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Despite the common focus on studying future events, the study of risk management and foresight have developed as two segmented scientific fields. This study aims to investigate whether current risk management methodology is sufficient for long-term planning against threats from terrorism and other black swan events, and whether perspectives from foresight studies can contribute to more effective long-term security planning.

This study investigates the planning process of the rebuilding of the Norwegian Government Complex destroyed during a terrorist attack in 2011. The study examines whether security risk managers find current security risk management methodology sufficient for dealing with long-term security threats to the Norwegian Government Complex.

Current security risk management methodology for long-term security planning is insufficient to capture black swan events. Foresight perspectives could contribute by engaging tools to mitigate the risk of these events. This could lead to more robust security planning.

The main contribution of this paper is to investigate whether perspectives and methodology from foresight studies can improve current security risk management methodology for long-term planning and look for cross-fertilization between foresight and risk studies. A framework for scenario development based on security risk management methodology and foresight methodology is proposed that can help bridge the gap.

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the changes of the Italian textile district of Prato, considered an exemplary case of the industrial district (ID) model, using a business network perspective. The “Black Swan” metaphor is used to address the changes in the Prato textile district in order to understand whether such changes have been an unexpected and unpredictable phenomenon, or they can be explain with a different theoretical tool-box, namely, that developed by the industrial network approach.

The paper utilizes already published studies on the changes of the textile/fashion companies located to the Prato area. Both studies that have been carried out within an ID approach and those carried out with an Industrial Marketing and Purchasing (IMP) point of departure are considered in the research. Both types of studies were utilized to identify empirical observed changes of the producer, respectively user setting that the Prato located companies was related to, including identification of changes affecting both the local setting and the larger network it was related to.

The utilization of the IMP model proposes a learning ground that exceed the local context and open ups of investigations of opportunities and threats stemming from interactions across spatial borders. Analysed from an interactive point of view, in the specific context of Prato, the exploitation of the opportunities given by establishing relationship between natives and migrants actors goes through the creation of interactions among actors representing specific resource combinations and activity structures – within and outside the local community.

The paper concerns how the same research object – the changes of the Prato district – appears from another perspective different from the ID theory, namely, the industrial network approach developed by scholars of the IMP Group.

This study examines co-production during the Covid-19 crisis, characterized as a Black Swan event, with a specific emphasis on local professionals’ preparedness and response.

A qualitative approach combining deductive and inductive approaches was employed to gather data from professional coordinators of co-production processes in Israeli local governments. The study utilizes professionalism theory as a framework to examine such key elements as professional knowledge, autonomy, status and legitimacy. Additionally, open coding is used to investigate emerging themes.

The findings reveal that, despite preventive efforts by the central government, local professionals were unprepared to address the crisis. Traditional top-down approaches failed during the crisis, emphasizing the need for peer learning and collaboration among various stakeholders. Professionals' de facto autonomy, driven by quick decision-making and creative problem-solving, elevated their legitimacy and status. Inter- and intra-organizational collaboration was essential to maintain performance through co-producing public services. Finally, multicultural awareness proved vital; neglecting this may have severe consequences in routine times but especially during crises.

Using qualitative research, this study emphasizes the importance of understanding context in interpreting thoughts and actions. However, our approach has limitations. We collected data at a single point in time, which may not capture changes over time. Additionally, we relied on self-reporting from 19 public professionals in local municipalities, each managing the coproduction-based center within the respective municipality. However, this setup, where a single coordinator represents the entire co-production function of the municipality, has its limitations as only one voice is heard.

By shedding light on the multifaceted aspects of co-production, policymakers and professionals could learn about such substantial factors as professionals’ autonomy, inter-organizational collaborations and sensitivity to cultural nuances, which should be established first and foremost in routine times to prepare for crisis. In our case study, governmental preventive measures were inapplicable to crises, and experience of prior crises did not necessarily bestow an ability to prepare accordingly. This is where the role of the street-level professionals becomes significant: these are the actors who experience the crisis on the ground and may provide a quick and effective response. Their ability to take the reins, to be innovative and to generate knowledge while exerting their own professional consideration, proved extremely important.

This research contributes to our understanding of public service professionals’ effective leveraging of the contributions of co-producers in times of crisis. It shifts focus from top-down policy preparedness and implementation to the development of appropriate organizational structures and active and routine stakeholder engagement, thereby enhancing preparedness for crises.

Market development.

This case is intended to be used in strategic management, operations management for both undergraduate and graduate courses. It can also be used for value innovation and market development.

This case focuses on market development by Patanjali, a fast-growing organization crossing US$1bn of sales in five years of time span and declaring a target of doubling this figure in the financial year 2016-2017 (to reach US$1,500m). The prime focus of Patanjali is the health food segment based on herbal and Ayurveda science through the use of organically grown agricultural produce by integrating the associated value chains while radically benefitting all the stakeholders in a two-way process as suppliers as well as buyers/consumers. The fundamental context of the case is associated with the value chain development in terms of value addition on the basis of the organizational and leadership values in all the elements of the value chain of Patanjali products starting from suppliers to customers. The case emphasizes the role of the Patanjali Food & Herbal park in the value chain. Patanjali Food & Herbal Park is constantly striving for nation building more than profit accumulation. They have created a sustainable business benefiting all the stakeholders. The backbone of the Patanjali Food & Herbal Park lies in robust backward linkage and forward linkage. The context of the case presents an account of how the values based integration of the value chain is a strategic advantage and safeguards an organization from business environment threats.

The context of the case presents an account of how values based integration of the value chain is a strategic advantage and safeguard an organization from business environment threats. The case has a deep-rooted theoretical association with models like Porter’s Five Forces model on the one hand and also exemplifies how an organization can use blue ocean strategy through value-based value innovation. The context of the Black Swan perspective also emerges in the narration.

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CSS 11: Strategy.

The purpose of this study is to propose a methodological approach for modeling catastrophic consequences caused by black swan events, based on complexity science, and framed on Feyerabend’s anarchistic theory of knowledge. An empirical application is presented to illustrate the proposed approach.

Thom’s nonlinear differential equations of morphogenesis are used to develop a theoretical model of the impact of catastrophes on international business (IB). The model is then estimated using real-world data on the performance of multinational airlines during the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic.

The catastrophe model exhibits a remarkable capability to simultaneously capture complex linear and nonlinear relationships. Through empirical estimations and simulations, this approach enables the analysis of IB phenomena under normal conditions, as well as during black swan events.

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this study is the first attempt to estimate the impact of black swan events in IB using a catastrophe model grounded in complexity theory. The proposed model successfully integrates the abrupt and profound effects of catastrophes on multinational corporations, offering a critical perspective on the theoretical and practical use of complexity science in IB.

The growing displacement of theory and other forms of wide-ranging knowledge of social phenomena by empirical research methods in economics is widely noted by economists and historians of economic knowledge. Less attention has been devoted, however, to understand the materialization of such changes in the scientific practices. This article studies the recent transformations in the epistemological practices at CEDE, a research center in Colombia. I use a machine learning technique called Topic Modeling, interviews to CEDE researchers, and exegesis of papers to characterize a shift in the production of knowledge in microeconometrics at CEDE during the years 2000 and 2018. I explain this shift by characterizing two sets of epistemological practices that implies a recent tendency to disdain research that cannot make a “strong” causal inference.

This study aims to propose that, in business-to-business (B2B) industries, number of strategic alliances firms established before a “black swan” event enhances their chances to survive the black swan, and the enhancements take place through moderation effects. Changes in firms’ core structures – their stated goals, authority structure, core technologies and marketing strategies – to adapt to business jolts have adverse effects on firm performance. Firms’ existing B2B strategic alliances moderate the effects negatively by outsourcing different goals, authority structures, core technologies and marketing strategies to partners who fit the changed environment.

This study collected quantitative data and analyzed the data with the regression method.

Using data from Chinese firms in five technology industries during the 2007–2009 economic crisis, this study finds that firms’ internal adaptation is negatively correlated with their performance during economic crises, and B2B strategic alliances negatively moderate this relationship.

First, this study focuses on B2B strategic alliances, and it is not clear whether the findings apply to B2C industries, where strategic alliances may not be common. Perhaps firms can use other means of survival in addition to strategic alliances in B2C industries. Second, this study does not differentiate between fast-moving and slow-moving industries, and it is not clear whether strategic alliances play the same role in both industries. Third, this study does not differentiate firm ages and sizes. It remains unclear how large, established and small, young firms differ when facing crises. Finally, this study is based on the Chinese setting, and it is not clear whether the findings apply to other markets as well. These issues should be explored in future studies.

Changing firms’ core structures harms their performance during black swan crises because such crises are unpredictable, and planned changes may not adapt firms to crises. Managers should not attempt to change their core structures during crises. B2B strategic alliances provide an effective means for firms to survive crises.

This paper makes two contributions to the existing literature: First, this paper demonstrates that changes of one of the four core structures of a firm to cope with black swan events have negative impacts on firm performance. Second, this paper identifies the importance of holding a variety of strategic alliances previously to the black swan events to reduce the negative impacts of changing core structures.

The emergence of “black swans” represents (according to Taleb) “[…] our misunderstanding of the likelihood of surprises”. The purpose of this paper is to study accidents and disasters and the inherent misunderstanding and absence of awareness associated with the existence of black swans and their complex aetiology. Red teaming and scenario planning provide a methodology to explore the uncertainties and challenge of the mental models associated with accident and disaster aetiology.

The argument draws upon the successful application of red teaming and scenario planning in various domains noted in the literature and lessons learned from the failure to recognize black swans. An analysis of the literature illustrates how the salient characteristics of red teaming and scenario planning can be applied to the illumination of black swans to support risk, crisis and disaster management.

Recognizing the uncertainty resident within the safety and security problem space opens up the notion that more than one future is potentially open. It is argued that the inherent properties of red teaming, within the context of scenario planning, facilitates an effective approach to bring risk, crisis and disaster planners/managers together to discuss their concerns and explore the factors creating uncertainty and the emergence of black swans.

The value of red teaming (scenario planning) to challenge linear thinking and recognize the inherent uncertainty in the space of possibilities is well supported. Applied to the risk, crisis and disaster management domain, red teaming and scenario planning can provide insights into the emergence of black swans and thereby shape mitigation strategies.

There has been an increasing interest amongst the researchers to work and explore, “Black Swan” events which are not well studied. However, the “Black Swan” events hold an eminent relevance amongst academicians and practitioners. The present study offers nuanced understanding of “Black Swan” events.

We undertook an extensive bibliometric analysis of the extant literature using “Black Swan” as guiding keyword with the help of SCOPUS database.

The search for articles only yielded 59 articles. Our analyses highlight the prominent works, authors and journals. Further, this study reveal the research gaps that may help guide future scholars interested in “Black Swan” events to examine in different context.

The current study develops a research agenda and offers numerous research directions. Research on “Black Swan” events can be apprehended at three different stages – pre-black swan event, about black swan event and post-black swan event with identified sub-themes.

This paper is the pioneer research work to dedicatedly analyse the existing set of literature with “Black Swan”.

The primary purpose of this paper is to review and critique Taleb's notion of black swan blindness for a subset of the broader field of financial economics – the search for capital adequacy rules for financial institutions who invest in residential mortgages. This search entails the analysis and prediction of extreme events in housing and mortgage markets.

The focus of this paper concerns efforts to assess the likelihood and consequences of extreme and consequential economic events prior to their occurrence. The goal is to assess the criticism offered by Taleb that economists overstate the understanding of extreme events. One piece of evidence consists of a case study of the literature and policies regarding capital adequacy for financial institutions who invest in residential mortgages. The other is a review of recent literature about the crisis that offers similar conclusions.

The evidence suggests that the criticism is valid. The case study reviews a number of areas in which the search for capital adequacy reflected the traits of black swan blindness as described by Taleb. The review of the recent literature about the crisis highlights a number of papers that reach similar conclusions. These include high level overviews of the literature on the crisis, e.g. Lo, a number of papers that specifically focus on housing and mortgage markets, and some very recent work about agent based modeling and complexity theory presented at the 2012 ARES meetings.

The conclusion suggests a number of ways in which economists can combat the potential of black swan blindness is our search for extreme events. One suggestion is to combat the error of confirmation with ongoing testing. Combating overly simplistic narratives can also be addressed by listening more carefully to the criticisms by people outside the field. Pay more attention to silent evidence by having more substantial and ongoing consumer testing of new products, more work to identify best practices, and more resources to enforce lending laws. Finally, more attention needs to be focused upon assumptions in the models that are based upon limited empirical evidence and, if found later to be false, may lead to dire outcomes.

These include more and ongoing evaluation of stress tests. New rules to adjust capital requirements over the business cycle are consistent with the suggestions of the paper. Economists need to spend more time exploring and learning from outliers in the models.

The recent crisis has been driven by a wide variety of factors from within many sectors and agents. The outcome has been a major problem for people in many sectors and regions of the economy. The hope is that economists can do a better job in the future to help policymakers and others be more prepared for the potential of extreme events in the hopes of avoiding them in the future or at least reducing their likelihood and damage caused by them.

The paper draws upon a wide variety of literature to establish its main points. Central to it is a review of an issue on which the author had substantial experience – academic and professional – and that also played a major role in the crisis – inadequate capital for an extreme downturn in house prices.