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This study deals with changes in European Union's (EU's) trade potential in Machinery (HS 84–85) and Transportation (HS86-89) products.

The study uses a Structural Gravity model, Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation together with panel data for the years 2002–2018 and a two-step procedure that employs predicted values of bilateral trade to compare potential to actual trade.

Results for Machinery products suggest a potential to expand trade with existing Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) in the American continent, and countries of the IGAD region in Africa. In Transportation, a high trade potential with RTAs is found in the Americas, Africa and the Middle East. Policy suggestions concentrate on opportunities for enhancing trade relations through trade liberalization and agreement proliferation.

There are no studies to date, that examine “collective” measure of EU trade potential, that treats the EU as a single country. Changes in existing opportunities to expand trade, common for EU members, are of special interest for policy formulation, especially after the recent turmoil presented by the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Greek Economic Crisis (GEC). Treating the EU as a single entity, is necessary for the formulation of an effective, common, EU trade policy. This study concentrates on the manufacturing sector to examine existing opportunities for the EU to expand trade, after the GFC and the GEC. This article deals with Machinery (HS 84 and 85) and Transportation (HS 86 through 89) products as they comprise a significant part of total EU exports, reaching 41% of total exports in 2016. Finally, this study offers a unique illustration of results through trade potential heat maps.

The Russian export flow is highly concentrated on few trading partners that results in its high vulnerability to external shock. Furthermore, the Russian–Ukraine conflict and corresponding western sanctions has enhanced the need of export markets diversification for Russia. Therefore, this study is a baseline attempt to explore determinants of export flow along with identifying potential export markets. This objective is realized by employing an augmented version of gravity model on export flow of Russian Federation to 108 trading partners from 2000 to 2020.

The augmented gravity model of export flow is estimated by using employing contemporary panel econometrics such as panel generalized ordinary least square estimation technique with cross-sectional weight along with heteroskedasticity consistent white coefficients is employed to explore impact of selected macroeconomic and policy variables. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis is performed by using panel random effect along with the Driscoll–Kraay standard errors with pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and random effect generalized least square (GLS) estimator techniques. The estimated result of panel GLS technique is subjected to in-sampled forecasting technique to explore potential export markets.

The findings show that an increase in the income of trading partners and enhancement of domestic production capacity has significant positive impact on Russian export flow, whereas geographic distance has a significant negative impact. Income of trading partners emerged as major determinant of export flow with high explanatory power. Among augmented variables, the real exchange rate reveals a significant positive impact of lower intensity, whereas binary variables for the common border, common history and preferential/free trade agreement show a significant positive impact. The finding of export potential reveals a high concentration of export with existence of large potential for exports across the globe. For instance, many developing countries in Asia, Africa and America reveal high potential for Russian exports.

The findings urge Russian Federation to diversify its export markets by targeting potential export markets. Many emerging developing countries are witnessing a high potential for Russian exports, therefore attempts should be taken to diversify toward them. The expansion of existing transportation facilities along with development of cargo trade can be important policy instrument to realize objective of export diversification.

This study is the first comprehensive analysis that employs augmented gravity model to explore potential export markets for Russian Federation by using panel data of 108 global trading partners from 2000 to 2020. This finding of this study provides a framework of export diversification toward potential markets across the globe.

Any country including India which has registered remarkable growth has done so by participating in the economic integration process led by global and regional trade liberalization. India has an emerging web of cooperation with East Asian countries, especially Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) through the ASEAN–India dialogue process, the bilateral free trade agreement with Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand and subregional initiatives such as the Mekong–Ganga Cooperation and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC; Yong 2005).

India's free trade agreements and regional trade agreements with countries in this region have not been models of success in their implementation even when there were benefits. The main idea of the formal trade negotiation was to enhance ASEAN-India partnership, specifically in the economic arena. However, India's position in ASEAN's external trade and investment flows has not yet experienced any special momentum. The two-way trade between India and ASEAN is tilted toward ASEAN with the trade gap expanding rapidly.

Thus, to understand India's trade with ASEAN, the chapter would examine India's trade prospects with the ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, and Vietnam) particularly in merchandise trade. This chapter would identify new products that India can export to the ASEAN, which will increase its share in ASEAN's market. In order to achieve this, the chapter seeks to discuss the detailed microanalysis at HS 6-digit level to capture the trade creation effects based on lower unit value items for estimating product-specific potential exports and imports to/from ASEAN.

World trade has been increasing rapidly and much faster than world output. This study analyzes the trade structures of major dynamic East Asian countries as well as regional subgroups such as ASEAN members and Northeast Asian countries. Emphasis will be on the complementarities that would enhance integration among them through international trade. In addition, potential trade levels for each combination of East Asian countries are estimated by applying the gravity model of trade to the trade flows of21 APEC members, as a reference group. It is estimated to have significant potentiality by regional subgroup, ASEAN or Northeast Asia, and not between the two regional subgroups. However, the potential integration between East Asian countries in different regional subgroups is more significant by considering complementarities in trade compared with the results from the basic gravity model. To enhance economic cooperation between East Asian countries, expanding relationships such as inter-industry trade in natural resources trade and industrial goods between the regional subgroups needs to occur. They should also utilize complementary relationships from intra-industry trade in industrial goods such as electric and electronic equipment, related parts and accessories. And they should focus on the implementation of trade facilitation measures based on global standards.

The purpose of this paper is to explore the trade and investment potential under the ambit of sub‐regional cooperation comprising the four contiguous countries of Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar (BCIM).

The study addressed both intra‐regional and intra‐industrial trade, applying a dynamic gravity model of bilateral trade flows by product group of BEC's 1‐digit product classification, to set a panel data for the period of 1992‐2009.

The analysis reveals that higher trade transaction costs and tariff between each pair of countries reduce the trade flow. One of the major findings of the paper is that a large part of BCIM's trade has remained unrealized and the trade transaction cost is one of the major trading barriers prohibiting the growth of BCIM intra‐regional trade. The paper concludes that liberalization of non‐policy barriers will spur BCIM's trade, particularly in a time of ongoing global economic and financial crisis.

The study reinforces that improvement in infrastructure that leads to less trade transportation costs should be a necessary step in order to realize BCIM's trade potential. The paper concludes that liberalization of non‐policy barriers will spur BCIM's trade and economic cooperation, particularly in time of ongoing global economic and financial crisis.

This paper is the first‐ever attempt to estimate the trade potential of BCIM countries using dynamic gravity model.

The main purpose of this paper is to identify the major determining factors of Bangladesh trade and to investigate whether the gravity model correctly explains Bangladesh's trade patterns and then estimate the global trade potential of Bangladesh using an augmented gravity model.

Based on a panel data, a dynamic gravity model has used to estimate Bangladesh's trade potential with her major trading partners.

One of the major findings of the paper is that a large part of Bangladesh's potential trade has remained unrealized. The estimated results indicate Bangladesh tends to trade more with larger economies in general and for import developing economies in particular. The rising trade transaction cost is one of the major trading barriers causing high unrealization of trade potential in Bangladesh.

The paper concludes that liberalization of non‐policy barriers will spur Bangladesh's trade, particularly in time of ongoing global economic and financial crisis. Improvement in infrastructure that leads to reduce trade transportation costs should be a necessary step in order to unleash Bangladesh's trade potential.

This paper is the first‐ever attempt to estimate the trade potential of Bangladesh using dynamic gravity model in the pre‐ and post‐global economic and financial crisis period.

This paper aims to identify Thailand’s realistic export opportunities (REOs) in the ASEAN+3 countries (i.e. ASEAN, Greater China, Japan and South Korea), which together constitute an economically dynamic region and a strategic export destination for Thailand. Furthermore, the paper seeks to determine the extent to which Thailand already has a share in ASEAN+3 countries and where new opportunities lie. This allows the formulation of appropriate export promotion strategies for Thailand.

The methodology used is a decision support model (DSM) which uses an extensive data-filtering system to systematically screen and eliminate less-promising product–country combinations to ultimately reveal high-potential REOs. Product–country combinations are screened on the basis of country risk; macro-economic country performance; market potential in terms of import growth and import market size; and market access conditions, including market concentration and the existence of trade barriers. The thus narrowed-down REOs are categorised according to Thailand’s relative market share in, and the characteristics of, the identified import markets.

The study reveals that the ASEAN+3 countries account for about 40 per cent of the total potential export value of Thailand’s REOs in the world, with China leading the way (12.45 per cent), followed by Japan (8.56 per cent) and South Korea (6.23 per cent). However, Thailand has a relatively small or intermediately small market share in the majority of these REOs, pointing to the need for more offensive and exploratory export promotion strategies.

The ASEAN+3 countries – given that they are an abundant source of REOs for Thailand and are in Thailand’s “backyard” – should receive more focused attention and resources in government export promotion efforts. The recent launch of the ASEAN Economic Community and the proposed establishment of an East Asia Free Trade Area lend weight to the idea of Thailand adopting a strong regional focus in its export activities.

The insights derived from the study are valuable for export promotion officials, industry representatives and practising exporters alike, as they constitute an easy-to-digest snapshot of high-potential REOs for Thailand in the ASEAN+3 region. This makes for more efficient planning and prioritising of export development activities, and a more streamlined approach to resource allocation.

Export promotion shows diminishing returns and requires sustainable strategies and interventions. The value in this paper lies in its description of an innovative market selection tool, the DSM, which is able to process and filter high volumes of information and arrive at a shortlist of high-potential REOs for Thailand in the ASEAN+3 countries. The paper represents a concise case study of the DSM in practice, which should be of particular interest to export promotion agencies, industry associations and both new and more established exporting countries.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the potentials and barriers to trade in the Malaysia–Chile partnership.

This paper estimates two-way export potentials from an augmented three-dimensional panel gravity model of bilateral trade between Malaysia and the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region, spanning the 1990–2014 period. Utilizing interviews with government officials and industry experts in Malaysia and Chile, this paper also provides insights into market access issues.

The empirical findings of this study suggest that Malaysia has trade potential in Chile, but Chile is “overtrading” with Malaysia. By major products traded, both countries are found to be “overtrading,” as the export basket remains concentrated in this partnership. Through the interviews, fewer restrictions are reported by the various stakeholders, as the extent of trade engagement remains somewhat low. The main challenge identified within specific sectors in both the countries relates mainly to procedures established to secure compliance with labeling regulations for food products.

The sectoral findings reveal that there is indeed scope for expanding exports beyond the current major products traded, particularly in base metal and scientific and measuring equipment from the Malaysia and Chile perspectives, respectively. Thus, product diversification matters to intensify trade cooperation between the two countries. Non-tariff measures need to be streamlined by both parties to ensure further product diversification to food trade, particularly for Chile.

The limited literature on cross-regional trade within the broader framework of Southeast Asia and LAC only support the fact that potentials do exist but do not appear to provide much research evidence. Empirically, this paper will add to the existing literature on the potentials that hold in the Malaysia–Chile partnership. Further, a lack of adequate information remains on market access and other barriers in both the nations to facilitate decisions on trade opportunities. The findings of the study fill that vacuum of information pertaining to market access and trade facilitation through interviews with various stakeholders in Malaysia and Chile.

The gravity theory of trade explains the potential for trade between nations, but its application to trade in halal food has been questioned by previous studies. This study aims to investigate this issue and the role of trading partners’ economic strength and their distance from one another to identify Malaysia’s potential to export food to key halal markets.

The gravity theory of trade was used to examine Malaysia’s top 10 food exports to key halal markets from 2000–2017. The gravity panels were estimated using the Hausman-Taylor modelling technique to control for endogeneity within the model.

The application of the gravity theory of trade to a halal market context provides mixed results. Although the high economic strength (gross domestic product) of the trading partners enhances halal trade, the distance between the partners does not affect the volume of halal food exports. Moreover, the study identifies Malaysia’s potential to export only a few food commodities to key halal markets.

This study challenges the applicability of the gravity theory of trade to the halal food market. The study extends the model with additional controls for behavioural aspects and applies it to commodity-specific segregated trade in halal food. The findings underscore the need to extend the theory beyond its current focus when explaining trade opportunities in halal markets.

The outbreak of the novel COVID-19 virus has spread throughout the world, causing unprecedented disruption to not only China's agricultural trade but also the world's agricultural trade at large. This paper attempts to provide a preliminary analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on China's agricultural importing and exporting from both short- and long-term perspectives.

This study seeks to analyze how the outbreak of COVID-19 could potentially impact China's agricultural trade. With respect to exports, the authors have pinpointed major disruptive factors arising from the pandemic which have affected China's agricultural exports in both the short and long term; in doing so, we employ scenario analysis which simulates potential long-term effects. With regard to imports, possible impacts of the pandemic regarding the prospects of food availability in the world market are investigated. Using scenario analysis, the authors estimate the potential change in China's food market—especially meat import growth—in light of the implementation of the newly signed Sino-US Economic and Trade Agreement (SUETA).

The results show that China's agricultural exports have been negatively impacted in the short-term, mostly due to the disruption of the supply chain. In the long term, dampened external demand and potential imposition of non-tariff trade barriers (NTBs) will exert more profound and lasting negative effects on China's agricultural export trade. On the other hand, despite panic buying and embargoing policies from some exporting and importing countries, the world food availability and China's food import demand are still optimistic. The simulation results indicate that China's import of pork products, in light of COVID-19 and the implementation of SUETA, would most likely see a sizable climb in quantity, but a lesser climb in terms of value.

Agricultural trade in China has been a focal-point of attention in recent years, with new challenges slowing exports and increasing dependence on imports for food security. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic adds significant uncertainty to agricultural trade, giving rise to serious concerns regarding its potential impact. By exploring the impact of the unprecedented pandemic on China's agricultural trade, this study should contribute to a better understanding of the still-evolving pandemic and shed light on pertinent policy implications.