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Book part
Publication date: 31 January 2015

Davy Janssens and Geert Wets

Several activity-based transportation models are now becoming operational and are entering the stage of application for the modelling of travel demand. In our application…

Abstract

Several activity-based transportation models are now becoming operational and are entering the stage of application for the modelling of travel demand. In our application, we will use decision rules to support the decision-making of the model instead of principles of utility maximization, which means our work can be interpreted as an application of the concept of bounded rationality in the transportation domain. In this chapter we explored a novel idea of combining decision trees and Bayesian networks to improve decision-making in order to maintain the potential advantages of both techniques. The results of this study suggest that integrated Bayesian networks and decision trees can be used for modelling the different choice facets of a travel demand model with better predictive power than CHAID decision trees. Another conclusion is that there are initial indications that the new way of integrating decision trees and Bayesian networks has produced a decision tree that is structurally more stable.

Details

Bounded Rational Choice Behaviour: Applications in Transport
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78441-071-1

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Article
Publication date: 9 March 2020

Chaoyu Zheng, Benhong Peng and Guo Wei

The operational management of cold chain logistics has an important impact on the quality of cold chain products, but the service delivery process is subject to a series…

Abstract

Purpose

The operational management of cold chain logistics has an important impact on the quality of cold chain products, but the service delivery process is subject to a series of potential problems such as product loss and cold storage temperature in the actual operation.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, the whole cold chain logistics system and risk events are analyzed. A Bayesian network is used for modeling and simulation to identify the main influencing factors and to conduct a sensitivity analysis of the main factors.

Findings

It is found that the operation of cold chain logistics systems can be divided into four links according to the degree of influence as follows: transportation and distribution, processing and packaging, information processing and warehousing. Transportation and distribution is the most influential factor of system failure, and extreme weather is the most risky event. At the same time, the four risk events that have the greatest impact on the operation of the cold chain system are in descending order: transportation equipment failure, extreme weather, unqualified pre-cooling and violation operation.

Originality/value

Therefore, enterprises should develop appropriate interventions for securing the transportation services, design strategies to deal with extreme weather conditions prior to and in the early stage of product delivery, and prepare additional effective measures for managing emergency events.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

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Article
Publication date: 22 June 2012

Youngim Bae and Hyunjoon Chang

This study aims to identify factors that determine the smart TV buying decisions of users and analyze the relationships among the factors by using Bayesian network approach.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to identify factors that determine the smart TV buying decisions of users and analyze the relationships among the factors by using Bayesian network approach.

Design/methodology/approach

This study investigates smart TV users' perception based on innovation diffusion theory (IDT) which includes five innovation attributes: relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, trialability, and observability. The authors employ Bayesian network to identify causal relationship among the innovation attributes and analyze the sensitivity of the intentions to changes in factors.

Findings

The results show that relative advantage has the greatest influence on the purchase intention of smart TV, followed by compatibility, entertainment, web‐browsing and n‐screen.

Research limitations/implications

The reliability of the results is limited as the survey is not carried out on a large number of samples. The study, however, suggests a future direction for smart TV in consumers' point of view.

Practical implications

According to the findings, companies should focus on enhancing relative advantage, rather than other attributes and entertainment service, to encourage the adoption of smart TV.

Originality/value

Smart TV is an evolving technology in the phase of market introduction. The definition and characteristics of smart TV are still uncertain. The previous literatures, however, were focused on the contents of smart TV and service, restructuring of broadcasting industry, and changes in the competitive landscape. The consumers have not been discussed in detail yet. This paper's contributions are twofold: first, it identifies important attributes for the adoption of smart TV in consumers' intention; second, it suggests a new methodology of Bayesian network in determining consumer buying factors.

Details

Industrial Management & Data Systems, vol. 112 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-5577

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Article
Publication date: 9 March 2012

Archie Lockamy and Kevin McCormack

To counteract the effects of global competition, many organizations have extended their enterprises by forming supply chain networks. However, as organizations increase…

Abstract

Purpose

To counteract the effects of global competition, many organizations have extended their enterprises by forming supply chain networks. However, as organizations increase their dependence on these networks, they become more vulnerable to their suppliers' risk profiles. The purpose of this paper is to present a methodology for modeling and evaluating risk profiles in supply chains via Bayesian networks.

Design/methodology/approach

Empirical data from 15 casting suppliers to a major US automotive company are analyzed using Bayesian networks. The networks provide a methodological approach for determining a supplier's external, operational, and network risk probability, and the potential revenue impact a supplier can have on the company.

Findings

Bayesian networks can be used to develop supplier risk profiles to determine the risk exposure of a company's revenue stream. The supplier risk profiles can be used to determine those risk events which have the largest potential impact on an organization's revenues, and the highest probability of occurrence.

Research limitations/implications

A limitation to the use of Bayesian networks to model supply chain risks is the proper identification of risk events and risk categories that can impact a supply chain.

Practical implications

The methodology used in this study can be adopted by managers to formulate supply chain risk management strategies and tactics which mitigate overall supply chain risks.

Social implications

The methodology used in this study can be used by organizations to reduce supply chain risks which yield numerous societal benefits.

Originality/value

As part of a comprehensive supplier risk management program, organizations along with their suppliers can develop targeted approaches to minimize the occurrence of supply chain risk events.

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Article
Publication date: 3 April 2009

Shunshan Piao, Jeongmin Park and Eunseok Lee

This paper seeks to develop an approach to problem localization and an algorithm to address the issue of determining the dependencies among system metrics for automated…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper seeks to develop an approach to problem localization and an algorithm to address the issue of determining the dependencies among system metrics for automated system management in ubiquitous computing systems.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper proposes an approach to problem localization for learning the knowledge of dynamic environment using probabilistic dependency analysis to automatically determine problems. This approach is based on Bayesian learning to describe a system as a hierarchical dependency network, determining root causes of problems via inductive and deductive inferences on the network. An algorithm of preprocessing is performed to create ordering parameters that have close relationships with problems.

Findings

The findings show that using ordering parameters as input of network learning, it reduces learning time and maintains accuracy in diverse domains especially in the case of including large number of parameters, hence improving efficiency and accuracy of problem localization.

Practical implications

An evaluation of the work is presented through performance measurements. Various comparisons and evaluations prove that the proposed approach is effective on problem localization and it can achieve significant cost savings.

Originality/value

This study contributes to research into the application of probabilistic dependency analysis in localizing the root cause of problems and predicting potential problems at run time after probabilities propagation throughout a network, particularly in relation to fault management in self‐managing systems.

Details

Internet Research, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1066-2243

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Article
Publication date: 31 May 2011

Archie Lockamy

The purpose of this paper is to provide a methodology for benchmarking supplier risks through the creation of Bayesian networks. The networks are used to determine a…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to provide a methodology for benchmarking supplier risks through the creation of Bayesian networks. The networks are used to determine a supplier's external, operational, and network risk probability to assess its potential impact on the buyer organization.

Design/methodology/approach

The research methodology includes the use of a risk assessment model, surveys, data collection from internal and external sources, and the creation of Bayesian networks used to create risk profiles for the study participants.

Findings

It is found that Bayesian networks can be used as an effective benchmarking tool to assist managers in making decisions regarding current and prospective suppliers based upon their potential impact on the buyer organization, as illustrated through their associated risk profiles.

Research limitations/implications

A potential limitation to the use of the methodology presented in the study is the ability to acquire the necessary data from current and potential suppliers needed to construct the Bayesian networks.

Practical implications

The methodology presented in this paper can be used by buyer organizations to benchmark supplier risks in supply chain networks, which may lead to adjustments to existing risk management strategies, policies, and tactics.

Originality/value

This paper provides practitioners with an additional tool for benchmarking supplier risks. Additionally, it provides the foundation for future research studies in the use of Bayesian networks for the examination of supplier risks.

Details

Benchmarking: An International Journal, vol. 18 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-5771

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Article
Publication date: 4 February 2019

Archie Lockamy III

The global electronic equipment industry has evolved into one of the most innovative technology-based business sectors to transpire in the last three decades. Much of its…

Abstract

Purpose

The global electronic equipment industry has evolved into one of the most innovative technology-based business sectors to transpire in the last three decades. Much of its success has been attributed to effective supply chain management. The purpose of this paper is to provide an examination of external risk factors associated with the industry’s key suppliers through the creation of Bayesian networks which can be used to benchmark external risks among these suppliers.

Design/methodology/approach

The study sample consists of the suppliers to seven of the leading global electronic equipment companies. Bayesian networks are used as a methodology for examining the supplier external risk profiles of the study sample.

Findings

The results of this study show that Bayesian networks can be effectively used to assist managers in making decisions regarding current and prospective suppliers with respect to their potential impact on supply chains as illustrated through their corresponding external risk profiles.

Research limitations/implications

A limitation to the use of Bayesian networks for modeling external risk profiles is the proper identification of risk events and risk categories that can impact a supply chain.

Practical implications

The methodology used in this study can be adopted by managers to assist them in making decisions regarding current or prospective suppliers vis-à-vis their corresponding external risk profiles.

Originality/value

As part of a comprehensive supplier risk management program, companies along with their suppliers can develop specific strategies and tactics to minimize the effects of supply chain external risk events.

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Article
Publication date: 3 June 2014

Archie Lockamy III

As organizations increase their dependence on supply chain networks, they become more susceptible to their suppliers’ disaster risk profiles, as well as other categories…

Abstract

Purpose

As organizations increase their dependence on supply chain networks, they become more susceptible to their suppliers’ disaster risk profiles, as well as other categories of risk associated with supply chains. Therefore, it is imperative that supply chain network participants are capable of assessing the disaster risks associated with their supplier base. The purpose of this paper is to assess the supplier disaster risks, which are a key element of external risk in supply chains.

Design/methodology/approach

The study participants are 15 automotive casting suppliers who display a significant degree of disaster risks to a major US automotive company. Bayesian networks are used as a methodology for examining the supplier disaster risk profiles for these participants.

Findings

The results of this study show that Bayesian networks can be effectively used to assist managers in making decisions regarding current and prospective suppliers vis-à-vis their potential revenue impact as illustrated through their corresponding disaster risk profiles.

Research limitations/implications

A limitation to the use of Bayesian networks for modeling disaster risk profiles is the proper identification of risk events and risk categories that can impact a supply chain.

Practical implications

The methodology used in this study can be adopted by managers to assist them in making decisions regarding current or prospective suppliers vis-à-vis their corresponding disaster risk profiles.

Originality/value

As part of a comprehensive supplier risk management program, organizations along with their suppliers can develop specific strategies and tactics to minimize the effects of supply chain disaster risk events.

Details

Industrial Management & Data Systems, vol. 114 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-5577

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Book part
Publication date: 19 November 2014

Daniel Felix Ahelegbey and Paolo Giudici

The latest financial crisis has stressed the need of understanding the world financial system as a network of interconnected institutions, where financial linkages play a…

Abstract

The latest financial crisis has stressed the need of understanding the world financial system as a network of interconnected institutions, where financial linkages play a fundamental role in the spread of systemic risks. In this paper we propose to enrich the topological perspective of network models with a more structured statistical framework, that of Bayesian Gaussian graphical models. From a statistical viewpoint, we propose a new class of hierarchical Bayesian graphical models that can split correlations between institutions into country specific and idiosyncratic ones, in a way that parallels the decomposition of returns in the well-known Capital Asset Pricing Model. From a financial economics viewpoint, we suggest a way to model systemic risk that can explicitly take into account frictions between different financial markets, particularly suited to study the ongoing banking union process in Europe. From a computational viewpoint, we develop a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm based on Bayes factor thresholding.

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Article
Publication date: 8 June 2010

Pablo A.D. Castro and Fernando J. Von Zuben

The purpose of this paper is to apply a multi‐objective Bayesian artificial immune system (MOBAIS) to feature selection in classification problems aiming at minimizing…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to apply a multi‐objective Bayesian artificial immune system (MOBAIS) to feature selection in classification problems aiming at minimizing both the classification error and cardinality of the subset of features. The algorithm is able to perform a multimodal search maintaining population diversity and controlling automatically the population size according to the problem. In addition, it is capable of identifying and preserving building blocks (partial components of the whole solution) effectively.

Design/methodology/approach

The algorithm evolves candidate subsets of features by replacing the traditional mutation operator in immune‐inspired algorithms with a probabilistic model which represents the probability distribution of the promising solutions found so far. Then, the probabilistic model is used to generate new individuals. A Bayesian network is adopted as the probabilistic model due to its capability of capturing expressive interactions among the variables of the problem. In order to evaluate the proposal, it was applied to ten datasets and the results compared with those generated by state‐of‐the‐art algorithms.

Findings

The experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the multi‐objective approach to feature selection. The algorithm found parsimonious subsets of features and the classifiers produced a significant improvement in the accuracy. In addition, the maintenance of building blocks avoids the disruption of partial solutions, leading to a quick convergence.

Originality/value

The originality of this paper relies on the proposal of a novel algorithm to multi‐objective feature selection.

Details

International Journal of Intelligent Computing and Cybernetics, vol. 3 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-378X

Keywords

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