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This study focuses on how China EPU may impact copper-firms stock returns and also how China EPU mediates between stock returns and copper prices returns.

The sample consists of 44 copper firms from January 2011 to March 2022. The study also considers a subsample of 29 net-exporters countries. Panel data methodology is used, allowing to control for unobservable heterogeneity and endogeneity problems. The equations are estimated through a dynamic panel using the generalized methods of moments (GMM).

China EPU has a negative and statistically significant relationship with stock returns. Copper price returns are positively associated with stock returns. This research also considers two scenarios: high and low levels of China EPU. For high levels of China EPU states it is reported a negative relationship between stock returns and China EPU and copper price returns show a positive relationship with stock returns.

There is need to explore other metals for what China exhibits a high demand and observe if China EPU and Global EPU have similar impacts on stock returns. It will be useful to identify main firm's consumers of copper and these other metals to explore the relationship between EPU and stock returns.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper that analyzes China EPU index and its impact on both copper-firms stocks returns and on changes in copper prices. This is done using all public copper firms worldwide.

Este estudio se enfoca en como la incertidumbre en política económica de China (llamado China EPU) puede impactar en los retornos de las acciones de empresas del sector del cobre y como China EPU media entre los retornos de las acciones y los retornos de los precios del cobre.

La muestral consiste en 44 firmas de cobre desde enero 2011 a marzo 2022. El estudio también considera una sub muestra de 29 países que son exportadores netos de cobre. Se utiliza la metodología de datos de panel, permitiendo controlar por lo inobservable y por problemas de endogeneidad. Las ecuaciones son estimadas a través de panel dinámico usando el método generalizado de los momentos (G.M.M.).

EPU de China tiene una relación negativa y estadísticamente significativa con los retornos accionarios. Los retornos de los precios del cobre están positivamente asociados con los retornos accionarios. La investigación también considera dos posibles escenarios: altos y bajos niveles de EPU. Para el estado de altos niveles se reporta una relación negativa entre los retornos accionarios y el EPU de China, además los retornos de los precios del cobre muestran una relación positiva con los retornos accionarios.

Se requiere explorar otros metales para los cuales China sea un importante demandante a nivel internacional y observar si el EPU de China y el EPU Global tienen similares impactos en los retornos accionarios. A su vez sería útil identificar las principales firmas consumidoras de cobres y estos otros metales de tal forma de chequear la relación entre EPU y retornos accionarios.

En nuestro mejor conocimiento, este es el primer artículo que analiza el índice EPU de China y como este impacta tanto los retornos accionarios de las empresas de cobre como los cambios de precios del cobre. Esto es hecho usando una muestral que incluye todas las empresas de cobre que se transan en bolsa a nivel internacional.

The stock market generates massive databases of various financial companies that are highly volatile and complex. To forecast daily stock values of these companies, investors frequently use technical analysis or fundamental analysis. Data mining techniques coupled with fundamental and technical analysis types have the potential to give satisfactory results for stock market prediction. In the current paper, an effort is made to investigate the accuracy of stock market predictions by using the combined approach of variables from technical and fundamental analysis for the creation of a data mining predictive model.

We chose 381 companies from the National Stock Exchange of India's CNX 500 index and conducted a two-stage data analysis. The first stage is identifying key fundamental variables and constructing a portfolio based on that study. Artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machines (SVM) and decision tree J48 were used to build the models. The second stage entails applying technical analysis to forecast price movements in the companies included in the portfolios. ANN and SVM techniques were used to create predictive models for all companies in the portfolios. We also estimated returns using trading decisions based on the model's output and then compared them to buy-and-hold returns and the return of the NIFTY 50 index, which served as a benchmark.

The results show that the returns of both the portfolios are higher than the benchmark buy-and-hold strategy return. It can be concluded that data mining techniques give better results, irrespective of the type of stock, and have the ability to make up for poor stocks. The comparison of returns of portfolios with the return of NIFTY as a benchmark also indicates that both the portfolios are generating higher returns as compared to the return generated by NIFTY.

As stock prices are influenced by both technical and fundamental indicators, the current paper explored the combined effect of technical analysis and fundamental analysis variables for Indian stock market prediction. Further, the results obtained by individual analysis have also been compared. The proposed method under study can also be utilized to determine whether to hold stocks for the long or short term using trend-based research.

This study aims to investigate the relationship between return and liquidity risk and the impact of the prospect theory value (PTV) as a moderator variable on this relationship.

The statistical population of this study is the companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 2006–2019. In this research, the portfolio construction method and alpha analysis of the factor models and the cross-sectional regression of Fama and Macbeth have been used to analyze the data.

The results obtained through the portfolio construction method and the cross-sectional regression of Fama and Macbeth show that there is no significant relationship between return and Amihud (2002) criterion (ILLIQ) as liquidity risk. The PTV also does not affect this relationship, but there is a positive and significant relationship between returns and the turnover ratio (TOR) as liquidity risk. In other words, the lower the TOR (higher liquidity risk), the lower the return. On the other hand, the results showed that the PTV affects this relationship.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to examine the effect of the PTV on the relationship between return and liquidity risk. It is expected that the results of this study can help investors explain returns better through a deeper understanding of the behavior of investors and their decision-making methods. In other words, by examining the PTV as a proxy for behavioral dimension, we can understand that the relationship between return and liquidity risk can be affected by other dimensions like PTV, so when evaluating risk and return, other influential factors should also be considered.

This study aims to find the relationship of stock market returns and selected financial market variables (market capitalization, earnings per share, price-earnings multiples, dividend yield and trading volume) of Malaysia grounded by the arbitrage pricing theories.

This study empirically examines the effects of selected financial market variables on stock market returns using 64 companies listed in Malaysia's stock market with data spanning from 2005 to 2018. A systematic empirical study based on the Generalized Method of Moments following Arellano and Bond (1991) has been taken to estimate the effect.

The regression result of the financial market variables and stock market return shows that, except for trading volume, all selected financial market variables play significant roles in the stock market returns. Furthermore, market capitalization, earnings per share, price-earnings ratio, dividend yield and trading volume have a positive impact on stock market returns.

The outcome of this study can contribute by helping domestic and global investors devise strategies to minimize their risks. Also, policy administrators can use the outcomes of this study to inform the micro- and macro-level policy formulation.

This study will contribute to filling the gap in knowledge concerning the new release of factors affecting the stock market returns of Malaysia.

This paper aims to investigate the impact of qualified audit opinions on the returns of stocks listed at Amman Stock Exchange (ASE) after the introduction of the recent amendments by the International Auditing and Assurance Standard Board (IAASB) on audits reporting and conclusions. It further investigates if results differ between first time qualified and sequenced qualifications, and between plain qualified opinion and qualifications with going concern.

Audit opinions’ announcements and stock returns data are collected from companies’ annual reports for the fiscal years 2016 to 2019 while stock returns are computed from stock closing prices published at ASE website. The authors apply the event study approach and use the market model to calculate normal returns. Cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) and average abnormal returns (AARs) are computed for all qualified audit opinions’ announcements.

The empirical evidence suggests that investors at ASE do not react to qualified audit opinions announcements. That is, the authors find an insignificant impact of qualified audit opinion announcements on stock returns using both CAR and AAR estimates. The results are robust to first time and sequenced qualifications, and for qualifications with going concern. Results are also robust to the use of risk adjusted market model.

The insignificant impact of qualified audit opinions on stock returns have two potential conflicting research implications. First, the new amendments introduced to auditors’ report made them more informative and reduce the negative signals contained in the qualified opinions. That is, investors are now aware of the real causes of qualifications and not overreacting to the qualified opinion. Second, the documented insignificant impact confirms that ASE is not a semi-strong form efficient.

The apparent excessive use of qualifications should ring the bell on whether auditors misuse their power or companies are really in trouble. Hence, the Jordanian regulatory bodies need to warn auditors against the excessive use of qualifications on the one hand, and to raise the awareness of investors on the implications of auditors’ opinions on the other hand.

This study is innovative in twofold. First, it explores the impact of qualified audit opinions on stock returns after the introduction of new amendments by IAASB at ASE. In addition, it uses event study approach and distinguishes between first time qualified and sequenced qualifications, and between plain qualified opinion and qualifications with going concern. The results are consistent with efficient market theory and behavioral finance explanations.

Using the next-day and next-week returns of stocks in the Korean market, we examine the association of option volume ratios – i.e. the option-to-stock (O/S) ratio, which is the total volume of put options and call options scaled by total underlying equity volume, and the put-call (P/C) ratio, which is the put volume scaled by total put and call volume – with future returns. We find that O/S ratios are positively related to future returns, but P/C ratios have no significant association with returns. We calculate individual, institutional, and foreign investors’ option ratios to determine which ratios are significantly related to future returns and find that, for all investors, higher O/S ratios predict higher future returns. The predictability of P/C depends on the investors: institutional and individual investors’ P/C ratios are not related to returns, but foreign P/C predicts negative next-day returns. For net-buying O/S ratios, institutional net-buying put-to-stock ratios consistently predict negative future returns. Institutions’ buying and selling put ratios also predict returns. In short, institutional put-to-share ratios predict future returns when we use various option ratios, but individual option ratios do not.

The paper aims to investigate whether or not a firm’s capital structure can interact with past stock returns to affect future stock returns. Specifically, the authors examine whether or not capital structure can help improve momentum profit.

The authors use the US common stocks data from 1965 to 2022 to empirically examine the impact of capital structure on momentum profit.

When capital structure is measured either as the ratio of debt to asset or the ratio of liability to asset, we all find out that momentum strategies tend to be more profitable for stocks with large capital structure.

Besides documenting the empirical evidence of the impact of capital structure on momentum profit, the authors also present a simple explanation for their empirical results and show that their finding is consistent with the behavioral finance theory that characterizes investors’ increased psychological bias and the more limited arbitrage opportunity when the estimation of firm value becomes more difficult or less accurate.

The purpose of this paper is to bridge the gap between the existing theoretical and empirical studies by examining the asymmetric return–volume relationship. Indeed, the authors aim to shed light on the return–volume linkages for French-listed small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) compared to blue chips across different market regimes.

This study includes both large capitalizations included in the CAC 40 index and listed SMEs included in the Euronext Growth All Share index. The Markov-switching (MS) approach is applied to understand the asymmetric relationship between trading volume and stock returns. The study investigates also the causal impact between stock returns and trading volume using regime-dependent Granger causality tests.

Asymmetric contemporaneous and lagged relationships between stock returns and trading volume are found for both large capitalizations and listed SMEs. However, the causality investigation reveals some differences between large capitalizations and SMEs. Indeed, causal relationships depend on market conditions and the size of the market.

This paper explains the asymmetric return–volume relationship for both large capitalizations and listed SMEs by incorporating several psychological biases, such as the disposition effect, investor overconfidence and self-attribution bias. Future research needs to deepen the analysis especially for SMEs as most of the literature focuses on large capitalizations.

This empirical study has fundamental implications for portfolio management. The findings provide a deeper understanding of how trading activity impact current returns and vice versa. The authors’ results constitute an important input to build and control trading strategies.

This paper fills the literature gap on the asymmetric return–volume relationship across different regimes. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the present study is the first empirical attempt to test the asymmetric return–volume relationship for listed SMEs by using an accurate MS framework.

Recent studies suggested the ratio of option to stock volume reflected the private information. Informed traders were drawn to the options market for its leverage effect and relatively low transaction costs. Informed traders use different intervals of option moneyness to execute their strategies. The question is which types of option moneyness were traded by informed traders and what information was reflected in the market. In this study, the authors focused on this question and constructed a method for capturing the activity of informed traders in the options and stock markets.

The authors constructed the daily measure, moneyness option trading volume to stock trading volume ratio (MOS), to capture the activity of informed traders in the market. The authors formed quintile portfolios sorted with respect to the moneyness option to stock trading volume ratio and provided the capital asset pricing model and Fama–French five-factor alphas. To determine whether MOS had predictive ability on future stock returns after controlling for company characteristic effects, the authors formed double-sorted portfolios and performed Fama–Macbeth regressions.

The authors found that the firms in the lowest moneyness option trading volume to stock trading volume ratio for put quintile outperform the highest quintile by 0.698% per week (approximately 36% per year). The firms in the highest moneyness option trading volume to stock trading volume ratio for call quintile outperform the lowest quintile by 0.575% per week (approximately 30% per year).

The authors first propose the measures, moneyness option trading volume to stock trading volume ratio, that combined with the trading volume and option moneyness. The authors provide evidence that the measures have the predictive ability to the future stock returns.

Although the value effect is comprehensively investigated in developed markets, the number of studies examining the Vietnamese stock market is limited. Hence, the first aim of this research is to provide empirical evidence regarding returns on value and growth stocks in Vietnam. The second aim is to explain abnormal returns on Vietnamese growth and value stocks using both risk-based and behavioral points of view.

From the risk-based explanation, the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), Fama–French three- and five-factor models are estimated. From the behavioral explanation, to construct the mispricing factor, this paper relies on the method of Rhodes-Kropf et al. (2005), one of the most popular mispricing estimations in the financial literature with numerous citations (Jaffe et al., 2020).

While the CAPM and Fama–French multifactor models cannot capture returns on growth and value stocks, a three-factor model with the mispricing factor has done an excellent job in explaining their returns. Three out of four Fama–French mimic factors do not contain additional information on expected returns. Their risk premiums are also statistically insignificant according to the Fama–MacBeth second-stage regression. By contrast, both robustness tests prove the explanatory power of a three-factor model with mispricing. Taken together, mispricing plays an essential role in explaining returns on Vietnamese growth and value stocks, consistent with the behavioral point of view.

There are several value-enhancing aspects in the field of market finance. First, this paper contributes to the literature of value effect in emerging markets. While the evidence of value effect is obvious in numerous developed as well as international markets, both growth and value effects are discovered in Vietnam. Second, the explanatory power of Fama–French multifactor models is evaluated in the Vietnamese context. Finally, to the best of the author's knowledge, this is the first paper that incorporates the mispricing estimation of Rhodes-Kropf et al. (2005) into the asset pricing model in Vietnam.