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Book part
Publication date: 24 April 2023

Lealand Morin

The time series of the federal funds rate has recently been extended back to 1928, now including several episodes during which interest rates remained near the lower bound of zero

Abstract

The time series of the federal funds rate has recently been extended back to 1928, now including several episodes during which interest rates remained near the lower bound of zero. This series is analyzed, using the method of indirect inference, by applying recent research on bounded time series to estimate a set of bounded parametric diffusion models. This combination uncouples the specification of the bounds from the law of motion. Although Louis Bachelier was the first to use arithmetic Brownian motion to model financial time series, he has often been criticized for this proposal, since the process can take on negative values. Most researchers favor processes such as geometric Brownian motion (GBM), which remains positive. Under this framework, Bachelier's proposal remains valid when specified with bounds and is shown to compare favorably when modeling the federal funds rate.

Details

Essays in Honor of Joon Y. Park: Econometric Methodology in Empirical Applications
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-212-4

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Book part
Publication date: 6 January 2016

Jens H. E. Christensen and Glenn D. Rudebusch

Recent U.S. Treasury yields have been constrained to some extent by the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates. Therefore, we compare the performance of a standard…

Abstract

Recent U.S. Treasury yields have been constrained to some extent by the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates. Therefore, we compare the performance of a standard affine Gaussian dynamic term structure model (DTSM), which ignores the ZLB, to a shadow-rate DTSM, which respects the ZLB. Near the ZLB, we find notable declines in the forecast accuracy of the standard model, while the shadow-rate model forecasts well. However, 10-year yield term premiums are broadly similar across the two models. Finally, in applying the shadow-rate model, we find no gain from estimating a slightly positive lower bound on U.S. yields.

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Dynamic Factor Models
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78560-353-2

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Book part
Publication date: 8 November 2021

Siddhartha Chattopadhyay

Sufficiently persistent rise in nominal interest increases inflation rate in short-run. This short-run comovement of nominal interest rate and inflation rate is known as…

Abstract

Sufficiently persistent rise in nominal interest increases inflation rate in short-run. This short-run comovement of nominal interest rate and inflation rate is known as Neo-Fisherianism. This chapter proposes a policy based on Neo-Fisherianism to escape Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) using a textbook Forward Looking New Keynesian Model. I have shown that proposed policy with properly chosen inflation target and persistence can stimulate economy and escape ZLB by raising nominal interest rate. I have also shown that the proposed policy is robust to varying degrees of price stickiness.

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Environmental, Social, and Governance Perspectives on Economic Development in Asia
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80117-594-4

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Book part
Publication date: 1 July 2015

J. Huston McCulloch

The Taylor Rule’s Zero Lower Bound problem can be solved by pegging interest rates on longer-maturity loans than the 6 weeks implicit in the Fed’s current operating procedures…

Abstract

The Taylor Rule’s Zero Lower Bound problem can be solved by pegging interest rates on longer-maturity loans than the 6 weeks implicit in the Fed’s current operating procedures. However, the Fed’s policy since 2008 of reducing the opportunity cost of excess reserves to zero (or even negative) has neutralized the stimulative effect of the Fed’s low interest rate policy. Eliminating interest on excess reserves would restore the effectiveness of monetary policy, but would require promptly unwinding the Fed’s “Quantatitve Easing” acquisitions.

It is argued that the Fed’s reaction function should contain no pure inertial terms, and that the “output gap” as originally conceived by Taylor is a statistical illusion. Although the unemployment gap is statistically meaningful, it is not clear that it should be directly included in the Taylor Rule unless it serves as a proxy for the equilibrium real interest rate.

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Monetary Policy in the Context of the Financial Crisis: New Challenges and Lessons
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78441-779-6

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Article
Publication date: 13 October 2020

Youchang Wu

What causes the downward trend of real interest rates in major developed economies since the 1980s? What are the challenges of the near-zero interest and inflation rates for…

Abstract

Purpose

What causes the downward trend of real interest rates in major developed economies since the 1980s? What are the challenges of the near-zero interest and inflation rates for monetary policy? What can the policymakers learn from the latest developments in the monetary and interest rate theory? This paper aims to answer these questions by reviewing both basic principles of interest rate determination and recent academic and policy debates.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper critically reviews the explanations for the downward trend of real interest rates in recent decades and monetary policy options in a near-zero interest rate environment.

Findings

The decline of real interest rates is likely an outcome of multiple technological, social and economic factors including diminished productivity growth, changing demographics, elevated tail-risk concerns, time-varying convenience yields of safe assets, increased global demand for safe assets, rising wealth and income inequality, falling relative price of capital, accommodative monetary policies, and changes in industry structure that alter the investment and saving behaviors of the corporate sector. The near-zero interest rate limits the space of central banks' response to economic crises. It also challenges some conventional wisdoms of monetary theory and sparks radically new ideas about monetary policy.

Originality/value

This survey differs from the existing work by taking a broader view of both economics and finance literature. It critically assesses the economic forces driving the global decline of real interest rates through the lens of basic principles and empirical evidence and discusses the merits and limitations of each proposed explanation. The study emphasizes the importance of a better understanding of economic forces driving diverging trends of corporate investment and saving behaviors. It also discusses the implications of the neo-Fisherism and the fiscal theory of price level for monetary policy in a low interest rate environment.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 11 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

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Article
Publication date: 12 February 2018

Violeta Diaz, Harikumar Sankaran and Subramanian Rama Iyer

After a seven-year period of being stuck in the zero lower bound (ZLB) range, the target rate was raised by 25 basis points on December 16, 2015. Prior to the rate hike, the…

Abstract

Purpose

After a seven-year period of being stuck in the zero lower bound (ZLB) range, the target rate was raised by 25 basis points on December 16, 2015. Prior to the rate hike, the important issues that the Federal Reserve dealt with were the magnitude, timing, and the information conveyed by a first-time rate hike from the ZLB period. The purpose of this paper is to use the data from the ZLB period and simulate the impact of an increase in the proxies for the federal funds rate: effective federal funds rate and shadow rate, and measure the impact on the resulting changes in credit default swap (CDS) spreads across 11 industries. Increases in both proxies predict a significant decrease in CDS spreads which is indicative of an economic recovery. This prediction is confirmed by the announcement effect of the actual rate increase on December 16, 2015 and the three subsequent rate increases.

Design/methodology/approach

In the absence of target rate changes in the ZLB environment, the authors use a recursive vector autoregressive (VAR) model to simulate the rate increases in proxies for target federal rate and predict the impact on the economy by observing the reaction in CDS spreads and stock returns across 11 industries.

Findings

The impulse response indicates that an increase of one standard deviation in the effective rate (approximately 25 basis points) results in a statistically significant decrease in the spreads of CDS contracts in 8 of the 11 sectors studied in this research. Similar results obtain for an increase in shadow rate thus providing a robustness check. These results suggest a rate increase from the ZLB period and the resulting dynamics captured in the VAR system is indicative of an economic recovery.

Originality/value

Prior studies have used the event study methodology to evaluate the impact of rate changes on credit spreads. The ZLB environment does not contain data on target rate changes and renders the event study methodology as ineffective. This paper is the first to simulate the implications of a first-time rate increase from the ZLB environment in the context of a recursive VAR model. The results are very helpful to the Federal Reserve of countries experiencing a ZLB environment such as Japan and Europe.

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Managerial Finance, vol. 44 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

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Article
Publication date: 5 December 2023

Arvind Shroff, Bhavin J. Shah and Hasmukh Gajjar

Pay-what-you-want (PWYW) is a pricing strategy implemented in a variety of settings like supermarkets and museums, in which consumers determine the price they are willing to pay…

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Abstract

Purpose

Pay-what-you-want (PWYW) is a pricing strategy implemented in a variety of settings like supermarkets and museums, in which consumers determine the price they are willing to pay for a product or service based on their perceived utility. The authors propose an analytical model to investigate the impact of PWYW delivery pricing on the online food delivery (OFD) platforms.

Design/methodology/approach

Using a game-theoretic model, the authors characterize the equilibrium as a function of the platform's average delivery cost and the consumer's social preferences parameters like fairness and reciprocity. The authors derive the parametric conditions under which PWYW generates higher profits for the platform compared to the traditional pay-as-asked delivery pricing.

Findings

For the PWYW strategy to be profitable, the average delivery cost to the platform should be low. Therefore, OFD platform managers should focus on reducing delivery costs. The authors also identify the feasible region in which the platform managers need to maintain the consumer's social preferences.

Practical implications

Under PWYW, the authors recommend that the platform managers impose a minimum delivery fee which consumers can use as a benchmark to minimize zero delivery fee payments and consumers' free-riding tendencies simultaneously. This allows OFD platforms to extract online orders from highly price-conscious consumers.

Originality/value

This is one of the first studies to explore the innovative application of PWYW to a particular segment of delivery pricing in OFD platforms. The authors establish that the overall consumer surplus and social welfare are higher under the PWYW strategy, forming a solid ground for its implementation in OFD platforms.

Details

Asia Pacific Journal of Marketing and Logistics, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1355-5855

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Article
Publication date: 25 February 2019

Girraj Sharma and Ritu Sharma

This paper aims to discuss over imperfect reporting channel the performance of cooperative spectrum sensing (CSS). It is investigated that imperfect reporting channel introduces…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to discuss over imperfect reporting channel the performance of cooperative spectrum sensing (CSS). It is investigated that imperfect reporting channel introduces some lower bound in false alarm probability (Pf). The lower bound of probability of false alarm linearly increases with the probability of reporting error.

Design/methodology/approach

To solve this problem, a transmit diversity-based CSS method is proposed, and to improve the detection performance, square law selection (SLS) diversity is used.

Findings

It is observed that detection probability increases up to 11.55 per cent when SLS diversity is applied, and lower bound Qf decreases up to 80 per cent when transmit diversity is applied.

Originality/value

No literature is available to the best of the authors’ knowledge that measures the performance of CSS with respect to parameters as reported in this paper.

Details

World Journal of Engineering, vol. 16 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1708-5284

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Book part
Publication date: 13 May 2019

Rosaria Rita Canale and Rajmund Mirdala

The role of money and monetary policy of the central bank in pursuing macroeconomic stability has significantly changed over the period since the end of World War II…

Abstract

The role of money and monetary policy of the central bank in pursuing macroeconomic stability has significantly changed over the period since the end of World War II. Globalization, liberalization, integration, and transition processes generally shaped the crucial milestones of the macroeconomic development and substantial features of economic policy and its framework in Europe. Policy-driven changes together with variety of exogenous shocks significantly affected the key features of macroeconomic environment on the European continent that fashioned the framework and design of monetary policies.

This chapter examines the key basis of the central bank’s monetary policy on its way to pursue and preserve the internal and external stability of the purchasing power of money. Substantial elements of the monetary policy like objectives and strategies are not only generally introduced but also critically discussed according to their accuracy, suitability, and reliability in the changing macroeconomic conditions. Brief overview of the Eurozone common monetary policy milestones and the past Eastern bloc countries’ experience with a variety of exchange rate regimes provides interesting empirical evidence on origins and implications of vital changes in the monetary policy conduction in Europe and the Eurozone.

Details

Fiscal and Monetary Policy in the Eurozone: Theoretical Concepts and Empirical Evidence
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78743-793-7

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Article
Publication date: 18 April 2023

Zilong Liu, Hongyan Liang and Chang Liu

In theory, the impact of debt liquidity risk (DLR) on the firm's future growth is ambiguous. This study aims to examine the empirical relationship between the DLR and firms'…

Abstract

Purpose

In theory, the impact of debt liquidity risk (DLR) on the firm's future growth is ambiguous. This study aims to examine the empirical relationship between the DLR and firms' growth rate using annual data for USA companies from 1976 to 2020.

Design/methodology/approach

Given the longitudinal nature of the data, the author uses OLS (ordinary least squares) regression methodology with fixed effects to control for unobserved characteristics that might affect the dependent variable. Instrument variable regression is also used to address the potential endogeneity problem.

Findings

The results show that firms having higher DLR, as proxied by more short-term debt, experience lower growth rate. An increase in firms' short-term debt decreases the firms' future growth rate as evidenced by lower assets, revenue and employee growth rate. Moreover, the authors' results show that small firms or firms with more investment opportunities grow fast if the firms take higher DLR. Finally, cyclical firms with higher DLR exhibit lower growth rate during the credit tighten period. The authors' results hold for both the pre-zero lower bound (ZLB) era and ZLB period.

Originality/value

To the authors' best knowledge, this is one of the earliest studies to carefully examine the effects of DLR on firms' growth rate. While prior research finds that firms with higher growth potential, measured by market-to-book (MTB) ratio, use more short-term debt, the authors' research directly addresses whether DLR affects firms' future growth rate. The authors’ findings also help explain why firms with high growth potential use more short-term debt.

Details

International Journal of Managerial Finance, vol. 20 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1743-9132

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