is more pronounced for firms with weak external monitoring. Further analysis shows that meeting or just beating analyst forecasts is indicative of superior future financial performance. The authors do not find firms using earnings management to meet or just beat analyst forecasts.

Research limitations/implications

The authors provide evidence of market underreaction to meeting or just beating analyst forecasts, with the market's over-skepticism of earnings management being a plausible mechanism for this phenomenon.

Practical implications

The findings of this study are informative to researchers, market participants and regulators concerned about the impact of analysts and earnings management and interested in detecting and constraining managers' earnings management.

Originality/value

The authors provide new insights into how the market reacts to MBE by showing that the market appears to focus on using meeting or just beating analyst forecasts as an indicator of earnings management, while it does not detect managed MBE. Meeting or just beating analyst forecasts is commonly used as a proxy for earnings management in the literature. However, the findings suggest that it is a noisy proxy for earnings management.

Details

China Accounting and Finance Review, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1029-807X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 8 July 2022

David Lau, Koji Ota and Norman Wong

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether audit quality is associated with the speed with which managers revise earnings forecasts to arrive at the actual…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether audit quality is associated with the speed with which managers revise earnings forecasts to arrive at the actual earnings through the lens of the auditor selection theory. This study examines this relationship in a unique institutional setting, Japan, where nearly all managers disclose earnings forecasts.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors pioneer an empirical proxy to capture the speed of management forecast revisions based on well-established principles from the finance and disclosure literatures. This proxy is tested alongside other disclosure proxies (namely, accuracy, frequency and timeliness) to assess the influence of audit quality on managerial forecasting behavior.

Findings

This empirical analysis shows that forecast revision speed is higher for firms that select higher-quality auditors. While firms that select higher-quality auditors revise forecasts in a more timely fashion, these firms revise less frequently. Moreover, the authors find that the influence of audit quality on forecast revisions is asymmetric. Specifically, the analysis of downward forecast revisions shows that higher-quality auditors are associated with firms that disclose bad news via forecasts revisions faster, more frequently and in a more timely fashion. However, the analysis of upward forecast revisions shows that higher-quality auditors have no effect on the speed with which firms disclose good news via forecast revisions, even though they are associated with less frequent but more timely forecast revisions. These findings have important implications for prior studies that consistently document an asymmetric response of the stock market to good news and bad news.

Originality/value

The authors provide evidence on the relationship between audit quality and management earnings forecasts using a novel and intuitive measure that captures forecast revision speed. This measure speaks to the growing interest in understanding the notion of speed and timing of voluntary disclosures. This study provides a more robust and comprehensive measure of the speed with which managers revise their earnings forecasts to arrive at the actual earnings. Furthermore, this study is among the first to document an asymmetric effect of audit quality on the type of news disclosed in forecast revisions.

Details

Meditari Accountancy Research, vol. 30 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2049-372X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 October 2021

Chui Zi Ong, Rasidah Mohd-Rashid, Waqas Mehmood and Ahmad Hakimi Tajuddin

This paper aimed to explore the effect of a regulatory change pertaining to earnings forecasts disclosure from a mandatory to a voluntary regime on the valuation of…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aimed to explore the effect of a regulatory change pertaining to earnings forecasts disclosure from a mandatory to a voluntary regime on the valuation of Malaysian initial public offerings (IPOs).

Design/methodology/approach

The study employed ordinary least square (OLS) regression and quantile regression to analyse the impact of disclosure of earnings forecasts regulation on the valuation of IPOs which comprised 458 IPOs reported for the period 2000–2017 on Bursa Malaysia.

Findings

This paper revealed that the regulatory change in forecasted earnings disclosure from a mandatory to a voluntary regime, effective from 1 February 2008, had a negative impact on the valuation of IPOs. The regime change did not improve the transparency of firms issuing IPOs. In fact, the absence of forecasted earnings information in most IPO prospectuses caused ex ante uncertainties to increase. Voluntary disclosure, however, had a significant positive relationship with the valuation of the IPOs issued during the global financial crisis period (2008–2010). Firms concealed their poor qualities by excluding forecasted earnings information from their prospectuses in order to have a fair valuation.

Practical implications

The findings may be used by policymakers as guidance in improving the existing regulation regarding the disclosure of forecasted earnings.

Originality/value

This paper provides new insight on the effect of a regulatory change pertaining to earnings forecasts disclosure from a mandatory to a voluntary regime on the valuation of Malaysian IPOs. It also provides evidence that the regulatory change of earnings forecast disclosure affects the IPOs' values listed during the global financial crisis period.

Details

Asian Review of Accounting, vol. 29 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1321-7348

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 August 2021

Max Schreder and Pawel Bilinski

This study aims to evaluate the earnings forecasting models of Hou et al. (J Account Econ, 53:504–526, 2012) and Li and Mohanram (Rev Account Stud, 19:1152–1185, 2014) in…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to evaluate the earnings forecasting models of Hou et al. (J Account Econ, 53:504–526, 2012) and Li and Mohanram (Rev Account Stud, 19:1152–1185, 2014) in terms of bias and accuracy and validity of the implied cost of capital (ICC) estimates for a sample of initial public offerings (IPOs).

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use a sample of 1,657 NYSE, Amex and Nasdaq IPOs from 1972 to 2013.

Findings

The models of Hou et al. and Li and Mohanram produce relatively inaccurate and biased earnings forecasts, leading to unreliable ICC estimates, particularly for small and loss-making IPOs that constitute the bulk of new listings. As a remedy, the authors propose a new earnings forecasting model, a combination of Hou et al.’s and Li and Mohanram’s earnings persistence models, and show that it produces more accurate and less biased earnings forecasts and more valid ICC estimates.

Originality/value

The study contributes novel results to the literature on the validity of cross-sectional earnings models in forecasting IPO firm earnings and estimating the ICC. The findings are directly relevant for practitioners, who can improve their earnings forecasting accuracy for IPO firms and related ICC estimates. The insights can be extended to other settings where investors have limited access to financial information, such as acquisitions of private targets.

Details

Accounting Research Journal, vol. 35 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1030-9616

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 September 2018

Jenny (Jiyeon) Lee, Youngdeok Lim and Hyung Il Oh

The purpose of this study is to examine the relevance of American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) to management voluntary forecasts of earnings. The authors further…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to examine the relevance of American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) to management voluntary forecasts of earnings. The authors further investigate whether the market reacts to such forecasts in respect of satisfaction.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors’ econometric models are constructed from previous work in accounting to specify the effect of ACSI on the issuance and optimism of management forecasts. Our model also specifies the impact of management optimism with respect to ACSI on stock returns. The data consisting of US firms in the 2001-2010 is collated from several databases and analyzed using multiple regression procedures.

Findings

Results indicate that ACSI is positively associated with the likelihood of issuing management forecasts and boosts management optimism. It is also found that investors react negatively to management optimism that is inherent in forecasts and results from satisfaction.

Research limitations/implications

The authors’ research findings not only complement prior work on the linkage between customer satisfaction and firm value by incorporating a managerial perspective but also respond to the recent call for further work on how relevant marketing metrics drive organizational decisions and firms’ financial performance. It should be noted that findings are limited to firms that release both a voluntary issuance of management forecasts and ACSI.

Practical implications

The study results shed light on the justification of marketing expenditures and provide a response to the call for marketing accountability. The study results also enable managers to make better decisions about whether and when to issue a forecast. The authors’ research further calls stakeholders’ attention to the presence of management forecast optimism with respect to satisfaction.

Originality/value

Despite the importance of managers as primary information generators and disseminators in the capital markets, there appears to be little discussion on the satisfaction’s relevance to market participants, particularly in relation to the role of managers. Therefore, this investigation is the first to empirically show the relevance of ACSI to management earnings forecasts that have been ignored in the marketing literature.

Details

European Journal of Marketing, vol. 52 no. 9/10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0309-0566

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 September 2018

Mohammed Abdullah Ammer and Abdulaziz Mohammed Alsahlawi

Islam stresses on the practice of transparency and sufficient disclosure particularly when it concerns the ethical identity of Islamic institutions. This is to make sure…

Abstract

Purpose

Islam stresses on the practice of transparency and sufficient disclosure particularly when it concerns the ethical identity of Islamic institutions. This is to make sure that the activities conducted in business adhere to Shari’ah principles. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of Shari’ah-compliant status on the accuracy of initial public offering (IPO) earnings forecasts and to investigate the effect of the existence of Muslim directors on IPO companies’ board of directors on the accuracy of earnings forecasts.

Design/methodology/approach

This study makes use of absolute forecast error as a proxy for earnings forecast accuracy. As obtained from the list of Shari’ah-compliant securities established by the Shari’ah Advisory Council of the Malaysian Securities Commission, the study sample comprised 190 Shari’ah-compliant and non-compliant IPOs. The collected data were analyzed through univariate analysis and ordinary least squares regression.

Findings

The initial findings show that during the study period, the earnings forecasts of Malaysian IPOs are accurate to some level, although such level is still unsatisfactory. The findings also showed that Shari’ah-compliant status and Muslim directorship do not positively affect the accuracy of IPO earnings forecasts.

Practical implications

The findings of the study provide some implications for regulators, financial analysts, investors and users of financial statements, particularly those desirous of investing in Islamic capital market.

Originality/value

The present study provides a new and far-reaching contribution into the debate about the earnings forecasts disclosure in the context of Islamic ethical perspective. In addition, this study is considered as the first study to extend IPO literature by examining the impact of Shari’ah-compliant status and Muslim directorship on the accuracy of management earnings forecasts disclosed in the IPO prospectus.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. 12 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

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