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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 1 July 2024

Abdul Moizz and S.M. Jawed Akhtar

The study aims to determine the long and short-term causal relationships between the variables associated with the adjustment of monetary policy and the stock market in India in…

924

Abstract

Purpose

The study aims to determine the long and short-term causal relationships between the variables associated with the adjustment of monetary policy and the stock market in India in the presence of structural breaks.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test and the Error Correction Model to assess long- and short-term causal relationships. The study also used non-frequentist Bayesian inferences for the validity of estimation robustness. The Bai–Perron test is used to identify breakpoint dates for the Indian stock market index, and the Granger Causality test is employed to ascertain the direction of causality.

Findings

The F-bounds test reveals cointegration among the variables throughout the examined period. Specifically, the weighted average call money rate (WACR), inflation (WPI), currency exchange rate (EXE), and broad money supply (M3) exhibit statistical significance with precise signs. Furthermore, the study identifies the negative impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in March 2020 on the Indian stock market.

Research limitations/implications

Although the study provides significant insights, it is not exempt from constraints. A significant limitation is selecting a relatively limited time period, specifically from April 2008 to September 2023. The limited time frame of this study may restrict the applicability of the results to more comprehensive economic settings, as dynamics between the monetary policy and the stock market can be influenced by multiple factors over varying time periods. Furthermore, the utilisation of the Weighted Average Call Money Rate (WACR) rather than policy rates such as the Repo rate presents an additional constraint as it may not comprehensively account for the impacts of particular policy initiatives, thereby disregarding essential complexities in the connection between monetary policy variables and financial markets.

Practical implications

The findings of the study suggest that investors and portfolio managers should consider economic issues while developing long-term investing plans. Reserve Bank of India should exercise prudence to prevent any discretionary measures that may lead to a rise in interest rates since this adversely affects the stock market. To mitigate risk, investors should closely monitor the adjustment of monetary policy variables.

Social implications

The study has important social implications, especially regarding the lower levels of financial literacy among investors in India. Considering the complex nature of the study’s emphasis on monetary policy adjustments and their impact on the stock market. Investors face the risk of significant losses due to unexpected adjustments in monetary policy. Many individuals may need help understanding how policy changes impact their investments. Therefore, RBI must consider both price and financial stability when formulating monetary policies. Furthermore, market participants should consider the potential impact of fluctuating monetary policy variables when devising their long-term investment strategies. Given that adjustments in interest rates can markedly affect stock market dynamics, investors must carefully assess the implications of monetary policy decisions on their portfolios.

Originality/value

The study uses dummy variables in the ARDL model to represent structural breaks that emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic (as determined by the Bai–Perron multiple breakpoint test). The study also used the Perron unit root test to find out the stationary of the series in the presence of structural breaks. Additionally, the study also employed Bayesian inferences to affirm the robustness of the estimates.

Details

Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2615-9821

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 4 July 2022

Haydory Akbar Ahmed

This paper explores the evidence of a long-run co-movement between aggregate unemployment insurance spending and the labor force participation rate in the USA. The unemployment…

1837

Abstract

Purpose

This paper explores the evidence of a long-run co-movement between aggregate unemployment insurance spending and the labor force participation rate in the USA. The unemployment insurance (UI) program tends to expand during an economic downturn and contract during an expansion. UI may incentivize unemployment and may also facilitate better matching in the labor market. Statistical evidence of the presence of a co-movement will thus shed new light on their dynamics.

Design/methodology/approach

This research applies time-series econometric approach using monthly data from 1959:1 to 2020:3 to test threshold cointegration and estimate a threshold vector error-correction (TVEC) model. The estimates from the TVEC model investigating the nature of short-run dynamics.

Findings

The Enders and Siklos (2001) test find evidence of threshold cointegration between the two indicating the presence of long-run co-movement. The estimates from the TVEC model investigating the nature of short-run dynamics find evidence that the growth in aggregate UI spending and the growth in labor force participation rate adjust simultaneously to maintain the long-run co-movement above the threshold in the short run. The author also observes the same short-run dynamics for the growth in aggregate UI spending and the growth in the labor force participation rate for females.

Research limitations/implications

This model is bi-variate by construction and does not address causality.

Practical implications

The author argues that the UI program positively impacts the female labor market outcomes, for example, better matching. This finding may explain the upward trend in the labor force participation rate for females in the USA.

Social implications

The research findings may justify the transfer programs for minority and immigrants.

Originality/value

This is first research that analyzes the UI programs impact on the labor force participation using a macroeconometric approach. To the best of the author's knowledge, this is the first study in this genre.

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 15 May 2023

Augustine Tarkom and Xinhui Huang

Recognizing the severity of COVID-19 on the US economy, the authors investigate the behavior of US-listed firms towards leverage speed of adjustment (SOA) during the pandemic…

1065

Abstract

Purpose

Recognizing the severity of COVID-19 on the US economy, the authors investigate the behavior of US-listed firms towards leverage speed of adjustment (SOA) during the pandemic. While prior evidence (based on an international study) shows that firm leverage increased during the pandemic leading to a higher SOA toward leverage ratios, leverage for US firms during the same period reduced drastically. Yet there is a dearth of empirical studies on the behavior of US-listed firms' SOA during the pandemic. The authors fill this void.

Design/methodology/approach

The study includes US-listed non-financial and non-utility firms for the period 2015Q1-2021Q4, covering a total sample of 45,213 firm-quarter observations. The authors’ empirical strategy is based on the generalized method of moments (GMM) and firm-fixed effect methodology, controlling for firm- and quarter-fixed effects.

Findings

Three main findings are established: (1) while the SOA toward book target increased during the pandemic, SOA toward market target increased significantly only for less valued and cash-constrained firms; (2) firms in states most impacted by the pandemic adjusted faster towards target ratio; and (3) while the emergence of the pandemic and the overall firm-level risk increased (decreased) the deviation from book (market) target, firm-level risk partially mediated the effect of the pandemic on how far firms deviated from target ratio.

Practical implications

This study enhances our understanding of leverage adjustment during the crisis and shows that risk avoidance motive and the market value of firms are key determinants of convergence rate during the crisis and further demonstrates that market leverage is more sensitive to market dynamics. As such, caution must be taken when dealing with and interpreting market leverage SOA.

Originality/value

Although prior evidence based on international study provides insights into how firms behave toward their leverage ratios because of the pandemic, little is known about how US firms react to the pandemic in terms of the target ratios, particularly (1) since the USA is one of the severely affected countries and (2) firms in the USA reduced their leverage ratios as against what prior evidence shows. The authors provide evidence to explain how and why US firms reacted toward their SOA during the pandemic.

Details

China Accounting and Finance Review, vol. 25 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1029-807X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 May 2022

N.M. Ashikuzzaman

This paper addresses the question “Does the growth of nonperforming loan ratio (GNPL) have a temporal impact on private credit growth (PCG)?” for the Bangladesh banking industry…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper addresses the question “Does the growth of nonperforming loan ratio (GNPL) have a temporal impact on private credit growth (PCG)?” for the Bangladesh banking industry during and after the global financial crisis of 2008.

Design/methodology/approach

It employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to examine the temporal equilibrium relationship and causality between PCG and GNPL.

Findings

The results of ARDL bound tests confirm the existence of a single cointegrating vector and temporal equilibrium relationship between variables of interest. According to the error correction mechanism (ECM), there is unidirectional causality from GNPL to PCG in the long run and short run. In the long run, higher GNPL curtails PCG since bankers use the nonperforming loan ratio as a signal and indicator of credit risk in their loan decision-making. In the short run, GNPL positively impacts PCG. It may be because banks go through a rigorous process before declaring a loan as nonperforming that takes time. At the same time, bankers' loan decisions may also be guided by the banks myopic concern of reputation in the short run.

Practical implications

The paper recommends policy prescriptions for the bank risk management, regulatory bodies and the legal authorities. The lending policy of banks should consider the legacy of bad assets. The efficiency of the legal system can also aid in effectively implementing the regulatory guidelines.

Originality/value

The paper inaugurates a bivariate cointegration analysis between PCG and GNPL in the literature. It has utilized quarterly aggregate data in the context of a developing economy like Bangladesh.

Details

Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, vol. 6 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2615-9821

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 11 April 2023

Wenhao Yi, Mingnian Wang, Jianjun Tong, Siguang Zhao, Jiawang Li, Dengbin Gui and Xiao Zhang

The purpose of the study is to quickly identify significant heterogeneity of surrounding rock of tunnel face that generally occurs during the construction of large-section rock…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the study is to quickly identify significant heterogeneity of surrounding rock of tunnel face that generally occurs during the construction of large-section rock tunnels of high-speed railways.

Design/methodology/approach

Relying on the support vector machine (SVM)-based classification model, the nominal classification of blastholes and nominal zoning and classification terms were used to demonstrate the heterogeneity identification method for the surrounding rock of tunnel face, and the identification calculation was carried out for the five test tunnels. Then, the suggestions for local optimization of the support structures of large-section rock tunnels were put forward.

Findings

The results show that compared with the two classification models based on neural networks, the SVM-based classification model has a higher classification accuracy when the sample size is small, and the average accuracy can reach 87.9%. After the samples are replaced, the SVM-based classification model can still reach the same accuracy, whose generalization ability is stronger.

Originality/value

By applying the identification method described in this paper, the significant heterogeneity characteristics of the surrounding rock in the process of two times of blasting were identified, and the identification results are basically consistent with the actual situation of the tunnel face at the end of blasting, and can provide a basis for local optimization of support parameters.

Details

Railway Sciences, vol. 2 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2755-0907

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 25 May 2021

Francesco Nemore, Rocco Caferra and Andrea Morone

Our main purpose is to test the unemployment invariance hypothesis in Italy.

1805

Abstract

Purpose

Our main purpose is to test the unemployment invariance hypothesis in Italy.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper provides an empirical investigation of the unemployment and labor force participation in Italy.

Findings

Cointegration analysis results strongly suggest a clear long-run relationship between unemployment and labor force participation revealing a persistent and general added worker effect.

Originality/value

Our results seem to confute the unemployment invariance hypothesis.

Details

International Journal of Manpower, vol. 42 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0143-7720

Keywords

Open Access

Abstract

Details

Regional Success After Brexit: The Need for New Measures
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78756-736-8

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 9 March 2023

Raquel Mesquita Almeida

This paper aims to argue that Economics is not a neutral science.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to argue that Economics is not a neutral science.

Design/methodology/approach

Post-structuralist perspective of Lyotard (1984), alongside the Pragmatics of Searle (1979) and Travis (1981) are useful for analyzing enunciations in mainstream Economics.

Findings

Economists use illocutionary acts expressed in formal language to achieve perlocutionary effects. Because of the importance attached to objectivity in mainstream Economics, the use of artificial languages is preferred to natural language. However, formal language is preferred regarding its perlocutionary effects on economists' community.

Originality/value

This paper puts together the Continental and the Analytical Philosophy and show, in an original manner, how their intersections and how they can be useful to better understand the epistemology of Economics.

Details

EconomiA, vol. 24 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1517-7580

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 22 July 2024

Ali H. Al-Hoorie and Ahmad Abdurrahman K. AlAwdah

This study aims to promote transdisciplinary integration in applied linguistics research by exploring the potential contribution of electrophysiology to enhancing listening…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to promote transdisciplinary integration in applied linguistics research by exploring the potential contribution of electrophysiology to enhancing listening comprehension skills. Specifically, it examines the effectiveness of dynamic auto-adjustment of speech rate based on heart rate in mitigating listening stress. The study also discusses the implications and future directions of interdisciplinary efforts in applied linguistics.

Design/methodology/approach

This study combines literature review, theoretical analysis, and practical application. It begins with a review of existing literature on transdisciplinary integration in applied linguistics and electrophysiology research. Theoretical frameworks are then synthesized to inform the development of an innovative approach to mitigate listening stress through dynamic auto-adjustment of speech rate based on heart rate.

Findings

The analysis suggests that transdisciplinary integration in applied linguistics research, particularly through the incorporation of electrophysiology, holds significant promise for enhancing listening comprehension skills. The dynamic auto-adjustment of speech rate based on heart rate emerges as a promising strategy for mitigating listening stress, calling for empirical research into this topic.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the field of applied linguistics by advocating for transdisciplinary integration and exploring innovative approaches to address challenges in language learning. Incorporating electrophysiology and dynamic auto-adjustment of speech rate based on heart rate offers novel research directions for practical strategies for enhancing listening comprehension skills. This research has the potential to advance theoretical understanding as well as offering practical implications for educators and policymakers seeking to improve language learning outcomes in diverse educational settings.

Details

Saudi Journal of Language Studies, vol. 4 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2634-243X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 14 December 2023

Huijuan Zhou, Rui Wang, Dongyang Weng, Ruoyu Wang and Yaoqin Qiao

The interruption event will seriously affect the normal operation of urban rail transit lines,causing a large number of passengers to be stranded in the station and even making…

Abstract

Purpose

The interruption event will seriously affect the normal operation of urban rail transit lines,causing a large number of passengers to be stranded in the station and even making the train stranded in the interval between stations. This study aims to reduce the impact of interrupt events and improve service levels.

Design/methodology/approach

To address this issue, this paper considers the constraints of train operation safety, capacity and dynamic passenger flow demand. It proposes a method for adjusting small loops during interruption events and constructs a train operation adjustment model with the objective of minimizing the total passenger waiting time. This model enables the rapid development of train operation plans in interruption scenarios, coordinating train scheduling and line resources to minimize passenger travel time and mitigate the impact of interruptions. Regarding the proposed train operation adjustment model, an improved genetic algorithm (GA) is designed to solve it.

Findings

The model and algorithm are applied to a case study of interruption events on Beijing Subway Line 5. The results indicate that after solving the constructed model, the train departure intervals can be maintained between 1.5 min and 3 min. This ensures both the safety of train operations on the line and a good match with passengers’ travel demands, effectively reducing the total passenger waiting time and improving the service level of the urban rail transit system during interruptions. Compared to the GA algorithm, the algorithm proposed in this paper demonstrates faster convergence speed and better computational results.

Originality/value

This study explicitly outlines the adjustment method of using short-turn operation during operational interruptions, with train departure times and station stop times as decision variables. It takes into full consideration safety constraints on train operations, train capacity constraints and dynamic passenger demand. It has constructed a train schedule optimization model with the goal of minimizing the total waiting time for all passengers in the system.

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