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Purpose – This chapter reports on a rapidly growing trend in the analysis of data about emerging market (EM) economies – the use of baseline models as comparisons for explanatory models. Baseline models estimate expected values for the dependent variable in the absence of a hypothesized causal effect but set higher standards than do traditional null hypotheses tests that expect no effect.

Design/methodology/approach – Although the use of baseline models research originated in the 1960s, it has not been widely discussed, or even acknowledged, in the EM literature. We surveyed published EM studies to determine trends in the use of baseline models.

Findings – We categorize and describe the different types of baseline models that scholars have used in EM studies, and draw inferences about the differences between more effective and less effective uses of baseline models.

Value – We believe that comparisons with baseline models offer distinct methodological advantages for the iterative development of better explanatory models and a deeper understanding of empirical phenomena.

This chapter reports on a rapidly growing trend in data analysis – analytic comparisons between baseline models and explanatory models. Baseline models estimate values for the dependent variable in the absence of hypothesized causal effects. Thus, the baseline models discussed in this chapter differ from the baseline models commonly used in sequential regression analyses.Baseline modelling entails iteration: (1) Researchers develop baseline models to capture key patterns in the empirical data that are independent of the hypothesized effects. (2) They compare these patterns with the patterns implied by their explanatory models. (3) They use the derived insights to improve their explanatory models. (4) They iterate by comparing their improved explanatory models with modified baseline models.The chapter draws on methodological literature in economics, applied psychology, and the philosophy of science to point out fundamental features of baseline modelling. Examples come from research in international business and management, emerging market economies and developing countries.Baseline modelling offers substantial advantages for theory development. Although analytic comparisons with baseline models originated in some research fields as early as the 1960s, they have not been widely discussed or applied in international management. Baseline modelling takes a more inductive and iterative approach to modelling and theory development. Because baseline modelling holds substantial potential, international-management scholars should explore its opportunities for advancing scientific progress.

The inclusion of heritage dwellings in the UK decarbonization policies can contribute to cut operational carbon emissions from the building stock; this needs to be made a priority if net zero carbon targets are to be achieved. However, the energy and carbon savings potential of suitable retrofit interventions on this part of the stock is extremely variable and strictly intertwined with the range of baseline conditions of such dwellings. This study aims to propose a framework for interventions in traditional listed dwellings (TLDs) to improve their energy performance utilizing dynamic energy simulation (DES) of selected case studies (CSs) in the city of Brighton and Hove (South-East England).

To achieve this aim, the study established a baseline scenario which provides a basis for the assessment of energy performance and thermo-hygrometric behaviour pre- and post-interventions and allows for comparison between different CSs under comparable conditions.

Presenting a brief overview of the methodology adopted in this study, the paper describes the approach devised to generate such baseline scenario. The paper then compares the results obtained from simulation of normalized and baseline models with the status-quo energy consumption of the dwellings investigated (based on meter readings).

This analysis finally allows to highlight some key physical determinants of the baseline HEC which, in the following stage of research, proved to have a considerable effect also on the amount of energy and carbon savings achievable post retrofit interventions.

Using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) matched to administrative records, we examine mortality risk and participation in the Disability Insurance (DI) and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) disability programs from a long-term perspective. Over a period of 14 years, we analyze the effect of self-reported health and disability on the probability of death and disability program entry among individuals aged 18–48 in 1984. We also assess DI and SSI programs from a life-cycle perspective. Self-reported poor health and severe disability at baseline are strongly correlated with death over the 14-year follow-up period. These variables also are strong predictors of disability program participation over the follow-up period among non-participants at baseline or before, with increasing marginal probabilities in the out-years. Our cross-sectional models are consistent with recent studies that find that the work-prevented measure is useful in modeling DI entry. However, once self-reported health and functional limitations are accounted for, the longitudinal entry models provide conflicting DI results for the work-prevented measure, suggesting that, contrary to claims based on cross-sectional or short-time horizon application models, the work-prevented measure is an unreliable indicator of severity. The risk of SSI and DI participation is significantly greater for individuals who die, suggesting that future mortality captures the effect of case severity and deterioration of health during the follow-up period. From a life-cycle perspective, a substantially greater proportion of individuals participate in SSI or DI at some point in their lives compared to typical cross-sectional estimates of participation, especially among minorities, people with less than a high school education, and those with early onset of poor health and/or disabilities. Cross-sectional estimates for the Social Security area population indicate SSI and DI participation rates of no more than 5% combined in 2000. In contrast, for individuals aged 43–48 in 1984, we observe a cumulative lifetime SSI and/or DI participation rate of 14%. The corresponding figure is 32% for individuals in that age group who did not graduate from high school, suggesting the need for human capital investments and/or improved work incentives.

This paper aims to design an optimal shape for an annular S-duct, considering both energy losses and exit flow uniformity, starting from a given baseline design. Moreover, this paper seeks to identify the design factors that affect the optimal annular S-duct designs.

The author has carried out computational fluid dynamic (CFD)-based shape optimization relative to five distinct numerical objectives, to understand their interrelations in optimal designs. Starting from a given baseline S-duct design, they have applied control node-induced shape deformations and high-order polynomial response surfaces for modeling the functional relationships between the shape variables and the numerical objectives. A statistical correlation analysis is carried out across the optimal designs.

The author has shown by single-objective optimization that the two typical goals in S-duct design, energy loss minimization and exit flow uniformity, are mutually contradictory. He has presented a multi-objective solution for an optimal shape, reducing the total pressure loss by 15.6 per cent and the normalized absolute radial exit velocity by 34.2 per cent relative to a baseline design. For each of the five numerical objectives, the best optimization results are obtained by using high-order polynomial models.

The methodology is applicable to axisymmetric two-dimensional geometry models.

This paper applies a recently introduced shape optimization methodology to annular S-ducts, and, it is, to the author’s knowledge, the first paper to point out that the two widely studied design objectives for annular S-ducts are contradictory. This paper also addresses the value of using high-order polynomial response surface models in CFD-based shape optimization.

By far, the corpus for the quotation extraction and quotation attribution tasks in Indonesian is still limited in quantity and depth. This study aims to develop an Indonesian corpus of public figure statements attributions and a baseline model for attribution extraction, so it will contribute to fostering research in information extraction for the Indonesian language.

The methodology is divided into corpus development and extraction model development. During corpus development, data were collected and annotated. The development of the extraction model entails feature extraction, the definition of the model architecture, parameter selection and configuration, model training and evaluation, as well as model selection.

The Indonesian corpus of public figure statements attribution achieved 90.06% agreement level between the annotator and experts and could serve as a gold standard corpus. Furthermore, the baseline model predicted most labels and achieved 82.026% F-score.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the resulting corpus is the first corpus for attribution of public figures’ statements in the Indonesian language, which makes it a significant step for research on attribution extraction in the language. The resulting corpus and the baseline model can be used as a benchmark for further research. Other researchers could follow the methods presented in this paper to develop a new corpus and baseline model for other languages.

This paper discussed quantifying architect, engineer and contractor (AEC) professionals' cross-work culture productivity by comparing between Malaysian and United Kingdom (UK) projects during industrialized building project delivery. This study addressed the second part of a mixed method research design study.

This study hypothesized that with understanding of cultural work knowledge between professionals during design phase coupled with competent technological support, productivity can be improved. It utilized Cognitive Organizational Theory (COT) protocols to test conceptual models in SimVision®. Organizational structure, project intensity, and statistical validations parameters were performed to obtain the reliability and generalization of the result.

This study found that with Building Information Modeling (BIM) technology intervention, the handling of exception, coordination and decision-making time could be improved, resulting in better project performances. The result also indicated that in choosing organizational fit, national culture factor needed to be considered; otherwise, organizational change would be unacceptable. By changing the operational process from intensive to reciprocal task intensity with BIM technology intervention, the effect on productivity would be similar to changing hierarchical organizational structure to flatter organizational structure.

Project discrepancies issues are limitedly discussed due to companies' confidentiality. The paper only focuses on understanding the effects of human factors during the integrated project delivery phase.

The findings could support developing countries' professionals to collaborate effectively with developed countries' professionals.

The development of the project's cultural knowledge experimentations will provide guidance to teams involved in international projects from developed and developing countries in pursuing joint ventures in project deliveries in either country successfully.

This chapter estimates a regime switching Taylor Rule for the European Central Bank (ECB) in order to investigate some potential nonlinearities in the forward-looking policy reaction function within a real-time framework. In order to compare observed and predicted policy behavior, the chapter estimates Actual and Perceived regime switching Taylor Rules for the ECB. The former is based on the refi rate set by the Governing Council while the latter relies on the professional point forecasts of the refi rate performed by a large investment bank before the upcoming policy rate decision. The empirical evidence shows that the Central Bank’s main policy rate has switched between two regimes: in the first one the Taylor Principle is satisfied and the ECB stabilizes the economic outlook, while in the second regime the Central Bank cuts rates more aggressively and puts a higher emphasis on stabilizing real output growth expectations. Second, the results point out that the professional forecasters have broadly well predicted the actual policy regimes. The estimation results are also robust to using consensus forecasts of inflation and real output growth. The empirical evidence from the augmented Taylor Rules shows that the Central Bank has most likely not responded to the growth rates of M3 and the nominal effective exchange rate and the estimated regimes are robust to including these additional variables in the regressions. Finally, after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers the policy rate has switched to a crisis regime as the ECB has focused on preventing a further decline in economic activity and on securing the stability of the financial system.

This paper aims to quantify the potentials for the development of combined heat and power (CHP) in Europe.

To this end, it uses the TIMES-EU energy-economic model and assesses the impact of key policy options and targets in the area of CO₂ emissions reduction, renewable energies and energy efficiency improvements. The results are also compared with the cogeneration potentials as reported by the Member States in their national reports.

The paper shows that CHP output could be more than doubled and that important CHP penetration potential exists in expanding the European district heating systems. This result is even more pronounced with the far-reaching CO₂ emissions reduction necessary in order to meet a long-term 2 degree target. Nevertheless, the paper also shows that strong CO₂ emission reductions in the energy sector might limit the CHP potential due to increased competition for biomass with the transport sector.

Given the proven socio-economic benefits of using CHP, the paper identifies the areas for future research in order to better exploit the potential of this technology such as the combination of CHP and district cooling or country- and industry-specific options to generate process heat.

Climate change and its imminent threat to human survival adversely impact the agriculture sector. In an impoverished country like The Gambia, economic costs of climate change are colossal. This study aims to establish a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for The Gambia’s agriculture sector to examine the effects of climate change on crops, livestock and sea-level rise.

This study used a CGE model with other climate change impact models to compute the impacts of climate change on The Gambia’s agriculture sector. The social accounting matrix calibrates the results from the various models, thereby generating the baseline results which exemplify a “steady-state” and policy shock results illustrating the medium- and long-term effects of climate change on the country’s agriculture sector.

The baseline results indicate the status quo showing the neglect of the agriculture sector due to limited investment in the sector. Hence, the sector is the “hardest hit” sector as a result of climate change. When the model factored in climate change in the medium term (2055) and long term (2085), the macroeconomic indicators of gross domestic product, national savings, wages, disposable income and consumer price index deteriorated, elucidating the vulnerability of the economy to climate change. The consumption of groundnuts, cattle and fish will decline by 5%, 5% and 4%, respectively, in the long term. However, the production of all agricultural commodities will decline by an average of 35% for the same period. The results for international trade show that exportation would decline while importation will increase over time. The general price level for agricultural commodities would increase by 3% in 2055 and 5% in 2085. Generally, the results manifest the severity of climate change in the agriculture sector which will have a multiplier effect on the economy. The impact of climate change would result in agriculture and economic decline causing hunger, poverty and human misery.

The caveat of this study revealed the nuances not captured by previous Gambian climate change studies, thus the novelty of the study.