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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 8 May 2024

Behzad Maleki Vishkaei and Pietro De Giovanni

This paper aims to use Bayesian network (BN) methodology complemented by machine learning (ML) and what-if analysis to investigate the impact of digital technologies (DT) on…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to use Bayesian network (BN) methodology complemented by machine learning (ML) and what-if analysis to investigate the impact of digital technologies (DT) on logistics service quality (LSQ), employing the service quality (SERVQUAL) framework.

Design/methodology/approach

Using a sample of 244 Italian firms, this study estimates the probability distributions associated with both DT and SERVQUAL logistics, as well as their interrelationships. Additionally, BN technique enables the application of ML techniques to uncover hidden relationships, as well as a series of what-if analyses to extract more knowledge.

Findings

The results show that the average probability of firms investing in DT for analytics (DTA) is higher than that of investing inDT for immersive experiences (DTIE). Furthermore, adopting both offers only a moderate likelihood of successfully implementing SERVQUAL logistics. Additionally, certain technologies may not directly influence some SERVQUAL dimensions. The application of ML reveals hidden relationships among technologies, enhancing the predictions of SERVQUAL logistics. Finally, what-if analyses provide further insights to guide decision-making processes aimed at enhancing SERVQUAL logistics dimensions through DTA and DTIE.

Originality/value

This research delves into the influence of DTIE and DTA on SERVQUAL logistics, thereby filling a gap in the existing literature in which no study has explored the intricate relationships between these technologies and SERVQUAL dimensions. Methodologically, we pioneer the integration of BN with ML techniques and what-if analysis, thus exploring innovative techniques to be used in logistics and supply-chain studies.

Details

International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0960-0035

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 13 February 2024

Felipa de Mello-Sampayo

This survey explores the application of real options theory to the field of health economics. The integration of options theory offers a valuable framework to address these…

Abstract

Purpose

This survey explores the application of real options theory to the field of health economics. The integration of options theory offers a valuable framework to address these challenges, providing insights into healthcare investments, policy analysis and patient care pathways.

Design/methodology/approach

This research employs the real options theory, a financial concept, to delve into health economics challenges. Through a systematic approach, three distinct models rooted in this theory are crafted and analyzed. Firstly, the study examines the value of investing in emerging health technology, factoring in future advantages, associated costs and unpredictability. The second model is patient-centric, evaluating the choice between immediate treatment switch and waiting for more clarity, while also weighing the associated risks. Lastly, the research assesses pandemic-related government policies, emphasizing the importance of delaying decisions in the face of uncertainties, thereby promoting data-driven policymaking.

Findings

Three different real options models are presented in this study to illustrate their applicability and value in aiding decision-makers. (1) The first evaluates investments in new technology, analyzing future benefits, discount rates and benefit volatility to determine investment value. (2) In the second model, a patient has the option of switching treatments now or waiting for more information before optimally switching treatments. However, waiting has its risks, such as disease progression. By modeling the potential benefits and risks of both options, and factoring in the time value, this model aids doctors and patients in making informed decisions based on a quantified assessment of potential outcomes. (3) The third model concerns pandemic policy: governments can end or prolong lockdowns. While awaiting more data on the virus might lead to economic and societal strain, the model emphasizes the economic value of deferring decisions under uncertainty.

Practical implications

This research provides a quantified perspective on various decisions in healthcare, from investments in new technology to treatment choices for patients to government decisions regarding pandemics. By applying real options theory, stakeholders can make more evidence-driven decisions.

Social implications

Decisions about patient care pathways and pandemic policies have direct societal implications. For instance, choices regarding the prolongation or ending of lockdowns can lead to economic and societal strain.

Originality/value

The originality of this study lies in its application of real options theory, a concept from finance, to the realm of health economics, offering novel insights and analytical tools for decision-makers in the healthcare sector.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 25 March 2024

Florian Follert and Werner Gleißner

From the buying club’s perspective, the transfer of a player can be interpreted as an investment from which the club expects uncertain future benefits. This paper aims to develop…

1029

Abstract

Purpose

From the buying club’s perspective, the transfer of a player can be interpreted as an investment from which the club expects uncertain future benefits. This paper aims to develop a decision-oriented approach for the valuation of football players that could theoretically help clubs determine the subjective value of investing in a player to assess its potential economic advantage.

Design/methodology/approach

We build on a semi-investment-theoretical risk-value model and elaborate an approach that can be applied in imperfect markets under uncertainty. Furthermore, we illustrate the valuation process with a numerical example based on fictitious data. Due to this explicitly intended decision support, our approach differs fundamentally from a large part of the literature, which is empirically based and attempts to explain observable figures through various influencing factors.

Findings

We propose a semi-investment-theoretical valuation approach that is based on a two-step model, namely, a first valuation at the club level and a final calculation to determine the decision value for an individual player. In contrast to the previous literature, we do not rely on an econometric framework that attempts to explain observable past variables but rather present a general, forward-looking decision model that can support managers in their investment decisions.

Originality/value

This approach is the first to show managers how to make an economically rational investment decision by determining the maximum payable price. Nevertheless, there is no normative requirement for the decision-maker. The club will obviously have to supplement the calculus with nonfinancial objectives. Overall, our paper can constitute a first step toward decision-oriented player valuation and for theoretical comparison with practical investment decisions in football clubs, which obviously take into account other specific sports team decisions.

Details

Management Decision, vol. 62 no. 13
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0025-1747

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 14 May 2024

Rui Jia, Zhimin Shuai, Tong Guo, Qian Lu, Xuesong He and Chunlin Hua

This study aims to analyze the influence of farmers’ degree of participation in collective action on their adoption decisions and waiting time regarding soil and water…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to analyze the influence of farmers’ degree of participation in collective action on their adoption decisions and waiting time regarding soil and water conservation (SWC) measures.

Design/methodology/approach

The Probit model and Generalized Propensity Score Match method are used to assess the effect of the degree of participation in collective action on farmers’ adoption decisions and waiting time for implementing SWC measures.

Findings

The findings reveal that farmers’ engagement in collective action positively influences the decision-making process regarding terrace construction, water-saving irrigation and afforestation measures. However, it does not significantly impact the decision-making process for plastic film and ridge-furrow tillage practices. Notably, collective action has the strongest influence on farmers’ adoption decisions regarding water-saving irrigation technology, with a relatively smaller influence on the adoption of afforestation and terrace measures. Moreover, the results suggest that participating in collective action effectively reduces the waiting time for terrace construction and expedites the adoption of afforestation and water-saving irrigation technology. Specifically, collective action has a significantly negative effect on the waiting time for terrace construction, followed by water-saving irrigation technology and afforestation measures.

Practical implications

The results of this study underscore the significance of fostering mutual assistance and cooperation mechanisms among farmers, as they can pave the way for raising funds and labor, cultivating elite farmers, attracting skilled labor to rural areas, enhancing the adoption rate and expediting the implementation of terraces, water-saving irrigation technology and afforestation measures.

Originality/value

Drawing on an evaluation of farmers’ degree of participation in collective action, this paper investigates the effect of participation on their SWC adoption decisions and waiting times, thereby offering theoretical and practical insights into soil erosion control in the Loess Plateau.

Details

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-8692

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 24 January 2023

Neha Yadav, Sanjeev Verma and Rekha Chikhalkar

This paper aims to examine the impact of online reviews on behavioral intentions via perceived risk. Perceived risk is both analytical and emotional. Stimulus–organism–response…

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the impact of online reviews on behavioral intentions via perceived risk. Perceived risk is both analytical and emotional. Stimulus–organism–response (S–O–R) framework guided this study to explore the interaction between online reviews, perceived risk and behavioral intentions.

Design/methodology/approach

The conceptual model proposed in this research has been validated using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and structural equation modeling to assess the measurement model and the validity of the scale, based on primary responses collected from 473 travelers.

Findings

Findings of this study suggest the role of online consumer reviews in reducing the perceived risk associated with experience dominant services like tourism. Process model test proves the mediating role of perceived risk between online reviews and behavioral intentions. Results indicate the significance of online review in lowering the perceived risk leading to positive behavioral intentions.

Practical implications

Destination marketing organizations (DMOs) should understand the role of online reviews in effectively reducing risk and uncertainty, thereby influencing behavioral intentions.

Originality/value

This paper is unique in attempting to empirically examine the mediating role of perceived risk between online reviews and behavioral intentions. The study is a forerunner in using S–O–R framework to test the interaction between online review, perceived risk and behavioral intention.

Details

Journal of Tourism Futures, vol. 10 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2055-5911

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 24 May 2024

Hyun Soo Doh and Yiyao Wang

We develop a credit-risk model to study the informational role of investment in an economy susceptible to large liquidity shocks. Firms' investment decisions carry information…

Abstract

We develop a credit-risk model to study the informational role of investment in an economy susceptible to large liquidity shocks. Firms' investment decisions carry information about their asset quality, thereby mitigating informational frictions when firms enter bankruptcy. An increase in aggregate investment can reduce the informational value of investment, depressing firms' recovery values. Therefore, policies boosting investment can decrease debt and firm values by reducing the informational value of investment. The presence of debt overhang may enhance firm value by making firms' investment decisions more informative. We present suggestive empirical evidence consistent with model predictions on the relation between firms' investments and recovery rates.

Details

Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies: 선물연구, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1229-988X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 9 June 2023

Marco Santorsola, Rocco Caferra and Andrea Morone

Expanding on the real-world financial market framework and considering the current market turmoil, with cryptocurrencies (where contracts for difference (CFDs) are extremely…

Abstract

Purpose

Expanding on the real-world financial market framework and considering the current market turmoil, with cryptocurrencies (where contracts for difference (CFDs) are extremely common) (Hasso et al., 2019) displaying unprecedented volatility, the authors aim to test in an online laboratory setting whether displaying a risk warning message is truly effective in reducing the level of risk taken and whether the placement of this method makes a difference.

Design/methodology/approach

To explore the impact of risk disclosure framing on risk-taking behavior, the authors conducted an online pair-wise lottery choice experiment. In addition to manipulating risk awareness through the presence or absence of risk warning messages of varying intensity, the authors also considered dynamic inconsistency, cognitive ability and questionnaire-based financial risk tolerance (FRT) scores. The authors aimed to identify potential relationships between these variables and experimentally elicited risk aversion. The authors' study offers valuable insights into the complex nature of risky decision-making and sheds light on the importance of considering dynamic inconsistency in addition to risk awareness and aversion.

Findings

The authors' results provide statistical evidence for the efficacy of informative and very salient messages in mitigating risky decision, hinting at several policy implications. The authors also provide some statistical evidence in support of the relationship between cognitive abilities and risk preferences. The authors detect that individual with low cognitive abilities scores display great risk aversion.

Originality/value

This study investigates the impact of risk warning messages on investment decisions in an online laboratory setting – a unique approach. However, the authors go beyond this and also examine the potential influence of dynamic inconsistency on decision-making, adding further value to the literature on this topic. To ensure a comprehensive understanding of the participants, the authors collect data on cognitive ability and FRT using questionnaires. This study provides a simple and cost-effective framework that can be easily replicated in future research – a valuable contribution to the field.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 3 October 2023

Miklesh Prasad Yadav, Shruti Ashok, Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, Deepika Dhingra, Nandita Mishra and Nidhi Malhotra

This paper aims to examine the comovement among green bonds, energy commodities and stock market to determine the advantages of adding green bonds to a diversified portfolio.

1034

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the comovement among green bonds, energy commodities and stock market to determine the advantages of adding green bonds to a diversified portfolio.

Design/methodology/approach

Generic 1 Natural Gas and Energy Select SPDR Fund are used as proxies to measure energy commodities, bonds index of S&P Dow Jones and Bloomberg Barclays MSCI are used to represent green bonds and the New York Stock Exchange is considered to measure the stock market. Granger causality test, wavelet analysis and network analysis are applied to daily price for the select markets from August 26, 2014, to March 30, 2021.

Findings

Results from the Granger causality test indicate no causality between any pair of variables, while cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence analysis confirm strong coherence at a high scale during the pandemic, validating comovement among the three asset classes. In addition, network analysis further corroborates this connectedness, implying a strong association of the stock market with the energy commodity market.

Originality/value

This study offers new evidence of the temporal association among the US stock market, energy commodities and green bonds during the COVID-19 crisis. It presents a novel approach that measures and evaluates comovement among the constituent series, simultaneously using both wavelet and network analysis.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 41 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 29 May 2024

Mohanad Rezeq, Tarik Aouam and Frederik Gailly

Authorities have set up numerous security checkpoints during times of armed conflict to control the flow of commercial and humanitarian trucks into and out of areas of conflict…

Abstract

Purpose

Authorities have set up numerous security checkpoints during times of armed conflict to control the flow of commercial and humanitarian trucks into and out of areas of conflict. These security checkpoints have become highly utilized because of the complex security procedures and increased truck traffic, which significantly slow the delivery of relief aid. This paper aims to improve the process at security checkpoints by redesigning the current process to reduce processing time and relieve congestion at checkpoint entrance gates.

Design/methodology/approach

A decision-support tool (clearing function distribution model [CFDM]) is used to minimize the effects of security checkpoint congestion on the entire humanitarian supply network using a hybrid simulation-optimization approach. By using a business process simulation, the current and reengineered processes are both simulated, and the simulation output was used to estimate the clearing function (capacity as a function of the workload). For both the AS-IS and TO-BE models, key performance indicators such as distribution costs, backordering and process cycle time were used to compare the results of the CFDM tool. For this, the Kerem Abu Salem security checkpoint south of Gaza was used as a case study.

Findings

The comparison results demonstrate that the CFDM tool performs better when the output of the TO-BE clearing function is used.

Originality/value

The efforts will contribute to improving the planning of any humanitarian network experiencing congestion at security checkpoints by minimizing the impact of congestion on the delivery lead time of relief aid to the final destination.

Details

Journal of Humanitarian Logistics and Supply Chain Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2042-6747

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 20 May 2024

Sharneet Singh Jagirdar and Pradeep Kumar Gupta

The present study reviews the literature on the history and evolution of investment strategies in the stock market for the period from 1900 to 2022. Conflicts and relationships…

Abstract

Purpose

The present study reviews the literature on the history and evolution of investment strategies in the stock market for the period from 1900 to 2022. Conflicts and relationships arising from such diverse seminal studies have been identified to address the research gaps.

Design/methodology/approach

The studies for this review were identified and screened from electronic databases to compile a comprehensive list of 200 relevant studies for inclusion in this review and summarized for the cognizance of researchers.

Findings

The study finds a coherence to complex theoretical documentation of more than a century of evolution on investment strategy in stock markets, capturing the characteristics of time with a chronological study of events.

Research limitations/implications

There were complications in locating unpublished studies leading to biases like publication bias, the reluctance of editors to publish studies, which do not reveal statistically significant differences, and English language bias.

Practical implications

Practitioners can refine investment strategies by incorporating behavioral finance insights and recognizing the influence of psychological biases. Strategies span value, growth, contrarian, or momentum indicators. Mitigating overconfidence bias supports effective risk management. Social media sentiment analysis facilitates real-time decision-making. Adapting to evolving market liquidity curbs volatility risks. Identifying biases guides investor education initiatives.

Originality/value

This paper is an original attempt to pictorially depict the seminal works in stock market investment strategies of more than a hundred years.

Details

China Accounting and Finance Review, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1029-807X

Keywords

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