Search results

In order to accomplish the goals of maintaining an effective supply chain, the firm needs to establish and maintain long-term relationships with its suppliers. Most supply chain problems inherently involve multiple conflicting criteria. Risks in the supply chain are dynamic in nature. While some risks can be either reduced or eliminated, new ones will appear.

This chapter will focus on the development of a mufti-criteria model using meta-goal programming to develop a supplier selection process. The goals of the model include (1) the minimization of the net cost for all items, (2) the minimization of the defective items, and (3) the minimization of late-delivered items.

Purpose: Risk is a multifaceted concept, and its identification requires complex approaches that are often misunderstood. The consequence is that decisions are based on limited perception rather than the full value and meaning of what risk is, as a result, the way it is being tackled is incorrect. The individuals are often limited in their perceptions and ideas and do not embrace the full multifaceted nature of risk. Regulators and individuals want to follow norms and checklists or overuse models, simulations, and templates, thereby reducing responsibility for decision-making. At the same time, the wider use of technology and rules reduces the critical thinking of individuals. We advance the automation process by building robots that follow protocols and forget about the part of risk assessment that cannot be programed. Therefore, with this study, the objective of this study was to discover how people define risk, the influencing factors of risk perception and how they behave toward this perception. The authors also determine how the perception differed with age, gender, marital status, education level and region. The novelty of the research is related to individual risk perception during COVID-19, as this is a new and unknown phenomenon. Methodology: The research is based on the analysis of the self-administered purposely designed questionnaires we distributed across different social media platforms between February and June 2020 in Europe and in some cases was carried out as a interview over communication platforms such as “Skype,” “Zoom” and “Microsoft Teams.” The questionnaire was divided into four parts: Section 1 was designed to collect demographic information from the participants; Section 2 included risk definition statements obtained from literature and a preliminary discussion with peers; Section 3 included risk behavior statements; and Section 4 included statements on risk perception experiences. A five-point Likert Scale was provided, and participants were required to answer along a scale of “1” for “Strongly Agree” to “5” for “Strongly Disagree.” Participants also had the option to elaborate further and provide additional comments in an open-ended box provided at the end of the section. 466 valid responses were received. Thematic analysis was carried out to analyze the interviews and the open-ended questions, while the questionnaire responses were analyzed using various quantitative methods on IBM SPSS (version 23). Findings: The results of the analysis indicate that individuals evaluate the risk before making a decision and view risk as both a loss and opportunity. The study identifies nine factors influencing risk perception. Nevertheless, it must be emphasized that we can continue to develop models and rules, but as long as the risk is not understood, we will never achieve anything.

In seminal work, Den Haan et al. (2007, 2010, 2011) show business loans respond in the opposite direction of what may be intended by monetary policy action in the United States and Canada. Based on various approaches, identification schemes, and samples, we document evidence this loan puzzle is not exclusive to developed economies but is also pervasive in emerging markets. We find business loans generally decline following expansionary monetary policy shocks. A preponderance of statistical and structural evidence indicates important transmissions of this puzzle from the United States to emerging markets.

Recent U.S. Treasury yields have been constrained to some extent by the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates. Therefore, we compare the performance of a standard affine Gaussian dynamic term structure model (DTSM), which ignores the ZLB, to a shadow-rate DTSM, which respects the ZLB. Near the ZLB, we find notable declines in the forecast accuracy of the standard model, while the shadow-rate model forecasts well. However, 10-year yield term premiums are broadly similar across the two models. Finally, in applying the shadow-rate model, we find no gain from estimating a slightly positive lower bound on U.S. yields.

This chapter studies the dynamic responses of the conditional quantiles and their applications in macroeconomics and finance. The authors build a multi-equation autoregressive conditional quantile model and propose a new construction of quantile impulse response functions (QIRFs). The tool set of QIRFs provides detailed distributional evolution of an outcome variable to economic shocks. The authors show the left tail of economic activity is the most responsive to monetary policy and financial shocks. The impacts of the shocks on Growth-at-Risk (the 5% quantile of economic activity) during the Global Financial Crisis are assessed. The authors also examine how the economy responds to a hypothetical financial distress scenario.

The Factor-augmented Error-Correction Model (FECM) generalizes the factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) and the Error-Correction Model (ECM), combining error-correction, cointegration and dynamic factor models. It uses a larger set of variables compared to the ECM and incorporates the long-run information lacking from the FAVAR because of the latter’s specification in differences. In this paper, we review the specification and estimation of the FECM, and illustrate its use for forecasting and structural analysis by means of empirical applications based on Euro Area and US data.

A vector autoregression model estimated on US data before and after 1980 documents systematic differences in the response of short- and long-term interest rates, corporate bond spreads and durable spending to news total factor productivity shocks. Interest rates across the maturity spectrum broadly increase in the pre-1980s and broadly decline in the post-1980s. Corporate bond spreads decline significantly, and durable spending rises significantly in the post-1980 period while the opposite short-run response is observed in the pre-1980 period. Measuring expectations of future monetary policy rates conditional on a news shock suggests that the Federal Reserve has adopted a restrictive stance before the 1980s with the goal of retaining control over inflation while adopting a neutral/accommodative stance in the post-1980 period.

Destination and resort managers have little knowledge regarding the Chinese outbound tourist market, yet its enormous potential cannot be overlooked. Providing services to this often unfamiliar segment can be difficult and may result in poor service delivery which can be detrimental to both enclave resorts and small island destinations, such as Mauritius. This study uses in-depth interviews among key informants from three- to five-star enclave resorts targeting Chinese tourists. The main challenges experienced by the resorts are cultural behavior, language barriers, different food habits, and the need to improve the service facilities and experience. Based on insights from industry practitioners, the study identifies service modifications provided by enclave resorts to provide Chinese tourists with a positive experience.

On its way to develop a smart grid in Indonesia, one key enabler in the early stage of implementation is advanced metering infrastructure (AMI). Thus, Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), an electrical energy utility company owned by the government of the Republic of Indonesia as the only electricity utility company servicing customers from upstream to downstream in Indonesia, has started AMI program at some main cities. With AMI, real-time energy consumption profile, energy meter status and condition, and customer power quality can be acquired. Subsequently, these data collected by AMI can be used for further smart grid implementation by such IT systems and big data analysis. Instead of its function for smart grid backbone, AMI also significantly support smart energy on the city as a part of smart city initiatives. Nevertheless, its implementation requires more investment than the conventional metering system. This investment needs to be evaluated to define whether AMI is feasible and viable or not. This chapter is intended to observe the feasibility of AMI implementation in Indonesia using cost-benefit analysis (CBA). Two schemes were used as study objects, one scheme in which the communication infrastructure was managed by PLN itself, and the other one in which the communication infrastructure was managed by a third party. From the analysis, it appears that both schemes are proven to be feasible.

Food fraud as intentional deception for economic gain relies on a low-tech food value chain, that applies a ‘paper-and-pencil approach’, unable to provide reliable and trusted data about food products, accompanied processes/activities and actors involved. Such approach has created the information asymmetry that leads to erosion of stakeholders and consumers trust, which in turn discourages cooperation within the food chain by damaging its ability to decrease uncertainty and capability to provide authentic, nutritional, accessible and affordable food for all. Lack of holistic approach, focus on stand-alone measures, lack of proactive measures and undermined role of customers have been major factors behind weaknesses of current anti-fraud measures system. Thus, the process of strong and fast digitalisation enabled by the new emerging technology called Industry 4.0 is a way to provide a shift from food fraud detection to efficient prevention. Therefore, the objective of this chapter is to shed light on current challenges and opportunities associated with Industry 4.0 technology enablers' guardian role in food fraud prevention with the hope to inform future researchers, experts and decision-makers about opportunities opened up by transforming to new cyber-physical-social ecosystem, or better to say ‘self-thinking’ food value chain whose foundations are already under development. The systematic literature network analysis is applied to fulfil the stated objective. Digitalisation and Industry 4.0 can be used to develop a system that is cost effective and ensures data integrity and prevents tampering and single point failure through offering fault tolerance, immutability, trust, transparency and full traceability of the stored transaction records to all agri-food value chain partners. In addition, such approach lays a foundation for adopting new business models, strengthening food chain resilience, sustainability and innovation capacity.