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Convergence of testing and positivity rates for the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from Germany and Italy

Esra N. Kılcı (Department of Health Economics, Istanbul University-Cerrahpaşa, Istanbul, Turkey)

International Journal of Health Governance

ISSN: 2059-4631

Article publication date: 27 June 2022

Issue publication date: 21 October 2022

79

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to analyze the convergence of the testing and positivity rates for the COVID-19 pandemic focusing on Germany and Italy.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors employ the two-regime threshold autoregressive (TAR) panel unit root test by using the weekly data in the period of 2020:03-2021:04.

Findings

Following finding out that the testing and positivity rates are nonlinear, the authors determine that the transition country between the two regimes is Italy for the testing rates and Germany for the positivity rates. Their findings support the partial convergence for the testing rates for Germany and Italy. On the other hand, the authors could not find any convergence for the positivity rates of these two countries.

Originality/value

This paper contributes to academic literature in several ways. Firstly, to the best of their knowledge, this paper is the first study that analyzes the convergence of testing and positivity data. This paper further focuses on two Euro-Area countries which have suffered significantly from the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, the authors employ the two-regime threshold autoregressive (TAR) panel unit root proposed by Beyaert and Camacho (2008) in their empirical analysis. This recent panel data methodology aims to test real convergence in a nonlinear framework by incorporating the threshold model, panel data unit root test and the calculation of critical values by bootstrap simulation.

Keywords

Acknowledgements

Data availability statement: The data that support the findings of this study are available on request from the corresponding author.

Funding statement: There is no funding.

Conflict of interest disclosure: The authors declare no competing interests.

Citation

Kılcı, E.N. (2022), "Convergence of testing and positivity rates for the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from Germany and Italy", International Journal of Health Governance, Vol. 27 No. 4, pp. 425-440. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHG-03-2022-0032

Publisher

:

Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2022, Emerald Publishing Limited

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