Search results

This research presents machine learning models for predicting international tourist arrivals in Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic using multisource Internet data.

To develop the prediction models, this research utilizes multisource Internet data from TripAdvisor travel forum and Google Trends. Temporal factors, posts and comments, search queries index and previous tourist arrivals records are set as predictors. Four sets of predictors and three distinct data compositions were utilized for training the machine learning models, namely artificial neural networks (ANNs), support vector regression (SVR) and random forest (RF). To evaluate the models, this research uses three accuracy metrics, namely root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

Prediction models trained using multisource Internet data predictors have better accuracy than those trained using single-source Internet data or other predictors. In addition, using more training sets that cover the phenomenon of interest, such as COVID-19, will enhance the prediction model's learning process and accuracy. The experiments show that the RF models have better prediction accuracy than the ANN and SVR models.

First, this study pioneers the practice of a multisource Internet data approach in predicting tourist arrivals amid the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic. Second, the use of multisource Internet data to improve prediction performance is validated with real empirical data. Finally, this is one of the few papers to provide perspectives on the current dynamics of Indonesia's tourism demand.

Radical changes in consumer habits induced by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic suggest that the usual demand forecasting techniques based on historical series are questionable. This is particularly true for hospitality demand, which has been dramatically affected by the pandemic. Accordingly, we investigate the suitability of tourists’ activity on Twitter as a predictor of hospitality demand in the Way of Saint James – an important pilgrimage tourism destination.

This study compares the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) time-series model with that of the SARIMA with an exogenous variables (SARIMAX) model to forecast hotel tourism demand. For this, 110,456 tweets posted on Twitter between January 2018 and September 2022 are used as exogenous variables.

The results confirm that the predictions of traditional time-series models for tourist demand can be significantly improved by including tourist activity on Twitter. Twitter data could be an effective tool for improving the forecasting accuracy of tourism demand in real-time, which has relevant implications for tourism management. This study also provides a better understanding of tourists’ digital footprints in pilgrimage tourism.

This study contributes to the scarce literature on the digitalisation of pilgrimage tourism and forecasting hotel demand using a new methodological framework based on Twitter user-generated content. This can enable hospitality industry practitioners to convert social media data into relevant information for hospitality management.

2019冠狀病毒病引致消費者習慣有根本的改變; 這些改變顯示，根據歷史序列而運作的慣常需求預測技巧未必是正確的。這不確性尤以受到大流行極大影響的酒店服務需求為甚。因此，我們擬探討、若把在推特網站上的旅遊活動視為聖雅各之路 (一個重要的朝聖旅遊聖地) 酒店服務需求的預測器，這會否是合適的呢?

本研究比較 SARIMA 時間序列模型與附有外生變數 (SARIMAX)模型兩者在預測旅遊及酒店服務需求方面的表現。為此，研究人員收集在推特網站上發佈的資訊，作為外生變數進行研究。這個樣本涵蓋於2018年1月至2022年9月期間110,456個發佈資訊。

研究結果確認了傳統的時間序列模型，若涵蓋推特網站上的旅遊活動，則其對旅遊需求方面的預測會得到顯著的改善。推特網站的數據，就改善預測實時旅遊需求的準確度，或許可成為有效的工具; 而這發現對旅遊管理會有一定的意義。本研究亦讓我們進一步瞭解朝聖旅遊方面旅客的數碼足跡。

現存文獻甚少探討朝聖旅遊的數字化，而本研究不但在這方面充實了有關的文獻，還使用了一個根據推特網站上使用者原創內容嶄新的方法框架，進行分析和探討。這會幫助酒店從業人員把社交媒體數據轉變為可供酒店管理之用的合宜資訊。

This study aims to explore the impact of architecture on digital communication mediums, focusing on how social media shapes the public perception and discussion of architectural spaces. It specifically examines the case of the Basilica Cistern/Istanbul, analysing social media interactions post-restoration.

Using newspaper archive scanning and survey technique, this study observed public content on Instagram focusing on the post-restoration period of the Basilica Cistern. 406 (283 valid) people who visited the Cistern and shared their experiences on Instagram between August 2022 and January 2023 participated in a survey. The analysis utilized Python for advanced correlation studies, enabling an in-depth exploration of the interplay between architectural features and social media sharing behaviours.

The analysis revealed that historical significance, lighting elements, role as a photographic backdrop significantly influenced sharing behaviours. Correlations were found between specific spatial features of the cistern and various sharing motivations, such as communication with people, personal gain, and popularity. The study highlights a diverse spectrum of motivations among users, emphasizing the relationship between these motivations and spatial features.

This study underscores the necessity for further inquiry into the intricate dynamics among digital communication, architectural spaces, and user motivations. Limitations include potential challenges in gathering data from social media due to concerns of cyber fraud and the misuse of hashtags.

This research offers novel insights into the interplay between digital communication and architecture. It underscores the potential of digital platforms as valuable data sources for architectural theorizing and practice, particularly in understanding how restorations and architectural changes are perceived and discussed in the digital space.

To evaluate some of the current discussions about the possible impacts of social networks on the development of gastronomy in the Republic of Serbia. There could be either positive and/or negative impacts and this viewpoint provides some reflection on what the future might hold for some if not many tourism destinations in Serbia and the region when the tourism industry restarts after the pandemic of Covid-19 virus.

The research was conducted in December 2021, on a total of 244 respondents in three cities in Serbia. SPSS software was used, version 26.00, and the obtained data were analyzed by descriptive statistics. Then, to determine the structure of the questionnaire and the percentage of variance, an exploratory factor analysis was performed together with a higher order factor analysis, in order to obtain the desired number of factors. Subsequently, the authors used multiple regression analysis to confirm the significance of the predictors. The goal of the research was to determine whether, and to what extent, social networks can predict the choice of restaurants and gastronomic offers in Serbia. Serbian gastronomy has a great influence on the development of tourism, so this research has a wide scientific and practical contribution.

This paper provides a context and viewpoint on the possible implications of impacts of social networks on the development of gastronomy in the Republic of Serbia in the future. It has been proven that social networks can have an impact on the development of gastronomy and tourism itself.

To examine the impact of social networks on the development of gastronomy, the authors conducted a survey online due to the current Covid-19 pandemic. The limitation of this research was precisely that the authors did not have the opportunity to conduct the research live due to the Covid-19 pandemic. It is recommended that such surveys be conducted live in direct contact with respondents in the future in order to obtain a larger sample with fully completed questionnaires.

The importance of social networks is increasingly a topic of study of world research, especially when it comes to gastronomy, which is becoming increasingly important as an activity in the tourism industry. The results indicate that the greatest importance in predicting the choice of restaurants and gastronomic offers has social networks and marketing. The importance of the work is reflected in the recognition of the importance of social networks, in order to better place Serbian gastronomy.

This paper offers a synthesis of views that fosters an understanding of the possibility of impacts of social networks on the development of gastronomy in the Republic of Serbia before and after the Covid-19 pandemic.

The viewpoint proffered in this paper provides scope for a rapid evaluation of the current status of gastronomy tourism in Serbia which can help practitioners and researchers in the faster and better development of gastronomy and tourism.

The purpose of this study was to uncover representative emergent areas and to examine the research area of marketing, tourism and big data (BD) to assess how these thematic areas have developed over a 27-year time period from 1996 to 2022. This study analyzed 1,152 studies to identify the principal thematic areas and emergent topics, principal theories used, predominant forms of analysis and the most productive authors in terms of research.

The articles for this research were all selected from the Web of Science database. A systematic and quantitative literature review was performed. This study used SciMAT software to extract indicators. Specifically, this study analyzed productivity and produced a science map.

The findings suggest that interest in this area has increased gradually. The outputs also reveal the innovative effort of industry in new technologies for developing models for tourism marketing. Ten research areas were identified: “destination marketing,” “mobility patterns,” “co-creation,” “gastronomy,” “sustainability,” “tourist behavior,” “market segmentation,” “artificial neural networks,” “pricing” and “tourist satisfaction.”

This work is unique in proposing an agenda for future research into tourism marketing research with new technologies such as BD and artificial intelligence techniques. In addition, the results presented here fill the current gap in the research since while there have been literature reviews covering tourism with BD or marketing, these areas have not been studied as a whole.

El objetivo de esta investigación fue descubrir nichos representativos de áreas emergentes y examinar el área de Marketing, Turismo y Big Data, evaluando cómo han evolucionado estas áreas temáticas durante un período de 27 años desde 1996–2022. Analizamos 1.152 investigaciones para identificar las principales áreas temáticas y temas emergentes, las principales teorías utilizadas, las formas de análisis predominantes y los autores más productivos en términos de investigación.

Todos los artículos para esta investigación fueron seleccionados de la base de datos Web of Science. Realizamos una revisión sistemática y cuantitativa de la literatura. Utilizamos el software SciMAT para extraer indicadores. Específicamente, analizamos la productividad y elaboramos un mapeo científico.

Los hallazgos sugieren que el interés en esta área ha aumentado gradualmente. Los resultados también revelan el esfuerzo innovador de la industria en nuevas tecnologías para desarrollar modelos de marketing turístico. Se identificaron diez áreas de investigación (“marketing de destinos”, “patrones de movilidad”, “co-creación”, “gastronomía”, “sostenibilidad”, “comportamiento turístico”, “segmentación de mercado”, “redes neuronales artificiales”, “precios”, y “satisfacción del turista”).

Este trabajo es único al proponer una agenda para futuras investigaciones en investigación de Marketing Turístico con nuevas tecnologías como Big Data y técnicas de Inteligencia Artificial. Además, los resultados presentados aquí llenan el vacío actual en la investigación ya que si bien se han realizado revisiones de literatura que cubren Turismo con Big Data o Marketing, estas áreas no se han estudiado como un conjunto.

这一特定研究领域的目标是发现具有代表性的新兴领域, 并考察市场营销、旅游和大数据研究领域, 以评估这些主题领域在1996年至2022年的27年间是如何发展的。我们分析了1152项研究, 以确定主要专题领域和新兴主题、使用的主要理论、主要的分析形式以及在研究方面最有成效的作者。

本研究的文章都是从Web of Science数据库中选出的。我们进行了系统化的定量文献审查, 并使用SciMAT软件来提取指标。具体来说, 我们分析了生产力并制作了一个科学研究地图。

研究结果表明, 人们对这一领域的兴趣已经逐渐增加。本文也揭示了工业界在开发旅游营销模式的新技术方面的创新努力。研究确定了十个研究领域：“目的地营销”、“流动模式”、“共同创造”、“美食”、“可持续性”、“游客行为”、“市场细分”、“人工神经网络”、“定价 “和游客满意度”。

这项研究的独特之处在于提出了未来利用大数据和人工智能技术等新技术进行旅游营销研究的议程。此外, 本文的结果填补了目前的研究空白, 因为虽然有文献综述涉及旅游与大数据或市场营销, 但这些领域还没有被作为一个整体来研究。

Conserving appropriately the culture and heritage of a city through sustainable tourism is a key element for its economic development. Heritage cities generate economic, social and environmental benefits through tourism management. This study aims to intend, in the context of economic sustainability of the territory and promotion, to improve the understanding of the relationship between the sources of information of tourists and their motivations, with satisfaction and future behaviour intentions. For this, a study has been carried out in the Old Town of Cáceres (Spain), a city recognised as a world heritage property by UNESCO.

This study applies a descriptive analysis, based on frequencies. For data collection, a structured questionnaire has been used to identify the opinion of tourists during their visit to the heritage city of Cáceres.

This study demonstrates the existence of a positive relationship between the sources of information and the tourist experience with their future behavioural intentions and satisfaction of their visit. All this in the global context of the destination for sustainable economy and the UN Agenda 2030 for sustainable development. Furthermore, the results of the study suggest that the motivations of tourists are the most important factor in explaining the overall experience and loyalty of tourists to a city.

A limitation of this study is the data set used. The results must be contextualised at the time and place when the questionnaire was conducted.

The proposed model makes it possible to advance future heritage tourism strategies, in terms of planning and communication of the heritage resources of a destination. Tourism heritage institutions should increasingly invest in communication improvements based on new technologies and social media. At the same time, integrated planning with special policies for the sustainable protection of heritage can make important progress in the tourist and cultural development of the destination.

This article tests for the first time within the context of heritage cities in Spain and in the context of a sustainable economy and cultural heritage for destination, the relationship between different sources of site promotion information and future tourist behaviour intentions. It provides original evidence of the value of applying the underlying theory of the proposed model in a world heritage tourist destination.

As a distinctive form of communist heritage tourism, the ideology and government-led form of red tourism warrants an in-depth examination of how tourists consume and perceive it. This study aims to reveal tourists’ perception of red tourism through the lens of destination image.

This study collected 9,819 user-generated photographs within four types of red tourism destinations (RTDs) and used a computer visual and semiotic analysis approach to conduct photograph-based cognitive and affective attributes extraction. Network analysis further visualized the co-relations between cognitive images and affective images. ANOVA analysis compared the differences of the four types of destination images.

Ten dimensions of cognitive image and eight categories of affective image of red tourism were identified. It found that monuments, statues, memorial symbols were the distinctive cognitive features, and admiration was the most dominant emotion. Heterogeneity of destination images was identified among the four types of RTDs.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the study is one of the first to explore tourists’ consumption of red tourism through the lens of destination image, which reveals the inconsistencies between the officially projected images and tourists’ perceived images of red tourism. Using Plutchik’s model, it validates a series of positive and negative emotions contributing to the affective images of red tourism, which expands the findings of emotions within the extant red tourism research. Through combined applications of computer visual and semiotic analysis, ANOVA, network analysis and model visualization, the study provides an important methodological triangulation for photograph-based destination image studies.

红色旅游作为共产主义旅游的独特形式, 游客如何感知这种国家意识形态植入与政府主导型旅游值得深入研究。本研究旨在从目的地意象视角揭示游客红色旅游感知。

本研究收集四种类型的红色旅游地9819张用户生成照片, 利用计算机视觉-情感析法对照片进行认知和情感元素提取。复杂网络分析揭示了认知意象与情感意象之间的关联。方差分析比较了四种红色旅游地意象的差异。

本研究确定了红色旅游认知意象的十个维度和情感意象的八个类别。研究发现, 纪念碑、雕像、纪念符号是其独特的认知意象元素, 钦佩是其最主要的情感，四种类型红色旅游地意象存在差异性。

本文是同类研究中首次从目的地意象视角探索游客对红色旅游地感知, 揭示了红色旅游官方投射意象与游客感知意象之间的差异。利用Plutchik情感之轮模型, 验证了一系列积极和消极情绪构成红色旅游地情感意象, 拓展了红色旅游的情感发现。综合运用计算机视觉-情感分析、方差分析、网络分析和模型可视化等方法, 为基于照片的旅游目的地意象研究提供了一个重要方法。

Como forma distintiva del turismo del patrimonio comunista, la ideología y la forma gubernamental del turismo rojo justifican un examen en profundidad de cómo lo consumen y perciben los turistas. Este estudio pretende revelar la percepción que tienen los turistas del turismo rojo desde la perspectiva de la imagen del destino.

Este estudio recopiló 9.819 fotografías generadas por los usuarios dentro de cuatro tipos de destinos de turismo rojo, y utilizó un enfoque de análisis visual y semiótico por ordenador para llevar a cabo la extracción de atributos cognitivos y afectivos basados en fotografías. El análisis de redes visualizó además las correlaciones entre las imágenes cognitivas y las imágenes afectivas. El análisis ANOVA comparó las diferencias de los cuatro tipos de imágenes de destino.

Se identificaron diez dimensiones de imagen cognitiva y ocho categorías de imagen afectiva del turismo rojo. Se descubrió que los monumentos, las estatuas y los símbolos conmemorativos eran los rasgos cognitivos distintivos, y la admiración la emoción más dominante. Se identificó una heterogeneidad de imágenes de destino entre los cuatro tipos de destinos de turismo rojo.

El estudio es uno de los primeros en explorar el consumo de turismo rojo por parte de los turistas a través de la lente de la imagen del destino, lo que revela las incoherencias entre las imágenes proyectadas oficialmente y las imágenes percibidas por los turistas del turismo rojo. Utilizando el modelo de Plutchik, valida una serie de emociones positivas y negativas que contribuyen a las imágenes afectivas del turismo rojo, lo que amplía los hallazgos sobre las emociones dentro de la investigación existente sobre el turismo rojo. Mediante aplicaciones combinadas de análisis visual y semiótico por ordenador, ANOVA, análisis de redes y visualización de modelos, el estudio proporciona una importante triangulación metodológica para los estudios de la imagen del destino basados en fotografías.

The purpose of this paper is to explore the changes of the scale of urban tourists in mainland China under the impact of COVID-19 and, specifically, the following questions: how did the scale of domestic tourists change nationwide and in the seven geographic regions? What are the differences in the changes among the seven geographic regions? What are the changes in the hot spot areas and spatial clustering of domestic tourists across the country?

Using the data of domestic tourist arrivals in 337 cities in mainland China from 2018 to 2021, this research analyzes the absolute differences and relative differences in the scale of domestic tourists nationwide and in seven geographic divisions with the help of indicators such as range analysis, standard deviation, coefficient of variation and Herfindahl–Hirschman Index and explores the changes in the hot spot areas and spatial concentration degree of the spatial scale of domestic tourists nationwide under the influence of the epidemic using kernel density analysis and spatial auto-correlation analysis.

The absolute differences in all seven geographical divisions continue to increase during 2018–2021. The domestic tourism in southwest China is extremely uneven. Absolute differences in the northwest and northeast regions are relatively small, and the development in attracting domestic tourists is more balanced. Relative differences in southwest China are comparatively large, with the trend of uneven development being obvious. The northeast, northwest and eastern regions of China are small, and the development is more balanced. The popularity of domestic tourism in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, as well as the Yangtze River Delta region, continues to decline and then pick up in 2021. The inland southwest region became a new domestic tourism hot spot in 2021. The size of domestic tourists from 2018 to 2021 in mainland China cities shows a significant positive spatial correlation, and there is a spatial agglomeration phenomenon, but some regional agglomeration types change from 2018 to 2021.

The impact of the epidemic on the number and spatial scale of domestic tourism in China has been clarified, which makes up for the comparison of domestic tourism changes before and after the epidemic. A clear understanding of the changes in the number and spatial scale of domestic tourists in different regions after the epidemic is conducive to the development of domestic tourism revitalization strategies in accordance with the actual situation of each province and promotes the internal circulation of Chinese tourism.

This paper tries to clarify the quantitative scale of domestic tourism in different regions after the epidemic, which is conducive to the development of domestic tourism revitalization strategies in cities in different regions according to regional characteristics and the actual situation of each province and to promote the healthy operation of the internal circulation of tourism in China. This paper also tries to show the changes of domestic tourism market hot spots, agglomeration conditions changes before and after the outbreak and the clarity of tourists’ preference space changes.

Scale of domestic tourists; Absolute difference; Relative difference; Spatial hot spot distribution; Spatial agglomeration change

本文旨在探寻疫情影响下中国大陆城市游客规模演化规律, 具体而言, 疫情影响下, 全国及七大地理分区的国内游客量规模变化如何？七大地理地区的变化有何差异？以及疫情影响下, 全国国内游客空间规模的热点区域和空间集聚程度有何变化？

利用2018-2021年中国大陆337各城市的国内游客量数据, 借助极差、标准差、变异系数、赫芬达尔指等指标分析全国及七大地理分区国内游客规模的绝对差异和相对差异; 借助核密度分析、空间自相关分析等ArcGIS分析工具, 探寻疫情影响下全国国内游客空间规模的热点区域和空间集聚程度的变化情况。

①绝对差异方面, 七大地理分区的绝对差异均持续增大。西南地区的游客量的绝对差异巨大, 国内游发展极不均衡。西北地区、东北地区绝对差异相对较小, 在吸引国内游客方面发展较为均衡。②相对差异方面, 西南地区的国内游发展相对差异较大, 发展不均衡趋势明显; 东北地区、西北地区、华东地区的国内游发展相对差异较小, 发展较为均衡。③热点区域变化方面, 京津冀地区、长三角地区的国内旅游热度持续下降, 在2021年有所回升; 内陆西南地区在2021年成为新的国内游热点区域。④2018年至2021年城市国内游客量规模均呈现出显著的空间正相关的关系, 存在着空间集聚现象, 但部分区域集聚类型在2018到2021年间发生变化。

①理论意义：明晰了疫情对中国国内旅游人次的数量规模和空间规模的影响, 弥补了当前疫情前后国内旅游业变化对比的研究; 阐明了疫情前后中国城市国内游客空间格局的变化, 拓展了研究情景, 丰富了中国旅游业时空变化的相关研究。②实践意义：明晰了疫后不同地区国内旅游人次的数量规模和空间规模变化情况, 以及国内旅游市场热点变化和游客空间偏好变化, 有利于各地区城市对症下药, 制定符合各省份实际情况的国内旅游业振兴策略, 促进中国旅游业内循环。