Search results

This study aims to estimate Pakistan’s export potential in new and existing export products, as well as their potential destination markets.

This study uses a nonparametric approach based on demand, supply and easiness factors for estimating export potential at disaggregated product and destination levels.

A significant number of new export products (extensive margin) and existing products (intensive margin) are identified that have export potential. The estimated unrealized export potential at extensive margins is $2bn and at intensive margins is $5bn. The range of new products included value-added products, semifinished products and intermediate products. Surprisingly, there is high potential to diversify in China and export existing products more intensively in the EU. Moreover, the potential at extensive margins is regional diverse compared to intensive margins.

The methodology used in this paper only provides export potential for short-to-medium term period because the global demand conditions are varying. Also, the mineral and resource-based products cannot be included in the analysis because their exports are heavily dependent on the availability of natural resources.

The findings have important policy implications in terms of providing guidelines for government policies related to industrial development, international trade and export promotion at the product and destination level. Overall, the study reveals that traditional sectors lack room for product diversification. As the existing export incentives favor major industries. To foster diversification, existing incentives must be redesigned to cover new products or sectors. Moreover, China has the greatest potential for product diversification, while Europe has the greatest potential to export current products more intensively. Further research is needed to simulate trade policy scenarios and estimate demand, supply and ease factors in export potential.

This study provides a unique perspective on export potential assessment at disaggregated product and destination levels, reinforcing the importance of redesigning trade policies and export incentives separately for export diversification.

The Russian export flow is highly concentrated on few trading partners that results in its high vulnerability to external shock. Furthermore, the Russian–Ukraine conflict and corresponding western sanctions has enhanced the need of export markets diversification for Russia. Therefore, this study is a baseline attempt to explore determinants of export flow along with identifying potential export markets. This objective is realized by employing an augmented version of gravity model on export flow of Russian Federation to 108 trading partners from 2000 to 2020.

The augmented gravity model of export flow is estimated by using employing contemporary panel econometrics such as panel generalized ordinary least square estimation technique with cross-sectional weight along with heteroskedasticity consistent white coefficients is employed to explore impact of selected macroeconomic and policy variables. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis is performed by using panel random effect along with the Driscoll–Kraay standard errors with pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and random effect generalized least square (GLS) estimator techniques. The estimated result of panel GLS technique is subjected to in-sampled forecasting technique to explore potential export markets.

The findings show that an increase in the income of trading partners and enhancement of domestic production capacity has significant positive impact on Russian export flow, whereas geographic distance has a significant negative impact. Income of trading partners emerged as major determinant of export flow with high explanatory power. Among augmented variables, the real exchange rate reveals a significant positive impact of lower intensity, whereas binary variables for the common border, common history and preferential/free trade agreement show a significant positive impact. The finding of export potential reveals a high concentration of export with existence of large potential for exports across the globe. For instance, many developing countries in Asia, Africa and America reveal high potential for Russian exports.

The findings urge Russian Federation to diversify its export markets by targeting potential export markets. Many emerging developing countries are witnessing a high potential for Russian exports, therefore attempts should be taken to diversify toward them. The expansion of existing transportation facilities along with development of cargo trade can be important policy instrument to realize objective of export diversification.

This study is the first comprehensive analysis that employs augmented gravity model to explore potential export markets for Russian Federation by using panel data of 108 global trading partners from 2000 to 2020. This finding of this study provides a framework of export diversification toward potential markets across the globe.

This paper aims to identify Thailand’s realistic export opportunities (REOs) in the ASEAN+3 countries (i.e. ASEAN, Greater China, Japan and South Korea), which together constitute an economically dynamic region and a strategic export destination for Thailand. Furthermore, the paper seeks to determine the extent to which Thailand already has a share in ASEAN+3 countries and where new opportunities lie. This allows the formulation of appropriate export promotion strategies for Thailand.

The methodology used is a decision support model (DSM) which uses an extensive data-filtering system to systematically screen and eliminate less-promising product–country combinations to ultimately reveal high-potential REOs. Product–country combinations are screened on the basis of country risk; macro-economic country performance; market potential in terms of import growth and import market size; and market access conditions, including market concentration and the existence of trade barriers. The thus narrowed-down REOs are categorised according to Thailand’s relative market share in, and the characteristics of, the identified import markets.

The study reveals that the ASEAN+3 countries account for about 40 per cent of the total potential export value of Thailand’s REOs in the world, with China leading the way (12.45 per cent), followed by Japan (8.56 per cent) and South Korea (6.23 per cent). However, Thailand has a relatively small or intermediately small market share in the majority of these REOs, pointing to the need for more offensive and exploratory export promotion strategies.

The ASEAN+3 countries – given that they are an abundant source of REOs for Thailand and are in Thailand’s “backyard” – should receive more focused attention and resources in government export promotion efforts. The recent launch of the ASEAN Economic Community and the proposed establishment of an East Asia Free Trade Area lend weight to the idea of Thailand adopting a strong regional focus in its export activities.

The insights derived from the study are valuable for export promotion officials, industry representatives and practising exporters alike, as they constitute an easy-to-digest snapshot of high-potential REOs for Thailand in the ASEAN+3 region. This makes for more efficient planning and prioritising of export development activities, and a more streamlined approach to resource allocation.

Export promotion shows diminishing returns and requires sustainable strategies and interventions. The value in this paper lies in its description of an innovative market selection tool, the DSM, which is able to process and filter high volumes of information and arrive at a shortlist of high-potential REOs for Thailand in the ASEAN+3 countries. The paper represents a concise case study of the DSM in practice, which should be of particular interest to export promotion agencies, industry associations and both new and more established exporting countries.

The aim of the proposed classification approach of potential market alternatives (CAPMA) is to provide exporting countries with a framework for identifying potential market opportunities for their products or services.

In today's global market conditions, with competition increasing daily, companies, businesses and states must seek new markets at the national and international level. Target market selection is a strategic process that directly affects the success of an organization and can lead to important results in the short and long term. The process requires systematic research and digitization of data to analyse target markets.

The study tested the proposed approach by analysing Turkey's potential markets for hazelnut exports and identifying new target markets. A significant part of Turkey's hazelnut exporting is confined to the European geography of Turkey, the leading country in hazelnut production and export. Twenty potential markets were evaluated on the basis of 11 criteria, and feasible alternatives were categorized into four classes. The study revealed that the USA, India, the United Kingdom and Japan were in the category of markets with the greatest potential for increasing exports (Dimension 1).

This study has developed a novel approach that allows the comparison of the current market situation with potential market outcomes and creates an accurate classification of target markets.

This paper aims to identify China’s realistic export opportunities (REOs) among the “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) group of countries.

The methodology used is a decision support model (DSM) that filters data based on country risk; macro-economic country performance; market potential in terms of import growth and import market size; and market access conditions. The high-potential REOs are revealed.

Out of the 84 BRI countries, 79 countries represent 42.5% of China’s REOs globally and 26.9% of China’s globally untapped potential value. Interestingly, 17.9% of this untapped potential is in the BRI countries Poland, Austria and the Czech Republic, thus providing a potentially important route into the European Union.

If China wants to develop additional or new markets, focus should be put on the BRI markets outside of the top 20. China should also invest in the development of most BRI economies, to ensure their future growth and increased demand for import of products and services from China.

The shortlist of China’s REOs in the individual BRI countries makes for more efficient planning and prioritising of export development activities. It also highlights the need for policymakers to look beyond international trade and focus on how to also improve the domestic economies of the BRI partners.

To the best of authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first to use the DSM to identify China’s REOs at HS6-digit level within the BRI group. The findings have important implications for China’s export promotion agencies, industry associations and individual companies.

The aim of this chapter is to develop a strong research base for the academia and the industry to understand the importance of data analytics in International Trade. This chapter focuses on the case of cotton trade from India and explores different methodologies developed by the World Bank and International Trade Center to analyze the Big Data available on export and import. Through Big Data analysis, this chapter attempts to find out the export performance, market demand, export potential, and attractive markets for Indian cotton. This chapter also explores the trade competitiveness of Indian cotton over the years. The data through appropriate analysis can address some simple yet complicated questions in trade like what export potential the commodity holds, if the commodity is competitive or not in international market, what are new markets to look up to, and other similar questions. In other words, this information could make huge difference in decision-making of traders and policymakers directly, and farmers indirectly.

The present study provides evidence on export advantages of horticultural commodities based on competitiveness, trade balance and seasonality dimensions.

The study delineated horticultural commodities in terms of comparative advantage, examined temporal shifts in export advantages (mapping) and estimated seasonality. Product mapping was carried out using the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) and Trade Balance Index (TBI). Seasonal advantages were examined through a graphical approach along with the objective tests, namely, modified QS-test (QS), Friedman-test (FT) and using a seasonal dummy.

Cucumbers/gherkins, onions, preserved vegetables, fresh grapes, shelled cashew nuts, guavas, mangoes, and spices emerged as the most favorable horticultural products. India has a strong seasonal advantage in dried onions, cucumber/gherkins, shelled cashew nut, dried capsicum, coriander, cumin, and turmeric. The untapped potential in horticulture can be addressed by handling the trade barriers effectively, particularly the sanitary and phytosanitary issues, affecting the exports. Proper policies must be enacted to facilitate the investment in advanced agricultural technologies and logistics to ensure the desired quality and cost effectiveness.

Commodity-specific studies on value chain analysis would provide valuable insights into the issues hindering exports and realizing the untapped export potential.

There is no holistic and recent study illustrating the horticulture export advantages covering a large number of commodities in the Indian context. The study would be helpful to the stakeholders for drawing useful policy implications.

The gravity theory of trade explains the potential for trade between nations, but its application to trade in halal food has been questioned by previous studies. This study aims to investigate this issue and the role of trading partners’ economic strength and their distance from one another to identify Malaysia’s potential to export food to key halal markets.

The gravity theory of trade was used to examine Malaysia’s top 10 food exports to key halal markets from 2000–2017. The gravity panels were estimated using the Hausman-Taylor modelling technique to control for endogeneity within the model.

The application of the gravity theory of trade to a halal market context provides mixed results. Although the high economic strength (gross domestic product) of the trading partners enhances halal trade, the distance between the partners does not affect the volume of halal food exports. Moreover, the study identifies Malaysia’s potential to export only a few food commodities to key halal markets.

This study challenges the applicability of the gravity theory of trade to the halal food market. The study extends the model with additional controls for behavioural aspects and applies it to commodity-specific segregated trade in halal food. The findings underscore the need to extend the theory beyond its current focus when explaining trade opportunities in halal markets.

Any country including India which has registered remarkable growth has done so by participating in the economic integration process led by global and regional trade liberalization. India has an emerging web of cooperation with East Asian countries, especially Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) through the ASEAN–India dialogue process, the bilateral free trade agreement with Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand and subregional initiatives such as the Mekong–Ganga Cooperation and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC; Yong 2005).

India's free trade agreements and regional trade agreements with countries in this region have not been models of success in their implementation even when there were benefits. The main idea of the formal trade negotiation was to enhance ASEAN-India partnership, specifically in the economic arena. However, India's position in ASEAN's external trade and investment flows has not yet experienced any special momentum. The two-way trade between India and ASEAN is tilted toward ASEAN with the trade gap expanding rapidly.

Thus, to understand India's trade with ASEAN, the chapter would examine India's trade prospects with the ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, and Vietnam) particularly in merchandise trade. This chapter would identify new products that India can export to the ASEAN, which will increase its share in ASEAN's market. In order to achieve this, the chapter seeks to discuss the detailed microanalysis at HS 6-digit level to capture the trade creation effects based on lower unit value items for estimating product-specific potential exports and imports to/from ASEAN.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the potentials and barriers to trade in the Malaysia–Chile partnership.

This paper estimates two-way export potentials from an augmented three-dimensional panel gravity model of bilateral trade between Malaysia and the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region, spanning the 1990–2014 period. Utilizing interviews with government officials and industry experts in Malaysia and Chile, this paper also provides insights into market access issues.

The empirical findings of this study suggest that Malaysia has trade potential in Chile, but Chile is “overtrading” with Malaysia. By major products traded, both countries are found to be “overtrading,” as the export basket remains concentrated in this partnership. Through the interviews, fewer restrictions are reported by the various stakeholders, as the extent of trade engagement remains somewhat low. The main challenge identified within specific sectors in both the countries relates mainly to procedures established to secure compliance with labeling regulations for food products.

The sectoral findings reveal that there is indeed scope for expanding exports beyond the current major products traded, particularly in base metal and scientific and measuring equipment from the Malaysia and Chile perspectives, respectively. Thus, product diversification matters to intensify trade cooperation between the two countries. Non-tariff measures need to be streamlined by both parties to ensure further product diversification to food trade, particularly for Chile.

The limited literature on cross-regional trade within the broader framework of Southeast Asia and LAC only support the fact that potentials do exist but do not appear to provide much research evidence. Empirically, this paper will add to the existing literature on the potentials that hold in the Malaysia–Chile partnership. Further, a lack of adequate information remains on market access and other barriers in both the nations to facilitate decisions on trade opportunities. The findings of the study fill that vacuum of information pertaining to market access and trade facilitation through interviews with various stakeholders in Malaysia and Chile.