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Article
Publication date: 26 March 2024

Donia Aloui and Abderrazek Ben Maatoug

Over the last few years, the European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted unconventional monetary policies. These measures aim to boost economic growth and increase inflation through…

Abstract

Purpose

Over the last few years, the European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted unconventional monetary policies. These measures aim to boost economic growth and increase inflation through the bond market. The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of the ECB’s quantitative easing (QE) on the investor’s behavior in the stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

First, the authors theoretically identify the transmission channels of the QE shocks to the stock market. Then, the authors empirically assess the financial market’s responses to QE shocks in a data-rich environment using a factor augmented VAR (FAVAR).

Findings

The results show that the ECB’s unconventional monetary policy positively affects the stock market. A QE shock leads to an increase in stock prices and a drop in the realized volatility and the implied risk premium. The authors also suggest that the ECB’s QE is transmitted to the stock market through five main channels: the liquidity, the expectation, the portfolio reallocation, the interest rates and the risk premium channels.

Practical implications

The findings help to better understand the behavior of stock market assets in a data-rich economic context and guide investors and policymakers in the presence of unconventional monetary tools. For instance, decision-makers and investors should consider the short-term effect of the QE interventions and the changing behavior of the financial actors over time. In addition, high stock market returns can increase risk appetite. This can lead investors to underestimate the market risk. Decision-makers and market participants should take into consideration the impact of the large injection of money through the QE, which may raise the risk of a speculative bubble in the financial market.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that incorporates a theoretical and empirical analysis to explore QE transmission to the stock market in the European context. Unlike previous studies, the authors use the shadow rate proposed by Wu and Xia (2017) to quantify the effect of the ECB’s QE in a data-rich environment. The authors also include two key risk indicators – the stock market risk premium and the realized volatility – to capture investors’ behavior in the stock market following QE shocks.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 April 2024

Eleni Dalla, Stephanos Papadamou, Erotokritos Varelas and Athanasios Argyropoulos

Our purpose is the examination of the effects of fiscal policy on private lending for the Eurozone countries. The emphasis is on the identification of the time path of government…

Abstract

Purpose

Our purpose is the examination of the effects of fiscal policy on private lending for the Eurozone countries. The emphasis is on the identification of the time path of government spending and bank lending.

Design/methodology/approach

Fiscal policy is a main factor of macroeconomic stability for the euro area economy. This paper, investigates the impact of government spending on bank lending. For this reason, we present a dynamic theoretical model with a perfectly competitive banking sector, estimated using panel cointegration for the Eurozone countries from 2000Q1 to 2022Q2.

Findings

Our findings highlight that, in the long run, consistent management of government spending can have a beneficial multiplicative impact on bank lending for housing and business reasons. This finding is stronger in magnitude for business versus housing lending. The high level of homogeneity of our results across Eurozone countries has positive implications for a common fiscal policy in the future. Finally, authorities should know that policy adjustments are quicker in housing lending when compared to business lending.

Originality/value

In this paper, we contribute to the existing literature, concentrating on the investigation of any existence of long-run and short-run relationships between government spending and bank lending. Additionally, our analysis allows one to investigate the contribution of each Eurozone member state in the short-run and long-run model’s dynamics, providing significant outcomes for the implementation of economic policy and the need for fiscal discipline in the Eurozone.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 February 2024

R.L. Manogna, Nishil Kulkarni and D. Akshay Krishna

The study endeavors to explore whether the financialization of agricultural commodities, traditionally viewed as a catalyst for price volatility, has any repercussions on food…

Abstract

Purpose

The study endeavors to explore whether the financialization of agricultural commodities, traditionally viewed as a catalyst for price volatility, has any repercussions on food security in BRICS economies.

Design/methodology/approach

The empirical analysis employs the examination of three agricultural commodities, namely wheat, maize and soybean. Utilizing data from the Chicago Board of Trade on futures trading for these commodities, we focus on parameters such as annual trading volume, annual open interest contracts and the ratio of annual trading volume to annual open interest contracts. The study spans the period 2000–2021, encompassing pre- and post-financial crisis analyses and specifically explores the BRICS countries namely the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. To scrutinize the connections between financialization indicators and food security measures, the analysis employs econometric techniques such as panel data regression analysis and a moderating effects model.

Findings

The results indicate that the financialization of agricultural products contributes to the heightened food price volatility and has adverse effects on food security in emerging economies. Furthermore, the study reveals that the impact of the financialization of agricultural commodities on food security was more pronounced in emerging nations after the global financial crisis of 2008 compared to the pre-crisis period.

Research limitations/implications

This paper seeks to draw increased attention to the financialization of agricultural commodities by presenting empirical evidence of its potential impact on food security in BRICS economies. The findings serve as a valuable guide for policymakers, offering insights to help them safeguard the security and availability of the world’s food supply.

Originality/value

Very few studies have explored the effect of financialization of agricultural commodities on food security covering a sample of developing economies, with sample period from 2000 to 2021, especially at the individual agriculture commodity level. Understanding the evolving effects of financialization is further improved by comparing pre and post-financial crisis times.

Details

Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-0839

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 December 2023

Francesco Busato, Maria Ferrara and Monica Varlese

This paper analyzes real and welfare effects of a permanent change in inflation rate, focusing on macroprudential policy’ role and its interaction with monetary policy.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper analyzes real and welfare effects of a permanent change in inflation rate, focusing on macroprudential policy’ role and its interaction with monetary policy.

Design/methodology/approach

While investigating disinflation costs, the authors simulate a medium-scale dynamic general equilibrium model with borrowing constraints, credit frictions and macroprudential authority.

Findings

Providing discussions on different policy scenarios in a context where still it is expected high inflation, there are three key contributions. First, when macroprudential authority actively operates to improve financial stability, losses caused by disinflation are limited. Second, a Taylor rule directly responding to financial variables might entail a trade-off between price and financial stability objectives, by increasing disinflation costs. Third, disinflation is welfare improving for savers, while costly for borrowers and banks. Indeed, while savers benefit from policies reducing price stickiness distortion, borrowers are worried about credit frictions, coming from collateral constraint.

Practical implications

The paper suggests threefold policy implications: the macroprudential authority should actively intervene during a disinflation process to minimize costs and financial instability deriving from it; policymakers should implement a disinflationary policy stabilizing also output; the central bank and the macroprudential regulator should pursue financial and price stability goals, separately.

Originality/value

This paper is the first attempt to study effects of a permanent inflation target reduction in focusing on the macroprudential policy’ role.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 January 2024

Egi Arvian Firmansyah, Masairol Masri, Muhammad Anshari and Mohd Hairul Azrin Besar

Finance continuously evolves as the technological innovation progresses in the society. Numerous prior studies have discussed emerging financial services due to this innovation…

Abstract

Purpose

Finance continuously evolves as the technological innovation progresses in the society. Numerous prior studies have discussed emerging financial services due to this innovation. However, limited scholarly work has evaluated the trends and state of the art of financial innovation. Therefore, this study aims to review recent literature on financial innovation by using a bibliometric and content-analysis approach.

Design/methodology/approach

Documents for this study are sampled from financial innovation, a journal focusing on recent innovations in finance. A total of 354 peer-reviewed articles published in eight years (2015–2022) are first examined and mapped using the bibliometrix package in RStudio software. Furthermore, content analysis was performed to investigate the adopted research methods and types, and produce directions for future studies.

Findings

The trend of financial innovation research kept increasing, with China as the leader in publication quantity, affiliation productivity and paper citation acquisition. Topics related to “FinTech,” “Bitcoin” and “Covid-19” have been the most discussed topics by financial innovation researchers. FinTech and Bitcoin studies are expected to grow in emerging countries like China, India and Pakistan. The study also indicates that most financial innovation studies use quantitative research methods and are categorized as empirical papers.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the finance literature by comprehensively evaluating current research on financial innovation using one specific journal in the field. Also, this study examines financial innovation literature using different approaches from previous bibliometric financial innovation studies.

Details

Nankai Business Review International, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-8749

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 13 October 2023

Law Chee-Hong

This study investigates the impact of financial development, measured by the ratio of broad money to gross domestic products, on de jure central bank (CB) independence (CBI) in 17…

Abstract

Purpose

This study investigates the impact of financial development, measured by the ratio of broad money to gross domestic products, on de jure central bank (CB) independence (CBI) in 17 countries in the Asia–Pacific region from 1995 to 2014.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses the feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) approach, which is suitable since the CBI equation suffers from contemporaneous correlation, serial correlation and heteroscedasticity.

Findings

The FGLS results suggest a positive association between CBI and financial market development (FMD). This relationship is confirmed when estimating different indicators of de jure CBI and adopting the panel-corrected standard error estimate. However, the statistical significance of FMD is not supported when the ratio of domestic credit to the private sector to GDP is measured.

Research limitations/implications

It is significant to have a developed financial system to foster a better CBI. Moreover, it is important to measure the influence of financial market players on the operations of a CB.

Originality/value

The financial market in the Asia–Pacific has improved over the years. Hence, the results show the determinants of CBI in the Asia–Pacific, especially the role of FMD.

Details

Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2515-964X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 April 2022

Niaz Hussain Ghumro, Ishfaque Ahmed Soomro and Ghulam Abbas

This study investigates the asymmetric effects of exchange rate and investors' sentiments simultaneously on stock market performance in the United States context. In addition, we…

Abstract

Purpose

This study investigates the asymmetric effects of exchange rate and investors' sentiments simultaneously on stock market performance in the United States context. In addition, we have also considered the potential effect of the global financial crisis of 2008 on this nexus.

Design/methodology/approach

We have employed the NARDL (nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag) model on monthly data ranging from January-1999 to December-2018 to investigate the asymmetric (short- and long-run) effects of exchange rate and investors' sentiments on stock market performance. We have also broken down the data into two segments, pre and post-crisis periods to capture the effect of the global financial crisis of 2008.

Findings

The findings of the study reveal that exchange rate and investors' sentiments simultaneously affect stock market performance and omitting any of these variables can produce misleading results. Results also show that the effect of sentiments is stronger than the exchange rate. There is significant evidence of asymmetric short-run and long-run effects of both explanatory variables. Moreover, we have found different outcomes for pre and post-crisis periods. Specifically, the impact of macroeconomic variables on the stock market has been substantiated in the post-crisis period.

Originality/value

Several studies are available which separately evidence the effects of investors' sentiments and exchange rate on performance of the stock market but they can suffer from the problem of omitted variable bias. This study is conducted to test the said effect simultaneously in a single model. Moreover, this study is considering short-run and long-run asymmetry in analyzing the effects of explanatory variables along with the inclusion of the global financial crisis of 2008.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 January 2022

Shailesh Rastogi and Jagjeevan Kanoujiya

The main aim of the study is to explore the volatility spillover effect of cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin) on inflation volatility in India.

Abstract

Purpose

The main aim of the study is to explore the volatility spillover effect of cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin) on inflation volatility in India.

Design/methodology/approach

A popular tool, the Bivariate GARCH model (BEKK-GARCH), to study the volatility spillover effect, is applied in the study. Monthly data of cryptocurrencies and inflation (WPI and CPI indices) are gathered from 2015 to 2021.

Findings

Significant short-term responsiveness of volatility of cryptocurrencies on the inflation volatility is found. In addition to this, the significant volatility spillover effect from the cryptocurrencies to the inflation volatility is found.

Practical implications

The findings of the current paper can be of use for inflation management, target inflation policies and policies to contain the volatility of cryptocurrencies. The significance of the current paper is relevant as governments worldwide are officially recognizing cryptocurrencies and starting the process of launching their official virtual currency.

Originality/value

No other study is observed on the topic. Hence, the contribution and novelty of the findings of the current paper are very high and add value to the nonexistent literature on the topic. Lack of the number of inflation observations (data of CPI and WPI are available only in monthly frequency) crimps the model estimation. As the cryptocurrencies become old, more data points will be available by design, and such problems can be resolved, and better model estimation may be possible.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 April 2024

Oguzhan Ozcelebi, Jose Perez-Montiel and Carles Manera

Might the impact of the financial stress on exchange markets be asymmetric and exposed to regime changes? Departing from the existing literature, highlighting that the domestic…

11

Abstract

Purpose

Might the impact of the financial stress on exchange markets be asymmetric and exposed to regime changes? Departing from the existing literature, highlighting that the domestic and foreign financial stress in terms of money market have substantial effects on exchange market, this paper aims to investigate the impacts of the bond yield spreads of three emerging countries (Mexico, Russia, and South Korea) on their exchange market pressure indices using monthly observations for the period 2010:01–2019:12. Additionally, the paper analyses the impact of bond yield spread of the US on the exchange market pressure indices of the three mentioned emerging countries. The authors hypothesized whether the negative and positive changes in the bond yield spreads have varying effects on exchange market pressure indices.

Design/methodology/approach

To address the research question, we measure the bond yield spread of the selected countries by using the interest rate spread between 10-year and 3-month treasury bills. At the same time, the exchange market pressure index is proxied by the index introduced by Desai et al. (2017). We base the empirical analysis on nonlinear vector autoregression (VAR) models and an asymmetric quantile-based approach.

Findings

The results of the impulse response functions indicate that increases/decreases in the bond yield spreads of Mexico, Russia and South Korea raise/lower their exchange market pressure, and the effects of shocks in the bond yield spreads of the US also lead to depreciation/appreciation pressures in the local currencies of the emerging countries. The quantile connectedness analysis, which allows for the role of regimes, reveals that the weights of the domestic and foreign bond yield spread in explaining variations of exchange market pressure indices are higher when exchange market pressure indices are not in a normal regime, indicating the role of extreme development conditions in the exchange market. The quantile regression model underlines that an increase in the domestic bond yield spread leads to a rise in its exchange market pressure index during all exchange market pressure periods in Mexico, and the relevant effects are valid during periods of high exchange market pressure in Russia. Our results also show that Russia differs from Mexico and South Korea in terms of the factors influencing the demand for domestic currency, and we have demonstrated the role of domestic macroeconomic and financial conditions in surpassing the effects of US financial stress. More specifically, the impacts of the domestic and foreign financial stress vary across regimes and are asymmetric.

Originality/value

This study enriches the literature on factors affecting the exchange market pressure of emerging countries. The results have significant economic implications for policymakers, indicating that the exchange market pressure index may trigger a financial crisis and economic recession.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 May 2024

Rexford Abaidoo and Elvis Kwame Agyapong

The study evaluates the role of institutional framework and macroeconomic instability on financial market development among emerging economies.

Abstract

Purpose

The study evaluates the role of institutional framework and macroeconomic instability on financial market development among emerging economies.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses panel data compiled from 32 countries from the sub-region of Sub-Sahara Africa (SSA), covering the period starting from 1996 to 2019. Empirical analyses were carried out using the two-step system generalized method of moments (TS-GMM) statistical framework.

Findings

Reviewed results suggest that institutional quality, effective governance and corruption control have a significant positive impact on financial market development among economies in the sub-region. Further empirical estimates show that macroeconomic risk and macroeconomic uncertainty have significant adverse effects on financial market development. Additionally, reported empirical estimates suggest that an improved institutional framework has the potential to lessen the adverse effect of macroeconomic instability on financial market development among economies in the sub-region.

Originality/value

The uniqueness of this empirical inquiry compared to related studies in the present literature stems from the fact that studies employing similar empirical approaches on the subject matter for economies in the sub-region are rare. Additionally, the analysis pursued in this study employs critical variables whose impact on financial market performance in the sub-region has not been examined per our review. These variables include indexes such as macroeconomic risk and institutional quality, which are unique to this study based on their construction; these indexes are generated using a principal component analysis procedure with different underlying variables compared to what may be found in the literature.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

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