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1 – 8 of 8The purpose of this paper is to examine the long‐run sustainability of trade deficits for the ASEAN‐five economies, viz., Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Myanmar and…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the long‐run sustainability of trade deficits for the ASEAN‐five economies, viz., Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Myanmar and Thailand, in the presence of structural breaks.
Design/methodology/approach
It utilizes the Saikkonen and Lütkepohl cointegration procedure, allowing for structural breaks in the series. To determine endogenous structural breaks, the Lanne et al. unit root test is applied.
Findings
The study confirms a long run relation between exports and imports for Indonesia, Myanmar and Thailand; and finds sustainable long‐run trade deficit only for Myanmar.
Research limitations/implications
The results suggest that macroeconomic policies in Myanmar have been sustainable and effective in leading exports and imports to the long‐run steady state equilibrium. However, the paper did not find cointegration between exports and imports for Malaysia and the Philippines. This result suggests that macroeconomic policies have failed to establish; a long‐run equilibrium; and sustainable external (import and export) balance. For Indonesia and Thailand while the macroeconomic policies may give the appearance of being effective in establishing a long‐run equilibrium, the relation may not be sustainable, however.
Originality/value
The paper finds that despite the presence of structural breaks, Myanmar represents the only economy among the ASEAN‐five that is on a long‐run sustainable trade deficit. To the author's knowledge this the only work that examines sustainability of trade deficits using time series techniques that incorporates structural breaks in the context of ASEAN‐five with implication for trade openness policy. From that perspective the work can be seen as an original contribution to the literature.
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Hassanudin Mohd Thas Thaker, Mohamed Asmy Mohd Thas Thaker, Muhammad Rizky Prima Sakti, Imtiaz Sifat, Anwar Allah Pitchay and Hafezali Iqbal Hussain
The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) of China on investment opportunities in five ASEAN economies.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) of China on investment opportunities in five ASEAN economies.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper employs advanced empirical approaches, such as Multivariate DCC-GARCH and Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) to test the research objective. The period of analysis involved monthly data from 2003 until 2019.
Findings
This paper provides evidence where the Malaysian stock market to be the least exposed to risks emanating from Chinese EPU, followed by Singapore, the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia. Results for investment opportunities based on time horizon suggest, for a short-term holding period, investors are better off investing in Singapore and Indonesia, while, for medium-term holding periods, all ASEAN markets appear lucrative except for the Philippines.
Practical implications
From a managerial perspective, the outcome or findings of this study are expected to aid the retail and institutional investors in designing better strategies on diversifying a stock portfolio with different holding periods.
Originality/value
Theoretically, the findings of this study contribute fresh insights into an emerging strand of literature focusing on the transmission of regional policy. Methodologically as well, this study is a novel venture to the best of authors' knowledge.
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Prospects for South-east Asia to end-2017.
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB221378
ISSN: 2633-304X
Keywords
Geographic
Topical
Suvayan Neogi and Chandni Dawani
Any country including India which has registered remarkable growth has done so by participating in the economic integration process led by global and regional trade…
Abstract
Any country including India which has registered remarkable growth has done so by participating in the economic integration process led by global and regional trade liberalization. India has an emerging web of cooperation with East Asian countries, especially Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) through the ASEAN–India dialogue process, the bilateral free trade agreement with Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand and subregional initiatives such as the Mekong–Ganga Cooperation and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC; Yong 2005).
India's free trade agreements and regional trade agreements with countries in this region have not been models of success in their implementation even when there were benefits. The main idea of the formal trade negotiation was to enhance ASEAN-India partnership, specifically in the economic arena. However, India's position in ASEAN's external trade and investment flows has not yet experienced any special momentum. The two-way trade between India and ASEAN is tilted toward ASEAN with the trade gap expanding rapidly.
Thus, to understand India's trade with ASEAN, the chapter would examine India's trade prospects with the ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, and Vietnam) particularly in merchandise trade. This chapter would identify new products that India can export to the ASEAN, which will increase its share in ASEAN's market. In order to achieve this, the chapter seeks to discuss the detailed microanalysis at HS 6-digit level to capture the trade creation effects based on lower unit value items for estimating product-specific potential exports and imports to/from ASEAN.
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Abubakar Hamid Danlami, Sirajo Aliyu and Ismail Aliyu Danmaraya
The persistent rise in the global discharges of carbon (CO2) emissions and the likely undesirable consequences of this practice on the global atmosphere attracts the attention of…
Abstract
Purpose
The persistent rise in the global discharges of carbon (CO2) emissions and the likely undesirable consequences of this practice on the global atmosphere attracts the attention of policy makers and researchers to argue on the causes and perpetrators of CO2 emissions at international level. The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between economic growth, energy production, capital formation, foreign direct investment (FDI) and CO2 emissions in the LMI and Middle East and North African (MENA) countries for the period 1980–2011.
Design/methodology/approach
Two separate autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models were estimated for both the LMI and MENA countries, for the period 1980–2011. Furthermore, a fully modified OLS (FMOLS) was estimated for the two regions over the same period.
Findings
The results indicated that for the lower-middle income countries, there is a positive significant relationship between energy production and CO2 emissions. In the long run while in the short run, FDI and EGP are positively related to CO2 emissions while gross capital formation (GCF) has a negative impact on the CO2 emissions in the short run over the same period. Similarly, for the MENA countries, there is a positive relationship between EGP, GCF and CO2 emissions in both the short run and the long run. Furthermore, the estimated group mean FMOLS indicated that apart from GDP, all other variables have significant positive impact on CO2 emissions.
Research limitations/implications
The study covers only the period 1980–2011. This was because of limited available data during the study.
Practical implications
The study recommended the adoption of green technology by FDI firms and also in the process of energy production such as in crude oil production.
Originality/value
The study carried out a complex analysis where simultaneously all the countries of LMI and MENA regions where considered. Furthermore, separate analysis where conducted for each of the LMI and MENA regions using ARDL model. Variable representing energy production was included in the analysis which was not considered by previous studies. Lastly, FMOLS was estimated for the pooled of LMI and MENA countries which further distinguished the study from the relevant previous studies.
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The Global recession of 2008 was the worst financial crisis in the postworld war economic history that brought in severe disruptions in global investments and capital flows. Not…
Abstract
Purpose
The Global recession of 2008 was the worst financial crisis in the postworld war economic history that brought in severe disruptions in global investments and capital flows. Not surprisingly, research interest in the field of market integration has considerably increased over the last decade. This paper analyses the dynamics of price integration among Asian financial markets during the postfinancial crisis period.
Design/methodology/approach
We employ an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and a Granger Causality/Block Exogeniety test from a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) on monthly stock index data of five leading Asian economies from April 2009 to March 2020.
Findings
The cointegration results could not produce any conclusive evidence of long-run relations between stock markets. There exists weak price convergence among markets, and financial integration is partial and in an imperfect form.
Research limitations/implications
Stock price performance in China is closely “coupled” with that in India, but both markets appear to be the short-run predictors of Asian stock returns. The research uses only the benchmark stock indices of the selected economies. Consideration of mid-cap and small-cap segments where foreign investments are significant today can validate the findings further.
Practical implications
The asymmetric pattern of price behavior of Asian markets has important implications for the pricing efficiency of national markets and offers arbitrage potentials for global investors to optimize returns through market diversifications on a long-term perspective. The finding definitely will be a great help to investors who are potentially interested in a trading strategy that offers greater returns with limited exposure to market risks.
Originality/value
Compared with previous studies, the research uses the most recent data of leading Asian markets and applies the robust method of ARDL Bounds testing approach that allows us to understand better if the economic recoveries and advancement have had an effect on market coupling and stock price transmissions.
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Amitabh Anand, Varsha Pratibha Shantakumar, Birgit Muskat, Sanjay Kumar Singh, Jean-Pierre Dumazert and Youssra Riahi
This study aims to explore and synthesize the role of knowledge management (KM) in tourism organizations (including micro, small, medium and large enterprises and destination…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to explore and synthesize the role of knowledge management (KM) in tourism organizations (including micro, small, medium and large enterprises and destination management organizations).
Design/methodology/approach
This study adopts systematic review methods to synthesize the role of KM in tourism from 90 journal articles.
Findings
This study identifies the prominent theories adopted to explore the relation and impact of KM in the tourism sector, the geographic distribution of the literature and thorough qualitative synthesis. This study identifies the critical research themes investigated and the outcome of KM applications. Finally, through reviews, this study identifies critical gaps in the literature and offer promising avenues to advance the KM in tourism research.
Originality/value
This is one of the few papers that comprehensively review the role of KM in the tourism industry and offer implications.
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Olayeni Olaolu Richard and Aviral Kumar Tiwari
The present study aims to analyse the sustainability of the trade deficits in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-5 countries using panel framework during the…
Abstract
Purpose
The present study aims to analyse the sustainability of the trade deficits in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-5 countries using panel framework during the period from 1965 to 2011.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper applied a battery of first- and second-generation panel unit root tests and Pedroni's, Kao and Chiang's, Westerlund, and Di Iorio and Fachin cointegration tests to achieve the objective.
Findings
The paper found the evidence of sustainable trade deficit in ASEAN-5 countries while utilizing panel unit root tests as well as panel cointegration tests.
Research limitations/implications
The findings have important macroeconomic policies implication for ASEAN-5 countries that these policies had been effective in leading exports and imports to long-run steady-state equilibrium relationship among the ASEAN-5 countries.
Originality/value
The main contribution of the paper is to show that the macroeconomic policies of ASEAN-5 countries had been effective in leading exports and imports to long-run steady-state equilibrium relationship. To the authors' best knowledge, in this area, this is the first study in the panel framework for ASEAN countries.
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