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From the standpoint of a policy maker who has access to a number of expert forecasts, the uncertainty of a combined or ensemble forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. This uncertainty formula should incorporate forecaster discord, as justified by (i) disagreement as a component of combined forecast uncertainty, (ii) the model averaging literature, and (iii) central banks’ communication of uncertainty via fan charts. Using new statistics to test for the homogeneity of idiosyncratic errors under the joint limits with both T and n approaching infinity simultaneously, the authors find that some previously used measures can significantly underestimate the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty.

Since its introduction by Chari, Kehoe, and McGrattan (2007), Business Cycle Accounting (BCA) exercises have become widespread. Much attention has been devoted to the results of such exercises and to methodological departures from the baseline methodology. Little attention has been paid to identification issues within these classes of models. In this chapter, the authors investigate whether such issues are of concern in the original methodology and in an extension proposed by Šustek (2011) called Monetary Business Cycle Accounting. The authors resort to two types of identification tests in population. One concerns strict identification as theorized by Komunjer and Ng (2011) while the other deals both with strict and weak identification as in Iskrev (2010). Most importantly, the authors explore the extent to which these weak identification problems affect the main economic takeaways and find that the identification deficiencies are not relevant for the standard BCA model. Finally, the authors compute some statistics of interest to practitioners of the BCA methodology.

The purpose of the paper is 1) to address the importance of contingency at the right level when defining project control baseline, including cost reserves / “room to manoeuvre” and 2) present proactive uncertainty management as a regime to ensure cost effective management of project reserves and contribute to project success.

The paper is a combination of literature study and quantitative research on how contingency develops during the lifetime of a case project. The investigation into the case project includes document study into quantitative material from the case project. The combination of empirical material and theory makes the discussion robust.

Unrealistic low cost uncertainty will lead to unrealistic low contingency. The case study from a Norwegian mega project shows a contingency of 15 per cent in addition to expected costs. The case study shows that by continuous opportunity management and risk reduction, the needs for management reserves are systematically reduced and the contingency is controlled.

This research is limited to one case study. A higher number of cases are necessary to generalise the findings. However, the authors would claim that the systematic mapping of need for management reserve towards the project contingency, and a continuous uncertainty management system will help to obtain cost effective management. The findings from the case study could be applied on similar cases.

The case study shows a way of setting contingencies and managing contingencies through systematic uncertainty management.

Improved management of project provisions will increase the value of future projects.

This paper aims to provide decision support for precast concrete contractors about both precast concrete supply chain strategies and construction configurations.

This paper proposes a simulation-based optimisation for supply chain and construction (SOSC) during the planning phase of PC building projects. The discrete event simulation is used to capture the characteristics of supply chain and construction processes, and calculate construction objectives under different plans. Particle swarm optimisation is combined with simulation to find optimal supply chain strategies and construction configurations.

The efficiency of SOSC is compared with the parametric simulation approach. Over 70 per cent of time and effort used to simulate and compare alternative plans is saved owing to SOSC.

Building simulation model costs a lot of time and effort. The data requirement of the proposed method is high.

The proposed SOSC approach can provide decision support for PC contractors by optimising supply chain strategies and construction configurations.

This paper has two contributions: one is in providing a decision support tool SOSC to optimise both supply chain strategies and construction configurations, while the other is in building a prototype of SOSC and testing it in a case study.

This paper investigates effective human-robot collaboration (HRC) and presents implications for Human Resource Management (HRM). A brief review of current literature on HRM in the smart industry context showed that there is limited research on HRC in hybrid teams and even less on effective management of these teams. This book chapter addresses this issue by investigating factors affecting intention to collaborate with a robot by conducting a vignette study. We hypothesized that six technology acceptance factors, performance expectancy, trust, effort expectancy, social support, organizational support and computer anxiety would significantly affect a users' intention to collaborate with a robot. Furthermore, we hypothesized a moderating effect of a particular HR system, either productivity-based or collaborative. Using a sample of 96 participants, this study tested the effect of the aforementioned factors on a users' intention to collaborate with the robot. Findings show that performance expectancy, organizational support and computer anxiety significantly affect the intention to collaborate with a robot. A significant moderating effect of a particular HR system was not found. Our findings expand the current technology acceptance models in the context of HRC. HRM can support effective HRC by a combination of comprehensive training and education, empowerment and incentives supported by an appropriate HR system.

This chapter presents the many premises of this book. It first discusses the book’s central questions and lays out the design of the large multi-national and multi-method study, carried out across Northern Europe. It also places the book at the interdisciplinary space between contemporary innovation economics and cultural and social theory. It then discusses the complex set of social processes that have conditioned the phenomena that the book studies – how and why are the contemporary audiovisual media industries co-innovating and converging with other sectors including education, tourism and health care? Within this framework, it discusses the effects of the broader individualisation and mediatisation processes, of media convergence, of the emergence of cross-media or transmedia strategies, of the evolution of the service and experience economies and of the emergence of creative industries policy frameworks.

This chapter establishes the conceptual and analytic framework for the book. It relates not only to much of the existing work in evolutionary and institutional economics, but also to work in cultural science and cultural semiotics domains as well as in media convergence and transmedia studies. The central concept it first deploys is ‘innovation systems’ as applied in national, regional, international and sectoral contexts. It then builds on the general theory of economic evolution by Kurt Dopfer and Jason Potts and reviews the tools this theory provides to carry out a meso-level analysis of industries co-innovating and converging. It then proposes a new concept – ‘cross-innovation’ – to refer to the emergence of new structures and ‘rules’ at the boundaries of existing industries.

As hybrid organizations become increasingly common, the authors observe that some hybrid forms are becoming institutionalized and legitimated. The authors explore the implications of the institutionalization of hybridity, addressing both the internal tensions that plague many hybrids and the external tensions stemming from evaluator assessments and stakeholder uncertainty. The authors propose that institutionalization can dampen internal tensions associated with hybridity and also facilitate legitimation and acceptance by external audiences. The authors present identity as a useful theoretical lens through which to examine these questions, as identities are born from, but also have the potential to modify, existing institutional arrangements. The authors present directions for future research at the juncture of identity, hybridity, and institutionalization, suggesting potential avenues of inquiry in this productive stream of research.

Recent changes in university systems, debates on academic freedom, and changing roles of knowledge in society all point to questions regarding how higher education and research should be governed and the role of scientists and faculty in this. Rationalizations of systems of higher education and research have been accompanied by the questioning and erosion of faculty authority and challenges to academic collegiality. In light of these developments, we see a need for a more conceptually precise discussion about what academic collegiality is, how it is practiced, how collegial forms of governance may be supported or challenged by other forms of governance, and finally, why collegial governance of higher education and research is important.

We see collegiality as an institution of self-governance that includes formal rules and structures for decision-making, normative and cognitive underpinnings of identities and purposes, and specific practices. Studies of collegiality then, need to capture structures and rules as well as identities, norms, purposes and practices. Distinguishing between vertical and horizontal collegiality, we show how they balance and support each other.

Universities are subject to mixed modes of governance related to the many tasks and missions that higher education and research is expected to fulfill. Mixed modes of governance also stem from reforms based on widely held ideals of governance and organization. We examine university reforms and challenges to collegiality through the lenses of three ideal types of governance – collegiality, bureaucracy and enterprise – and combinations thereof.

Purpose – The purpose of this research is to design and build a wild animal pest repellent device with combination of passive infrared (PIR) sensor and ultrasonic signal based on microcontroller as system controller. The PIR sensor is used to detect the presence of wild animal objects and ultrasonic signals to interfere with the hearing.

Design/Methodology/Approach – The design of the system is built based on microcontroller as the system controller. The system as a whole includes hardware and software. The design of hardware consists of the system design on the transmitter side and the system design on the receiver side, while the software in the of system are algorithms using C language programming.

Findings – The resulting repellent device can detect animals approaching up to a distance of 5 m and may interfere with its hearing with a 40 kHz ultrasonic frequency up to a distance of 20 m. The system also uses remote monitoring devices using 433 MHz radio frequency up to a distance of 60 m.

Research Limitations/Implications – Each animal has different hearing frequencies, as well as some wild animals, but the hearing frequencies of wild animals are generally at ultrasonic frequencies. The frequency of animal hearing may vary from audio frequency to ultrasonic frequency, so ultrasonic wave emission testing with varying frequencies is required.

Practical Implications – This research combines systems on transmitters and receivers, with real-time monitoring of wild animal positions, and it can be possible to monitor the position of more detailed animals by installing more types of sensors as well as increasing the number of sensors.

Originality/Value – This paper may provide additional insight into the hearing frequencies of animals and may also serve as comparable papers for similar studies.