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Book part
Publication date: 1 March 2016

Constantin Gurdgiev and Barry Trueick

At the onset of the Global Financial Crisis in 2007–2008, majority of the analysts and policymakers have anticipated contagion from the markets volatility in the advanced…

Abstract

Purpose

At the onset of the Global Financial Crisis in 2007–2008, majority of the analysts and policymakers have anticipated contagion from the markets volatility in the advanced economies (AEs) to the emerging markets (EMs). This chapter examines the volatility spillovers from the AEs’ equity markets (Japan, the United States and Europe) to the four key EMs, the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China).

Methodology

The period under study, from 2000 through mid-2014, reflects a time of varying regimes in markets volatility, including the periods of dot.com bubble, the Global Financial Crisis and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, the Great Recession and the start of the Russian-Ukrainian geopolitical crisis. To estimate volatility cross-linkages between the AEs and BRIC markets, we use multivariate GARCH-BEKK model across a number of specifications.

Findings

We find that, the developed economies weighted return volatility did have a significant impact on volatility across all four of the BRIC economies returns. However, contrary to the consensus view, there was no evidence of volatility spillover from the individual AEs onto BRIC economies with the exception of a spillover from Europe to Brazil. The implied forward-looking expectations for markets volatility had a strong and significant spillover effect onto Brazil, Russia and China, and a weaker effect on India.

Practical Implications

The evidence on volatility spillovers from the AEs markets to EMs puts into question the traditional view of financial and economic systems sustainability in the presence of higher orders of integration of the global monetary and financial systems. Overall, data suggest that we are witnessing less than perfect integration between BRIC economies and AEs markets to-date can offer some volatility hedging opportunities for investors.

Originality

Our chapter contributes to the growing literature on volatility spillovers from the AEs to the EMs in a number of ways. Firstly, we provide a formal analysis of the spillovers to the BRIC economies over the periods of recent crises. Secondly, we make new conclusions concerning longer-term spillovers as opposed to higher frequency volatility contagion covered by the previous literature. Thirdly, we consider a new channel for volatility contagion – the trade-weighted AEs volatility measure.

Details

Lessons from the Great Recession: At the Crossroads of Sustainability and Recovery
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78560-743-1

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 23 December 2005

Yun Wang, Abeyratna Gunasekarage and David M. Power

This study examines return and volatility spillovers from the US and Japanese stock markets to three South Asian capital markets – (i) the Bombay Stock Exchange, (ii) the Karachi…

Abstract

This study examines return and volatility spillovers from the US and Japanese stock markets to three South Asian capital markets – (i) the Bombay Stock Exchange, (ii) the Karachi Stock Exchange and (iii) the Colombo Stock Exchange. We construct a univariate EGARCH spillover model that allows the unexpected return of any particular South Asian market to be driven by a local shock, a regional shock from Japan and a global shock from the USA. The study discovers return spillovers in all three markets, and volatility spillovers from the US to the Indian and Sri Lankan markets, and from the Japanese to the Pakistani market. Regional factors seem to exert an influence on these three markets before the Asian financial crisis but the global factor becomes more important in the post-crisis period.

Details

Asia Pacific Financial Markets in Comparative Perspective: Issues and Implications for the 21st Century
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-76231-258-0

Book part
Publication date: 13 May 2024

Mohamed Ismail Mohamed Riyath, Narayanage Jayantha Dewasiri, Mohamed Abdul Majeed Mohamed Siraju, Athambawa Jahfer and Kiran Sood

Purpose: This study investigates internal/own shock in the domestic market and three external volatility spillovers from India, the UK, and the USA to the Sri Lanka stock market…

Abstract

Purpose: This study investigates internal/own shock in the domestic market and three external volatility spillovers from India, the UK, and the USA to the Sri Lanka stock market.

Need for the Study: The external market’s internal/own shocks and volatility spillovers influence portfolio choices in domestic stock market returns. Hence, it is required to investigate the internal shock in the domestic market and the external volatility spillovers from other countries.

Methodology: This study employs a quantitative method using ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model. All Share Price Index (ASPI) is the proxy for the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) stock return. It uses daily time-series data from 1st April 2010 to 21st June 2023.

Findings: The findings revealed that internal/own and external shocks substantially impact the stock price volatility in CSE. Significant volatility clusters and persistence with extended memory in ASPI confirm internal/own shock in the market. Furthermore, CSE receives significant volatility shock from the USA, confirming external shock. This study’s findings highlight the importance of considering internal and external shocks in portfolio decision-making.

Practical Implications: Understanding the influence of internal shocks helps investors manage their portfolios and adapt to market volatility. Recognising significant volatility spillovers from external markets, especially the USA, informs diversification strategies. From a policy standpoint, the study emphasises the need for robust regulations and risk management measures to address shocks in domestic and global markets. This study adds value to the literature by assessing the sources of volatility shocks in the CSE, employing the ARMA-GARCH, a sophisticated econometrics model, to capture stock returns volatility, enhancing understanding of the CSE’s volatility dynamics.

Details

VUCA and Other Analytics in Business Resilience, Part A
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-902-4

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Book part
Publication date: 2 September 2020

Sezer Bozkuş Kahyaoğlu and Hilmi Tunahan Akkuş

Introduction – The rapid flow of information between the markets eliminates the possibility of diversifying the portfolio by bringing the markets closer, and may cause the…

Abstract

Introduction – The rapid flow of information between the markets eliminates the possibility of diversifying the portfolio by bringing the markets closer, and may cause the volatility in a market to spread to another market. In this context, revealing the relationships between conventional and participation markets or financial assets is important in terms of portfolio diversification and risk management.

Purpose – The major aim of this work is to analyse the existence of volatility spillover between conventional stock index and participation index based on the indexes in Turkish Capital Markets. BIST-30 and Katılım-30 indexes are used as the representatives of conventional stock index and participation index, respectively.

Methodology – Firstly, the univariate HYGARCH (1,d,1) parameters are calculated, and secondly, the dynamic equicorrelation (DECO) methodology is applied. DECO model is proposed to simplify structural assumptions by introducing a structure in which all twosomes of returns take the same correlation for a given time period. In this way, DECO model enables to have an optimal portfolio selection in comparison to an unrestricted time varying-dynamic correlation approaches and gives more advanced forecasting ability for the duration of the financial crisis periods compared to the various portfolios.

Findings – There is a strong correlation between BIST-30 and Katılım-30. They are affected by the same shocks. We expect to see different investor behaviours for Katılım-30 and BIST-30. However, they seem to have almost the same investor profile. In addition, there is a causality in both ways and volatility spillover between them.

Book part
Publication date: 4 October 2018

Pym Manopimoke, Suthawan Prukumpai and Yuthana Sethapramote

This chapter examines dynamic connectedness among emerging Asian equity markets as well as explores their linkages vis-à-vis other major global markets. We find that international…

Abstract

This chapter examines dynamic connectedness among emerging Asian equity markets as well as explores their linkages vis-à-vis other major global markets. We find that international equity markets are tightly integrated. Measuring connectedness based on a generalized Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, more than half of all total forecast error variance in equity return and volatility shocks come from other markets as opposed to country own shocks. When examining the degree of connectedness over time, we find that international stock markets have become increasingly connected, with a gentle upward trend since the Asian financial crisis (AFC) but with a rapid burst during the global financial crisis (GFC). Despite the growing importance of Asian emerging markets in the world economy, we find that their influence on advanced economies are still relatively small, with no significant increase over time. During the past decade, advanced markets have been consistently net transmitters of shocks while emerging Asian markets act as net receivers. Based on the nature of equity shock spillovers, we also find that advanced countries are still tightly connected among themselves while intraregional connectedness within Asia remains strong. By investigating whether uncertainty plays an important role in explaining the degree of stock market connectedness, we find that economic policy uncertainty (EPU) from the US is an important source of financial shock spillover for the majority of international equity markets. In contrast, US financial market uncertainty as proxied by the VIX index drives equity market spillovers only among advanced economies.

Details

Banking and Finance Issues in Emerging Markets
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78756-453-4

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 24 October 2013

Suk-Joong Kim, Linda Lee and Eliza Wu

This chapter investigates the impact of policy interest rate news from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) on stock returns and volatilities of U.S…

Abstract

This chapter investigates the impact of policy interest rate news from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) on stock returns and volatilities of U.S. NYSE and German DAX listed commercial banks. We find that Fed news has the most influence on both U.S. and German listed bank stocks and an unexpected policy rate increase (decrease) lowers (raises) returns and raises volatility in the majority of cases. On the other hand, ECB news generally increases bank stock volatility in the United States but has little impact within its own domestic banking industry. While our results for the U.S. listed banks confirm that their stock prices are more responsive in bad economic times and also during periods of monetary tightening, we find disparities for German banks suggesting that U.S. and European banking industries respond heterogeneously to monetary policy news but the Global Financial Crisis increased the sensitivity of all banks to monetary policy news.

Details

Global Banking, Financial Markets and Crises
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78350-170-0

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 8 November 2021

Surachai Chancharat and Julaluk Butda

This chapter examines the dynamic linkages between the returns of Bitcoin, gold, and oil by using daily closing price data between July 17, 2010 and January 8, 2021. This study…

Abstract

This chapter examines the dynamic linkages between the returns of Bitcoin, gold, and oil by using daily closing price data between July 17, 2010 and January 8, 2021. This study applies the diagonal BEKK–GARCH model for the purpose of analyzing a volatility spillover of variables in positive or negative ways. The empirical results show that the lagged returns inversely affect their current returns in oil. Based on the return spillovers between Bitcoin and gold, the empirical results indicate a unidirectional return spillover from Bitcoin to gold. Moreover, the authors found a unidirectional return transmission is observed from oil to Bitcoin, implying that oil returns are useful in forecasting Bitcoin returns. These findings are not only valuable for understanding of the interrelationships between the returns of Bitcoin, gold, and oil, but they are also of great interest to portfolio managers, investors, and investment funds that are actively dealing in Bitcoin, gold, and oil.

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Environmental, Social, and Governance Perspectives on Economic Development in Asia
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80117-594-4

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Book part
Publication date: 8 March 2011

Yushi Yoshida

We investigate whether or not the effects of the subprime financial crisis on 12 Asian economies are similar to those of the Asian financial crisis by examining volatility…

Abstract

We investigate whether or not the effects of the subprime financial crisis on 12 Asian economies are similar to those of the Asian financial crisis by examining volatility spillovers and time-varying correlation between the US and Asian stock markets. After pretesting volatility causality and constancy of correlation, we estimate an appropriate smooth-transition correlation VAR-GARCH model for each Asian stock market. First, the empirical evidence indicates stark differences in stock market linkages between the two crises. The volatility causality comes from the crises-originating country. Volatility in Asian stock markets Granger-caused volatility in the US market during the Asian crisis, whereas volatility in the US stock market Granger-caused volatility in Asian stock markets during the subprime crisis. Second, decreased correlations during the period of financial turmoil were observed, especially during the Asian financial crisis. Third, the estimated points of transition in the correlation are indicative of market participants’ awareness of the ensuing stock market crashes in July 1997 and in September 2008.

Details

The Evolving Role of Asia in Global Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-85724-745-2

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 16 September 2022

Adriana Anamaria Davidescu, Răzvan Gabriel Hapau and Eduard Mihai Manta

In recent decades, interconnections between countries have increased substantially worldwide as the process of integration and globalisation intensifies, with a positive impact in…

Abstract

In recent decades, interconnections between countries have increased substantially worldwide as the process of integration and globalisation intensifies, with a positive impact in terms of economic development, but, also with a vulnerability to external shocks, such as the financial contagion phenomenon. The analysis of this research field becomes even more relevant in the context of a new major exogenous shock, but which, this time, has different specificities, being a sanitary crisis. Thus, the chapter aims to investigate the impact of crises on capital market volatility for the period of 1995–2021, using the bibliometric analysis highlighting the dynamics of the literature and potential future research directions through a science mapping that enables investigating scientific knowledge. In order to explore the development of the research field in terms of publications, author impact, affiliated institutions and countries, citation patterns, trending topics, relationship between keywords–authors–journals, abstracts’ analysis, authors and documents clustering by coupling, multiple correspondence analysis of major research themes, keyword analysis, co-citation analysis and authors, institutions and countries collaboration analysis have been applied. Hence, almost 500 publications from Web of Science database covering the period 1995–2021 have been extracted. The empirical findings emphasise the conceptual structure, with clusters focussing mainly on long-term receivables, market efficiency, volatility, dynamic conditional correlation (DCC)-GARCH models, asymmetric effects. According to the intellectual structure of the field, Lambertides N., Zopiatis A., McAleer M. or Savva C. S. are the most representative authors for the sub-area of volatility topic; whilst Balcerzak A. P., Pietrzak M. B., Zinecker M., Meluzin T. and Faldzinski M. are the reference names for the whole spectrum of DCC-GARCH models’ topic. Jayasekera R., Lundblad C., Choundhry T., Gupta R. and Demirer R. are the authors mostly associated with asymmetric effects’ topic, whilst Thorp S., Bouchaud J. P. and Dungey M. with the quantitative finance. The Journal of Banking & Finance, the Journal of International Money and Finance and the International Review of Financial Analysis as well as Economic Modelling, Research in International Business and Finance and the International Journal of Finance & Economics are the most prolific journals in the field of capital flow and financial crises. This chapter’s main contribution is to build a structure of knowledge for the impact of crises on capital market volatility, elaborate and classify empirical research into relevant dimensions that can be used as a reference for comprehensively developing research. Finally, the bibliometric analysis results may provide insight into future research prospects. Our conclusions offer some recommendations for market practitioners and policy-making.

Details

The New Digital Era: Other Emerging Risks and Opportunities
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80382-983-8

Keywords

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 4 October 2018

Abstract

Details

Banking and Finance Issues in Emerging Markets
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78756-453-4

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