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Article
Publication date: 20 November 2020

Lydie Myriam Marcelle Amelot, Ushad Subadar Agathee and Yuvraj Sunecher

This study constructs time series model, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and statistical topologies to examine the volatility and forecast foreign exchange rates. The…

Abstract

Purpose

This study constructs time series model, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and statistical topologies to examine the volatility and forecast foreign exchange rates. The Mauritian forex market has been utilized as a case study, and daily data for nominal spot rate (during a time period of five years spanning from 2014 to 2018) for EUR/MUR, GBP/MUR, CAD/MUR and AUD/MUR have been applied for the predictions.

Design/methodology/approach

Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models are used as a basis for time series modelling for the analysis, along with the non-linear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) neural network backpropagation algorithm utilizing different training functions, namely, Levenberg–Marquardt (LM), Bayesian regularization and scaled conjugate gradient (SCG) algorithms. The study also features a hybrid kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) using the support vector regression (SVR) algorithm as an additional statistical tool to conduct financial market forecasting modelling. Mean squared error (MSE) and root mean square error (RMSE) are employed as indicators for the performance of the models.

Findings

The results demonstrated that the GARCH model performed better in terms of volatility clustering and prediction compared to the ARIMA model. On the other hand, the NARX model indicated that LM and Bayesian regularization training algorithms are the most appropriate method of forecasting the different currency exchange rates as the MSE and RMSE seemed to be the lowest error compared to the other training functions. Meanwhile, the results reported that NARX and KPCA–SVR topologies outperformed the linear time series models due to the theory based on the structural risk minimization principle. Finally, the comparison between the NARX model and KPCA–SVR illustrated that the NARX model outperformed the statistical prediction model. Overall, the study deduced that the NARX topology achieves better prediction performance results compared to time series and statistical parameters.

Research limitations/implications

The foreign exchange market is considered to be instable owing to uncertainties in the economic environment of any country and thus, accurate forecasting of foreign exchange rates is crucial for any foreign exchange activity. The study has an important economic implication as it will help researchers, investors, traders, speculators and financial analysts, users of financial news in banking and financial institutions, money changers, non-banking financial companies and stock exchange institutions in Mauritius to take investment decisions in terms of international portfolios. Moreover, currency rates instability might raise transaction costs and diminish the returns in terms of international trade. Exchange rate volatility raises the need to implement a highly organized risk management measures so as to disclose future trend and movement of the foreign currencies which could act as an essential guidance for foreign exchange participants. By this way, they will be more alert before conducting any forex transactions including hedging, asset pricing or any speculation activity, take corrective actions, thus preventing them from making any potential losses in the future and gain more profit.

Originality/value

This is one of the first studies applying artificial intelligence (AI) while making use of time series modelling, the NARX neural network backpropagation algorithm and hybrid KPCA–SVR to predict forex using multiple currencies in the foreign exchange market in Mauritius.

Details

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, vol. 12 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-0705

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Article
Publication date: 7 August 2017

Geeta Duppati, Anoop S. Kumar, Frank Scrimgeour and Leon Li

The purpose of this paper is to assess to what extent intraday data can explain and predict long-term memory.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to assess to what extent intraday data can explain and predict long-term memory.

Design/methodology/approach

This article analysed the presence of long-memory volatility in five Asian equity indices, namely, SENSEX, CNIA, NIKKEI225, KO11 and FTSTI, using five-min intraday return series from 05 January 2015 to 06 August 2015 using two approaches, i.e. conditional volatility and realized volatility, for forecasting long-term memory. It employs conditional-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), i.e. autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA)-FIGARCH model and ARFIMA-asymmetric power autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (APARCH) models, and unconditional volatility realized volatility using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and ARFIMA in-sample forecasting models to estimate the persistence of the long-term memory.

Findings

Given the GARCH framework, the ARFIMA-APARCH long-memory model gave the better forecast results signifying the importance of accounting for asymmetric information when modelling volatility in a financial market. Using the unconditional realized volatility results from the Singapore and Indian markets, the ARIMA model outperforms the ARFIMA model in terms of forecast performance and provides reasonable forecasts.

Practical implications

The issue of long memory has important implications for the theory and practice of finance. It is well-known that accurate volatility forecasts are important in a variety of settings including option and other derivatives pricing, portfolio and risk management.

Social implications

It could be said that using long-memory augmented models would give better results to investors so that they could analyse the market trends in returns and volatility in a more accurate manner and reach at an informed decision. This is useful to minimize the risks.

Originality/value

This research enhances the literature by estimating the influence of intraday variables on daily volatility. This is one of very few studies that uses conditional GARCH framework models and unconditional realized volatility estimates for forecasting long-term memory. The authors find that the methods complement each other.

Details

Pacific Accounting Review, vol. 29 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0114-0582

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Article
Publication date: 1 December 2006

Mohammad Al‐Shiab

This study examines the univariate ARIMA forecasting model, using the Amman Stock Exchange (ASE) general daily index between 4/1/2004 and 10/8/2004; with out‐of‐sample…

Abstract

This study examines the univariate ARIMA forecasting model, using the Amman Stock Exchange (ASE) general daily index between 4/1/2004 and 10/8/2004; with out‐of‐sample testing undertaken on the following seven days. Different diagnostic tests were performed to find the best model describing the data. The selected model predicted that the ASE would continue to grow by 0.195% for seven days starting on 11/8/2004. This forecast, however, was not consistent with actual performance during the period of the prediction (11/8/2004 ‐ 19/8/2004) since ASE declined by ‐ 0.003% assuring the fact that ASE followed most closely the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) in its weak form.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. 22 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

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Article
Publication date: 9 August 2011

Ali Hepşen and Metin Vatansever

It is important to forecast index series to identify future rises, falls, and turning points in the property market. From the point of this necessity and importance, the…

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1192

Abstract

Purpose

It is important to forecast index series to identify future rises, falls, and turning points in the property market. From the point of this necessity and importance, the main purpose of this paper is to forecast the future trends in Dubai housing market.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses the monthly time series of Reidin.com Dubai Residential Property Price Index (DRPPI) data. In order to forecast the future trends in Dubai housing market, Box‐Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecasting method is utilized.

Findings

The results of the ARIMA modeling clearly indicate that average monthly percentage increase in the Reidin.com DRPPI will be 0.23 percent during the period January 2011‐December 2011. That is a 2.44 percent increase in the index for the same period.

Practical implications

Reidin.com residential property price index is a crucial tool to measure Dubai's real estate market. Based on the current index values or past trend, real estate investors (i.e. developers and constructors) decide to start new projects. Attempts have also been made in the past to forecast index series to identify future rises, falls, and turning points in the property market. The results of this paper would also help government and property investors for creating more effective property management strategies in Dubai.

Originality/value

There is no previous study analyzing the future trends in Dubai housing market. At this point, the paper is the first academic study that identifies this relationship.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 4 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 11 April 2021

Josephine Dufitinema

The purpose of this paper is to compare different models’ performance in modelling and forecasting the Finnish house price returns and volatility.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to compare different models’ performance in modelling and forecasting the Finnish house price returns and volatility.

Design/methodology/approach

The competing models are the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model and autoregressive fractional integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model for house price returns. For house price volatility, the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model is competing with the fractional integrated GARCH (FIGARCH) and component GARCH (CGARCH) models.

Findings

Results reveal that, for modelling Finnish house price returns, the data set under study drives the performance of ARMA or ARFIMA model. The EGARCH model stands as the leading model for Finnish house price volatility modelling. The long memory models (ARFIMA, CGARCH and FIGARCH) provide superior out-of-sample forecasts for house price returns and volatility; they outperform their short memory counterparts in most regions. Additionally, the models’ in-sample fit performances vary from region to region, while in some areas, the models manifest a geographical pattern in their out-of-sample forecasting performances.

Research limitations/implications

The research results have vital implications, namely, portfolio allocation, investment risk assessment and decision-making.

Originality/value

To the best of the author’s knowledge, for Finland, there has yet to be empirical forecasting of either house price returns or/and volatility. Therefore, this study aims to bridge that gap by comparing different models’ performance in modelling, as well as forecasting the house price returns and volatility of the studied market.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 7 July 2020

Mohamed Ali Ismail and Eman Mahmoud Abd El-Metaal

This paper aims to obtain accurate forecasts of the hourly residential natural gas consumption, in Egypt, taken into consideration the volatile multiple seasonal nature of…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to obtain accurate forecasts of the hourly residential natural gas consumption, in Egypt, taken into consideration the volatile multiple seasonal nature of the gas series. This matter helps in both minimizing the cost of energy and maintaining the reliability of the Egyptian power system as well.

Design/methodology/approach

Double seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model is used to obtain accurate forecasts of the hourly Egyptian gas consumption series. This model captures both daily and weekly seasonal patterns apparent in the series as well as the volatility of the series.

Findings

Using the mean absolute percentage error to check the forecasting accuracy of the model, it is proved that the produced outcomes are accurate. Therefore, the proposed model could be recommended for forecasting the Egyptian natural gas consumption.

Originality/value

The contribution of this research lies in the ingenuity of using time series models that accommodate both daily and weekly seasonal patterns, which have not been taken into consideration before, in addition to the series volatility to forecast hourly consumption of natural gas in Egypt.

Details

Journal of Humanities and Applied Social Sciences, vol. 2 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN:

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Article
Publication date: 11 May 2010

Oscar Claveria and Jordi Datzira

There is a lack of studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non‐linear models. The aim of this paper is to introduce consumer expectations in time‐series models in…

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2758

Abstract

Purpose

There is a lack of studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non‐linear models. The aim of this paper is to introduce consumer expectations in time‐series models in order to analyse their usefulness to forecast tourism demand.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper focuses on forecasting tourism demand in Catalonia for the four main visitor markets (France, the UK, Germany and Italy) combining qualitative information with quantitative models: autoregressive (AR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), self‐exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated for different time horizons (one, two, three, six and 12 months).

Findings

Although some differences are found between the results obtained for the different countries, when comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques, ARIMA and Markov switching regime models outperform the rest of the models. In all cases, forecasts of arrivals show lower root mean square errors (RMSE) than forecasts of overnight stays. It is found that models with consumer expectations do not outperform benchmark models. These results are extensive to all time horizons analysed.

Research limitations/implications

This study encourages the use of qualitative information and more advanced econometric techniques in order to improve tourism demand forecasting.

Originality/value

This is the first study on tourism demand focusing specifically on Catalonia. To date, there have been no studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non‐linear models such as self‐exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. This paper fills this gap and analyses forecasting performance at a regional level.

Details

Tourism Review, vol. 65 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1660-5373

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Article
Publication date: 5 May 2015

Cindia Ching-Chi Lam and Clara Weng-Si Lei

– The purpose of this paper is to consider the issue of forecasting hotel room rate with data from 2004 onwards and the forecast horizons of 91 observations.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to consider the issue of forecasting hotel room rate with data from 2004 onwards and the forecast horizons of 91 observations.

Design/methodology/approach

This study employs a set of time series data (91 observations) on average monthly hotel room rates to generate an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models (ARIMA) forecasting model.

Findings

Through the employment of 74 percent observations, with 26 percent withhold for evaluation checking, six best models are identified from 50 models under study. The final model reports a high level of predictive accuracy and provides useful insights for hoteliers to form business strategies.

Originality/value

This research provides a well-defined model to forecast the room rate of three-star hotels in the city. The research findings provide good ground for strategic management of the industry, in which there is an imbalance between demand and supply of hotel accommodations. In addition, being the first of its kind in one of the largest gaming revenue generation city in the world, this research provides valuable information for further research of its kind in the future.

Details

International Journal of Tourism Cities, vol. 1 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2056-5607

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 8 July 2021

Michele Cedolin and Mujde Erol Genevois

The research objective is to increase the computational efficiency of the automated teller machine (ATM) cash demand forecasting problem. It proposes a practical…

Abstract

Purpose

The research objective is to increase the computational efficiency of the automated teller machine (ATM) cash demand forecasting problem. It proposes a practical decision-making process that uses aggregated time series of a bank's ATM network. The purpose is to decrease ATM numbers that will be forecasted by individual models, by finding the machines’ cluster where the forecasting results of the aggregated series are appropriate to use.

Design/methodology/approach

A comparative statistical forecasting approach is proposed in order to reduce the calculation complexity of an ATM network by using the NN5 competition data set. Integrated autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) and its seasonal version SARIMA are fitted to each time series. Then, averaged time series are introduced to simplify the forecasting process carried out for each ATM. The ATMs that are forecastable with the averaged series are identified by calculating the forecasting accuracy change in each machine.

Findings

The proposed approach is evaluated by different error metrics and is compared to the literature findings. The results show that the ATMs that have tolerable accuracy loss may be considered as a cluster and can be forecasted with a single model based on the aggregated series.

Research limitations/implications

The research is based on the public data set. Financial institutions do not prefer to share their ATM transactions data, therefore accessible data are limited.

Practical implications

The proposed practical approach will be beneficial for financial institutions to use, that hold an excessive number of ATMs because it reduces the computational time and resources allocated for the forecasting process.

Originality/value

This study offers an effective simplified methodology to the challenging cash demand forecasting process by introducing an aggregated time series approach.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

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Article
Publication date: 4 September 2020

Mehdi Khashei and Bahareh Mahdavi Sharif

The purpose of this paper is to propose a comprehensive version of a hybrid autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), and artificial neural networks (ANNs) in…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to propose a comprehensive version of a hybrid autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), and artificial neural networks (ANNs) in order to yield a more general and more accurate hybrid model for exchange rates forecasting. For this purpose, the Kalman filter technique is used in the proposed model to preprocess and detect the trend of raw data. It is basically done to reduce the existing noise in the underlying data and better modeling, respectively.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, ARIMA models are applied to construct a new hybrid model to overcome the above-mentioned limitations of ANNs and to yield a more general and more accurate model than traditional hybrid ARIMA and ANNs models. In our proposed model, a time series is considered as a function of a linear and nonlinear component, so, in the first phase, an ARIMA model is first used to identify and magnify the existing linear structures in data. In the second phase, a multilayer perceptron is used as a nonlinear neural network to model the preprocessed data, in which the existing linear structures are identified and magnified by ARIMA and to predict the future value of time series.

Findings

In this paper, a new Kalman filter based hybrid artificial neural network and ARIMA model are proposed as an alternate forecasting technique to the traditional hybrid ARIMA/ANNs models. In the proposed model, similar to the traditional hybrid ARIMA/ANNs models, the unique strengths of ARIMA and ANN in linear and nonlinear modeling are jointly used, aiming to capture different forms of relationship in the data; especially, in complex problems that have both linear and nonlinear correlation structures. However, there are no aforementioned assumptions in the modeling process of the proposed model. Therefore, in the proposed model, in contrast to the traditional hybrid ARIMA/ANNs, it can be generally guaranteed that the performance of the proposed model will not be worse than either of their components used separately. In addition, empirical results in both weekly and daily exchange rate forecasting indicate that the proposed model can be an effective way to improve forecasting accuracy achieved by traditional hybrid ARIMA/ANNs models.

Originality/value

In the proposed model, in contrast to the traditional hybrid ARIMA/ANNs, it can be guaranteed that the performance of the proposed model will not be worse than either of the components used separately. In addition, empirical results in exchange rate forecasting indicate that the proposed model can be an effective way to improve forecasting accuracy achieved by traditional hybrid ARIMA/ANNs models. Therefore, it can be used as an appropriate alternate model for forecasting in exchange ratemarkets, especially when higher forecasting accuracy is needed.

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