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This paper aims to analyze the convergence of the testing and positivity rates for the COVID-19 pandemic focusing on Germany and Italy.

The authors employ the two-regime threshold autoregressive (TAR) panel unit root test by using the weekly data in the period of 2020:03-2021:04.

Following finding out that the testing and positivity rates are nonlinear, the authors determine that the transition country between the two regimes is Italy for the testing rates and Germany for the positivity rates. Their findings support the partial convergence for the testing rates for Germany and Italy. On the other hand, the authors could not find any convergence for the positivity rates of these two countries.

This paper contributes to academic literature in several ways. Firstly, to the best of their knowledge, this paper is the first study that analyzes the convergence of testing and positivity data. This paper further focuses on two Euro-Area countries which have suffered significantly from the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, the authors employ the two-regime threshold autoregressive (TAR) panel unit root proposed by Beyaert and Camacho (2008) in their empirical analysis. This recent panel data methodology aims to test real convergence in a nonlinear framework by incorporating the threshold model, panel data unit root test and the calculation of critical values by bootstrap simulation.

Using Dean's (2010) analytics of government, this research explores how regimes of governing practices are linked to the underlying policy rationalities in dealing with the UK government's COVID-19 testing policies as a strategy for governing at a distance, including how targets were set and operationalized.

This paper draws on the UK government's policy documents, other official publications (plans) and parliamentary discourse, together with publicly available media information related to its COVID-19 policies.

This research reveals that, with respect to the governance of COVID-19 in the UK, testing has the dual role of inscription for the government's performance and classification for the pandemic risks. The analysis illustrates that the central role of testing is as a technology for classification for identifying and monitoring the virus-related risks. Moreover, our discourse analysis suggests that initially COVID-19 testing was used by the UK government more for performance communication, with the classificatory role of testing and its performativity as a strategic device evolving and only being acknowledged by government gradually as the underlying testing infrastructure was developed.

This paper is based upon publicly available reports and other information of a single country's attempts to control COVID-19 over a relatively short period of time.

This paper provides a critical understanding of the role of (accounting) numbers in developing an effective government policy for governing COVID-19.

This study aims to evaluate the dynamics between healthcare resource capacity expansion and disease spread. Further, the study estimates the resources required to respond to a pandemic appropriately.

This study adopts a system dynamics simulation and scenario analysis to experiment with the modification of the susceptible exposed infected and recovered (SEIR) model. The experiments evaluate diagnostic capacity expansion to identify suitable expansion plans and timelines. Afterwards, two popularly used forecasting tools, artificial neural network (ANN) and auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), are used to estimate the requirement of beds for a period when infection data became available.

The results from the study reflect that aggressive testing with isolation and integration of quarantine can be effective strategies to prevent disease outbreaks. The findings demonstrate that decision-makers must rapidly expand the diagnostic capacity during the first two weeks of the outbreak to support aggressive testing and isolation. Further, results confirm a healthcare resource deficit of at least two months for Delhi in the absence of these strategies. Also, the study findings highlight the importance of capacity expansion timelines by simulating a range of contact rates and disease infectivity in the early phase of the outbreak when various parameters are unknown. Further, it has been reflected that forecasting tools can effectively estimate healthcare resource requirements when pandemic data is available.

The models developed in the present study can be utilised by policymakers to suitably design the response plan. The decisions regarding how much diagnostics capacity is needed and when to expand capacity to minimise infection spread have been demonstrated for Delhi city. Also, the study proposed a decision support system (DSS) to assist the decision-maker in short- and long-term planning during the disease outbreak.

The study estimated the resources required for adopting an aggressive testing strategy. Several experiments were performed to successfully validate the robustness of the simulation model. The modification of SEIR model with diagnostic capacity increment, quarantine and testing block has been attempted to provide a distinct perspective on the testing strategy. The prevention of outbreaks has been addressed systematically.

This paper aims to provide an estimation of the costs of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic with a special focus on Spain. Costs include macroeconomic costs of foregone gross domestic product (GDP) attributable to the pandemic and the direct and indirect costs of prevention, treatment and lost productivity. This study also analyzes the cost-effectiveness of the test-tracking-quarantine (TTQ) strategy in Spain.

The macroeconomic costs of foregone GDP attributable to the pandemic are estimated for different countries and areas by comparing the present GDP forecasts for 2020 and 2021 with counterfactuals estimated before the COVID-19 crisis aftermath. The total cost of the COVID-19 for Spain in 2020 was obtained using the cost of illness approach with a bottom-up process. A cost-effectiveness analysis of the TTQ strategy in Spain is based on the estimation of the total costs of TTQ and the health gains and avoided health-care costs associated with the TTQ strategy. A sensitivity analysis explores the consequences of uncertainty in key parameters.

The GDP cost of the COVID-19 is by far larger than all the other components of the cost. The global cost of the Covid-19 crisis in 2020–2021 is estimated at 14% of 2019 GDP (around 12,206 mm$). In the specific case of Spain, it amounts to 24% of the 2019 GDP; which is 397.3 m €. Spain is and will be by far the European country most economically affected by the pandemic. In Spain 2020, the GDP cost accounts for 94.7% of the total cost of the COVID-19 and health-care direct costs are only 2.14%. TTQ is a dominant strategy in Spain. For each euro spent on it, 7 euros will be recovered only in terms of saved health-care resources.

Given the large degree of uncertainty and the fast-evolving nature of the epidemic, a number of assumptions are required to arrive at the estimates provided in this study. The results were found to be robust to the assumptions applied.

TTQ is a key strategy for the contention of the epidemy and it is justified from the economic perspective.

This is the first estimation of the cost of the COVID-19 and the cost-effectiveness of the TTQ strategy for Spain.

This paper aims to provide a country case study of South Africa’s response during the first six months following its first COVID-19 case. The focus is on the government’s (mis-)management of its non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) (or “lockdown”) to stem the pandemic and the organized business sector’s resistance against the lockdown.

This paper makes use of a literature review and provides descriptive statistics and quantitative analysis of COVID-19 and the lockdown stringency in South Africa, based on data from Google Mobility Trends, Oxford University’s Stringency Index, Johns Hopkins University’s COVID-19 tracker and Our World in Data.

This paper finds that both the government and the business sector’s responses to the COVID-19 pandemic have been problematic. These key actors have been failing to “pull together,” leaving South Africa’s citizens in-between corrupt and incompetent officials on the one hand, and lockdown skeptics on the other. This paper argues that to break through this impasse, the country should change direction by agreeing on a smart or “Goldilocks” lockdown, based on data, testing, decentralization, demographics and appropriate economic support measures, including export support. Such a Goldilocks lockdown is argued, based on available evidence from the emerging scientific literature, to be able to save lives, improve trust in government, limit economic damages and moreover improve the country’s long-term recovery prospects.

The pandemic is an unprecedented crisis and moreover was still unfolding at the time of writing. This has two implications. First, precise data on the economic impact and certain epidemiological parameters was not (yet) available. Second, the causes of the mismanagement by the government are not clear yet, within such a short time frame. More research and better data may be able in future to allow conclusions to be drawn whether the problems that were besetting the country’s management of COVID-19 are unique or perhaps part of a more general problem across developing countries.

The paper provides clear practical implications for both government and organized business. The South African Government should not altogether end its lockdown measures, but follow a smart and flexible lockdown. The organized business sector should abandon its calls for ending the lockdown while the country is still among the most affected countries in the world, and no vaccine is available.

There should be better collaboration between government, business and civil society to manage a smart lockdown. Government should re-establish lost trust because of the mismanagement of the lockdown during the first six months of the pandemic.

The outline of the smart lockdown that is proposed for the country combines NPIs with the promotion of exports, as a policy intervention to help aggregate demand to recover. The paper provides advice on how to resolve an impasse created by mismanagement of COVID-19, which could be valuable for decision-making during a crisis, particularly in developing countries.

The outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 virus and subsequent COVID-19 illness has had a major impact on all levels of society internationally. The extent of the impact of COVID-19 on prison staff and prisoners in England and Wales is unknown. Testing for COVID-19 both asymptomatic and symptomatic, as well as for antibodies, to date, has been minimal. The purpose of this paper is to explore the widespread testing of COVID-19 in prisons poses philosophical and ethical questions around trust, efficacy and ethicacy.

This paper is both descriptive, providing an overview of the widespread testing of COVID-19 in prisoners in England and Wales, and conceptual in that it discusses and argues the issues associated with large-scale testing. This paper provides a discussion, using comparative studies, of the issues associated with large-scale testing of prisoners across the prison estate in England and Wales (120 prisons). The issues identified in this paper are contextualised through the lens of COVID-19, but they are equally transferrable to epidemiological studies of any pandemic. Given the prevalence of COVID-19 globally and the lack of information about its spread in prisons, at the time of writing this paper, there is a programme of asymptomatic testing of prisoners. However, there remains a paucity of data on the spread of COVID-19 in prisons because of the progress with the ongoing testing programme.

The authors argue that the widespread testing of prisoners requires careful consideration of the details regarding who is included in testing, how consent is gained and how tests are administered. This paper outlines and argues the importance of considering the complex nuance of power relationships within the prison system, among prisoner officers, medical staff and prisoners and the detrimental consequences.

The widespread testing of COVID-19 presents ethical and practical challenges. Careful planning is required when considering the ethics of who should be included in COVID-19 testing, how consent will be gained, who and how tests will be administered and very practical challenges around the recording and assigning of COVID-19 test kits inside the prison. The current system for the general population requires scanning of barcodes and registration using a mobile number; these facilities are not permitted inside a prison.

This paper looks at the issues associated with mass testing of prisoners for COVID-19. According to the authors’ knowledge, there has not been any research that looks at the issues of testing either in the UK or internationally. The literature available details countries’ responses to the pandemic rather and scientific papers on the development of vaccines. Therefore, this paper is an original review of some of the practicalities that need to be addressed to ensure that testing can be as successful as possible.

As a developing country, India initiated several labor measures to contain the Covid-19 pandemic. This study analyzes the impact of the Covid-19-induced comprehensive labor measures by Indian states on the Case Fatality Ratios and Recovery Rates. Such an analysis will provide deeper insights into the importance of labor measures during a health emergency. It will also be a reality check to the existing National Health Policy.

The study examines the four major aspects of labor measures on migration, social security, state-specific needs and health and human rights. The authors use these to formulate a composite labor measure index to comprehend the Covid-19-induced various labor measures. Additionally, the authors apply pooled ordinary least squares and panel random-effects models with the state-wise monthly data to examine the impact of Covid-19-induced labor measures on the severity of the pandemic.

Covid-19-induced comprehensive labor measures reduce fatalities and increase recovery rates. In particular, the measures on labor migration, state-specific needs and health and human rights adopted by the Indian states successfully reduce the Covid-19 fatalities and improve the recovery rates. However, the measures taken to address social security have been ineffective in reducing the severity of the pandemic. The study results are robust to various other specifications.

The time period covered in this research is very brief and does not account for the qualitative impact of labor measures on the severity of the pandemic. This study specifically addresses the number of Covid-19-induced labor measures and not the resources allocated to their implementations or the number of people who benefited from the measures.

This study emphasizes the need for subnational comprehensive labor measures to reduce the severity of the pandemic in developing countries. The study confirms the need for effective Covid-19-induced social security measures to cope with the pandemic in India. This study also ascertains the beneficial impact of the measures on migration, state-specific needs and health and human rights.

The authors make a composite labor measure index that captures state-level Covid-19-induced labor measures on diverse aspects, namely migration, social security, state-specific need and health and human rights, hitherto unexplored. In addition, the authors analyze the impact of these labor measures on the severity of the pandemic.

The SARS epidemic in 2003 and the COVID-19 pandemic had a disruptive impact on countries around the world and highlight the importance of using scientific evidence to inform policy decisions and priorities during crises. The purpose of this article is to reflect upon the term “following the science” and examines the differences between SARS in 2003 and COVID-19.

This study is exploratory, adopts a qualitative approach and reflects on the synthesis of scientific evidence into advice informing government decisions on health interventions. Random sampling of the literature was used to avoid bias and was guided by the keywords.

It considers preparedness activities and the need for these to be integral in the design of future planning. It argues that simulation exercises be intrinsically linked to all aspects of crisis management and provide the opportunity to use the scientific evidence base as part of preparedness planning. The article concludes that more transparency in the use of scientific advice in strategic decision-making would support building more resilience into health emergency preparedness through an integrated systems approach.

This article contributes to the literature on the evaluation of the “following the science” approach and its implementation. It also contributes to the limited literature on simulation exercising to deal with health crises, like pandemics and identifies potential areas for further research or work on developing an integrated systems approach to pandemic preparedness.

The COVID-19 pandemic and its related economic meltdown and social unrest severely challenged most countries, their societies, economies, organizations, and individual citizens. Focusing on both more and less successful country-specific initiatives to fight the pandemic and its multitude of related consequences, this chapter explores implications for leadership and effective action at the individual, organizational, and societal levels. As international management scholars and consultants, the authors document actions taken and their wide-ranging consequences in a diverse set of countries, including countries that have been more or less successful in fighting the pandemic, are geographically larger and smaller, are located in each region of the world, are economically advanced and economically developing, and that chose unique strategies versus strategies more similar to those of their neighbors. Cultural influences on leadership, strategy, and outcomes are described for 19 countries. Informed by a cross-cultural lens, the authors explore such urgent questions as: What is most important for leaders, scholars, and organizations to learn from critical, life-threatening, society-encompassing crises and grand challenges? How do leaders build and maintain trust? What types of communication are most effective at various stages of a crisis? How can we accelerate learning processes globally? How does cultural resilience emerge within rapidly changing environments of fear, shifting cultural norms, and profound challenges to core identity and meaning? This chapter invites readers and authors alike to learn from each other and to begin to discover novel and more successful approaches to tackling grand challenges. It is not definitive; we are all still learning.

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced governments of different countries to implement unprecedented strategies with the aim of reducing the rate of contagion and mitigating its economic and social effects. In this scenario, the purpose of this paper is to analyze four fundamental strategies, namely, testing and diagnosis, macroprudential, labor market and social assistance, based on the crisis management theory.

This research note is based on a review of the principal official legislations regarding the strategies implemented during the first 80 days from the first zero case registered in the Pacific Alliance countries.

The review shows that the Pacific Alliance countries have implemented similar strategies regarding macroprudential and labor market measures. On the other hand, there are differences among the strategies related to testing and diagnostic and social assistance.

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly affected Latin American countries due to their economic and social problems. In this sense, the reporting and analysis of the principal strategies implemented by the Pacific Alliance countries constitute a baseline to understand the effectiveness of these strategies in mitigating the negative effects of the pandemic.

La pandemia de COVID-19 ha obligado a gobiernos de diferentes países a implementar estrategias sin precedentes con el objetivo de reducir la tasa de contagio y mitigar sus efectos económicos y sociales. En este escenario, el propósito de esta nota de investigación es analizar cuatro estrategias fundamentales: testeo y diagnóstico, macro-prudencial, mercado laboral y asistencia social, con base en la Teoría del Manejo de Crisis.

Esta nota de investigación se basa en una revisión de las principales legislaciones oficiales sobre las estrategias implementadas durante los primeros 80 días desde el primer caso registrado en los países de la Alianza del Pacífico.

La revisión muestra que los países de la Alianza del Pacífico han implementado estrategias similares con respecto a medidas macro-prudenciales y del mercado laboral. Por otro lado, existen diferencias entre las estrategias relacionadas con las pruebas y el diagnóstico, y la asistencia social.

La pandemia de COVID-19 ha afectado significativamente a los países de América Latina debido a sus problemas económicos y sociales. En este sentido, el reporte y análisis de las principales estrategias implementadas por los países de la Alianza del Pacífico constituyen una línea de base para comprender la efectividad de estas estrategias en la mitigación de los efectos negativos de la pandemia.

A pandemia COVID-19 obrigou governos de diferentes países a implementarem estratégias sem precedentes com o objetivo de reduzir a taxa de contágio e mitigar seus efeitos econômicos e sociais. Neste cenário, o objetivo desta nota de pesquisa é analisar quatro estratégias fundamentais: testagem e diagnóstico, macro-prudencial, mercado de trabalho e assistência social, com base na Teoria de Gestão de Crises.

Esta nota de pesquisa é baseada em uma revisão da principal legislação oficial sobre as estratégias implementadas durante os primeiros 80 dias a partir do primeiro caso registrado nos países da Aliança do Pacífico.

A análise mostra que os países da Aliança do Pacífico implementaram estratégias semelhantes com respeito as medidas macro-prudenciais e do mercado de trabalho. Por outro lado, há diferenças entre as estratégias relacionadas a testagem e diagnóstico, e assistência social.

A pandemia COVID-19 afetou significativamente os países latino-americanos devido a seus problemas econômicos e sociais. Nesse sentido, o relatório e a análise das principais estratégias implementadas pelos países da Aliança do Pacífico constituem uma linha de base para entender a eficácia dessas estratégias na mitigação dos efeitos negativos da pandemia.