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This study aims to develop an assessment methodology using a Bayesian network (BN) to predict the failure probability of oil tanker shipping firms.

This paper proposes a bankruptcy prediction model by applying the hybrid of logistic regression and Bayesian probabilistic networks.

The proposed model shows its potential of contributing to a powerful tool to predict financial bankruptcy of shipping operators, and provides important insights to the maritime community as to what performance measures should be taken to ensure the shipping companies’ financial soundness under dynamic environments.

The model and its associated variables can be expanded to include more factors for an in-depth analysis in future when the detailed information at firm level becomes available.

The results of this study can be implemented to oil tanker shipping firms as a prediction tool for bankruptcy rate.

Incorporating quantitative statistical measurement, the application of BN in financial risk management provides advantages to develop a powerful early warning system in shipping, which has unique characteristics such as capital intensive and mobile assets, possibly leading to catastrophic consequences.

Destinations to be able to compete with each other need to equip themselves with as many competitive advantages as possible. Tourists' loyalty to a destination is considered as a prominent competitive tool for destinations. Tourists' loyalty manifests itself in recommendation of the destination to others, repeat visit of the destination and willingness to revisit the destination. Although a plethora of studies have tried to define models to show the relation between loyalty and the antecedent factors leading up to it, few of them have tried to integrate these models with mathematical approaches for better understanding of loyalty behavior. The purpose of this paper is to integrate a tourist destination model with Bayesian Network in order to predict the behaviour of destination loyalty and its antecedent factors.

This paper has developed a probability model by the integration of a destination loyalty model with a Bayesian network (BN) which enables to predict and analyze the behavior of loyalty and its influential factors. To demonstrate the application of this framework, Tehran, the capital of Iran, was chosen as a destination case study.

The outcome of this research will assist in identifying the weak key points in the tourist destination area for giving insights to the marketers, businesses and policy makers for making better decisions related to destination loyalty. In the analysis process, the most influential factors were recognized as the travel environment image, natural/historical attractions and, with a lower degree, infrastructure image which help the decision maker to detect and reinforce the weak factors and put more effort in focusing on improving the necessary parts rather than the irrelevant parts.

The research identified all critical factors that have the most influence on destination loyalty while driving the associate uncertainty which is significant for the tourism industry. This resulted in better decision-making which is used to identify the impact of tourism destination loyalty.

Project-driven supply chain risks pose a significant threat to the success of complex development projects, in terms of achieving key performances such as quality, time and efficiency. The purpose of this paper is to adopt a supply chain quality perspective in order to explore and better understand the unique attributes of risks associated with project-driven supply chains for continuously improving the quality of both processes and products.

Theoretically grounded in the framework of Bayesian Belief Networks and Game theory, this paper develops a structured process for assessing and managing risks in project-driven supply chains. The application of the proposed approach is demonstrated through a simulation case study conducted on the development project of Boeing 787 aircraft.

The conflicting incentives amongst stakeholders in a supply chain can jeopardise the success of a project and therefore, assessment of this category of risks classified as “Game theoretic risks” needs special consideration. Project-driven supply chain risks pose a significant threat to the success of complex projects. The results of the study clearly revealed that without mitigating the game theoretic risks, the main objective of timely completion of the Boeing 787 project was not materialised. Further, the lack of management expertise was the major factor contributing to the overall project costs including cost of quality.

The proposed process and analyses present a significant and original insight in terms of capturing the key determinants of both product and service quality such as product performance, convenience and reliability of service, timeliness, ease of maintenance, flexibility, and customer satisfaction and comfort. Propositions are developed for ascertaining the significance of information sharing in a project-driven supply chain, and a fair sharing partnership is introduced to help supply chain managers in managing game theoretic risks in order to achieve the goals of quality, time and efficiency.

Loan default risk or credit risk evaluation is important to financial institutions which provide loans to businesses and individuals. Loans carry the risk of being defaulted. To understand the risk levels of credit users (corporations and individuals), credit providers (bankers) normally collect vast amounts of information on borrowers. Statistical predictive analytic techniques can be used to analyse or to determine the risk levels involved in loans. This paper aims to address the question of default prediction of short-term loans for a Tunisian commercial bank.

The authors have used a database of 924 files of credits granted to industrial Tunisian companies by a commercial bank in the years 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006. The naive Bayesian classifier algorithm was used, and the results show that the good classification rate is of the order of 63.85 per cent. The default probability is explained by the variables measuring working capital, leverage, solvency, profitability and cash flow indicators.

The results of the validation test show that the good classification rate is of the order of 58.66 per cent; nevertheless, the error types I and II remain relatively high at 42.42 and 40.47 per cent, respectively. A receiver operating characteristic curve is plotted to evaluate the performance of the model. The result shows that the area under the curve criterion is of the order of 69 per cent.

The paper highlights the fact that the Tunisian central bank obliged all commercial banks to conduct a survey study to collect qualitative data for better credit notation of the borrowers.

El riesgo de incumplimiento de préstamos o la evaluación del riesgo de crédito es importante para las instituciones financieras que otorgan préstamos a empresas e individuos. Existe el riesgo de que el pago de préstamos no se cumpla. Para entender los niveles de riesgo de los usuarios de crédito (corporaciones e individuos), los proveedores de crédito (banqueros) normalmente recogen gran cantidad de información sobre los prestatarios. Las técnicas analíticas predictivas estadísticas pueden utilizarse para analizar o determinar los niveles de riesgo involucrados en los préstamos. En este artículo abordamos la cuestión de la predicción por defecto de los préstamos a corto plazo para un banco comercial tunecino.

Utilizamos una base de datos de 924 archivos de créditos concedidos a empresas industriales tunecinas por un banco comercial en 2003, 2004, 2005 y 2006. El algoritmo bayesiano de clasificadores se llevó a cabo y los resultados muestran que la tasa de clasificación buena es del orden del 63.85%. La probabilidad de incumplimiento se explica por las variables que miden el capital de trabajo, el apalancamiento, la solvencia, la rentabilidad y los indicadores de flujo de efectivo.

Los resultados de la prueba de validación muestran que la buena tasa de clasificación es del orden de 58.66% ; sin embargo, los errores tipo I y II permanecen relativamente altos, siendo de 42.42% y 40.47%, respectivamente. Se traza una curva ROC para evaluar el rendimiento del modelo. El resultado muestra que el criterio de área bajo curva (AUC, por sus siglas en inglés) es del orden del 69%.

El documento destaca el hecho de que el Banco Central tunecino obligó a todas las entidades del sector llevar a cabo un estudio de encuesta para recopilar datos cualitativos para un mejor registro de crédito de los prestatarios.

Curva ROC, Evaluación de riesgos, Riesgo de incumplimiento, Sector bancario, Algoritmo clasificador bayesiano.

Artículo de investigación

Classifying moving objects in video sequences has been extensively studied, yet it is still an ongoing problem. In this paper, we propose to solve moving objects classification problem via an extended version of two-dimensional principal component analysis (2DPCA), named as category-wise 2DPCA (CW2DPCA). A key component of the CW2DPCA is to independently construct optimal projection matrices from object-specific training datasets and produce category-wise feature spaces, wherein each feature space uniquely captures the invariant characteristics of the underlying intra-category samples. Consequently, on one hand, CW2DPCA enables early separation among the different object categories and, on the other hand, extracts effective discriminative features for representing both training datasets and test objects samples in the classification model, which is a nearest neighbor classifier. For ease of exposition, we consider human/vehicle classification, although the proposed CW2DPCA-based classification framework can be easily generalized to handle multiple objects classification. The experimental results prove the effectiveness of CW2DPCA features in discriminating between humans and vehicles in two publicly available video datasets.

Financial health of a corporation is a great concern for every investor level and decision-makers. For many years, financial solvency prediction is a significant issue throughout academia, precisely in finance. This requirement leads this study to check whether machine learning can be implemented in financial solvency prediction.

This study analyzed 244 Dhaka stock exchange public-listed companies over the 2015–2019 period, and two subsets of data are also developed as training and testing datasets. For machine learning model building, samples are classified as secure, healthy and insolvent by the Altman Z-score. R statistical software is used to make predictive models of five classifiers and all model performances are measured with different performance metrics such as logarithmic loss (logLoss), area under the curve (AUC), precision recall AUC (prAUC), accuracy, kappa, sensitivity and specificity.

This study found that the artificial neural network classifier has 88% accuracy and sensitivity rate; also, AUC for this model is 96%. However, the ensemble classifier outperforms all other models by considering logLoss and other metrics.

The major result of this study can be implicated to the financial institution for credit scoring, credit rating and loan classification, etc. And other companies can implement machine learning models to their enterprise resource planning software to trace their financial solvency.

Finally, a predictive application is developed through training a model with 1,200 observations and making it available for all rational and novice investors (Abdullah, 2020).

This study found that, with the best of author expertise, the author did not find any studies regarding machine learning research of financial solvency that examines a comparable number of a dataset, with all these models in Bangladesh.

To proactively draw efficient maintenance plans, road agencies should be able to forecast main road distress parameters, such as cracking, rutting, deflection and International Roughness Index (IRI). Nonetheless, the behavior of those parameters throughout pavement life cycles is associated with high uncertainty, resulting from various interrelated factors that fluctuate over time. This study aims to propose the use of dynamic Bayesian belief networks for the development of time-series prediction models to probabilistically forecast road distress parameters.

While Bayesian belief network (BBN) has the merit of capturing uncertainty associated with variables in a domain, dynamic BBNs, in particular, are deemed ideal for forecasting road distress over time due to its Markovian and invariant transition probability properties. Four dynamic BBN models are developed to represent rutting, deflection, cracking and IRI, using pavement data collected from 32 major road sections in the United Arab Emirates between 2013 and 2019. Those models are based on several factors affecting pavement deterioration, which are classified into three categories traffic factors, environmental factors and road-specific factors.

The four developed performance prediction models achieved an overall precision and reliability rate of over 80%.

The proposed approach provides flexibility to illustrate road conditions under various scenarios, which is beneficial for pavement maintainers in obtaining a realistic representation of expected future road conditions, where maintenance efforts could be prioritized and optimized.

The purpose of the food traceability is used to retain the good quality of raw material supply, diminish the loss and reduced system complexity.

The proposed hybrid algorithm is for food traceability to make accurate predictions and enhanced period data. The operation of the internet of things is addressed to track and trace the food quality to check the data acquired from manufacturers and consumers.

In order to survive with the existing financial circumstances and the development of global food supply chain, the authors propose efficient food traceability techniques using the internet of things and obtain a solution for data prediction.

The operation of the internet of things is addressed to track and trace the food quality to check the data acquired from manufacturers and consumers. The experimental analysis depicts that proposed algorithm has high accuracy rate, less execution time and error rate.

This study aims to analyze information on vessel traffic between the two Koreas with a probability distribution for each route/vessel type. The study will then conduct an estimate for maritime transport patterns of inter-Korean trade in the future. To analyze the flow of inter-Korean coastal shipping, this study conducted visualization analysis of shipping status between North and South Korea by year, ship type, and port using navigation data of three years from Port Logistics Information System (Port-MIS) sources during 2006 to 2008, which saw the most active exchanges between the two governments. Also, this study analyzes shipping status between the two governments as a probability distribution for each port and provides the prospects for future maritime transport for inter-Korean trade by means of Bayesian Networks and simulation. The results of the analysis are as follows: i) when North-South routes are reopened, the import volume for sand from North Korea will be increased; ii) investment in the modernization of ports in North Korea is required so that shipping companies can generate profit through economies of scale; iii) the number of the operating vessels including container ships between the two governments is expected to increase like when the tensions and conflict on the Korean Peninsula was release, especially between Busan port in South Korea and Nampo port in North Korea; and iv) among container ships, transshipment containers imported and exported through Busan Port will be shipped to North Korea by feeder transportation.

The purpose of this study is to establish a systematic framework to characterise the safety of air routes, in terms of separation minima infringements (SMIs) between en-route aircraft, based on the definition of models known as safety performance functions.

Techniques with high predictive capability were selected that enable both expert knowledge and data to be harnessed: Bayesian networks. It was necessary to establish a conceptual framework that integrates the knowledge currently available on the causality and precursors of SMIs with the hindsight derived from the analysis of the type of data available. To translate the conceptual framework into a set of causal subnets, the concepts of air traffic management (ATM) barrier model and event trees have been incorporated.

The model combines analytics and insights, as well as predictive capability, to answer the question of how airspace separation infringements are produced and what their frequency of occurrence will be. The main outputs of the network are the predicted probability of success for the ATM barriers and the predicted probability distribution of the vertical and horizontal separation of an aircraft in its closest point of approach.

The main contribution of this work is that, by virtue of the calculation capacity obtained, the network can be used to draw conclusions about the impact that a modification of the airspace and of the traffic, or operational conditions, would have on the effectiveness of the barriers and on the final distributions of distance between aircraft in the CPA, thereby estimating the probability of SMI.