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Book part
Publication date: 8 March 2011

Yushi Yoshida

We investigate whether or not the effects of the subprime financial crisis on 12 Asian economies are similar to those of the Asian financial crisis by examining volatility…

Abstract

We investigate whether or not the effects of the subprime financial crisis on 12 Asian economies are similar to those of the Asian financial crisis by examining volatility spillovers and time-varying correlation between the US and Asian stock markets. After pretesting volatility causality and constancy of correlation, we estimate an appropriate smooth-transition correlation VAR-GARCH model for each Asian stock market. First, the empirical evidence indicates stark differences in stock market linkages between the two crises. The volatility causality comes from the crises-originating country. Volatility in Asian stock markets Granger-caused volatility in the US market during the Asian crisis, whereas volatility in the US stock market Granger-caused volatility in Asian stock markets during the subprime crisis. Second, decreased correlations during the period of financial turmoil were observed, especially during the Asian financial crisis. Third, the estimated points of transition in the correlation are indicative of market participants’ awareness of the ensuing stock market crashes in July 1997 and in September 2008.

Details

The Evolving Role of Asia in Global Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-85724-745-2

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Article
Publication date: 21 August 2017

Trung Hoang Bao and Cesario Mateus

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements, which includes information about the targeted Federal fund rate…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements, which includes information about the targeted Federal fund rate and revision to the future path of monetary policy on Southeast Asian stock market performance.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper has used a sample of five national equity market indexes over the period 1997-2013 that covers 132 scheduled FOMC meetings. The authors have developed the model of Wongswan (2009) and Kontonikas et al. (2013) to quantify target surprise and path surprise.

Findings

The results first show that all the stock markets examined do respond to information in FOMC announcements. Second, the target Federal fund rate has more impact on Southeast Asian stocks performance than information about the future path of monetary policy does. Third, different Southeast Asian equity markets respond similarly to targeting the Federal fund rate, while the responses to monetary policy differ from each other. Fourth, the response of each country to the FOMC announcement is not statistically different in the two periods of financial crisis.

Research limitations/implications

Southeast Asian financial markets are increasingly highly correlated to the US market. The main channel in which FOMC announcement has impact on Southeast Asian stock markets is through US price transmission. This is the case of foreign firms borrowing from the US market. Then, an increase in interest rate, which means that the cost of financing increases, will lower firm equity value.

Originality/value

The understanding of the response of the Southeast Asian stock markets to target surprise and path surprise, and the impact of each surprise in different time periods, would be important to investors and encourage further discussion amongst academics in Southeast Asia, where stock markets have been emerging in recent years.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 7 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

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Article
Publication date: 17 October 2016

Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, Memoona Kanwal, Tanveer Ahmed and Mobeen Ur Rehman

The assessment of interdependence between stock markets is an important aspect of international portfolio management. The purpose of this paper is to examine and highlight…

Abstract

Purpose

The assessment of interdependence between stock markets is an important aspect of international portfolio management. The purpose of this paper is to examine and highlight the diversification potential of South Asian stock markets vis-à-vis developed and European stock markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The developed stocks markets include USA and UK, and South Asian stock markets include India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka while DJ STOXX 600 index is used to represent the European stock markets. Monthly data are used to examine long-run relationship through ARDL bound testing approach and estimates are obtained using DLOS. Short-term dynamics are captured through vector error correction-based Granger causality.

Findings

South Asian stock markets are closely linked with each other; similarly, developed/European markets are interlinked. US stock market not only impacts European stock markets, it also Granger cause South Asian stock markets. The findings suggest increase in comovement of South Asian stock markets with the global markets after financial crises of 2007-2008.

Practical implications

The diversification benefits of South Asian stock markets for international investors are still evident due to their low relationship (in both long and short run) with developed/European stock markets.

Originality/value

Given the emergence of South Asian stock markets, new insight on their relationship with developed stock markets can provide interesting findings for international portfolio diversification. The South Asian equity markets are an important source of investment because of their immense growth and weak correlation with international markets.

Details

South Asian Journal of Global Business Research, vol. 5 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2045-4457

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Article
Publication date: 17 March 2014

Tho Nguyen and Chau Ngo

– This paper aims to investigate the spillover effect of 14 US key macroeconomic news on the first two moments of 12 Asian stock market returns.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the spillover effect of 14 US key macroeconomic news on the first two moments of 12 Asian stock market returns.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors collect market expectation and actual scheduled announcements data for 14 key US's macroeconomic announcements from January 2002 to April 2012 from Bloomberg. The dataset consists of six groups: monetary policy and general macroeconomic indicators: the Federal Reserve's target interest rates (FOMC), gross domestic product (GDP), and leading indicator (LI); price indicators: consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI); business indicator: housing starts (HS) and industrial production (IP); consumption indicators: retail sales (RS) and consumer confidence level (CONSUM); labor market indicators: non-farm payroll (NFP), unemployment level (UE), and jobless claim (JOB); and external sector indicators: current account (CA) and trade balance (TB). The authors also collect daily opening and closing data of 12 Asian stock markets. Following Dow Jones classification, the authors divide them into two groups: five developed markets (Japan, Hong Kong, Republic of Korea, Singapore and Taiwan), and seven emerging markets (China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Thailand). The MA-EGARCH (1,1) model is used for the empirical test.

Findings

First, the authors find that stronger than expected news from the USA is associated with higher conditional mean and lower conditional variance of the Asian stock market returns, in general. Second, the Asian stock markets tend to put more weight on information relating to the US labor market than the other news as this indicator reveals much information about the underlying health of the US economy since full employment is the most important mandate for the US administration and policy makers. Third, in responding to the US news, the Asian emerging markets seem to respond stronger to the US news than the Asian developed markets both in terms of the number of responses and the magnitude of the reaction. This suggests that this could be seen as evidence that emerging markets are more dependent on the information content of the US news than the developed markets. Fourth, the US news is absorbed gradually leading to persisting volatility responses in the Asian stock markets.

Originality/value

The authors fill a gap in the extant literature in investigating the speeds of the news absorption across the Asia region by examining the spillover effects across three time horizons, namely daily, overnight and intraday.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 15 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

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Article
Publication date: 1 August 2016

KimHiang Liow

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the cross-spectra of stock, real estate and bond of ten selected Asian economies in the pre- and post-global financial crisis…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the cross-spectra of stock, real estate and bond of ten selected Asian economies in the pre- and post-global financial crisis periods to detect whether there is greater cyclical co-movement post-financial crisis, and whether any observed increased co-movement measures the outcomes of contagion or integration.

Design/methodology/approach

Co-spectral approach is the proper econometric tool to deliver economic insight for this research.

Findings

Results indicate that Asian stock markets, and to a lesser degree, bond and real estate markets are more correlated post-financial crisis. Similarly, Asian financial markets have experienced increased co-movements with the US financial markets post-financial crisis. Moreover, these observed increased co-movements measure the outcomes of contagion in some cases of within-asset and cross-asset classes, as well as for some cross-US-Asian asset factor relationships along the high-frequency components of between two and four weeks. The stock markets are the most contagious, followed by the real estate markets and bond markets.

Research limitations/implications

The results provide short-term investors with additional co-movement information at higher frequencies in order to identify short-term fluctuations of different asset classes. The empirical study also underscores the role of Asian real estate in investment portfolios in a mixed real estate, stock and bond context from a frequency domain perspective.

Practical implications

The practical implication of this research is that benefits to investors from international diversification may not be as great during the present time compared to previous periods because financial/asset market movements have become more correlated. However, it does not imply the complete absence of diversification benefits. This is because although cyclical correlations increase in the short run, many of the values are still between low and moderate range, indicating that some diversification benefits may still be realized.

Originality/value

In advancing the body of knowledge in international financial markets, this research is probably the first study to consider a multi-asset class portfolio context that includes stock, real estate and bond across the ten Asian economies and the USA in a single study. The frequency domain analysis conducted in this paper adds to the understanding of real estate, stock and bond market co-movement, integration and contagion dynamics, as well as the Asian cross-asset factor and US-Asian asset factor relationships in global mixed-investing environment.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 34 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

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Article
Publication date: 24 May 2013

Sowmya Dhanaraj, Arun Kumar Gopalaswamy and Suresh Babu M

The purpose of this paper is to examine the short‐term stock market interactions between US and six major Asian markets – China, India, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the short‐term stock market interactions between US and six major Asian markets – China, India, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. These six economies along with Japan and Australia have the largest stock exchanges in the Asia‐Pacific region. The importance of the US market to the Asian economies is the prime motivation for a quantitative assessment of its role in this region. The objective of this study is to measure the dynamic stock market interdependence of US and Asian newly industrialized economies (NIEs) (Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan) and emerging market economies (EMEs) (China and India) post Asian crisis of 1997 and also to capture the market interactions during the sub‐prime crisis.

Design/methodology/approach

The study has employed Granger causality tests and generalized forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) analysis to analyze the fluctuations in and the extent of short‐term interdependence between the US and Asian economies. VAR model was estimated to run the simulations for FEVD analysis.

Findings

The empirical results from FEVD analysis revealed the dominance of US stock market on Asian markets; the USA being a large economy of the world, an important trading partner and major supplier of capital to Asian region. Stock markets of Asia are not immune to the shocks originating in the USA although the effects of shocks vary considerably across markets. Further, an important implication is that major crisis events can influence the relationship among stock markets.

Originality/value

This is one of the first papers in the Asian context examining the interdependence with the US markets. Hence, even though most of the Asian economies went through liberalization, the macroeconomic and financial circumstances were very different before, after and during the process. This motivated the examination of the interactions between US and other Asian markets.

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Article
Publication date: 29 June 2021

Thazhungal Govindan Saji

The Global recession of 2008 was the worst financial crisis in the postworld war economic history that brought in severe disruptions in global investments and capital…

Abstract

Purpose

The Global recession of 2008 was the worst financial crisis in the postworld war economic history that brought in severe disruptions in global investments and capital flows. Not surprisingly, research interest in the field of market integration has considerably increased over the last decade. This paper analyses the dynamics of price integration among Asian financial markets during the postfinancial crisis period.

Design/methodology/approach

We employ an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and a Granger Causality/Block Exogeniety test from a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) on monthly stock index data of five leading Asian economies from April 2009 to March 2020.

Findings

The cointegration results could not produce any conclusive evidence of long-run relations between stock markets. There exists weak price convergence among markets, and financial integration is partial and in an imperfect form.

Research limitations/implications

Stock price performance in China is closely “coupled” with that in India, but both markets appear to be the short-run predictors of Asian stock returns. The research uses only the benchmark stock indices of the selected economies. Consideration of mid-cap and small-cap segments where foreign investments are significant today can validate the findings further.

Practical implications

The asymmetric pattern of price behavior of Asian markets has important implications for the pricing efficiency of national markets and offers arbitrage potentials for global investors to optimize returns through market diversifications on a long-term perspective. The finding definitely will be a great help to investors who are potentially interested in a trading strategy that offers greater returns with limited exposure to market risks.

Originality/value

Compared with previous studies, the research uses the most recent data of leading Asian markets and applies the robust method of ARDL Bounds testing approach that allows us to understand better if the economic recoveries and advancement have had an effect on market coupling and stock price transmissions.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

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Book part
Publication date: 23 December 2005

Xuan Vinh Vo and Kevin James Daly

The study investigates the interdependence of the stock markets between the following countries Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines…

Abstract

The study investigates the interdependence of the stock markets between the following countries Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and the advanced stock markets of Australia, Germany, United Kingdom and the United States. Using data from 1994 to 2003 the paper employs both correlation, causality and cointegration analysis to describe the behaviour of the above stock market indices over the period pre and post the 1997 Asian Financial Crises. The paper investigates both the short- and long-run relationships between the Asian markets and the markets of selected advanced industrial countries.

Details

Asia Pacific Financial Markets in Comparative Perspective: Issues and Implications for the 21st Century
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-76231-258-0

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Article
Publication date: 13 May 2020

Umm E. Habiba, Shen Peilong, Wenlong Zhang and Kashif Hamid

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the cointegration and volatility spillover dynamics between the USA and South Asian stock markets, namely, India, Pakistan and…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the cointegration and volatility spillover dynamics between the USA and South Asian stock markets, namely, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The main objective of this study is to provide the knowledge about integration of financial market and volatility spillovers before, during and after global financial crisis to investors, fund managers and policy-makers.

Design/methodology/approach

The Johansen and Juselius cointegration test, Granger Causality test and bivaraite EGARCH model have been applied in this study to examine integration and volatility spillovers between selected stock markets.

Findings

The findings show that long-term integration between the USA market and South Asian emerging stock markets. It is found that USA stock market has causal relationship with emerging stock markets in short-term. The findings of EGARCH model reveal that asymmetric volatility spillover effects significant in all selected stock markets in pre, during and post-crisis periods. Furthermore, significant volatility spillover is found from stock markets of USA to all selected South Asian markets during and post-crisis periods. However, volatility spillovers from USA to India and Sri-Lanka markets are significant, while insignificant in case of Pakistani market in pre-crisis period. Overall, we find that returns and volatility spillover effects are higher in financial crisis period as compared to non-financial crisis period.

Practical implications

The findings of this paper have important implications for investors, portfolio managers and policy-makers. They can take potential benefits from international portfolio diversification by considering all these facts. The understanding and knowledge of across volatility transmission help them to maximize the gains from diversification and minimize the risk. Policy-makers can develop such strategies which protect the markets of these economies from future financial crisis.

Originality/value

Although in finance literature numerous studies have been conducted on integration between different stock markets, most of the studies investigated the integration and volatility spillovers between developed stock markets. However, many studies also analyzed the integration among emerging stock markets in literature review but it is hard to find studies in the context of South Asian stock markets on the effect of global financial crisis on stock markets. The main contribution of this study is to investigate the stock markets integration and volatility transmission between the USA and South Asia by considering the effect of recent 2007 US subprime financial crisis.

Details

Journal of Asia Business Studies, vol. 14 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1558-7894

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Article
Publication date: 20 January 2012

Murali Batareddy, Arun Kumar Gopalaswamy and Chia‐Hsing Huang

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the stability of the long‐run relationships between emerging (India, China, South Korea, and Taiwan) and developed stock markets

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the stability of the long‐run relationships between emerging (India, China, South Korea, and Taiwan) and developed stock markets (USA and Japan). The study aims at adding to the literature on market integration by investigating the hypothesis that the Asian emerging stock markets are increasingly converging with the US stock market over time.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use time varying cointegration tests (rolling and recursive cointegration) which allow for time variation in the underlying data generating process (possible structural breaks in the long‐run relationships). Ten year index data from mid 1998 to 2008 of the respective stock markets have been used for this study.

Findings

Empirical findings support the presence of one long‐run relationship (cointegration vector) between emerging and developed stock markets. Both domestic and external forces affect stock market behavior, leading to long‐run equilibrium but the individual Asian emerging stock markets tend to display stronger linkages with the USA (developed counterpart) rather than with their neighbors. The degree of convergence among Asian emerging markets has increased over the last few years.

Originality/value

This is the first paper to study cointegration among Asian emerging stock markets namely India, China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as their cointegration with the developed stock markets of the USA and Japan.

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