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1 – 10 of 34The purpose is to market a reinterpretation of Brazilian economic history highlighting the importance of non-tradable goods to understand major historical developments such as the…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose is to market a reinterpretation of Brazilian economic history highlighting the importance of non-tradable goods to understand major historical developments such as the lack of industrialization in the mining boom; the rise and contribution of industries to development in the early 20th century; indexation as hyperinflation in the late 20th century; growth and cycles in the early 21st century.
Design/methodology/approach
Section 2 introduces analytical perspectives on the relationship between non-tradables, transport costs and external shocks. Section 3 presents a historical overview of the gold and coffee cycles in the Brazilian economy, which highlights the crucial role played by transport costs in the genesis of industrialization. Thus, in a more precise way, industrialization was not an import substitution process but the substitution of non-tradables by the domestic tradable manufactures.
Findings
Section 4 shows that Brazilian statistical records and historiography disregard this characterization and, to that extent, underestimate economic growth in the primary export phase (1872–1920) and overestimate growth rates in the industrialization period (1920–1940). Section 5 shifts to the end of the 20th century to analyze the relationship between non-tradables, indexation and hyperinflation. Section 6 concludes with a brief discussion of the role played by the terms of trade and non-tradables in the unfolding of the 2014 economic crisis.
Originality/value
Distance from international markets and a continental geographic size made transport costs in Brazil historically prohibitive: the relevance of non-tradables in the Brazilian economic history. While the theme is not new, it seldom received proper attention in the historiography.
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Ida Musialkowska, Agata Kliber, Katarzyna Świerczyńska and Paweł Marszałek
This paper aims to find, which of the assets: gold, oil or bitcoin can be considered a safe-haven for investors in a crisis-driven Venezuela. The authors look also at the…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to find, which of the assets: gold, oil or bitcoin can be considered a safe-haven for investors in a crisis-driven Venezuela. The authors look also at the governmental change of approach towards the use and mining of cryptocurrencies being one of the assets and potential applications of bitcoin as (quasi) money.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors collected the daily data (a period from 01 May 2014 to 31 July 2018) on the development of the following magnitudes: Caracas Stock Exchange main index: Índice Bursátil de Capitalisación (IBC) index; gold price in US dollars, the oil price in US dollars and Bitcoin price in bolivar fuerte (VEF) (LocalBitcoins). The authors estimated a threshold VAR model between IBC and each of the possible safe-haven assets, where the trigger variable was the IBC; then the authors modelled the residuals from the TVAR model using MGARCH model with dynamic conditional correlation.
Findings
The results show that that gold is a better safe-haven than oil for Venezuelan investors, while bitcoin can be considered a weak safe haven. Still, bitcoin can perform (to a certain extent) money functions in a crisis-driven country.
Research limitations/implications
Further research after the change of local currency from VEF into bolivar soberano might be looked at on the later stage.
Practical implications
The authors provide evidence on which of analysed asset is the best safe-haven for the investors acting in the time of the crisis. The evidence goes in line with other authors’ findings, thus, the results might bring implications for investors of more universal character. Additionally, the result might be helpful for governments and/or monetary authorities while projecting institutional frameworks and conducting monetary policy.
Social implications
The unprecedented economic crisis in Venezuela was one of the factors that fuelled the mining and use of cryptocurrencies in the daily life of its citizens. Nowadays, the country is a leader in terms of the use of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in Latin America. The results show a potential application of bitcoin as a store of value or even means of payments in Venezuelan (or in other countries affected by the crisis).
Originality/value
The paper builds on the original data set collected by the authors and brings evidence from the models the authors constructed to verify, which asset is the best option for investors in hard times of the crisis. The authors add to the existing literature on financial assets, cryptocurrencies and behaviour of investors under different economic conditions.
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This paper analyses the possibility of Latin America's (LA) major economies adopting dollarization, considering that in the last decade macroeconomic instability has once again…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper analyses the possibility of Latin America's (LA) major economies adopting dollarization, considering that in the last decade macroeconomic instability has once again challenged the ability of certain economies to properly manage their own currency.
Design/methodology/approach
To determine the feasibility of adopting the US dollar as official currency, the author uses the framework of optimum currency area (OCA) theory, since, in fact, dollarization is an incomplete monetary union. The author uses a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to identify what type of structural shock — country-specific, regional or global — prevails in LA economies. For this purpose, the US output is used to represent the global output and determine how the shocks of the US influence the output trajectory of each LA nation. The higher the influence of the US product, the lower the costs of adopting the US dollar.
Findings
The results of the variance decomposition show that the influence of the US shocks in the gross domestic product (GDP) trajectory of LA countries has significantly decreased over the last two decades, even in the currently dollarized economies. The estimates for Venezuela and Argentina show that the importance of US shocks in the trajectory of their GDP is low. Therefore, the cost of adopting the US dollar as the official currency would be high.
Originality/value
In view of hyperinflation and macroeconomic imbalances in certain LA nations, the dollarization debate has resurfaced in recent years. However, the literature that empirically evaluates the feasibility of adopting dollarization as a monetary system under current economic conditions is limited.
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Hugo Iasco-Pereira and Rafael Duregger
Our study aims to evaluate the impact of infrastructure and public investment on private investment in machinery and equipment in Brazil from 1947 to 2017. The contribution of our…
Abstract
Purpose
Our study aims to evaluate the impact of infrastructure and public investment on private investment in machinery and equipment in Brazil from 1947 to 2017. The contribution of our article to the existing literature lies in providing a more comprehensive understanding of the presence or absence of the crowding effect in the Brazilian economy by leveraging an extensive historical database. Our central argument posits that the recent decline in private capital accumulation over the last few decades can be attributed to shifts in economic policies – moving from a developmentalist orientation to nondevelopmental guidance since the early 1990s, which is reflected in the diminished levels of public investment and infrastructure since the 1980s.
Design/methodology/approach
We conducted a series of econometric regressions utilizing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model as our chosen econometric methodology.
Findings
Employing two different variables to measure public investment and infrastructure, our results – robust across various specifications – have substantiated the existence of a crowding-in effect in Brazil over the examined period. Thus, we have empirical evidence indicating that the state has influenced private capital accumulation in the Brazilian economy over the past decades.
Originality/value
Our article contributes to the existing literature by offering a more comprehensive understanding of the crowding effect in the Brazilian economy, utilizing an extensive historical database.
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Ismail Fasanya and Oluwatomisin Oyewole
As financial markets for environmentally friendly investment grow in both scope and size, analyzing the relationship between green financial markets and African stocks becomes an…
Abstract
Purpose
As financial markets for environmentally friendly investment grow in both scope and size, analyzing the relationship between green financial markets and African stocks becomes an important issue. Therefore, this paper examines the role of infectious disease-based uncertainty on the dynamic spillovers between African stock markets and clean energy stocks.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors employ the dynamic spillover in time and frequency domains and the nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach over the period of November 30, 2010, to August 18, 2021.
Findings
These findings are discernible in this study's analysis. First, the authors find evidence of strong connectedness between the African stock markets and the clean energy market, and long-lived but weak in the short and medium investment horizons. Second, the BDS test shows that nonlinearity is crucial when examining the role of infectious disease-based equity market volatility in affecting the interactions between clean energy stocks and African stock markets. Third, the causal analysis provides evidence in support of a nonlinear causal relationship between uncertainties due to infectious diseases and the connection between both markets, mostly at lower and median quantiles.
Originality/value
Considering the global and recent use of clean energy equities and the stock markets for hedging and speculative purposes, one may argue that rising uncertainties may significantly influence risk transmissions across these markets. This study, therefore, is the first to examine the role of pandemic uncertainty on the connection between clean stocks and the African stock markets.
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