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This study aims to develop an assessment methodology using a Bayesian network (BN) to predict the failure probability of oil tanker shipping firms.

This paper proposes a bankruptcy prediction model by applying the hybrid of logistic regression and Bayesian probabilistic networks.

The proposed model shows its potential of contributing to a powerful tool to predict financial bankruptcy of shipping operators, and provides important insights to the maritime community as to what performance measures should be taken to ensure the shipping companies’ financial soundness under dynamic environments.

The model and its associated variables can be expanded to include more factors for an in-depth analysis in future when the detailed information at firm level becomes available.

The results of this study can be implemented to oil tanker shipping firms as a prediction tool for bankruptcy rate.

Incorporating quantitative statistical measurement, the application of BN in financial risk management provides advantages to develop a powerful early warning system in shipping, which has unique characteristics such as capital intensive and mobile assets, possibly leading to catastrophic consequences.

The competitive pressures of the past several years and the ongoing financial meltdown has driven most tanker owners and operators to rethink their business strategy. In addition, new green technologies are providing opportunities to reduce the environmental impact of the shipping industry. Given the parameters of the situation, this paper analyzes the case of Teekay Shipping, one of the market leaders. In particular, this paper addresses Teekay's specific advantages and their sustainability under rapidly changing competitive conditions.

This paper utilizes a series of analytical methods to provide an exploratory understanding of Teekay's strategic positions. Teekay's business model will be analyzed in the context of social, technological, economic, environmental and political trends and SWOT analysis is also explored.

The gaps in Teekay's business model in relation to growth opportunities and inconsistencies in its strategic efforts are revealed along with recommendations and conclusions. This paper contributes to a greater understanding of the complex and changing factors that shape the shipping industry, and should therefore lead to more effective nautical management.

With the use of the discussed strategic management tools in this paper, which have proven successful in other industries, it can be expected to enhance Teekay's management of its business, proving another success for the cross-fertilization of ideas.

Scandia, Inc., is a commercial vessel management company located in the New York Metropolitan area and is part of a family of firms including Scandia Technical; International Tankers, Ltd.; Global Tankers, Ltd.; Sun Maritime S.A.;Adger Tankers AS; Leeward Tankers, Inc.; Manhattan Tankers, Ltd.; and Liuʼs Tankers, S.A. The companyʼs current market niche is the commercial management of chemical tankers serving the transatlantic market with a focus on the east and gulf coast of the United States and Northern Europe. This three-part case describes the commercial shipping industry as well as several mishaps that the company and its President, Chris Haas, have had to deal with including withdrawal of financial support by creditors, intercorporate firm conflict, and employee retention. Part A presents an overview of the commercial vessel industry and sets the stage for Parts B and C (to be published in the Spring 2011 issue) where the firmʼs operation is discussed.