We find evidence that the runs on banks and trust companies in the Panic of 1907 were linked to the Bank of England’s contractionary monetary policy actions taken in 1906…
We find evidence that the runs on banks and trust companies in the Panic of 1907 were linked to the Bank of England’s contractionary monetary policy actions taken in 1906 and 1907 through the medium of copper prices. Results from our vector autoregressive models and copper stockpile data support our argument that a copper commodity price channel may have been active in transmitting the Bank’s policy to the New York markets. Archival evidence suggests that the plunge in copper prices may have partially triggered both the initiation and the failure of an attempt to corner the shares of United Copper, and in turn, the bank and trust company runs related to that transaction’s failure. We suggest that the substantial short-term uncertainties accompanying the development of the copper-intensive electrical and telecommunications industries likely played a role in the plunge in copper prices. Additionally, we find evidence that the copper price transmission mechanism was also likely active in five other countries that year. While we do not argue that copper caused the 1907 crisis, we suggest that it was an active policy transmission channel amplifying the classic effect that was already spreading through the money market channel. If the bust in copper prices partially triggered the 1907 panic, then it provides additional evidence that contractionary monetary policy may have had an unintended, adverse consequence of contributing to a bank panic and, therefore, supports other recent findings that monetary policy deliberations might benefit from considering the policy impact on asset prices.
This study analyses empirically the Granger causality between commodity ETFs listed in KRX (Korea Stock Exchange) and the price determinants of the underlying commodities…
This study analyses empirically the Granger causality between commodity ETFs listed in KRX (Korea Stock Exchange) and the price determinants of the underlying commodities as well as the KOSPI200 index and the underlying indices, and compares the performance of four commodity ETFs : gold futures, oil futures, soybean futures and the copper price. The main findings are as follows : First, the commodity ETFs tracking gold futures, oil futures and soybean futures prices in the sample from the inception to June 2015 were not directly related to the price determinants of the underlying commodities except for the copper ETF which was affected by the oil price as one of the price determinants of copper. In addition, all four ETFs were not related to the KOSPI200 index while they were affected by the underlying indices. Second, the soybean futures ETF outperformed the KOSPI200 index in terms of the cumulative returns and the oil futures ETF recorded the worst performance in terms of the cumulative returns and IR (information ratio). Third, the average tracking error of each ETF except for the oil futures ETF showed a positive value and the price of each ETF except for the soybean futures ETF has been undervalued compared to its net asset value. From the above findings, we can infer that investors in the copper ETF should closely watch the movement of the oil price to enhance the return and investors in the commodity ETFs should first consider agriculture-related ETFs rather than oil-related ETFs considering the price volatility. In addition, the inverse ETFs for copper and agriculture-related products should be introduced following the oil and gold futures inverse ETFs to protect against negative returns in a declining period of commodity prices.
Copper market outlook.
The purpose of this research is to present an Islamic monetary theory of value by analyzing real prices and real money in terms of gold and silver in Egypt from 696 to…
The purpose of this research is to present an Islamic monetary theory of value by analyzing real prices and real money in terms of gold and silver in Egypt from 696 to 1517, a period of 821 years from the Umayyads to the Abbasids.
This paper adopts a quantitative empirical investigation derived from a full population of secondary data to deductively evaluate the measure and store of value functions of money, to affirm an Islamic monetary theory of value, which is also inductively researched through a qualitative interpretation of documentary and content analysis of Islamic and numismatic literature.
The Islamic monetary theory of value leads to an Islamic equation of exchange that reconfirms the outcome of this research, where a high value of money ensures low constant real prices over the long term.
The findings are based on an empirical investigation involving a single price of wheat series as a reasonable proxy for changes in wholesale commodity prices generally, which was successfully adopted by other studies.
The significance for modern monetary policy is that monetary authorities should adopt an Islamic monetary theory of value to achieve genuine monetary and price stability.
Through an Islamic equation of exchange, price stability would ensure real economic growth that protects wealth for holders of money due to a stable purchasing power, and combined with Islamic equity finance, more efficiency in allocating investible resources to increase gross domestic product and employment.
The Islamic monetary theory of value ensures that there is no transfer or confiscation of wealth through inflation, which would impart gains to the issuer due to the excessive supply of money in relation to demand.
The copper market.
Quantitative easing (QE) allowed the US economy to stabilize and return to slow growth. Oil prices increased to $100 during 2010–2013. Then in June 2014, they plunged…
Quantitative easing (QE) allowed the US economy to stabilize and return to slow growth. Oil prices increased to $100 during 2010–2013. Then in June 2014, they plunged again dramatically to $40. The purpose of this paper is to develop and test a model that describes the price of oil as depending on six inputs: Federal assets accumulated by the Federal Reserve during the period of QE, the 10-Year Treasury note rate, the price of copper, the trade-weighted dollar, the S&P 500 Index and the US high yield rate for bonds rated CCC or below.
We use 771 overlapping 52-week regressions to capture short-run oil price dynamics.
We find that QE was statistically significant only during 2009–2010, while the US high yield rate played a more significant role, both during and after the crisis.
This paper does not explain the behavior of oil prices prior to 2003.
This paper emphasizes the role of the high yield rate on fracking technology in financing the extraction and production of oil.
The paper has both the theoretical value for researchers in the area of energy, as well as practical application for the oil industry.
The overall objective of this chapter is measuring the effect of key economic indicators and trends on the media reputation of an emergent country. The case analyzed is…
The overall objective of this chapter is measuring the effect of key economic indicators and trends on the media reputation of an emergent country. The case analyzed is that of Chile, since 1990–2015. To deal with our objective, we measured the media reputation of Chile following validated criteria by Deephouse (2000).
A regression analysis was conducted to test our hypothesis that the coefficient of media favorableness (CoMF) of a country depends on the favorable or unfavorable trend of key economic indicators of the country. The dependent variable of our model was the Chilean CoMF. Independent variables were the monthly GDP variation, the monthly unemployment rate, the monthly average of the stock exchange index, the monthly average fuel price, and the monthly average copper price (a very important commodity to Chile).
Our results demonstrate that key economic indicators have a significant positive bearing on the media reputation of an emergent country as Chile, that is, when an emergent country is doing well economically, the press with a global scope tends to improve the reputation of that country, showing a more favorable image about it. In consequence, our hypothesis is supported. In the case of an emergent and small Western country as Chile, the price of commodities appears as the most important predictive indicator of its favorable or unfavorable country reputation. Other implications are discussed in the study.
The clawback has helped it partially recover losses after a 29% crash on September 28, bringing total losses to around 70% this year. Yet doubts over CEO Ivan Glasenberg's…