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Several activity-based transportation models are now becoming operational and are entering the stage of application for the modelling of travel demand. In our application, we will use decision rules to support the decision-making of the model instead of principles of utility maximization, which means our work can be interpreted as an application of the concept of bounded rationality in the transportation domain. In this chapter we explored a novel idea of combining decision trees and Bayesian networks to improve decision-making in order to maintain the potential advantages of both techniques. The results of this study suggest that integrated Bayesian networks and decision trees can be used for modelling the different choice facets of a travel demand model with better predictive power than CHAID decision trees. Another conclusion is that there are initial indications that the new way of integrating decision trees and Bayesian networks has produced a decision tree that is structurally more stable.

The operational management of cold chain logistics has an important impact on the quality of cold chain products, but the service delivery process is subject to a series of potential problems such as product loss and cold storage temperature in the actual operation.

In this paper, the whole cold chain logistics system and risk events are analyzed. A Bayesian network is used for modeling and simulation to identify the main influencing factors and to conduct a sensitivity analysis of the main factors.

It is found that the operation of cold chain logistics systems can be divided into four links according to the degree of influence as follows: transportation and distribution, processing and packaging, information processing and warehousing. Transportation and distribution is the most influential factor of system failure, and extreme weather is the most risky event. At the same time, the four risk events that have the greatest impact on the operation of the cold chain system are in descending order: transportation equipment failure, extreme weather, unqualified pre-cooling and violation operation.

Therefore, enterprises should develop appropriate interventions for securing the transportation services, design strategies to deal with extreme weather conditions prior to and in the early stage of product delivery, and prepare additional effective measures for managing emergency events.

This study aims to identify factors that determine the smart TV buying decisions of users and analyze the relationships among the factors by using Bayesian network approach.

This study investigates smart TV users' perception based on innovation diffusion theory (IDT) which includes five innovation attributes: relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, trialability, and observability. The authors employ Bayesian network to identify causal relationship among the innovation attributes and analyze the sensitivity of the intentions to changes in factors.

The results show that relative advantage has the greatest influence on the purchase intention of smart TV, followed by compatibility, entertainment, web‐browsing and n‐screen.

The reliability of the results is limited as the survey is not carried out on a large number of samples. The study, however, suggests a future direction for smart TV in consumers' point of view.

According to the findings, companies should focus on enhancing relative advantage, rather than other attributes and entertainment service, to encourage the adoption of smart TV.

Smart TV is an evolving technology in the phase of market introduction. The definition and characteristics of smart TV are still uncertain. The previous literatures, however, were focused on the contents of smart TV and service, restructuring of broadcasting industry, and changes in the competitive landscape. The consumers have not been discussed in detail yet. This paper's contributions are twofold: first, it identifies important attributes for the adoption of smart TV in consumers' intention; second, it suggests a new methodology of Bayesian network in determining consumer buying factors.

To counteract the effects of global competition, many organizations have extended their enterprises by forming supply chain networks. However, as organizations increase their dependence on these networks, they become more vulnerable to their suppliers' risk profiles. The purpose of this paper is to present a methodology for modeling and evaluating risk profiles in supply chains via Bayesian networks.

Empirical data from 15 casting suppliers to a major US automotive company are analyzed using Bayesian networks. The networks provide a methodological approach for determining a supplier's external, operational, and network risk probability, and the potential revenue impact a supplier can have on the company.

Bayesian networks can be used to develop supplier risk profiles to determine the risk exposure of a company's revenue stream. The supplier risk profiles can be used to determine those risk events which have the largest potential impact on an organization's revenues, and the highest probability of occurrence.

A limitation to the use of Bayesian networks to model supply chain risks is the proper identification of risk events and risk categories that can impact a supply chain.

The methodology used in this study can be adopted by managers to formulate supply chain risk management strategies and tactics which mitigate overall supply chain risks.

The methodology used in this study can be used by organizations to reduce supply chain risks which yield numerous societal benefits.

As part of a comprehensive supplier risk management program, organizations along with their suppliers can develop targeted approaches to minimize the occurrence of supply chain risk events.

Existing studies suggested that there is a nonlinear relationship between lean production adoption and organizational performance. Lean production adoption is a gradual process, and the application status of lean tools will affect enterprise performance. The existing literature has insufficiently explored the nonlinear relationship of the lean tools application status on operational performance and environmental performance using the same theoretical framework. A combination approach of interpretative structural modeling (ISM) and Bayesian networks was proposed in this paper, which was used to analyze the complex relationship between lean tools application status with operational and environmental performance.

ISM was used to analyze the inter-relationship of 17 lean tools identified from the lean literature and construct the lean tools structure model providing reference for building Bayesian network. By calculating the prior and conditional probabilities within the lean tools and between the lean tools with the operational and environmental performance, a Bayesian simulation model was constructed and used to analyze the performance outcomes under different lean tools application status.

The performance simulation result – representing by the probability of three performance levels as good, average and poor – shows inconsistent changes with the changing of lean tools application status. By comparing the changes of operational performance and environmental performance, it can be found that environmental performance is less sensitive to the change of lean tools application status than operational performance.

Using the integrated ISM–Bayesian network approach, the results indicated a nonlinear relationship between lean tools with operational and environmental performance and provided a reference for the exploration of the nonlinear relationship between lean tools and performance. This research further calls for exploring the S-curve relationship between lean tools and environmental performance.

This paper seeks to develop an approach to problem localization and an algorithm to address the issue of determining the dependencies among system metrics for automated system management in ubiquitous computing systems.

This paper proposes an approach to problem localization for learning the knowledge of dynamic environment using probabilistic dependency analysis to automatically determine problems. This approach is based on Bayesian learning to describe a system as a hierarchical dependency network, determining root causes of problems via inductive and deductive inferences on the network. An algorithm of preprocessing is performed to create ordering parameters that have close relationships with problems.

The findings show that using ordering parameters as input of network learning, it reduces learning time and maintains accuracy in diverse domains especially in the case of including large number of parameters, hence improving efficiency and accuracy of problem localization.

An evaluation of the work is presented through performance measurements. Various comparisons and evaluations prove that the proposed approach is effective on problem localization and it can achieve significant cost savings.

This study contributes to research into the application of probabilistic dependency analysis in localizing the root cause of problems and predicting potential problems at run time after probabilities propagation throughout a network, particularly in relation to fault management in self‐managing systems.

The purpose of this paper is to provide a methodology for benchmarking supplier risks through the creation of Bayesian networks. The networks are used to determine a supplier's external, operational, and network risk probability to assess its potential impact on the buyer organization.

The research methodology includes the use of a risk assessment model, surveys, data collection from internal and external sources, and the creation of Bayesian networks used to create risk profiles for the study participants.

It is found that Bayesian networks can be used as an effective benchmarking tool to assist managers in making decisions regarding current and prospective suppliers based upon their potential impact on the buyer organization, as illustrated through their associated risk profiles.

A potential limitation to the use of the methodology presented in the study is the ability to acquire the necessary data from current and potential suppliers needed to construct the Bayesian networks.

The methodology presented in this paper can be used by buyer organizations to benchmark supplier risks in supply chain networks, which may lead to adjustments to existing risk management strategies, policies, and tactics.

This paper provides practitioners with an additional tool for benchmarking supplier risks. Additionally, it provides the foundation for future research studies in the use of Bayesian networks for the examination of supplier risks.

The global electronic equipment industry has evolved into one of the most innovative technology-based business sectors to transpire in the last three decades. Much of its success has been attributed to effective supply chain management. The purpose of this paper is to provide an examination of external risk factors associated with the industry’s key suppliers through the creation of Bayesian networks which can be used to benchmark external risks among these suppliers.

The study sample consists of the suppliers to seven of the leading global electronic equipment companies. Bayesian networks are used as a methodology for examining the supplier external risk profiles of the study sample.

The results of this study show that Bayesian networks can be effectively used to assist managers in making decisions regarding current and prospective suppliers with respect to their potential impact on supply chains as illustrated through their corresponding external risk profiles.

A limitation to the use of Bayesian networks for modeling external risk profiles is the proper identification of risk events and risk categories that can impact a supply chain.

The methodology used in this study can be adopted by managers to assist them in making decisions regarding current or prospective suppliers vis-à-vis their corresponding external risk profiles.

As part of a comprehensive supplier risk management program, companies along with their suppliers can develop specific strategies and tactics to minimize the effects of supply chain external risk events.

Bayesian approaches have been widely applied in construction management (CM) research due to their capacity to deal with uncertain and complicated problems. However, to date, there has been no systematic review of applications of Bayesian approaches in existing CM studies. This paper systematically reviews applications of Bayesian approaches in CM research and provides insights into potential benefits of this technique for driving innovation and productivity in the construction industry.

A total of 148 articles were retrieved for systematic review through two literature selection rounds.

Bayesian approaches have been widely applied to safety management and risk management. The Bayesian network (BN) was the most frequently employed Bayesian method. Elicitation from expert knowledge and case studies were the primary methods for BN development and validation, respectively. Prediction was the most popular type of reasoning with BNs. Research limitations in existing studies mainly related to not fully realizing the potential of Bayesian approaches in CM functional areas, over-reliance on expert knowledge for BN model development and lacking guides on BN model validation, together with pertinent recommendations for future research.

This systematic review contributes to providing a comprehensive understanding of the application of Bayesian approaches in CM research and highlights implications for future research and practice.

As organizations increase their dependence on supply chain networks, they become more susceptible to their suppliers’ disaster risk profiles, as well as other categories of risk associated with supply chains. Therefore, it is imperative that supply chain network participants are capable of assessing the disaster risks associated with their supplier base. The purpose of this paper is to assess the supplier disaster risks, which are a key element of external risk in supply chains.

The study participants are 15 automotive casting suppliers who display a significant degree of disaster risks to a major US automotive company. Bayesian networks are used as a methodology for examining the supplier disaster risk profiles for these participants.

The results of this study show that Bayesian networks can be effectively used to assist managers in making decisions regarding current and prospective suppliers vis-à-vis their potential revenue impact as illustrated through their corresponding disaster risk profiles.

A limitation to the use of Bayesian networks for modeling disaster risk profiles is the proper identification of risk events and risk categories that can impact a supply chain.

The methodology used in this study can be adopted by managers to assist them in making decisions regarding current or prospective suppliers vis-à-vis their corresponding disaster risk profiles.

As part of a comprehensive supplier risk management program, organizations along with their suppliers can develop specific strategies and tactics to minimize the effects of supply chain disaster risk events.