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Article
Publication date: 20 July 2021

Taicir Mezghani, Fatma Ben Hamadou and Mouna Boujelbène Abbes

The aim of this study was to investigate the dynamic network connectedness between stock markets and commodity futures and its implications on hedging strategies…

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this study was to investigate the dynamic network connectedness between stock markets and commodity futures and its implications on hedging strategies. Specifically, the authors studied the impact of the 2014 oil price drop and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on risk spillovers and portfolio allocation among stock markets (United States (SP500), China (SSEC), Japan (Nikkei 225), France (CAC40) and Germany (DAX)) and commodities (oil and gold).

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, the authors used the Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner–generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (BEKK–GARCH) model to estimate shock transmission among the five financial markets and the two commodities. The authors rely on Diebold and Yılmaz (2014, 2015) methodology to construct network-associated measures.

Findings

Relying on the BEKK–GARCH, the authors found that the recent health crisis of COVID-19 intensified the volatility spillovers among stock markets and commodities. Using the dynamic network connectedness, the authors showed that at the 2014 oil price drop and the COVID-19 pandemic shock, the Nikkei225 moderated the transmission of volatility to the majority of markets. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the commodity markets are a net receiver of volatility shocks from stock markets. In addition, the SP500 stock market dominates the network connectedness dynamic during the COVID-19 pandemic, while DAX index is the weakest risk transmitter. Regarding the portfolio allocation and hedging strategies, the study showed that the oil market is the most vulnerable and risky as it was heavily affected by the two crises. The results show that gold is a hedging tool during turmoil periods.

Originality/value

This study contributes to knowledge in this area by improving our understanding of the influence of fluctuations in oil prices on the dynamics of the volatility connection between stock markets and commodities during the COVID-19 pandemic shock. The study’s findings provide more implications regarding portfolio management and hedging strategies that could help investors optimize their portfolios.

Details

Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Administration, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-4323

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Article
Publication date: 7 August 2017

Geeta Duppati, Anoop S. Kumar, Frank Scrimgeour and Leon Li

The purpose of this paper is to assess to what extent intraday data can explain and predict long-term memory.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to assess to what extent intraday data can explain and predict long-term memory.

Design/methodology/approach

This article analysed the presence of long-memory volatility in five Asian equity indices, namely, SENSEX, CNIA, NIKKEI225, KO11 and FTSTI, using five-min intraday return series from 05 January 2015 to 06 August 2015 using two approaches, i.e. conditional volatility and realized volatility, for forecasting long-term memory. It employs conditional-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), i.e. autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA)-FIGARCH model and ARFIMA-asymmetric power autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (APARCH) models, and unconditional volatility realized volatility using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and ARFIMA in-sample forecasting models to estimate the persistence of the long-term memory.

Findings

Given the GARCH framework, the ARFIMA-APARCH long-memory model gave the better forecast results signifying the importance of accounting for asymmetric information when modelling volatility in a financial market. Using the unconditional realized volatility results from the Singapore and Indian markets, the ARIMA model outperforms the ARFIMA model in terms of forecast performance and provides reasonable forecasts.

Practical implications

The issue of long memory has important implications for the theory and practice of finance. It is well-known that accurate volatility forecasts are important in a variety of settings including option and other derivatives pricing, portfolio and risk management.

Social implications

It could be said that using long-memory augmented models would give better results to investors so that they could analyse the market trends in returns and volatility in a more accurate manner and reach at an informed decision. This is useful to minimize the risks.

Originality/value

This research enhances the literature by estimating the influence of intraday variables on daily volatility. This is one of very few studies that uses conditional GARCH framework models and unconditional realized volatility estimates for forecasting long-term memory. The authors find that the methods complement each other.

Details

Pacific Accounting Review, vol. 29 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0114-0582

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Article
Publication date: 16 January 2017

Sharif Mozumder, Michael Dempsey and M. Humayun Kabir

The purpose of the paper is to back-test value-at-risk (VaR) models for conditional distributions belonging to a Generalized Hyperbolic (GH) family of Lévy processes …

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the paper is to back-test value-at-risk (VaR) models for conditional distributions belonging to a Generalized Hyperbolic (GH) family of Lévy processes – Variance Gamma, Normal Inverse Gaussian, Hyperbolic distribution and GH – and compare their risk-management features with a traditional unconditional extreme value (EV) approach using data from future contracts return data of S&P500, FTSE100, DAX, HangSeng and Nikkei 225 indices.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors apply tail-based and Lévy-based calibration to estimate the parameters of the models as part of the initial data analysis. While the authors utilize the peaks-over-threshold approach for generalized Pareto distribution, the conditional maximum likelihood method is followed in case of Lévy models. As the Lévy models do not have closed form expressions for VaR, the authors follow a bootstrap method to determine the VaR and the confidence intervals. Finally, for back-testing, they use both static calibration (on the entire data) and dynamic calibration (on a four-year rolling window) to test the unconditional, independence and conditional coverage hypotheses implemented with 95 and 99 per cent VaRs.

Findings

Both EV and Lévy models provide the authors with a conservative proportion of violation for VaR forecasts. A model targeting tail or fitting the entire distribution has little effect on either VaR calculation or a VaR model’s back-testing performance.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to explore the back-testing performance of Lévy-based VaR models. The authors conduct various calibration and bootstrap techniques to test the unconditional, independence and conditional coverage hypotheses for the VaRs.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 18 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 30 November 2010

Pan-Do Sohn, Sung-Shin Kim and Jung-Soon Shin

This paper investigates the asymmetric volatility between conditional volatility and initial margin using daily market return of TOPIX and Nikkei225 over 1970 to 1990. In…

Abstract

This paper investigates the asymmetric volatility between conditional volatility and initial margin using daily market return of TOPIX and Nikkei225 over 1970 to 1990. In prior studies, generally, it has been known that margin is regard as a main discipline to control volatility with respect to a policy tool. Our empirical test provides the following results. First, this paper shows that there is significantly positive relation between return of stock market and margin, implying that as margin increases, also return increases. Thus we conclude that the trade-off of risk and return is found. Second, our result suggests that in normal state, margin affects to conditional volatility negatively and significantly, indicating that margin policy could control the conditional volatility. Third, this paper finds that in recession state, there is little bit evidence of discipline action in controlling volatility. Fourth, our paper also finds that in boom state, there is adversely evidence of margin on conditional volatility. As a result, government has motivation to decrease the volatility in bull market state, whereas it also has motivation to increase the volatility in bear market state. Our paper finds the evidence that the motive for changing the margin is fitted to normal and boom state. Therefore, our result suggests that government has to adjust the change of margin policy adequately to fit the market conditions.

Details

Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies, vol. 18 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2713-6647

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Article
Publication date: 1 March 2004

Kofi A. Amoateng and Javad Kargar

The desire to increase investor interest in emerging markets has motivated many studies of return and risk characteristics of equity prices in these markets. Using data…

Abstract

The desire to increase investor interest in emerging markets has motivated many studies of return and risk characteristics of equity prices in these markets. Using data from January 1999 to December 2002, we examine the dynamic relationships between oil, currency, and stock prices in the four major markets in the Middle East. Three of the four are highly correlated with the major stock markets. The potential for diversifying in Middle East markets is limited. The Egyptian and Jordanian markets, on one hand, and the Israeli and Saudi markets, on the other, are marginally integrated. While Israeli shekels significantly explain their equity prices, crude oil futures prices fairly explain oil‐rich Saudi and Egyptian equity prices. We conclude that it takes a long time for crude oil futures prices to reach equilibrium with stock prices in Israel when there is a shock to the system. However, it takes relatively a short time for crude spot oil prices and currency price to reach equilibrium with stock prices when there is a shock in the system of Saudi Arabia or Egypt. Our results suggest that, in the short and long term, investor decisions in these markets are influenced by oil and currency prices.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 30 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

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Article
Publication date: 19 June 2020

Yaman Omer Erzurumlu, Tunc Oygur and Alper Kirik

Considering the different motivation for the creation of each of these cryptocurrencies, the purpose of this paper is to examine whether there is a dominant external…

Abstract

Purpose

Considering the different motivation for the creation of each of these cryptocurrencies, the purpose of this paper is to examine whether there is a dominant external factor in the cryptocurrency world. Using a novel two-step time and frequency independent methodology, the authors examine a large scope of cryptocurrencies and external factors within the same period, and analytical framework.

Design/methodology/approach

The examined cryptocurrencies are Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, Monero and Dash. In total, 18 external factors from 5 factor families are selected based on the mining motivation of these cryptocurrencies. The study first examines discrete wavelet transform-based (WTB) correlations, reduce the dimension and focuson relevant pairs. Selected pairs are further examined by wavelet coherence to capture the intermittent nature of the relationships allowing the most needed “Flexibility of frequency and time domains”.

Findings

Each coin appears to operate as a unique character with the exception of Bitcoin and Litecoin. There is no prominent external driver. The cryptocurrency market is not a clear substitute for a specific factor or market. Two-step WTB filtered wavelet coherence analysis help us to analyze a large number of factor without the loss of focus. The co-movements within the cryptocurrencies spillover from Ethereum to altcoins and later to Bitcoin.

Originality/value

The study presents one of the first examples of two-step WTB filtered wavelet coherence analysis. The methodology suggests an approach for simultaneous examination of large number of variables. The scope of the study provides a rather holistic view of the co-movements of external factors and major cryptocurrencies.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 37 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

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Article
Publication date: 2 January 2009

Sathya Swaroop Debasish

The paper aims to study the impact of the introduction of Nifty index futures on the volatility of the Indian spot markets by use of econometric models.

Abstract

Purpose

The paper aims to study the impact of the introduction of Nifty index futures on the volatility of the Indian spot markets by use of econometric models.

Design/methodology/approach

The study considered six measures of volatility, the dynamic linear regression model, and the GARCH models to investigate volatility in National Stock Exchange (NSE) Nifty prices both before and after the onset of futures trading.

Findings

The GARCH analysis confirmed no structural change after the introduction of futures trading on Nifty, and found that whilst the pre‐futures sample was integrated, the post‐futures sample was stationary. Spot returns volatility is found to be less important in explaining spot returns after the advent of futures trading in NSE Nifty.

Practical implications

The results imply that futures markets serve their prescribed role of improving pricing efficiency and improve the quality of information flowing to spot markets. This will enable investors to prudently structure their strategies investing in both spot and futures markets.

Originality/value

This study is an original piece of work towards exploring the impact of the introduction of futures trading on cash market volatility in an emerging economy like India.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 10 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 25 September 2009

M. Shabri Abd Majid and Salina Hj Kassim

The purpose of this paper is to explore empirically the effects of the current financial crisis on the integration and co‐movements of selected stock markets of the…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explore empirically the effects of the current financial crisis on the integration and co‐movements of selected stock markets of the emerging economies, namely Indonesia and Malaysia.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper employs the standard time series technique and vector autoregressive framework.

Findings

The results of this paper support the general view that stock markets tend to show greater degree of integration or increased co‐movements during the crisis period, resulting in lesser benefit of diversification that can be gained by investors participating in these markets.

Research limitations/implications

This paper only focuses on emerging equity markets of Malaysia and Indonesia.

Practical implications

This paper reveals that unlike during the pre‐crisis period, the long‐run diversification benefits that can be earned by investors across the emerging equity markets of Indonesia and Malaysia during the crisis period tend to diminish.

Originality/value

By dividing the study periods into the pre‐crisis period and during the crisis period, it enables us to explore whether the cross‐market linkages between these markets change due to the crisis.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 4 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

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Article
Publication date: 4 March 2014

Stavros Degiannakis and Apostolos Kiohos

The Basel Committee regulations require the estimation of value-at-risk (VaR) at 99 percent confidence level for a ten-trading-day-ahead forecasting horizon. The paper…

Abstract

Purpose

The Basel Committee regulations require the estimation of value-at-risk (VaR) at 99 percent confidence level for a ten-trading-day-ahead forecasting horizon. The paper provides a multivariate modelling framework for multi-period VaR estimates for leptokurtic and asymmetrically distributed real estate portfolio returns. The purpose of the paper is to estimate accurate ten-day-ahead 99%VaR forecasts for real estate markets along with stock markets for seven countries across the world (the USA, the UK, Germany, Japan, Australia, Hong Kong and Singapore) following the Basel Committee requirements for financial regulation.

Design/methodology/approach

A 14-dimensional multivariate Diag-VECH model for seven equity indices and their relative real estate indices is estimated. The authors evaluate the VaR forecasts over a period of two weeks in calendar time, or ten-trading-days, and at 99 percent confidence level based on the Basle Committee on Banking Supervision requirements.

Findings

The Basel regulations require ten-day-ahead 99%VaR forecasts. This is the first study that provides successful evidence for ten-day-ahead 99%VaR estimations for real estate markets. Additionally, the authors provide evidence that there is a statistically significant relationship between the magnitude of the ten-day-ahead 99%VaR and the level of dynamic correlation for real estate and stock market indices; a valuable recommendation for risk managers who forecast risk across markets.

Practical implications

Risk managers, investors and financial institutions require dynamic multi-period VaR forecasts that will take into account properties of financial time series. Such accurate dynamic forecasts lead to successful decisions for controlling market risks.

Originality/value

This paper is the first approach which models simultaneously the volatility and VaR estimates for real estate and stock markets from the USA, Europe and Asia-Pacific over a period of more than 20 years. Additionally, the local correlation between stock and real estate indices has statistically significant explanatory power in estimating the ten-day-ahead 99%VaR.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 41 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 1 March 2006

Fotios C. Harmantzis, Linyan Miao and Yifan Chien

This paper aims to test empirically the performance of different models in measuring VaR and ES in the presence of heavy tails in returns using historical data.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to test empirically the performance of different models in measuring VaR and ES in the presence of heavy tails in returns using historical data.

Design/methodology/approach

Daily returns of popular indices (S&P500, DAX, CAC, Nikkei, TSE, and FTSE) and currencies (US dollar vs Euro, Yen, Pound, and Canadian dollar) for over ten years are modeled with empirical (or historical), Gaussian, Generalized Pareto (peak over threshold (POT) technique of extreme value theory (EVT)) and Stable Paretian distribution (both symmetric and non‐symmetric). Experimentation on different factors that affect modeling, e.g. rolling window size and confidence level, has been conducted.

Findings

In estimating VaR, the results show that models that capture rare events can predict risk more accurately than non‐fat‐tailed models. For ES estimation, the historical model (as expected) and POT method are proved to give more accurate estimations. Gaussian model underestimates ES, while Stable Paretian framework overestimates ES.

Practical implications

Research findings are useful to investors and the way they perceive market risk, risk managers and the way they measure risk and calibrate their models, e.g. shortcomings of VaR, and regulators in central banks.

Originality/value

A comparative, thorough empirical study on a number of financial time series (currencies, indices) that aims to reveal the pros and cons of Gaussian versus fat‐tailed models and Stable Paretian versus EVT, in estimating two popular risk measures (VaR and ES), in the presence of extreme events. The effects of model assumptions on different parameters have also been studied in the paper.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 7 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

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